The US dollar surprised many by breaking out of its six-year downtrend in 2008. Currency expert Jack Crooks says the global economy will get a lot worse before it gets better. And the euro will come under severe pressure as individual members of the union crumble. Jack says this all poins to further greenback strength in 2009.

This from Sovereign Society:

Think back to the beginning of 2008. If you’re like most investors, you were probably wondering just how low the dollar might fall in 2008, and how much higher oil would surge. But, Mr. Market surprised us in a big way in 2008.

Now the question seems: How much higher will the dollar go, and will oil continue to plunge lower?

Many were so surprised by awesome and swift change of fortunes in 2008. So let’s take a look at some of the reasons for the swift reversal of

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by Edward Hugh: Barcelonabr /br /Well, one good turn deserves another. So if, a href="http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/"like Paul Krugman/a (and me, I think, though I hadn't gotten as far as thinking through all the implications of what was happening when I posted the original piece) you take the view a href="http://fistfulofeuros.net/afoe/economics-and-demography/as-the-politicians-battle-it-out-ukraines-economy-tunnels-south-in-search-of-australia/"the Ukraine industrial output chart I put up yesterday/a could be the smoking gun (or starter's pistol, or line judge flag, or whichever metaphor works for you) that tells us that the second great global depression in the history of modern industrial capitalism may now have begun, then here are some more of those tell-tale charts to put in you pipe and smoke - or if , like Huck Finn that is your preference, to chew on.br /br /br /Of course it is entirely possible that Paul Krugman is only saying that a Great Depression has broken out in Ukraine, and obviously ...

MSCI world equity index down 0.2 percent at 224.77…  China cuts rates but gloomy Japan, euro zone data weighs… Dollar weakens; bonds rise

Global shares weakened on Monday and the dollar fell broadly, weighed by signs of a deepening recession in Japan and the euro zone and concerns about the banking sector around the world.

China’s interest rate cut — the fifth move since September — failed to boost stocks as data showed the deepest plunge on record in euro zone industrial new orders and a record annual fall in Japanese exports in November. Ireland’s weekend announcement that it would take stakes in its three main banks for 5.5 billion euros further underlined the global scope of the worst financial crisis in 80 years.

“One thing you can say for sure is that there has been no Christmas rally,” said Philip Isherwood, strategist at Dresdner Kleinwort.

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MAN AG Buying VW Brazil Unit; Siemens Settles Probe for $2 Billion; Mattel Pays $12 Million for Tainted Toys; Ireland Banks Getting a Bailout; Housing Market Facing Confidence Collapse; Boeing Raises Dividend; U.S. Homes Lose $2 Trillion in Value

German manufacturing and engineering titan MAN AG said it will acquire Volkswagen Truck and Bus from Volkswagen AG (OTC: VLKAY). The 250-year-old MAN AG is Europe’s third-largest truckmaker, and this purchase marks its first major South American investment, Bloomberg reported. Siemens AG (ADR:SI) will pay more than $1.3 billion to settle corporate corruption charges that ...

by Edward Hugh: Barcelonabr /br /br /blockquoteIn view of Greece's EMU membership, the availability of external financing is not a concern, but the correction of cumulating indebtedness could weigh appreciably on growth going forward. While the risk of transmitting vulnerabilities to the euro area is very small reflecting Greece’s small relative size, large persistent current account deficits would increase the vulnerabilities to a reversal in market sentiment, leading to a corrective retrenchment of private sector balance-sheets in the face of rising indebtedness, and a possible appreciable rise in the cost of funding over time. These developments would have significant negative implications for growth.br /a href="http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.cfm?sk=21937.0"Greece: 2007 Article IV Consultation/a - IMF Staff Report/blockquotepbr /br //ppa href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SUEsR712NQI/AAAAAAAALuU/VGFiqyCyzBw/s1600-h/bond+spreads+2.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5278548924887872770" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 320px; HEIGHT: 170px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SUEsR712NQI/AAAAAAAALuU/VGFiqyCyzBw/s320/bond+spreads+2.png" border="0" //abr /The above quited paragraph from the IMF is a very good example of what used to be ...

