Rail operator CSX, will report its second quarter financial results on Tuesday 07/15/08 after the close of the stock market. Art Hatfield, an analyst with Morgan Keegan is forecasting that CSX will meet Wall Street’s estimates. He thinks the impact of high fuel costs will be offset by continuing improvements in the company’s operational efficiencies. CSX has had quite a quarter. Despite a 37+% rise in the shares year to date, 12% this quarter in which the stock market in general has been decimated, and the stock trading near this year’s highs, the company has attracted the ire of a shareholder group comprised of The Children’s Investment Fund (TCI) and 3G Capital Partners. The shareholder group is claiming that CSX is underperforming and could achieve $2.2 billion in annual productivity gains within five years. The group also says profits at CSX could quadruple in five years compared with company forecasts ...

What to watch: Thursday, May 29: U.S. Revised Q1 GDP; Friday, May 30: CPI for April (May for select metropolitan areas); April - Industrial Production; April - Household income and expenditure survey; April - New housing starts; April - Unemployment and Ratio of Job Offers to Applicants Ongoing: Commodities and forex volatility — more inflation reporting chicanery. Protectionist tendencies may be pressured by a report (and the realization) of $3.2 billion in cross-shareholding losses in FY2007, as well as greater urgency from within for acceptance of foreign investment. In the meantime, we can enjoy watching the latest round of TCI (The Children’s Investment Fund (UK)) vs. J-Power (JP: 9513). Markets: The Nikkei starts the week against a shortened U.S. trading week for the Memorial Day holiday. Making matters worse is last Friday’s bout of selling that did ...

Everybody knows there is some kind of food crisis. Grocery prices are painful. Wal-Mart has rationed rice purchases. Mexico has had tortilla riots due to corn prices. Rice riots have occurred Asia. China introduced laws prohibiting conversion of human food crops to fuel.

However, who would have predicted a 5 standard deviation price move for an index of 60 foods, or a 16 standard deviation move in rice prices. No, that is not a typo. Bloomberg today reported a UN Food Crisis study and related price charts revealing this food Black Swan.

At the core of the definition of Black Swan is an unpredictable and unexpected price move that is way off the chart in terms of standard deviations from the mean.

Since 3 standard deviations theoretically encompasses 99.7% of all observations, 5 to 16 standard deviations is a shocker.

We’ll have to rely on businesses and

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