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David Cameron is Very, Very Upset About Georgia

Robert Amsterdam (August 17th, 2008) Writes:
And he wants you to know about it. From his op/ed in the Sunday Times: First, speaking up clearly and bluntly about what has happened. This is not a time for diplomatic opaqueness. It is a time to distinguish unambiguously between right and wrong. It is a time for democracies to stand together. It is a time for members of our parliament – the seat of one of the world’s oldest democracies – to speak up for one of the world’s newest. Today, in Georgia’s hour of need, this instinct unites government and opposition. Second, we need urgent diplomatic efforts, in which Britain must play a leading role. Russian forces must leave Georgia right away as they are required to do under the ceasefire agreement both sides have signed. Third, Russia must pay a price.

Video: U.S. Defense Secretary on Russia-Georgia War

Robert Amsterdam (August 17th, 2008) Writes:
Find more videos like this on www.truveo.com.

Russia’s Artful Invasion

Robert Amsterdam (August 17th, 2008) Writes:
From the International Herald Tribune: So along with the old-school onslaught of infantry, armor and artillery, Russia mounted joint air and naval operations, appeared to launch simultaneous cyberattacks on Georgian government Web sites and had its best English speakers at the ready to make Moscow's case in television appearances. If the rapidly unfolding events caught much of the world off guard, that kind of coordination of the old and the new did not look accidental to military professionals. "They seem to have harnessed all their instruments of national power — military, diplomatic, information — in a very disciplined way," said one Pentagon official, who like others interviewed for this article disclosed details of the operation under ground rules that called for anonymity. "It appears this was well thought out and planned in advance, and suggests a level of coordination in the Russian government between the military and the other civilian agencies and ...

Possible Reprecussions for Russia

Robert Amsterdam (August 16th, 2008) Writes:
Everyone is aware that Washington is not about to send the Marines into Georgia to assert its regional interests, but what are the realistic diplomatic and economic penalties that could be leveraged against Russia? The Bush Administration will be looking to save face, but as we have speculated, its range of options is rather limited. The Wall Street Journal elaborates a couple of ways that Russia may find itself punished for the war in Georgia: Western authorities should also explore the vulnerability of Russian assets abroad. At the least, they can make life difficult for the holders of those assets. Post-Soviet Russia allowed the emergence of businessmen and entrepreneurs who indeed wish to function as normal participants in world commerce. Their number, however, assuredly includes the lucky billionaires under Mr. Putin's protection. All of them want to benefit from the West's rules. That privilege should be restricted so long ...

Drilling Offshore to Affect World Oil Prices… and other Tales from the Iraq-Pakistan Border [0]

Menzie Chinn (August 16th, 2008) Writes:
Article Source Various individuals have argued for drilling in the Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) as a means to affect the price of oil. This is true despite this recent assessment by the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration, the Federal Government's nonpartisan analytical group on energy issues. From Annual Energy Outlook related analyses (June 2007): The OCS is estimated to contain substantial resources of crude oil and natural gas; however, some areas of the OCS are subject to drilling restrictions. With energy prices rising over the past several years, there has been increased interest in the development of more domestic oil and natural gas supply, including OCS resources. In the past, Federal efforts to encourage exploration and development activities in the deep waters of the OCS have been limited primarily to regulations that would reduce royalty payments by lease holders. More recently, the States of Alaska and Virginia have ...
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International Law and the War

Robert Amsterdam (August 15th, 2008) Writes:
Although the dust is far from settled in Georgia, and indeed I am getting firsthand reports of ongoing Russian troop movements, we will soon have to begin taking a serious look at the international law implications of this military action, and ask some tough questions about 1) the legal status of South Ossetia and Abkhazia pre- and post-conflict, 2) the status of Russia's "peacekeeping" mission and their range of duty, and 3) the legal basis for the deployment of Russian troops into Georgian sovereign territory. Although the Kremlin PR machine sputtered and coughed in the early days of the war, things are really catching up now (there are three separate articles attacking the Georgian cause in the Washington Post alone today). However one of the earliest and most important pieces was a by-lined article by Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov published in the Financial Times back ...

Why Attempts to Isolate Russia Won’t Work

Robert Amsterdam (August 15th, 2008) Writes:
bushroses081508.jpgPresident Bush seems quite confused as to how he can wield any influence whatsoever over Russian conduct in Georgia. His latest statements find him actually having to repeat his requests for the withdrawal of Russian troops from Georgia, and even whining about Russian "bullying." (hint: only the bullied talk about bullying.) Unlike the West, the Russian response with regard to Georgia ever regaining their U.N.-recognized sovereignty over the breakaway provinces has been swift and unequivocal: fuhgettaboutit. Now the latest news is that the maverick foreign policy minds of the Bush Administration are working on a clever new strategy to "isolate" Russia as punishment for invading Georgia. Who does he think he's kidding?

The Return of Russian Hegemony

Robert Amsterdam (August 15th, 2008) Writes:
If you believe that John Bolton has never said or written something you didn't vigorously disagree with, then you probably haven't done enough research. However the razor-tongued former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations is now safely packed away in the private sector (working alongside Ken Starr at Kirkland & Ellis), where he can speak with a great amount of autonomy to air his indiscriminate grievances ... which always makes for good reading. This guy does not speak the language of nuance, but when he says that this is indicative of how Russia intends to conduct foreign policy for the coming decade, we should listen up. Here's his bit on the Russian objective with the invasion of Georgia:

Russia Hedge Fund Guide

Richard C. Wilson (August 15th, 2008) Writes:
Russia Hedge Fund Guide Guide to Russian Hedge Funds Here is a short guide collection of articles on the hedge fund industry in Russia. I am always looking for more valuable online tools and resources to add to these geographical guides to the hedge fund industry. If you have a white paper or PowerPoint that I can include here please send me an email and I will post it for everyone's benefit. Excellent New York Times article about a Russian multimillionaire, his hedge fund, and America Russia dominates the list of leading hedge funds Good summary from Hermitage Capital Management about hedge funds in Russia Russia Hedge Funds 2008 Event in Switzerland “Russia’s hedge fund managers: The long, the short and the tall” Informative June 2008 Russian Hedge Fund ...

TGIF — Charts and News

Sean Brodrick (August 15th, 2008) Writes:
Man, this has been such a wild week, Friday couldn't come soon enough. Let's look at some charts, starting with one we've been following all week -- the US dollar.The US dollar has definitely broken above that weekly downtrend. A pullback and test of that support wouldn't surprise me. This breakout opens the door for a rally in the dollar to the 80+ level.

And naturally, the rally in the greenback is kicking gold lower ... Gold could make a stand here. But the bullishness in the dollar tends to tell me that gold will go down to test that weekly uptrend I've marked as (2).

Now, let's look at the CRB Index, a broad commodity index (though it is weighted heavily toward energy) ... It is testing support as well. So, maybe this will bring a rally early next week. I

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