The conventional wisdom is that ETFs and other index-tracking vehicles are designed for beta (market exposure) and that active managers pursue alpha (value added through skill). But what does this actually tell us?

Do our well-used Greek letters help us make sense of the investment landscape, or do they actually hamper us in managing money? As James Montier, formerly of Societe Generale’s asset allocation team, now with Boston-based fund manager GMO, pointed out in an article published in 2007, as soon as you use the terms “alpha” and “beta,” you are invoking the spirit of the capital asset pricing model.

And, unfortunately, CAPM doesn’t actually work in practice.

Why not? Apart from some questionable assumptions about frictionless trading and investors having identical goals, the key problem with CAPM is that it assumes that stock returns are normally distributed. In other words, the theory requires that stock prices follow a random walk,

If I knew the definitive answer to that question I would make this article about one paragraph long and we’d all go out, mortgage the farm (if we could qualify for a mortgage) and then get filthy, stinking rich. By the way, don’t miss my secret, short-term profit-making strategy at the end of this article.

Today’s 3% rally in the three major US stock indices gives the impression that the future looks very bright for stocks and the market in general.

A better-than-expected profit report from Lowe’s Cos [LOW: 19.53, -0.19 (-0.96%)], an uptick in homebuilder sentiment and positive comments from analysts about U.S. banks revived investors’ confidence in an economic rebound.Stocks fell sharply last week on worries that a recovery might be further off than hoped, interrupting a rally that has left the Standard & Poor’s 500 index up 34.5 percent since March 9. Was Monday’s rally a

A long-awaited reversal in the monumental global stock market rally since early March finally arrived last week. As the first-quarter earnings season started winding down and post stress-test capital-raising weighed on some banks, investors were faced with a slew of gloomy economic reports suggesting the recent optimism about a global recovery might have been premature.

“This week, the hard economic data remind us that the global recession is ongoing: exports remain deep in the red; retail sales disappoint; inflation still volatile on food and energy but down on year; and industrial production declines. However, the data are consistent with the story of a slowing economic decline, foretold by several ‘green shoot’ survey reports,” said Rebecca Wilder (News N Economics).

Source: Tom Toles, Washington Post.

“Less bad” economic reports provided investors with little comfort, sparking a reassessment

One of the definitions of “stress” offered by the Merriam-Webster dictionary is “bodily or mental tension resulting from factors that tend to alter an existent equilibrium”. Well, any bodily or mental tension investors might have been suffering from as a result of financial factors were shrugged off on Thursday with the announcement by US regulators that ten of the nation’s largest banks had to add a total of “only” $74.6 billion in equity following the completion of stress tests. However, whether this will indeed restore the equilibrium remains to be seen.

Source: Walt Handelsman

The diagram below, courtesy of the Financial Times, summarizes the stress test results in a nutshell. Click here or on the image below for a larger graphic.

Source: Financial Times

As investors welcomed the

The debate rages on: Is this a suckers’ rally or a new bull market? James Montier, the highly respected co-chief strategist of SocGen has weighed in on the subject in his latest Mind Matters investment newsletter. The paragraphs below have been republished from a post by Paul Murphy on the FT Alphaville blog.

The question [whether this is a suckers’ rally or a new bull market] is on quite a few lips right now. Montier says he doesn’t have a clue. So he’s buying insurance - to protect on the downside. From the strategist’s latest missive to clients:

“This strategy paid dividends in Japan which was characterised by explosive rallies (driven by the economic recovery) and the horrifying slumps as the recovery failed. Two methods of insurance stand out. Either I could buy index puts (relatively

A fascinating discussion a few weeks ago in welling@weeden with Albert Edwards and James Montier of Société Générale is republished below with the necessary permission.

“In the cacophony that is global investment strategy research, Albert Edwards (below left) and James Montier (right) stand out as clearly distinctive voices. And not merely because of their British accents or because they’ve tended to the decidedly bearish side of the scale over the last decade or so.

“Despite long tenure in the rarified top echelons of the investment banking world, for many years with Dresdner Kleinwort and more recently at Société Générale (where they are co-heads of global cross asset strategy) both have managed to retain a natural plain-spoken bluntness.

“Also