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Investment News Briefs Wednesday, May 13, 2009

Contrarian Profits (May 13th, 2009) Writes:

Home Prices Record Plunge; U.S. Trade Gap Grows; Social Security Funds Running Out Early; Citigroup Lends Most TARP Money; Big Shipper Maersk Posts Loss; EU To Do Bank Stress Tests

U.S. home prices posted their biggest drop on record during the first quarter, with the median price falling 14% to $169,000 from a year earlier, the National Association of Realtors said. Prices fell in 134 of 152 metropolitan areas, with values plunging the most in Florida and California. The U.S. trade deficit grew 5.5% to a smaller-than- forecast $27.6 billion, dropping for the first time in eight months.  The gap widened as exports slumped to a two-year low, overwhelming shrinking imports, reflecting reduced American demand for goods made abroad. The report buoyed hopes that a record contraction in global trade flows may be easing. “It’s ...

Dollar Rises Against Euro

Doug Casey (May 6th, 2009) Writes:

In the currency market, the dollar rallied against the euro. Late Tuesday, the euro was trading at $1.3319 vs. $1.3365 on Monday.

“Optimistic comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and a slower pace of contraction in the service sector have helped to drive the U.S. dollar higher,” said Kathy Lien, director of currency research at Global Forex Trading.

The Institute of Supply Management reported yesterday that its non-manufacturing (services industry) index improved to 43.7% from 40.8% in March. While readings below 50% still indicate contraction, it was the index’s first increase since January.

The gain beat the expectations of economists, who had been projecting the index to rise only to 42%.

“This report is an encouraging sign that the intensity of the recession is diminishing,” wrote John Ryding and Conrad DeQuadros of RDQ Economics.

And Big Ben chipped in with: “The recent data … suggest that the pace of contraction may be slowing,

...

As the Economy Worsens, Experts Call for Obama to Focus on the Fundamentals

Contrarian Profits (March 9th, 2009) Writes:

In sports, championship-caliber teams all have at least one characteristic in common: They’re able to focus on the fundamentals.

With the U.S. unemployment rate jumping to its highest level  in a quarter century in February, it’s become abundantly clear that that the U.S. recession is much deeper than President Barack Obama anticipated, meaning it’s likely that additional measures will be undertaken to arrest the slide and restart growth.

Many experts are now calling for the Obama administration to focus on the fundamentals – fundamental economics, that is. They want him to drop some of its ancillary pet projects – such as healthcare reform – and are telling President Obama to focus all his time and the government’s resources on three things:

Arresting the economy’s slide. Hastening its subsequent rebound. And fixing the U.S. banking system.

A focus on anything else is just a diversion and is a waste of time – especially because  there are

...

As the Economy Worsens, Experts Call for Obama to Focus on the Fundamentals

William Patalon (March 9th, 2009) Writes:
In sports, championship-caliber teams all have at least one characteristic in common: They’re able to focus on the fundamentals. With the U.S. unemployment rate jumping to its highest level  in a quarter century in February, it’s become abundantly clear that that the U.S. recession is much deeper than President Barack Obama anticipated, meaning it’s likely that additional measures will be undertaken to arrest the slide and restart growth. Many experts are now calling for the Obama administration to focus on the fundamentals – fundamental economics, that is. They want him to drop some of its ancillary pet projects – such as healthcare reform – and are telling President Obama to focus all his time and the government’s resources on three things: Arresting the economy’s slide. Hastening its subsequent rebound. And fixing the U.S. banking system. A focus on anything else is just a diversion and is a ...

Stocks Fall, ADP Report Says U.S. Shed 693,000 Jobs in December

Contrarian Profits (January 8th, 2009) Writes:

The U.S. economy shed 693,000 jobs in December, a showing that was far worse than economists had expected and that may even have been the biggest monthly loss of jobs in more than 30 years, analysts said of a closely watched survey of business employment released yesterday (Tuesday).

The monthly ADP Employer Services (ADP) survey - which tracks private non-farm payroll employment - stunned economists, showing a surprising increase from the 476,000 jobs lost in November.

The decline was the worst in the history of the survey, which began reporting in 2001. And if the findings are matched by the official government jobs report, due out Friday, it would be the biggest employment drop since the U.S. recession of 1975.

This is an eye-poppingly bad number,” Art Hogan, the New York-based chief market analyst at Jefferies & Co. (JEF), told Bloomberg News. “The economy is in

...

Fed to Cut Rates, U.S. Recession Appears Likely

Contrarian Profits (October 28th, 2008) Writes:

The U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to cut rates tomorrow (Wednesday), possibly in conjunction with central bank counterparts in Europe, as fears of a global recession have intensified. However, the Fed has little room to maneuver as its benchmark Federal Funds rate is already at 2% and analysts remain skeptical that reducing it any further keep the United States from sliding into a prolonged recession.

The next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee is scheduled for tomorrow Wednesday Oct. 29. There is no doubt that growth will be the central issue of the committee’s discussion, as fears of a global recession are intensifying alongside deteriorating economic data.

The British Office for National Statistics’ said Friday that, after a flat second quarter, U.K. gross domestic product (GDP) contracted 0.5% in the three months ended Sept. 30. There’s little doubt that other European nations have already succumbed to recession, and the near

...

Fed to Cut Rates at Next FOMC Meeting as U.S. Recession Appears Likely

Money Morning (October 28th, 2008) Writes:
The U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to cut rates tomorrow (Wednesday), possibly in conjunction with central bank counterparts in Europe, as fears of a global recession have intensified. However, the Fed has little room to maneuver as its benchmark Federal Funds rate is already at 2% and analysts remain skeptical that reducing it any further keep the United States from sliding into a prolonged recession. The next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee is scheduled for tomorrow Wednesday Oct. 29. There is no doubt that growth will be the central issue of the committee’s discussion, as fears of a global recession are intensifying alongside deteriorating economic data. The British Office for National Statistics’ said Friday that, after a flat second quarter, U.K. gross domestic product (GDP) contracted 0.5% in the three months ended Sept. 30. There’s little doubt that other European ...

Slowdown in Consumer Spending Could Lead to Recession by Year-End

Money Morning (August 31st, 2008) Writes:
Consumer spending, responsible for the bulk of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP), slowed in July as the effects of the government’s stimulus package tapered off. The Commerce Department announced that consumer spending grew at a 0.2% rate in July. But on an inflation-adjusted basis, consumer spending dropped 0.4%, as high prices took their toll on the household budgets of strapped consumers. "The temporary impact of the stimulus has passed, and it looks like consumer spending is on track to decline in real terms in the third quarter," John Ryding, the chief economist at RDQ Economics, told The New York Times. "It’s certainly a wake-up call to people who [Thursday] looked at the GDP report and said, ‘Hey, the economy grew by 3.3%, so everything’s O.K.’ " With consumer spending on the decline, the U.S. economy is unlikely to match the pace of ...

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