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Peru poised for a relatively smooth 2009

Jason G. Wulterkens (December 27th, 2008) Writes:

Investors spent the holiday-shortened Christmas week in an un-merry mood, digesting more gloomy economic data and taking stock of a tumultuous 2008.

With the S&P 500 Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Index down by 35.8% and 40.6% respectively for the year to date, many investors would be anxious to wave the old year goodbye. But changing the calendar digits from ’08 to ’09 will regrettably not make an iota’s difference to the perilous nature of the investment environment facing investors as we usher in the New Year.

Come January 1, investors will not only be hung over from 2008’s market rout (and possibly the previous night’s exuberance), but also still be battling with the implications of the credit crisis for the global economy and financial markets,

...

Zambeef plans $30m investment in 2009

Jason G. Wulterkens (December 22nd, 2008) Writes:

Zambeef Products PLC (LSE: ZAMB), headquartered in Lusaka, engages in the production, processing, distribution, and retail of beef, chicken, eggs, milk, and dairy products in Zambia.  Its cropping operations comprise 2,700 hectares under irrigation and a further 1,500 hectares of dry land crops.  The company, through its subsidiary, Zamleather Limited, also involves in the tanning of hides for export to the Far East and Europe, as well as the production of finished leather, shoes, and industrial footwear.  It operates 82 retail outlets that sell meat, chicken, milk, eggs, and processed meat in Zambia; in-store butcheries in Shoprite supermarkets; and fast food outlets, selling fried chicken and chips. In addition, the company provides transportation services through a fleet of approximately 200 trucks; and operates as a franchise on Shoprite Checkers butcheries.

Recently, the Times of Zambia reported that the firm ...

Dong losing its ding against the dollar

Jason G. Wulterkens (December 18th, 2008) Writes:
Vietnam’s central bank will gradually widen the band in which the country’s currency is allowed to trade against the U.S. dollar, Pham Huu Phuong, head of the central bank’s representative office in Ho Chi Minh City, told a state run newspaper on Thursday. The dong is presently allowed to trade against the dollar within a three-percent band around a midpoint rate set daily by the central bank. Vietnam’s exchange rate has experienced a turbulent past few months, due primarily to the global rise of the dollar since the onset of the financial crisis, as nervous investors pulled money out of emerging markets like Vietnam. The dong had been rising against the dollar early in the year due to large inflows of foreign investment. It then dropped sharply in late spring on fears of a currency crisis due to rampant inflation. It ...

Bleak outlook for Latin America may not apply to Chile

Jason G. Wulterkens (December 16th, 2008) Writes:
Interesting story in this week’s Economist (”Preparing for tougher times”) underlines a plethora of dour economic forecasts for Latin American economies heading into 2009: In the past two months, Latin America has seen its stockmarkets crash, currencies wobble and credit start to dry up. That comes on top of falling exports and the plunge in the prices of the commodities it sells to the world. Twisting the knife, less money is being sent home by Latin Americans working abroad. Specifically: As recently as October, the IMF expected growth in the region next year of 3.2%.  This week the World Bank forecast 2.1%.  The same day Morgan Stanley, an investment bank whose Latin American research team is among the more pessimistic about the region, cut its forecast for the seven largest economies in 2009 from growth of 1.5% to a contraction of 0.4% ...

Shoprite Holdings poised for further growth

Jason G. Wulterkens (December 16th, 2008) Writes:
Shoprite Holdings, owners of Shoprite stores, is listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange, with secondary listings on the Namibian (Namibian SE:SRH) and Zambian Stock Exchanges.  Shoprite operates in 17 countries across Africa, the Indian Ocean islands and southern Asia, and expects to start operating in the Democratic Republic of Congo, as well as to open more stores in Angola and Ghana.  Shoprite is the fifth largest company listed on the Namibian exchange, and is up 18.92% YTD. “The continent will produce excellent results over the long term. Our number of stores and geographic spread across Africa are well positioned for future growth,” its CEO Whitey Basson said. Analysts agree.  “Africa is where Shoprite’s next growth will come from because it has first-entrance advantage over any retailer in Africa over 10 years,” said Absa Asset Management Private Clients ...

