Michael Dueker is a senior portfolio strategist at Russell Investments and formerly was an assistant vice president in the Research Department at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Michael is also a member of the Blue Chip forecasting panel. In early February 2008, Michael submitted a piece to Econbrowser that correctly predicted the onset of the current recession, using a model-based forecast. We are pleased that that he is now presenting forecasts from the same Qual VAR model concerning the recession's trough date and the magnitude of a jobless recovery to follow, subject to the disclaimer that the content is the responsibility of the author and does not represent official positions of Russell Investments and does not constitute investment advice.

Current business cycle forecasts see a July or August 2009 trough and a jobless recovery until March 2010

by Michael Dueker

In analyzing the current recession, it is

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There is so much chaff floating around about the roles of Fannie and Freddie and of the Community Reinvestment Act in the current crisis, despite the best efforts of economists like Jim Hamilton [0] [1], Mark Thoma and Janet Yellen, that it seems worthwhile to once again go through some of the arguments that have been forwarded.

From David Goldstein and Kevin G. Hall, "Private sector loans, not Fannie or Freddie, triggered crisis":

Federal Reserve Board data show that:

More than 84 percent of the subprime mortgages in 2006 were issued by private lending institutions. Private firms made nearly 83 percent of the subprime loans to low- and moderate-income borrowers that year. Only one of the top 25 subprime lenders in 2006 was directly subject to the housing law that's being lambasted by conservative critics. From David Goldstein and Kevin ...

FIN 48FIN 48 + Implementation & DisclosuresA growing chorus of hedge fund and private equity groups has asked FASB for an exemption from FIN 48, a FASB interpretation of a standard on accounting for income taxes. In a letter to FASB, the Managed Funds Association said that the sophisticated investors that invest in hedge funds do not need the enhanced disclosures that FIN 48 was designed to provide. In its letter, the Private Company Financial Reporting Committee stated that private company financial statement users find the accounting matters and disclosures encompassed by FIN 48 to be largely irrelevant to their decision making. The committee’s also noted that FASB and the IASB are working on a convergence project on accounting for income taxes and that this may significantly affect FIN 48. Thus, if FASB is ...

Article Source: There's been a lot of discussion recently about the effects of high gasoline prices on the quantity demanded of gasoline, as well driving behavior (Jim Hamilton, Jim Hamilton, CR, CR, Paul Krugman). David Austin, whose work I have cited often on this blog, gave a fascinating presentation, entitled "Effects of Gasoline Prices on Driving Behavior and Vehicle Choice" at the recent Society of Government Economists conference in Washington, DC a couple of weeks ago. In it, he tackles some of these issues. (Note, these are his own personal views and do not necessarily represent the views of any specific organization.) I could discuss each of the graphs in detail, but I think I will let them speak for themselves. Figure 1: Gasoline consumption has declined as prices have increased. Source: D. Austin, Presentation at SGE, June 2, 2008....