By Jason Simpkins Associate Editor Payrolls tumbled for the sixth consecutive month in June, bringing the total number of job losses in the first half of the year to 438,000. Such a steep drop in employment could easily cause consumer spending to falter in the months ahead and drag the economy into a recession. After shedding 62,000 jobs in May, U.S. employers slashed another 62,000 jobs in June, the Labor Department said last week. Builders reduced payrolls by 43,000 after cutting 37,000 employees in May. Financial firms cut 10,000 jobs in June after losing 3,000 the month prior. And factory payrolls dropped by 33,000 after declining 22,000 in May. The national unemployment rate has gone up by a full percentage point in the past year, hitting 5.5% in May. The country added 91,000 on average in 2007, but has lost an average of ...

Too severe, or not too severe; that is the question.

I’m talking about the U.S. recession that we’re already in, about to be in, or hoping to avoid.

At this point it depends a lot on how you approach the subject, but assuming for a moment that recession is inevitable, analysts and economists are asking: How much will growth contract? Can Mr. U.S. consumer muddle through, or will he stumble and fall? And how much have financial markets already discounted an official recession?

Today, I’ll answer these questions and tell you what to expect in the currency markets, namely the U.S. dollar. First, let’s address …

HOW to Identify a Recession

Unfortunately, pinpointing the magnitude and velocity of a recession before it has ended isn’t as easy as measuring the change in …