Harry Dent: Bold Predictions of the Great Depression Ahead

by Alexander Green, Chief Investment Strategist Monday, October 6, 2009: Issue #1108

As they said in the movie “Poltergeist”: “They’re baaa-aaack.”

Who’s back? Harry Dent, the self-styled “economic futurist,” who presumes to tell us about the great economic booms and busts that lie ahead.

How can he possibly know these things?

According to Dent, an analysis of the “highly predictable” nature of consumer spending based on demographic trends – increasing spending during child-rearing years, peak spending as the kids leave home and slower spending during late work and retirement – reveals what lies ahead for the economy and the stock market…

Harry Dent: Dow 44,000 & Other Flimsy Forecasts

Harry Dent is a man worth listening to. After all, he has a near perfect track record – as a contrary indicator…

For example:

With less than auspicious timing, Dent ...

Another 430%+ Gain in AIG

We’ve booked a number of solid gains from American International Group’s (NYSE: AIG) rebirth recently. Earlier this year we recommended that investors take a page out of legendary investor John Templeton’s playbook and pick up the Price Wimps of the S&P 500.

Readers were rewarded just 10 days later with a 437% return on AIG.

Last month we highlighted AIG again because it’s stock price had become seriously depressed after it’s reverse split. In As AIG Sinks, Its Value Rises we suggested picking up some shares below $8.5.

Some investors could have turned that around in just three days for a 25% gain as AIG Gives Big Bonuses to Investors. But AIG wasn’t done.

With AIG’s jump this morning, investors could be sitting on their second 430%+ gain

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Why Most Investment Systems Simply Won’t Work

by Alexander Green, Advisory Panelist Wednesday, August 12, 2009: Issue #1064

Early in my 16-year career on Wall Street, I made an astonishing discovery: The overwhelming majority of my colleagues – bright, educated, experienced, and articulate – didn’t have the foggiest idea what they were talking about.

This only became obvious in retrospect, when I saw how their carefully constructed financial theories and investment forecasts turned to dust rather than generating any significant profits.

(You’d be surprised to learn, for example, how many investment “pros” lose a substantial percentage of their own money in the market each year.)

The truth is that there are virtually limitless ways to take a beating in stocks – and only a few methods that work well over time. These methods are generally codified into widely accepted investment principles,

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Value Investing: Following in The Footsteps of Sir John Templeton

by Alexander Green, Advisory Panelist

Last week I had a chance to speak with hundreds of investors at FreedomFest in Las Vegas.

I can tell you that the mood out there right now is unremittingly bleak. And when it comes to value investing, that’s cause for celebration. Here’s why…

Analysts will tell you that stocks only reach bargain levels when they are cheap relative to sales, earnings and book value. But here’s how to know when stocks are cheap without looking at a single number:

It’s when people are apoplectic about their stock portfolios. It’s when they are gloomiest about the prospects for the economy. It’s when they wish they had never met their stockbroker.

That’s when stocks are truly cheap. So that’s when it pays to buy them…

Sir John Templeton - Value Investing Through Maximum Pessimism

Sir John Templeton, the man who

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AIG Gives Big Bonuses to Investors

by The Investment U Research Team

On Friday morning, we talked about how interesting American International Group (NYSE: AIG) was getting in “As AIG Sinks, It’s Value Rises.” We didn’t have to wait long for reaction. By the end of the day, it was up over 20% and this morning we’re seeing another 25%.

In fact, anyone jumping in early Friday morning when our issue went out is looking at over 70% in two days – Not bad at all.

Apparently, we weren’t the only ones looking at AIG as a bargain – even with the hubbub over AIG’s bonuses and lack of equity. The ones really getting bonuses at AIG were the investors from Friday morning.

The bigger question now is how big a rebound we’ll see over the next couple of days, and is

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As AIG Sinks, Its Value Rises

by The Investment U Research Team

American International Group (NYSE: AIG) has been taking a beating over the past two weeks, and even with its recent 20-1 reverse stock split, it’s been headed back down.