We expect stock prices to remain volatile and susceptible to headline risk. Moreover, depreciation of many foreign currencies relative to the US$ is depressing US$ stock prices. Combined with the grim economic outlook for many economies ranging from outright recession in developed economies to slowing growth in emerging market economies, we expect share price performance to continue to weaken.

As in the US, non-US bank stocks have been hammered this year due to the financial problems that began in the US subprime mortgage market and spread globally to engulf many major financial institutions in most countries. The median stock price decline for non-US bank in the Zacks' universe is 57.5% compared to a loss of 42.1% for the S&P 500. This includes median price declines for non-US banks in the Zacks' universe

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Almost everything we use in modern society contains large amounts of raw materials. And they can’t be mined fast enough to keep pace with demand, especially from emerging markets. Lundin Mining Corp. (NYSE:LMC) is a strong Canadian mining company, with no debt and world-class assets. And it is a steal at today’s beaten down prices.

This from Investment U:

Consider that your computer could contain up to 38 separate chemical elements and that all of those elements needed to be mined and refined. Everything from cell phones to housing supplies requires massive amounts of raw materials.

Our modern lifestyle encourages us to buy the latest products, all made with increasing amounts of technology - and more raw materials.

But industrialized nations aren’t the only players clamoring for these commodities. Developing nations around the world are pounding the table for more of everything. They want what the industrialized west has had for

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Unearth Big Gains from the Commodity “Supercycle”

The latest research from the Investment U Advisory Panel Friday, November 28, 2008: Issue #893

Consider that your computer could contain up to 38 separate chemical elements and that all of those elements needed to be mined and refined. Everything from cell phones to housing supplies requires massive amounts of raw materials.

Our modern lifestyle encourages us to buy the latest products, all made with increasing amounts of technology - and more raw materials.

But industrialized nations aren’t the only players clamoring for these commodities. Developing nations around the world are pounding the table for more of everything. They want what the industrialized west has had for years. And they want it now.

And that’s just the problem. There isn’t enough of it being produced fast enough to satisfy everyone. An imbalance exists between producers, supplies and ...

by Edward Hugh: Barcelonabr /br /While we are likely to see a "substantial'' drop in euro-region inflation, Bank of Spain forecasts for the 15-nation euro area do not show price drops. That is they "show an enormous moderation in price gains, but they do show price gains,'' according to the latest statements by Miquel Angel Fernandez Ordoñez, ECB Council member and Governor of the Bank of Spain. Bank of Spain eurozone forecasts "don't show deflation" he told reporters in Madrid yesterday (Wednesday).br /br /The reason for this swift and adroit response to the question of the day in Spain was that EU Economy and Finance Commissioner Joaquin Almunia (not exactly your garden-variety world authority on macroeconomic topics) had earier said that the Europe's economies were "facing the prospect of deflation" amidst the worst financial crisis since the 1930s. In fact Fernandez Ordoñez is right, as is his want - right ...

Our outlook for the machinery sector is increasingly one of caution. We are beginning to see U.S economic weakness and the credit crunch negatively impact international markets.

Japan's machine orders have fallen for two consecutive months, with a huge 14.5% decline in August. China Petroleum & Chemical Corp., or Sinopec (SNP) plans to cut its oil imports for the fourth quarter of 2008, which portends of slower manufacturing activity ahead.

As foreign economies deal with weaker exports to the U.S and Europe, industrial customers are cutting back on capital spending. Equipment orders are decelerating in almost every end market -- from machines used in construction, infrastructure, agriculture and base metal projects.

Over the next 6-12 months, we believe the biggest potential problem area is global construction spending. Investors should realize the conditions that created the U.S. housing crisis existed in various markets outside the U.S. Excess liquidity and easy money played

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