“Ecuador has probably cost all Latin American countries tens of millions of dollars in borrowing costs”

Jason G. Wulterkens (December 15th, 2008) Writes:
Per the Financial Times today: Ecuador’s bonds fell sharply after the decision to default on $3.86bn of foreign debt on Friday, with its main benchmark bond yield jumping more than 100 basis points since Friday to trade at about 60 per cent. The decision of Rafael Correa, Ecuador’s radical leftist president, could return to haunt the country and others in the region as investors subsequently demand higher yields to buy their bonds. Although Ecuador attracts only investors willing to take big risks in exchange for high yields, even the most risk-hungry funds may think twice now. The country’s credit default swap prices, a form of insurance against debt defaults, are trading at more than 4,000 basis points, one of the highest sovereign prices in the world. The failure to pay a $30.6 million interest payment on its 2012 global bonds, despite the fact ...

FRN: The Polish Chilean Fund

Jason G. Wulterkens (December 14th, 2008) Writes:
Bring up “frontier markets” and most investors envision a potpourri of nations primarily located in Africa or the Middle East. Not so fast, my friend. A closer inspection of the growing number of frontier mutual funds and ETFs, for instance, shows that at least in regards to some of them, there is very little correlation to the aforementioned regions. Consider the Claymore/BNY Mellon Frontier Markets ETF (NYSEArca: FRN). The fund uses an indexing approach and seeks to more or less replicate, before fees and expenses, an equity index called The Bank of New York Mellon New Frontier DR Index. What does that mean? A close inspection of the fund’s holdings shows that Poland (25.07%), Chile (23.55%) and Egypt (14.78%) account for a majority of the top country weightings, and moreover that financials account for 41.61% of the sector weighting. Per Matthew McCall, ...

Peru’s BVN: a golden play?

Jason G. Wulterkens (December 9th, 2008) Writes:
Peruvian miner Buenaventura (Compania De Minas Buenaventura S.A.A.) (NYSE: BVN), with a market cap of USD 3.96 billion, is Peru’s largest publicly traded precious metals company. While there are certainly a lot of Gold bulls screaming “Inflation” at the moment, it could in fact be the mining stocks rather than the commodity per se that are in for a positive adjustment heading into 2009. As one commentator on Seeking Alpha noted yesterday: The XAU/Gold ratio is a measure of index of leading gold mining companies (XAU – Philly Gold and Silver Sector Index) relative to gold price. Over the past 25 years, the XAU/Gold ratio has been 0.25. That means the XAU index would be about ¼ the price of an ounce of gold. On Monday (Dec. 8), the XAU closed at 94 while gold closed at $760 an ounce. This makes the XAU/Gold ...

Telecom Argentina poised for growth

Jason G. Wulterkens (December 9th, 2008) Writes:
Fundamental research by IIR Group indicates a 25% upside in Telecom Argentina’s Class B common stock in a 6 - 24 month perspective. The target price for the company’s ADR (NYSE: TEO) is set at US$10.10, reflecting a 18.82% upside.  IIR’s outlook for TEO is broadly positive based on the healthy top-line growth reported for 2008, and expectations of higher future revenues from wireless services. The wireless market is expected to grow on basis of higher usage as a result of lower tarriffs. According to consultancy firm Frost & Sullivan, the WiMax customer base is expected to grow at a CAGR 97.7% from 2006 to 2012. The competitive situation, with only two major telecom players present in Argentina, puts TEO in a position to capitalize on the opportunities in the WiMax market. Moreover, IIR reports TEO is planning to form an ...

Van Eck Files For Country-Specific Middle East ETFs

Jason G. Wulterkens (December 9th, 2008) Writes:
ETF provider Van Eck Global filed with the SEC to launch two funds tracking Kuwait and Egypt.  The firm already has an ETF in its Market Vectors family that covers the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (including Kuwait, but not Egypt).  Though three other ETFs launched in 2008 cover the Middle East, the Van Eck filings will be the first ETFs to cover those two markets exclusively. You can find the prospectus for the two funds here.

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