So far in fact, that we’re getting close to the price we talked about on March 9 – $.35 (or split adjusted $7.00).

At that time, we recommended readers go the route of John Templeton and pick up some penny stocks in the S&P 500. Moreover, just ten days later readers who jumped in were rewarded with a 437% gain.

We could be setting up for a similar situation.

The stock split does change the dynamics – mostly emotional – of the current stock plunge. Investors feel better about selling at $9.00 than they did

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The Philosophy of Money: What It Means to Be Truly Wealthy

by Alexander Green, Oxford Club Investment Director

As a young man in my twenties, I worked as a stockbroker in a local firm. Before long I was earning a six-figure income. Then came the brand-spanking-new lakefront house, the ski boat, the Jaguar XJ-6, and all the other toys.

I saved virtually nothing. When my friends came over for parties - which were frequent - most of them assumed I was rich.

I was nothing of the sort, I hadn’t learned about the true philosophy of money.

Wealth is not the same thing as income. If you earn a lot of money and blow it every year, you’re not rich. You’re just living high.

Wealth is what you accumulate, not what you earn. And it certainly can’t be measured by what you spend.

How does the average person get rich?

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Insights from Jeremy Siegel: 3 Reasons Why The Dow Will Hit 10,000 in 2009

by Dr. Mark Skousen, Advisory Panelist

Wall Street has been debating the huge run-up in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

Was March the beginning of a huge rally that will take the market to new highs? Have we witnessed the proverbial “dead-cat bounce?” The prognosticators have been unsure, uncertain and uncommittal about what they see coming next…

So let me make it clear where I stand: We are in the beginning of a new bull market that will carry us to 10,000 on the Dow by year’s-end - and new highs within a couple of years.

Yes, the recovery will be volatile. But now is the time to buy, despite the big run up…

No doubt there’s plenty of bad news out there - rising unemployment with no end in sight, threatened tax increases on capital gains

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a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_VQGtBvsQTCg/SgBvsHu0zsI/AAAAAAAAApY/G0SiVsAj-1o/s1600-h/gone+fishin.jpg"img style="margin: 0pt 0pt 10px 10px; float: right; cursor: pointer; width: 132px; height: 200px;" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_VQGtBvsQTCg/SgBvsHu0zsI/AAAAAAAAApY/G0SiVsAj-1o/s200/gone+fishin.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5332384762587041474" border="0" //abr /divToday's book review is span style="font-style: italic;"The Gone Fishin' Portfolio/span by Alexander Green. Mr. Green is the investment Director of The Oxford Club, as well as Chairman of Investment U. /divbr /div /divThe span style="font-style: italic;"Gone Fishin' Portfolio/span is a clear and concise read. It is written for the individual investor who has limited to moderate financial knowledge. And lets face it, this is a huge audience. He says it best in the introduction, "No one cares more about your money than you do." Its a simple sentence, but its so true.br /divbr /The book is broken down into three parts: 1) Get Wise; 2) Get Wealthy; and 3) Get On With Your Life.br /br /It starts with why you should ...

Using Exchange-Traded Funds: How to Put Your Index Mutual Fund on Steroids

by Dr. Scott Brown, Advisory Panelist

It seems we’ve been talking about bottoms and whether we reached it yet for quite some time. But this talk will shift soon to the “now what” questions of what to buy when we do reach that magical point.

Many will shun individual stocks for the safety of mutual funds. And with the explosion of index funds, we’ve never had a larger variety of options to help us diversify. These index funds are designed to yield a return equal to that of a particular index. They allow you to purchase a variety of assets as a low-cost, passive-investment strategy. And there are a number of indexes that specify sectors, stock indexes and international markets.

It’s a powerful strategy that allows you to slice and dice the global economy in a risk-managed approach. But

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