Treasuries Will Disappoint — Continued
Richard Shaw (December 25th, 2008) Writes:
In a recent post about “bubbly” Treasuries, we got some comments that deserve attention.
First, this is briefly what we said;
“Treasuries have reached bubbly levels, both in terms of low yield and the rate of change of price.
Interest rates will rise when the economy recovers, or when bond buyers demand more long-term interest to absorb trillions of new issues to fund recovery programs. Rising interest rates mean Treasury prices will fall.
… For investors who invest only “long”, closing long positions in long-dated Treasuries, or being alert to a trend reversal necessitating the closing of those positions is recommended.
… For investors who also invest “short”, being alert to a trend reversal creating a shorting opportunity is recommended. The current trend is strongly upward, but could reverse dramatically …”
Some commenters agreed and some did not.
A supportive comment was;
“The safe haven play into Treasuries is demonstrating a true example of a parabolic
...bill gross, bloomberg, David Rosenberg, Federal Reserve System, Fifth Third Asset Management;, Grand Rapids, Hoisington Management;, interest rate observer, James Grant, Jim Grant, Jim Rogers, Market Commentary, Merrill Lynch, Michigan, Mitchell Stapley;, New York, QVM Group LLC, Real Estate, Richard Shaw, short-term inter-bank lending rates;, T-Bond Daily;, technology bubble;, Technology Stocks, Thomas Girard;, United States, USD, Van Hoisington;


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