We’ve made it to recovery, but it won’t be quick or easy, opines Paul Kasriel, award-winning chief economist of Northern Trust. In this video, he takes a fresh look at the economy, the headwinds we face, and future engines for global growth.

Click here or on the image below to view the video clip. (A link to the transcript is provided at the bottom of the post.)

Click her for the transcript of the interview.

Source: Northern Trust, November 2009.

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This post is a guest contribution by Charles Kirk, author of the popular The Kirk Report.

From time to time I have been asked to offer my perspectives on things I have found common in successful traders. I have always struggled with my reply to that question because there are only a few traders of which I have gained enough understanding of what they do every day to achieve their results.

However, in Van Tharp’s latest book “Super Trader,” he provides ten common characteristics frequently found among the best of the best among the hundreds of traders he’s worked with throughout his career. Like me, I think you may find it of interest!

1. They all have a tested, positive expectancy system that’s proved to make money for the market type for which it was designed.

2. They all have systems that fit them and

This post provides links to a number of interesting articles I have read over the past few days that you may also enjoy.

• Paul Krugman (The New York Times): Interest rates: the phantom menace, November 20, 2009. Well, what I hear is that officials don’t trust the demand for long-term government debt, because they see it as driven by a “carry trade”: financial players borrowing cheap money short-term, and using it to buy long-term bonds. They fear that the whole thing could evaporate if long-term rates start to rise, imposing capital losses on the people doing the carry trade; this could, they believe, drive rates way up, even though this possibility doesn’t seem to be priced in by the market. What’s wrong with this picture?

• Michael Panzner (Financial Armageddon): Economists: wrong again, November 21, 2009. As if they didn’t cause enough

D.C.-area developer Jeff Neal gives the Huffington Post Investigative Fund a tour of empty commercial properties just blocks from the Capitol. Hundreds of small and medium-sized banks are facing huge numbers of possible defaults by builders who erected thousands of office towers, condominiums and shopping centers with the easy credit available five years ago.

“Commercial real estate loans generally have terms of five to seven years. Many of the loans issued at the height of the credit bubble are coming due. By mid-November, $150 billion worth of commercial properties, about 7,500 in total, were in distress, according to Real Capital Analytics Research,” reported The Huffington Post. More than 400 banks are on a problem list maintained by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp, largely as a result of commercial debt.

Referring to the malaise of commercial real estate, Michael Stevens, senior vice president for regulatory policy at the

The transcript of Consuelo Mack’s recent interview with Bruce Berkowitz, founder and lead portfolio manager of the five-star Fairholme Fund, has just been published. Click here for the text. This is must-read material.

In case you missed the video clip, click here for the original post.

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Source: Tom Toles, Washington Post, November 15, 2009.

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Stock markets succumbed to a bout of profit-taking last week, sparked by concerns that the rally has overshot the pace of economic recovery. Riskier assets were showing signs of fatigue as the US dollar - the catalyst of many recent moves - stabilized and was perceived to be near its trough (if only short-term in the books of ardent dollar bears).

The greenback, usually the remit of the US Treasury, received support from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke in a speech. He noted that the Fed was “attentive to the implications of changes in the value of the dollar and will continue to formulate policy to guard against risks to our dual mandate to foster both maximum employment and price stability. Our commitment to our dual objectives, together with the underlying strengths of the US economy, will help ensure that the dollar is strong and a source of global financial

This post provides links to a number of interesting articles I have read over the past few days that you may also enjoy.

• Jim Jubak (MSN Money): 3-step strategy for a twitchy market, November 19, 2009. Many investors are deeply suspicious of the 60% run-up in stocks this year and are itching to sell. But then what? Here’s how to take some gains now while setting up a profitable 2010.

• Randall Forsyth (Barron’s): Treasury yield plunge sends warning, November 20, 2009. Collapse in note yields suggests economic distress will keep Fed on hold well into 2010 or beyond.

• Gordon Chang (Forbes): When in doubt, blame Bernanke, November 19, 2009. According to Liu Mingkang, China’s chief bank regulator, low American interest rates and the falling dollar have “seriously affected global asset prices, fueled speculation in stock and property markets

This podcast features an excellent interview by FT’s David Stevenson with Dylan Grice, strategist of Société Générale. Dylan, who has been described as “the Robin to Albert Edward’s Batman”, discusses stock market bubbles, China and geo-politics.

Click here for the interview (but be warned that the running time is 44 minutes).

Source: David Stevenson, Financial Times, November 6, 2009.

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Bill Gross, co-founder and co-CIO of PIMCO, is to my mind one of the shrewdest money men around. His monthly newsletter, this month entitled “Anything but .01%”, therefore always makes for thought-provoking reading.

The following are a few excerpts from the report:

“Almost all money market accounts - totaling over $4 trillion dollars, yield close to nothing, so close to nothing that I mistakenly did a double take when reviewing my monthly portfolio statement. “Yield on cash”, read the buried line on page 15 of the report, “.01%”.

“Well now, I say to myself, this is very interesting from a number of different angles. If I was hoping to double my money, it would take approximately 6,932 years to get there at that rate! Secondly, being a savvy professional investor and all, I knew that money market funds actually earned 20 basis points or so