GoldDrivers 2009 – Extraordinary Bullish Outlook for Gold

By: Eric Hommelberg ldSeek.com

It sure has been a brutal year for gold and its shares and many may wonder if the $1030 top clocked in March 2008 marked the top for the gold bull market that started in April 2001. Despite the fact that many analysts want you to believe that gold has failed to act as a

Feel like getting angry? Treasury publishes latest debt/deficit details… But Fed now encouraged to intervene more… latest data show historic inflation drop… How to invest accordingly? Burritt on near-term trading, Grantham on the long haul… Byron King explains why $40 oil is “worst of both worlds”… Bill Jenkins explains the dollar’s recent downturn… Plus, the Dububble expands… refrigerated beaches on UAE shores…

However dire you think U.S. government’s fiscal condition has become… today we learn it’s even worse. For starters, would you invest in this business?

2008 fiscal year net operating cost: $1 trillion. Triple that of 2007. And those aren’t funky alternative accounting methods… today’s charts and numbers come directly from the 2008 Financial Report of the U.S. Government, issued yesterday.

What is “net cost”? It is “computed by subtracting earned revenue

The Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported that nonfarm payrolls fell by a whopping 533,000 jobs in November, and the official government-approved unemployment rate rose from 6.5 to 6.7%.

There is more New Bad News (NBN) contained in November’s drop in payroll employment because, “Job losses were large and widespread across the major industry sectors in November.”

The New Bad News (NBN) to me personally is that this means that if I get fired again, then another job will be that much harder to find, especially since my job skills are apparently substandard, as I father from my current boss being sure that she can train a monkey to do my job and, as she said, “It will probably have better personal hygiene, too!”

Since experience has shown that I am not a “people person”, service industry jobs are especially difficult for me, and there always comes a

Currencies trade in a tight range…  China…  Commodity prices to blame…  “Safe” Treasuries? And Now… Today’s Pfennig! Good day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Well… I went “shopping” yesterday evening… At least I can say I did my bit to keep the economy afloat! HA! Thanks to all who sent along notes to me yesterday with kind words. I truly appreciate the kind words, you are all too kind! The automakers made their pleas to Congress yesterday, and they claim they are in deep dookie! GM says they need $4 Billion right now! And… The original $25 Billion figure has grown to $35 to $40 Billion…

The currencies were lifeless yesterday, with only

Tuesday was the third day in a row that gold and silver got sold off as soon as trading began in the Far East…and as I write this, Wednesday morning in Asia is shaping up the same way. Gold was down about $15 when the Comex opened in New York on Tuesday…and a ferocious $25 rally (tech funds?) got stopped dead in its tracks at precisely 9:00 a.m. Eastern time…the second day in a row it didn’t get past $830 the ounce. Silver’s fate was similar. Both sold off from there and both finished basically unchanged from Monday. The HUI traded as low as 218…but managed to tack a 5% gain onto that number to close in slightly positive territory for the day.

Monday’s open interest numbers were interesting. Gold open interest fell 5,533 contracts to 282,978…another new low. One would think that it should have gone up with the gold

If the new president looked a little, well, burdened on election night, chances are he’s aging a couple of years in the six-hour span between the release of unemployment figures this morning and his first news conference as president-elect this afternoon.

6.5% unemployment in October — worst since early Clintontime.  Worse still were the revisions of the August and September numbers.  And as Karl Denninger noticed, the number of unemployed plus the number of people working part-time who’d like to work full-time now tops 11%.  (And who knows what the real figure would turn out to be once John Williams applies Carter-era standards to the numbers.)

As I write, the president-elect is meeting with his “Transition Economic Advisory Board,” his temporary brain trust as it were.  The names on the panel are, well, interesting.  Some of the faces from I.O.U.S.A. are there.  But one has to wonder if

Stocks stage huge rally, but will it hold? Key levels to watch, and some historic perspective… Libor continues to ease; famous Wall Street CEO explains why credit still isn’t flowing… John Williams on the “true cost” of the U.S. financial crisis, with charts to prove it… Byron King with an “exploding” foreign resource market…. Plus, a stinging critique of I.O.U.S.A., and one thing you must do before voting Nov. 4.

The Dow logged its second best one-day point gain, 889 points, in its even more storied history yesterday:

Percentage wise, at 10.8%, the rally ranks sixth. The S&P and Nasdaq trundled alongside the old lady like puppies.

After finding a new “credit crisis” low on Monday, traders on Wall Street snapped back with vengeance. But it’s not the higher highs we’ll

On Thursday, the Federal Reserve issued its weekly H.4.1 report, which provides details of the Fed's balance sheet. Once upon a time, this was one of the least interesting of the government's many releases of data. These days, it's become one of the most exciting.

The essence of the Fed's balance sheet used to be quite simple. The Fed's primary operations would consist of either buying outstanding Treasury securities or issuing loans to banks through its discount window. It paid for these transactions by creating credits in accounts that banks hold with the Federal Reserve, known as reserve deposits. Banks can turn those reserves into green cash any time they desire, so the process is sometimes loosely summarized as saying that the Fed pays for the Treasury bills it buys or loans it extends by "printing money". Before the excitement began, the Fed's assets

Last month I called attention to an analysis by BLS researchers John Greenlees and Robert McClelland of some of the claims by John Williams of Shadowstats about the consequences for reported inflation of assorted technical decisions made by the BLS. Williams asked me to update with a link to his response to the BLS study. I am happy to do so, along with offering some further observations of my own.

You can follow the link to Shadowstats’ response to Greenlees and McClelland and judge for yourself, but my impression is that the response is more philosophical than quantitative. In a separate phone conversation, Williams further clarified the Shadowstats methodology. Here’s what John said to me:

I’m not going back and recalculating the CPI. All I’m doing is going back to the government’s estimates of what the effect would be and using that

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Source: Jeff Clark, Casey Research  09/02/2008
Psychologists say decisions aren’t made simply on what you hear from others but also on what you hear in your own inner dialog. With investing, that can be the kiss of death if you let either fear or euphoria dominate the conversation.

So what did you tell yourself this summer when gold plummeted 20% in 5 weeks and most gold stocks lost a third or more of their value? Did the dialog help you make a wise decision?

I’ll tell you what I told myself. When I saw a chart of gold’s mid-summer drop, it looked scary…

…then I told myself to take a longer look at gold’s history.

What I saw is that gold’s recent drop is a blip in the big picture. So I told myself, “Maybe you should relax a little.”

Then I thought about corrections in past gold bull …