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Treasuries Will Disappoint — Continued

Richard Shaw (December 25th, 2008) Writes:

In a recent post about “bubbly” Treasuries, we got some comments that deserve attention.

First, this is briefly what we said;

“Treasuries have reached bubbly levels, both in terms of low yield and the rate of change of price.

Interest rates will rise when the economy recovers, or when bond buyers demand more long-term interest to absorb trillions of new issues to fund recovery programs. Rising interest rates mean Treasury prices will fall.

… For investors who invest only “long”, closing long positions in long-dated Treasuries, or being alert to a trend reversal necessitating the closing of those positions is recommended.

… For investors who also invest “short”, being alert to a trend reversal creating a shorting opportunity is recommended. The current trend is strongly upward, but could reverse dramatically …”

Some commenters agreed and some did not.

A supportive comment was;

“The safe haven play into Treasuries is demonstrating a true example of a parabolic

...

Buy Low…If You Dare

Contrarian Profits (November 20th, 2008) Writes:

Last month, I spent some time in San Juan, Puerto Rico. One day, we visited Old San Juan, the oldest settlement within the territory of the United States, with a history that begins in 1508. We also visited the old fort known officially as El Castillo San Felipe del Morro, or simply El Morro.

The fort must have sent shivers up the spines of all those who hoped to take it. The walls of El Morro are 18 feet thick and 145 feet high. Built on a headland, the Spanish Empire controlled the flow of goods in and out of the New World from here. El Morro has been tested many times. Even today, you can walk in the oldest tower in the fort, built in 1539, and see shell fragments in the ceiling that date to the 1898 bombardment of San Juan by the U.S. Navy during the Spanish-American War.

El

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Why Today’s Crisis Is More Like 1919 Than 1929

Justice Litle (November 5th, 2008) Writes:

Mainstream media is full of ‘Great Depression’ comparisons to today’s credit crisis. But Justice Litle says there are actually many similarities to be found a decade earlier. In 1919, there was a stock market crash, commodity slump, and a major bank bailout. But there is some hope: out of all that misery, the “roaring twenties” were born.

More from Justice in Taipan Daily:

The 1920s – widely known as “the roaring twenties” – were a time of great dynamism and change in the United States.

The decade earned its nickname and then some. Car ownership took off… movies and radio captivated the nation… and the stock market went through the roof.

Dow Jones Industrial Average, 1920-1940

The Dow went from a trough of 63.90 in 1921 to a peak of 381.17 in 1929. That’s just under a 500% gain in a

...

And Then There’s This… Thursday, September 25, 2008

Contrarian Profits (September 25th, 2008) Writes:

Both gold and silver recovered from their sell-offs in early morning trading in the Far East yesterday. Both spiked upwards about 15 minutes before the Comex open...and were subsequently capped at their highs of the day very shortly after that.


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