William Sterling of Trilogy Global Advisors has an interesting new paper on the abrupt changes in financial markets subsequent to Lehman's bankruptcy on September 15, 2008.

Sterling's paper is in part a response to earlier analyses by John Taylor (2008, 2009) and John Cochrane and Luigi Zingales who noted that the spread between the LIBOR interest rate (London Interbank Offered Rate) and the OIS (Overnight Index Swap) rose only gradually following the Lehman bankruptcy, leading these scholars to see Lehman as just one of many relevant developments at the time. But Sterling questions the meaningfulness of the LIBOR or OIS indicators during these weeks given that markets seized up and little trading activity was occurring in these instruments. Sterling instead proposes to take a look at Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index, which Bloomberg launched in August 2008. The index is based in part on

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By David Papell

Today, we're fortunate to have David Papell, Professor of Economics at University of Houston, as a guest contributor.

The Federal Open Market Committee voted last Wednesday to keep the federal funds target rate at a record low of between zero and 0.25 percent. If it was not constrained by the zero lower bound, should the federal funds rate be negative? If the answer is yes, this suggests that the rate should remain at its record low for a considerable period and provides a justification for continued increases in the Fed's balance sheet. If the answer is no, then the Fed may need to raise its interest rate target sooner rather than later.

There has been a lively debate on this topic in the context of the Taylor rule for monetary policy. The debate started with an article in the Financial

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The just-concluded Group 20 (G20) meeting left us with a chorus of very “prudent” governments and central bankers singing the praises of easy monetary and fiscal conditions. So where can we take refuge when all the central banks in the world print money and governments run deficits in order to spend like drunken sailors? The answer is gold.

Fortunately for us, we foresaw this scenario a while ago. On April 20, I recommended that investors diversify their portfolios by adding the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSE: GLD).  The fund is up about 14% since that recommendation, but it’s not yet time to sell, as there are still a number of factors working in gold’s favor.

For starters, there is more and more talk of the U.S. dollar losing some of its luster as a reserve currency.  But this debate is moot for the moment.  The reality is

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This post provides links to a number of thought-provoking articles I have read over the past few days that you may also find of interest. Please also add the links to any other thought-provoking articles you would like to share to the comments section.

• Paul Marson (Financial Times): Cause for caution on US earnings, August 12, 2009. The US second-quarter earning season is now ending, apparently on a good note as nearly three quarters of US companies have beaten consensus expectations. But a closer look at these earnings shows there is cause to be more cautious about the health of corporate America than the headline numbers would suggest. The cloud of euphoria that followed recent results had more to do with extraordinarily low expectations, than to any meaningful and lasting improvement in prospects, which still require a rapid recovery in economic activity. This suggests

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This post provides links to a number of interesting articles I have read over the past few days that you may also enjoy. Please also add the links to any other thought-provoking articles you would like to share to the comments section.

• Paul Krugman (The New York Times): Averting the worst, August 9, 2009. So it seems that we aren’t going to have a second Great Depression after all. What saved us? The answer, basically, is Big Government.

• Niall Ferguson (Financial Times): A runaway deficit may soon test Obama’s luck, August 10, 2009. Six months in, “Felix the Prez” still has the look of a lucky, two-term president. But that could change if voters become even more disenchanted with the legislative branch and start blaming the president for the looming fiscal train-wreck.

• Simon Johnson (The Baseline Scenario):

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This post provides links to a number of thought-provoking articles I have read over the past few days that you may also find interesting.

• Richard Bernstein (Financial Times): America is for now still blowing bubbles, July 20, 2009. By preserving capacity to avoid taking pain today, the US is following the approach that led Japan into a lost decade.

• Kenneth Scott and John Taylor (The Wall Street Journal): Why toxic assets are so hard to clean up, July 21, 2009. Despite trillions of dollars of new government programs, one of the original causes of the financial crisis — the toxic assets on bank balance sheets — still persists and remains a serious impediment to economic recovery. Why are these toxic assets so difficult to deal with? We believe their sheer complexity is the core problem and that only increased transparency will

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That's the title of a chapter I contributed to a new book edited by John Ciorciari and John Taylor entitled The Road Ahead for the Fed. The book grew out of a conference held at Stanford University in March.

In my chapter (a draft of which can be obtained here), I review the mechanics of what the Fed has been doing with its balance sheet, and then raise three concerns. One of my concerns is that the Fed's new balance sheet has compromised the independence of the central bank:

The decision of where public funds are best allocated is inherently political. Any risks on the Fed's new balance sheet are ultimately borne by the taxpayers. The U.S. Constitution specifies that decisions of how public funds get spent shall be up to Congress, and with good reason. Citizens have a right to vote on

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By Edward Hugh: Barcelonabr /br /blockquote"As long as excessive debt is not digested, both monetary and fiscal policies are inefficient. There is not much of an alternative. Either to let the economy collapse, in order to reduce debts, and then use fiscal policy to revive it, or inundate the insolvent economy with public credit, to avoid the collapse, and loose the ability of fiscal policy to pull it out of a prolonged lethargy. Either a horrible end or an endless horror."br /a href="http://blogs.ft.com/maverecon/2009/06/after-the-crisis-macro-imbalance-credibility-and-reserve-currency/"After the Crisis: Macro Imbalance, Credibility and Reserve-Currency/a: André Lara Resende/blockquotebr /Well, I think the title to this post makes my view on the high-profile shenanigans we are currently witnessing on the part of two widely respected contemporary intellectuals clear enough, even if Paul would probably respond that he is perfectly well able to take care of himself, thank you very much. Nonetheless, looking at the way the ...

This post provides links to some thought-provoking articles I have read over the past few days that you may also find of interest.

• Randall Forsyth (Barron’s): The market’s formula: a square-root rally, June 4, 2009. After nailing a 40% surge since early March, Doug Kass sees “potholes” in the road ahead.

• Donald Luskin (SmartMoney): Good news has arrived for investors, June 5, 2009. Three months ago, within days of the bottom in stocks, aggregate forward earnings started to turn around. It was less than a ringing endorsement at first. It just meant that the decline in earnings was now expected to get less bad - not that earnings would actually grow. But it was a perfect buy signal. And now aggregate forward earnings are on the verge of forecasting that earnings growth is back. It’s a buy signal. And if the pattern holds,

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This post provides links to some thought-provoking articles I have read over the past few days that you may also find of interest.

• Paul McCulley (Pimco - Global Central Bank Focus): The shadow banking system and Hyman Minsky’s economic journey, May 2009. As we look for answers about the current financial crisis, it’s clear that creative financing played a massive role in propelling the global financial system to hazy new heights - before leading the way into the depths of a systemic crisis. But how did financing get so creative? It didn’t happen within the confines of a regulated banking system, which submits to strict regulatory requirements in exchange for the safety of government backstopping. Instead, financing got so creative through the rise of a “shadow banking system,” which operated legally, yet almost completely outside the realm of bank regulation. The rise of this system drove

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