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Fed Minutes: Signs of Improvement – Analyst Blog

Charles Rotblut (May 20th, 2009) Writes:
Highlights include Zions Bancorporation (ZION), J.C. Penney Co., Inc. (JCP) and Nordstrom, Inc. (JWN).The minutes of the Apr 28-29 Fed meeting confirmed what many of us have been observing -- the rate of economic deterioration is slowing.In describing the economy, meeting participants opined, "The pace of decline in some components of final demand appeared to have slowed recently." In layman's terms, this means the economy is still going downhill, but as not as quickly as before.Because of this, the Fed revised its forecast for economic growth to reflect a comparatively more optimistic outlook. The central bank expects real GDP to "edge higher in the second half and then increase moderately next year."However, the Fed also warned that growth would be restrained over the foreseeable future. It particularly cited financial services and housing as sectors that "might well account for ...

Chrysler, GM Dealer Cuts Point to More Rough Times Ahead for U.S. Automakers

William Patalon (May 20th, 2009) Writes:

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Just days after Chrysler LLC said it would be cutting one quarter of its auto dealerships, 1,100 General Motors Corp. (NYSE: GM) dealerships have reportedly been told not to expect a relationship with the embattled U.S. carmaker after October 2010.

GM dealers targeted for separation were informed by

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Chrysler, GM Dealer Cuts Point to More Rough Times Ahead for U.S. Automakers

Contrarian Profits (May 18th, 2009) Writes:

Just days after Chrysler LLC said it would be cutting one quarter of its auto dealerships, 1,100 General Motors Corp. (NYSE: GM) dealerships have reportedly been told not to expect a relationship with the embattled U.S. carmaker after October 2010.

GM dealers targeted for separation were informed by letter over the weekend, Reuters reported.

The eradication of hundreds of hundreds of American auto dealerships is merely the latest development in the ongoing dismantling of the so-called U.S. “Big Three’’ – a  process that seems likely to leave Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) as the last American automaker standing.

“These companies are making up for now for what they have avoided doing for years, if not decades,” industry analyst John A. Casesa, managing partner of consultantcy Casesa Shapiro Group LLC, told The New York Times. “And if the

...
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April Retail Sales – Another Take – Analyst Blog

Zacks Market Commentaries (May 13th, 2009) Writes:
Highlights include JC Penney Co., Inc. (JCP), Macy's, Inc. (M), Cost Plus, Inc. (CPWM), Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (WMT) and Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST).This morning the U.S. Census Bureau announced that April retail sales declined 0.4% vs. expectations of 0.0%; retail sales (ex-auto) declined 0.5% vs. expectations of +0.2%. March retail sales were revised lower.Department stores, electronics, food/beverages, furniture, and online all experienced sales declines in April. Restaurants, sporting goods, health/personal care, and building materials all saw gains in April. On a year-over-year basis, retail sales fell 11.4% in April. The market was clearly disappointed by this news.This was the second straight monthly drop in retail sales, and the eighth decline in the last ten months. Recall that retail sales increased in January and February, and the equity market gravitated to the idea that consumer spending bottomed out in the ...

Retail Turning Tail Again – Analyst Blog

Dirk Van Dijk (May 13th, 2009) Writes:

Highlights include Macy's Inc. (M), J.C. Penney Co., Inc. (JCP), Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (WMT) and Family Dollar Stores, Inc. (FDO). The bounce in Retail sales we saw in January is starting to look more and more like just that -- a bounce, not a fundamental return of consumer spending. Since the consumer is responsible for over 70% of the economy, clearly this is significant. Here is the key section of the report: "The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for April, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $337.7 billion, a decrease of 0.4 percent (±0.5%) from the previous month and 10.1 percent (±0.7%) below April 2008. "Total sales for the February through April 2009 period were down 9.2 percent (±0.5%) from the same period a

...

