US Equity and Bond investors had a tough day.  The reason?  According to most pundits, the proximate cause was the S&P downgrade of UK debt.  Many observers decided that the US might be next. Bill Gross of PIMCO weighed in. The United States will face a downgrade in "at least three to four years, if that, but the market will recognize the problems before the rating services -- just like it did today," Gross told Reuters. Accrued Interest writes in this article, Bill Gross:  Do you trust him? as follows: Enter Bill Gross, always eager to talk his position. He stokes the fire by saying that the Treasury market is selling off due to ratings fears. Maybe. Indeed, I've heard that Asia is selling today. But always remember, when Bill Gross talks, he is always ...

One of the strongest features of a trading system is that it forces the user to look beyond the human interpretation of data.  Evaluating systems can be done through appropriately designed tests.  Evaluating human management is nearly impossible.  There is never enough data, and circumstances change.  Even Warren Buffett is now drawing criticism. A system forces one to re-examine fundamental principles, looking for possible exceptions. Let us suppose for a moment that there is a divergence between our expectations -- for the economy, for profits, and for stocks -- and the general market perception.  With a long enough time horizon, an investor can, and perhaps should, act upon those expectations.  Even so, it would be even better to time entry points to coincide with the changing market. Our trading method, looking at Trends, Cycles, and including a bit of Anticipation, considers which ETF's ...