by Edward Hugh: Barcelonabr /br /Yesterday's comments by Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa that conditions in Japan's economy are severe and that monetary conditions are rapidly tightening should not be taken lightly in my opinion. Viewed alongside last weeks data revision which showed that Japan’s gross domestic product contracted much more rapidly in the third quarter than initially thought, and the recent admission by Japan’s Finance Minister Shoichi Nakagawa that employment conditions are also nowbecoming “severe.” it is clear that we are in the process of settling-in for what promises to be quite a long and hard recession.br /br /Revised data released last week showed that gross domestic product fell on quarter-by-quarter basis by 0.5 percent during the three months up to September, as compared with the preliminary estimate of only a 0.1 per cent decline. Year on year, the economy is now thought to have also contracted by ...

“Airshow China,” the huge aerospace trade show that’s known officially as the “China International Aviation and Aerospace Exhibition,” ended Sunday in the southern-coast city of Zhuhai. It was the seventh time the event has been held.

But it’s the first time China’s commercial airplane sector has a long-term flight plan to follow.

Roughly $4 billion deals involving 102 aircraft were signed during the six-day event, which was attended by representatives of 600 aviation companies from 35 countries, officials from the Airshow China Organizing Committee told the People’s Daily newspaper.

But the real news was that China has set a timetable for its proposed “jumbo” jet, a passenger aircraft China plans to design and build domestically to compete directly with commercial jetliners built by industry heavyweights Airbus SAS of Europe and The Boeing Co. (BA), the U.S.-based airliner industry pioneer that’s America’s biggest exporter.

China

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Huge trend reversal: Dollar busts, commodities boom… why, and will it last? Rate cuts round the world… U.S. and China slash, Japan considers. U.S. three months away from “official” recession. Two new bailouts: Who’s lining up for help, plus Uncle Sam’s October tab. Denning and Nelson on beating inflation with the right long-haul stock.

The U.S. dollar fell by its largest percentage in 13 years yesterday.

Et voila, the trend we believe is your friend returned with some impressive steam:

The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index popped 5.9% — diddly squat compared with equity moves lately, but still the biggest daily gain for the index since its inception, in 1956.

Alas, despite the rise, the CRB is still down 24%

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Our remaining short positions got cleaned out yesterday and this morning (ouch!) and now the market is waiting with bated breath to see if the Federal Reserve cuts the Fed Funds rate by 50 basis points (expected) or more or less (really not expected).There are several technical — and temporary — reasons the major indices rallied hard yesterday. Traders seemed to anticipate a large cut to the Fed Funds rate today. The market was technically oversold. Governments everywhere are riding to the rescue on a flood of liquidity. And the yen carry trade (when traders borrow in low-interest yen to buy speculative assets) had been unwinding in a hurry, but that seems to have temporarily reversed, thanks to Japanese government intervention.We could see more of a rally in the short-term, but fundamentals need to change to get the groundwork for a real, lasting rally. And that ...

Overseas markets surged early Tuesday as government-backed bank-bailout plans in the United States, Europe and Japan persuaded investors to jump back into stocks.

It's round two for the bailout bill. After sundown, the Senate will vote on a revised version of the bill Congress trashed on Monday.

Eric Roseman says the passing of the bill will not address the root of the banking crisis: asset price deflation. History teaches that this could takes years to reverse. Japan still suffers from a deflationary hangover from own real estate slump in the late 1980s.

This makes it hard to see a bull market in US stocks in the near future. Eric recommends assets that produce regular income... like high-quality corporate bonds.

By Claus Vistesen: Lausanne It has been a while since I last had Japan under the spotlight where and where I noted that Japan almost certainly would be tumbling into or very close to recession. Since then, data have been pointing only one way really and with the recent downward revision of an already quite awful Q2 GDP reading Japan now seems certain to be flirting with a recession. As per usual, I will peruse the most recent pile of data but now that Japan stands on the brink of yet another recession in the 21st century, I also think that it also finds itself confronted with a crucial question. What will happen to spending and the political situation in the wake of Fukuda’s resignation? I am no political specialists, but I will try to highlight the issue from an economic view point all the same. All the Features of a Recession As if ...

It has been a while since I last had Japan under the spotlight where and where I noted that Japan almost certainly would be tumbling into or very close to recession. Since then, data have been pointing only one way really and with the recent downward revision of an already quite awful Q2 GDP reading Japan now seems certain to be flirting with a recession. As per usual, I will peruse the most recent pile of data but now that Japan stands on the brink of yet another recession in the 21st century, I also think that it also finds itself confronted with a crucial question. What will happen to spending and the political situation in the wake of Fukuda’s resignation? I am no political specialists, but I will try to highlight the issue from an economic view point all the same. All the Features of ...

Japan's consumer prices were up at the fastest date in more than a decade in July, while other data releases out in the last week show Japan's unemployment rate eased back from two-year high, household spending decreased, while industrial output rose. Inflation At Highest Level Since 1997 Inflation in Japan, according to the general index, increased to 2.3% in July from 2% in June, thus clocking up the highest rate of price increases since October 1997, when prices rose by 2.5%. The core CPI, which excludes volatile changes in fresh food prices increased by 2.4% year-on-year, and this index has now increased for 10 consecutive months. July's rise followed a 1.9% one in June. Core "core inflation" - that is stripping out food (but not alchohol) and energy ...

Japanese Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda will spend about $108 billion (11.7 trillion yen) on a stimulus package that critics say is more of an attempt to salvage political support than it is a serious effort to rescue an economy teetering on the brink of recession. While the plan is being spun as a life preserver for Japanese consumers and businesses struggling with high food and energy costs, it includes just $18 billion (2 trillion yen) in new spending. Most of the package will be allocated to loan guarantees for small and medium-sized businesses and will not necessarily translate into bottom line growth. "The program earmarks 2 trillion yen in real spending, but probably barely half of it will contribute to boost [gross domestic product (GDP)]," Kyohei Morita, chief economist at Barclays Capital (ADR: BCS) in Tokyo, told Bloomberg News. "The ...