A recent study shows people are twice as likely to seek information that confirms their beliefs than they are to consider evidence that contradicts them. Wall Street Journal Intelligent Investor columnist Jason Zweig tells Kelsey Hubbard how this “confirmation bias” can influence their financial decisions.

Source: The Wall Street Journal, November 13, 2009.

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This post provides links to a number of interesting articles I have read over the past few days that you may also enjoy.

• Doug Kass (TheStreet.com): Bearish arguments are roaring, September 14, 2009. In summary, the market has discounted favorable expectations (certainly against forecasts four months ago!) and seems more “certain” of a self-sustaining recovery cycle outcome. Reflecting the gravity and weight of so many inhibiting factors, I see a much broader range of possible outcomes and less certainty than some of the newly printed bullish market participants. The credit expansion of the last several decades has reversed, it will take time to reverse the damage to net worth and confidence, the consumer remains in a fragile state, corporations will make do with more productive but fewer personnel (job growth could continue to disappoint), there are no apparent drivers to replace the role of

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This week on Consuelo Mack WealthTrack, two unconventional thinkers share their wisdom with us. She talks to Nassim Taleb, “The Black Swan” author and well known Cassandra, about his unconventional, and as it turns out prescient, approach to investing, and Jason Zweig, author of “Your Money and Your Brain” explains the new field of neuroeconomics and how to apply it. This is good viewing material.

Note: The transcript of this interview is not available yet, but will be posted here as soon as it arrives.

Source: Wealthtrack, September 4, 2009.

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For more than a decade, author and academic Dr. Jeremy Siegel had the Midas touch.  His book “Stocks For the Long Run,” first published in October 1996, surveyed more than 200 years of stock market history both in the United States and abroad and made a compelling case that common stocks are the very best long-term investment vehicle. Better than cash. Better than bonds. Better than real estate. Better than gold.

In the roaring bull market of the 90s - and since - his book was required reading. Millions of investors were strongly influenced by his research.

In the process, Siegel became a celebrity, appearing regularly on network and cable investment shows. He is also now an advisor to WisdomTree Investments, a sponsor of exchange-traded funds.

But while history once buttressed Siegel’s grand conclusions, current events haven’t been so kind…

More specifically, as of June 30, U.S. stocks have underperformed long-term Treasury bonds over

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Dr. Jeremy Siegel: Are Stocks Still The Best Long-Term Investment Vehicle?

by Alexander Green, Advisory Panelist

For more than a decade, author and academic Dr. Jeremy Siegel had the Midas touch.

His book “Stocks For the Long Run,” first published in October 1996, surveyed more than 200 years of stock market history both in the United States and abroad and made a compelling case that common stocks are the very best long-term investment vehicle. Better than cash. Better than bonds. Better than real estate. Better than gold.

In the roaring bull market of the 90s - and since - his book was required reading. Millions of investors were strongly influenced by his research.

In the process, Siegel became a celebrity, appearing regularly on network and cable investment shows. He is also now an advisor to WisdomTree Investments, a sponsor of exchange-traded funds.

But while history once buttressed Siegel’s grand conclusions, current

...

I am experiencing Internet problems and have difficulty accessing my data sources. This week’s video compilation is therefore posted without the usual introductory paragraphs. But I’m sure the interesting clips will speak for themselves.

Wall St Cheat Sheet: AIG - writing stories about people who play “it” safe “Evidently, AIG is a company that plays ‘it’ safe (whatever the hell that means) and knows how to manage risk better than anyone else in the known universe. Don’t believe me? Take their word for it. We let corporations falsely advertise all the time, and here is a perfect example of the cost.”

Source: Damien Hoffman, Wall St Cheat Sheet, July 15, 2009.

Bloomberg: Shiller, Roubini discuss “anemic” economic recovery “Nouriel Roubini, professor at New York University’s Stern School of Business, and Robert Shiller, chief economist and co-founder

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Pimco's launch should be a big wake-up call to ETF investors.

Has anyone noticed that Pimco, as of yesterday, is offering (now higher-yielding, lower-priced) short-term U.S. Treasuries at an expense ratio of 9 bps (0.09%)? Hougan notes that the new fund (NYSE Arca: TUZ) traded 300,000 shares on its first day, and I expect it'll be trading a lot more than that. Pimco's got BRAND in fixed income, and the forthcoming launch of six more ETFs (along with all sorts of other plans) indicates that it is just dipping its toes in the ETF market so far ... and is planning to jump into the pool in a big way (liquidity, transparency).

That, to me, is very, very cool. (See related IU.com story that broke the news of Pimco's original plans to enter the ETF market here. You can also see how they revised those plans,

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I've gotten a few questions from readers and colleagues about what sources I turn to for information about the markets, exchange-traded funds and related topics.

The list is long and varied, and ebbs and flows over time. But here are some of the sources (public, private and otherwise) that I turn to in my day-to-day reading. I'm sure I'm leaving out quite a few sites, but this at least is a partial list.

NATIONAL PUBLICATIONS

IndexUniverse.com and IndexUniverse.eu: It goes without saying that IndexUniverse.com and IndexUniverse.eu are the best sites on the Web for information about ETFs and how they are used in portfolios.

IndexUniverse.com

IndexUniverse.eu

Slate/The Big Money: Those two Web sites aside, I start my day at Slate.com, and its sister finance site The Big Money. I find the daily news summary (and weekly magazine summaries) the best meta-journalism on the Web. They offer

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How to Become a Market Timing Expert

by Alexander Green, Oxford Club Investment Director

With the recent movements in the markets making many question whether we’re moving up or down, market timing comes into question. A few weeks ago, our Chairman and Investment Director Alexander Green penned an article on market timing for Oxford Club subscribers…

At the Investment U Conference in St. Petersburg, FL a few weeks ago, my good friend and colleague Mark Skousen called me out.

He told the audience that I was opposed to market timing, but laughed and insisted I was one of the best market timers he knew.

“He railed against the housing bubble four years ago - and he was right!” Skousen declared. “He called oil at $140 a barrel a joke - and he was right again! He has been insisting for weeks that the market was oversold and now it puts on

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A reader left a link to a long article from the Boston Globe about what a modern depression would look like. My first observation was that it reads a lot like Michael Panzner's book that I was probably the last person to read two years ago. Amusingly it seemed less bleak than when I read most of the same stuff in Panzner's book two years ago because things have deteriorated so much since then. Foreclosures and unemployment are way up and the stock market and GDP are way down. Given that we are much closer to a depression in terms of what is actually happening on the ground it's like there is less ground between here and the scenario spelled out in the article and because of that it seemed less scary. I'm sure there is some ...