Gas Prices a Retail Headwind – Analyst Blog

Zacks Market Commentaries (May 11th, 2009) Writes:
Highlights include JC Penney Co., Inc. (JCP), Macy's, Inc. (M), Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST) and Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (WMT).Gasoline prices are climbing, and that is creating another headwind for retailers.According to AAA's Fuel Gauge Report, the national average price of gasoline is $2.23/gallon for regular and $2.45/gallon for premium. These prices look pretty cheap compared to May 2008, when the national average was $3.71 for regular and $4.08 for premium, but not so good compared to January 2009.Unfortunately, gas prices have been steadily climbing since the beginning of the year. The price of regular gasoline bottomed out in December 2008 around $1.65/gallon. The price has climbed about 35% in the last five months.Higher gasoline prices take a bigger bite out of consumers' wallets, and they have less to spend on discretionary items like clothes, shoes or house wares. ...

Controversial Stress Tests Reveal Only One Bank Needs Capital, but Worries Remain

Contrarian Profits (April 27th, 2009) Writes:

Only one of the 19 financial institutions that received a bank stress test would require additional capital, the controversial government initiative has reportedly concluded.

The identity of the bank that is alleged to have failed the bank stress test was not revealed.

The bank-stress-test findings were reported yesterday (Sunday) by CNBC.com, which said it obtained the information from a source that it did not identify. The source did not identify the company, CNBC.com reported.

“At least one firm – under the [bank] stress test assumptions – will require more capital,” the source said.

The bank-stress-test results were contained in a two-dozen-page report that the government released Friday. But the results had already been “conveyed” to the firms, meaning the bank in question is aware of the U.S. central bank’s assessment, according to the published report.

This round of bank stress tests was essentially a two-step process. The

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Retailers Getting “Less Worse” – Analyst Blog

Zacks Market Commentaries (April 9th, 2009) Writes:
Highlights include Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (WMT), JC Penney Co., Inc. (JCP), Abercrombie & Fitch, Inc. (ANF) and Target Corp. (TGT)March retail sales were a mixed bag, with about half of the retailers beating expectations and half meeting or falling short of expectations. Our sample of 20 retailers that report monthly sales had a combined comp-store sales decrease of 1.3% including Wal-Mart (WMT) and decrease of 3.3% excluding Wal-Mart.Bottom line, sales in retail stores remain weak and profits even weaker. Sales for the first quarter are going to contract versus the first quarter of 2008. Outside of the discounters and a few specialty retailers, the retailers are really struggling. For instance, JC Penney's (JCP) comps were down 9.2%, Abercrombie's (ANF) were down 34%, and even Target's (TGT) were down 6.3%.Despite the weak results, most retail stocks ...

Grizzly News Keeps Us Bearish – Analyst Blog

Dirk Van Dijk (March 6th, 2009) Writes:
Highlights include Bank of America Corp. (BAC), PNC Financial Services (PNC), Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC), Macy's Inc. (M) or J.C. Penney Co., Inc. (JCP).With News This Grizzly, It's Hard Not to be BearishThe loss of 651,000 jobs was right in line with expectations, but the revisions to the previous month's was not. The January number was revised to a loss of 655,000 jobs from an originally reported loss of 598,000 jobs. The December figures were revised down again as well, to a loss of 681,000 from an estimate of 577,000 in the January employment report and 524,000 when first reported.For those determined to see the glass as half full, one could say that there is now a downward trend in job losses, since based on current estimates, the loss in February is less than the loss in ...

Obama Stimulus and January Effect, this Week’s Top Stories

Contrarian Profits (January 5th, 2009) Writes:

President-elect Barack Obama’s transition team is reportedly putting the finishing touches on an economic recovery plan that could run from $675 billion to $1 trillion, though many experts believe the program will most like range between $700 billion and $800 billion.

Briefings for top congressional Democrats were to start either over the weekend or today (Monday), a senior transition-team official told The Associated Press late last week. President-elect Obama is slated to meet today with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., in a Democratic strategy session that is likely to focus on the economic recovery package.

It’s time to look forward, not back. The 111th Congress meets tomorrow (Tuesday), and a comprehensive economic stimulus package is at the top of its agenda.  Hopefully, the lawmakers can put partisan bickering aside (fat chance) and have a bill in place for President-elect Barack

...
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