I’m not too optimistic about 2010. Below are my prognostications in the areas of the economy, domestic politics, global geopolitics, and the investment markets. Words: 681

In further edited excerpts from the original article* James Quinn (www.seekingalpha.com) goes on to say:

1. Double Dip Recession Will Commence by June of 2010 To date, the Federal Reserve has printed a) $700 billion wasted on a bank bailout, b) $787 billion wasted on a stimulus package c) $3 billion wasted on Cash for Clunkers ($24,000 per vehicle), d) $28 billion squandered on the $8,500 homebuyer tax credit, and e) $300 billion of mortgage-backed securities purchased by the Federal Reserve and Treasury and all we’ve received is a 2.2 percent increase in GDP. As the government stimulus winds down in the first half of 2010, the true weakness of the economy will reveal itself.

2. Official Unemployment Rate Will Grow to More Than 11% by

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Yesterday, Vice President Biden spoke at Tel Aviv University in Israel about the partnership between the United States and Israel:

Israel’s unique relationship with the United States means that you need not bear that heavy burden alone.  Our nations’ unbreakable bond borne of common values, interwoven cultures, and mutual interests has spanned the entirety of Israel’s history.  And it’s — it’s impervious to any shifts in either country and either country’s partisan politics.  No matter what challenges we face, this bond will endure.  As a result, generations of Israelis and Americans and American-Israelis have kept a foot in each country, enriching both our nations and peoples.  I met with some of your leading high-tech leaders earlier, prior to coming to the stage.  And they have a foot in both countries, many of them.

While these close relationships span the realm

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Earlier this week I made an across the board swap that is worth talking about. I sold China Mobile (CHL) and then replaced it with Partners Communication (PTNR).br /br /From the top down this does not change the exposure to equities or to the telecom sector but it does mostly eliminate China and increases Israel (we've held Teva (TEVA) for years now). We still have a little China as embedded in some of the ETFs we use.br /br /span class="fullpost"My history in the position was that I bought it in the low $60s a year and a half ago. I sold out of Sinopec (SNP) in mid 2007 thinking a big decline was very possible. I thought China could cut in half fundamentally and then overshoot another 10%. My sale of SNP was early and my purchase of CHL was early as the China market ended up with a 70% ...

VICE PRESIDENT BIDEN:  Mr. President, thank you for that lovely introduction.  And thank you for hosting me at such a world-class center for higher learning.  It’s been a long time since I’ve been back on campus.  I was a mere child, a 31-year-old Senator when I was here the first time.  But it’s a privilege to be back. 

The past few days being back in Israel has been wonderful.  It’s — it’s been an honor to be here, and it’s been — I wanted everyone to know with whom I spoke, and all of you to know, the deep friendship and kinship I feel as well as President Obama feels for this magnificent country.  I should probably be used to it by now, but I’m always struck every time I come back by the hospitality of the Israeli people.  No matter how long I’ve been away — and I imagine you’ve

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The bull market that commenced on March 9, 2009, has just market its first anniversary. A summary of the movements of major global stock markets for the past 12 months, as well as various other measurement periods, is given in the table below.

The MSCI World Index notched up one-year gains of 70.5%, whereas the MSCI Emerging Markets Index was on fire with +103.2%. As far as the US indices are concerned, the Dow Jones Industrial Index (+61.4%) and the S&P 500 Index (+68.6%) underperformed mature markets, but the Nasdaq Composite Index (+84.5%) and the Russell 2000 Index (+95.1%) gave investors reason to smile.

BRIC countries such as Russia (+117.5%) and India (+109.0%) were in the lead on the performance rankings, but China (+44.9%) – the first country to commence a bull market advance in November 2008 – has slipped badly over the past few months.

Notwithstanding the huge

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The bull market that commenced on March 9, 2009, has just market its first anniversary. A summary of the movements of major global stock markets for the past 12 months, as well as various other measurement periods, is given in the table below.

The MSCI World Index notched up one-year gains of 70.5%, whereas the MSCI Emerging Markets Index was on fire with +103.2%. As far as the US indices are concerned, the Dow Jones Industrial Index (+61.4%) and the S&P 500 Index (+68.6%) underperformed mature markets, but the Nasdaq Composite Index (+84.5%) and the Russell 2000 Index (+95.1%) gave investors reason to smile.

BRIC countries such as Russia (+117.5%) and India (+109.0%) were in the lead on the performance rankings, but China (+44.9%) - the first country to commence a bull market advance in November 2008 - has slipped badly over the past few months.

Notwithstanding the huge

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Barron's had a couple of interesting nuggets this weekend. First was an article commemorating, in a manner of speaking, the a href="http://online.barrons.com/article/SB126784011987856735.html#articleTabs_panel_article%3D1"one year anniversary/a of what appears to be the low. The article went on to make a bullish case for domestic and foreign equities. I would not say the article pounded the table with bullishness but there were a couple of items worth commenting on.br /br /span class="fullpost"There was a bit on the US market broken down to the sector level, well eight of the ten sectors, showing current PE ratios versus historical PE ratios to make the argument that they are cheap. If you do a little research you will see that PEs can stay low or high for quite a while without much in the way of predicative value.br /br /The article then went on to make the case for some foreign markets. Unfortunately the focus was ...

Paul Farrell really has it out for Wall Street, has very dire expectations for the US economy, capital markets and way of life. As a result a lot people discount his opinions as being overboard. For whatever reason I read some of his stuff like this article from yesterday called a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/story/wall-street-is-stealing-another-20-from-you-2010-03-02?link=kiosk"Wall Street Is Stealing Another 20% From You/a.br /br /The quick and dirty is that he blames Wall Street for rigging the game, having no regard for anyone but themselves, having stolen 20% from you over the last decade and he expects Wall Street to steal another 20% (or similar number) in the new decade.br /br /span class="fullpost" Before you blow him off completely you should read the article. There are a couple of very salient points even if you do not draw the same conclusion that he does. Chances are some reading this will draw the same conclusions ...

Telecom operator Cellcom Israel Ltd.’s (CEL) fourth-quarter net income grew 11.5% year over year, primarily driven by strong demand for content and value-added services.

The company reported earnings of NIS271 million ($72 million), or NIS2.75 (73 cents) per share, compared to NIS243 million ($64 million), or NIS2.48 (66 cents) per share in the year-ago quarter. The result also came in ahead of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 69 cents derived from 5 covering analysts.

Total revenue logged a growth of 4.3% to NIS1.64 billion ($434 million) from NIS1.57 billion in the year-ago period. The increase was mainly the result of 1.5% increase in revenue from services to NIS1.45 billion ($383 million) coupled with a 30.4% growth in handset and accessories revenue to NIS193 million ($51 million).

The expansion in Cellcom’s service revenue was primarily the result of a 26.0% growth in content and value added services, including SMS, revenues partially offset by

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Writing on RealClearWorld, A. Wess Mitchell and Robert Kron of the Center for European Policy Analysis argue that NATO giving Central Europe the cold shoulder will have far-reaching costs, and that measures of reassurance must be made.

First, it fuels division in NATO and the EU, as the absence of a convincing security guarantee in Central Europe may act as a stimulus to intra-European strategic divergence and political disunity. Insecure members are more likely to focus exclusively on the pursuit of hard power guarantees at the expense of the "normal" politics of integration. The less these needs are met, the wider the rift between "older" and "newer" member states will become.

Second, insecure allies are less likely to support out-of-area U.S. and NATO military missions. On a per-capita basis, Central European states have been some of the most generous

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