MARKET COMMENT October 30, 2008 Yep, it was that kind of day. Was there any good news to account for an up day? Absolutely nothing, unless you think the GDP data falling a little less than expected was something to place bets on. Nope, the market is just oversold and this is the end-of-month prop job mutual funds and a few others need. I like it since it reduces oversold levels and risks. It’s what we’ve been expecting and why we’re in cash. What’s next? An election. Despite negative investor sentiment [just my guess so everyone calm down] toward an Obama win which seems likely, a clear win by anyone could launch a further rally and a brief honeymoon period. So desperate are bullish tape painters they ignored San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen’s statement that “…recent economic data is deeply ...

Thursday October 30, 2008 Navivest

The U.S. Commerce Department today, put out a report that showed the Gross Domestic Product or GDP, contracted at an annualized rate of 0.3%. Economists were looking for a rise of 0.3%.

The GDP which is the broadest measure of a nation’s economy, is the sum total of all the goods and services that a country produces. As such, a shrinking GDP means we are producing fewer goods and services, which would then mean less people employed, and all the other negative economic implications that come with that.

The number should not entirely be a surprise. Employment is already at 6.1% a 0.7% jump in September, from the 5.4% August 2008 rate. Consumer sentiment for October 2008 showed a reading of 57.5, a steep drop from the September reading of 70.3. Forecasters had been looking for the number to come in at 64.5.

Furthermore, major corporations have

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There is so much chaff floating around about the roles of Fannie and Freddie and of the Community Reinvestment Act in the current crisis, despite the best efforts of economists like Jim Hamilton [0] [1], Mark Thoma and Janet Yellen, that it seems worthwhile to once again go through some of the arguments that have been forwarded.

From David Goldstein and Kevin G. Hall, "Private sector loans, not Fannie or Freddie, triggered crisis":

Federal Reserve Board data show that:

More than 84 percent of the subprime mortgages in 2006 were issued by private lending institutions. Private firms made nearly 83 percent of the subprime loans to low- and moderate-income borrowers that year. Only one of the top 25 subprime lenders in 2006 was directly subject to the housing law that's being lambasted by conservative critics. From David Goldstein and Kevin ...

The $2.66 trillion municipal bond market is embroiled in the overall credit market mess, creating an unusual complex of risks and opportunities.

The supply-demand forces in the municipal bond market have been unfavorable in the past year, causing prices to decline.

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The mutual funds in this table are Vanguard Admiral class.  The minimum investment is $100,000, but the expense ratio is only 8 basis points.  Their Investor class shares carry a 15 basis point expense ratio.  Either expense is lower than most alternatives.

Negative Forces on Muni Market:

Some of the adverse circumstances impacting muni prices and rates include:

Credit downgrades for municipalities Near-bankruptcy of the muni bond insurers Unwinding of muni bond positions by hedge funds deleveraging Failure of the auction rate muni market Rise in long-term muni issuance as short-term rates became burdensome Rotation from muni to Treasury bonds in flight from risk of all ...

Red Hat’s Purchase; Toll Bros. NYC Worries; Dollar Rally; Unilever’s New CEO; Fed President Sees Room for Cut; Boeing’s Labor Woes Red Hat Inc. (RHT) yesterday (Thursday) announced it had purchased privately held software company Qumranet Inc. for $107 million in cash. The Raleigh-based software distrubutor expects the purchase to knock 5 to 6 cents off of its annual earnings per share, The Associated Press reported. Red Hat expects the deal to add $20 million in revenue by the next fiscal year. Homebuilder Toll Brothers Inc. (TOL) admitted to concerns about the New York City condo market, which has been one of the last holdouts of the current U.S. housing recession. “It has felt some of the storm that’s come to the residential real estate market in the country,” Chief Executive Bob ...

Source This morning we were pleased to welcome Janet Yellen, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, to our UCSD Economics Roundtable. She focused on three main challenges: the housing slump, financial market turmoil, and commodity prices, which she likened to the three witches from Macbeth. Her complete speech is available from the FRB SFO Here are some excerpts. Janet Yellen (photo courtesy of FRB SFO). Housing. Unfortunately, it appears to me that there are at least three reasons for thinking that housing prices have further to fall. First, the ratio of house prices to rents-- a kind of price-dividend ratio for housing-- still remains quite high by historical standards.... Second, inventories of unsold homes remain at elevated levels.... Third, the futures market for house prices predicts further declines in a number of metropolitan areas this year.... Financial markets. ...