The Housing Market: The Disappointment Of The Decade

by Alexander Green, Oxford Club Investment Director

My colleague Dr. Mark Skousen and I have been having a long-running, good-natured disagreement about the direction of the national housing market.

He calls buying real estate “the investment of the century.” I think it’s more likely to be “the disappointment of the decade.”

He thinks housing prices are about to rebound. I say rebounds (in the price of anything) only come off a genuine bottom. And, despite the precipitous drop in some areas, we still haven’t seen a bottom in home prices.

This week the media reported that the S&P/Case-Shiller National Home Price index fell 19.1% in the first quarter.

Bear in mind, that is not the fall from “the top” but just in the first quarter from a year ago. Moreover, the plunge is picking up speed. It was the biggest drop

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For Immediate Release

Chicago, IL - April 30, 2009 - Zacks.com releases the latest Zacks Industry Rank. Stocks featured in this week's analysis include Amazon.com (AMZN), CyberSource Corporation (CYBS), Equinix Inc. (EQIX), Google, Inc. (GOOG), Netflix, Inc. (NFLX), eBay Inc. (EBAY), Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) and First Trust Dow Jones Internet Index Fund (FDN).

Zacks Industry Rank Analysis is written by Charles Rotblut, CFA, Senior Market Analyst for Zacks.com.

Not All Internet Stocks Are Attractive

The most important thing I look for when analyzing an industry is a discernable business trend. I want to find the factors that are driving earnings estimates higher or lower.

Unfortunately, such trends don't always exist. This is the case with Internet stocks.

On the surface, Electronic Commerce and Internet Services look good with Zacks Industry Ranks

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How to Become a Market Timing Expert

by Alexander Green, Oxford Club Investment Director

With the recent movements in the markets making many question whether we’re moving up or down, market timing comes into question. A few weeks ago, our Chairman and Investment Director Alexander Green penned an article on market timing for Oxford Club subscribers…

At the Investment U Conference in St. Petersburg, FL a few weeks ago, my good friend and colleague Mark Skousen called me out.

He told the audience that I was opposed to market timing, but laughed and insisted I was one of the best market timers he knew.

“He railed against the housing bubble four years ago - and he was right!” Skousen declared. “He called oil at $140 a barrel a joke - and he was right again! He has been insisting for weeks that the market was oversold and now it puts on

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Highlighted stocks include Amazon.com (...

I’m confident that there are thousands of blog lurking gold bugs who are going to want to comment on this article from Mark Leibovit of VRGoldLetter.com. Mark hits on a number of issues, which include a possible conspiracy theory. Mark will be on PBS tonight talking about Gold, and if you visit VRGoldLetter.com, be sure and use the promo code “INO” for a discount.

But more importantly read the piece below and let the comments fly! It’s time for all of those blog lurkers to make their thoughts and opinions known!

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In the short term, the precious metals, especially Gold, are trading counter to the stock market, but we have also seen precious metals rally along with stock market during the 2003 and 2008 bull cycle.  Regardless, in the long-term, precious metals should rally because of currency debasement and the resulting inflation which follows.  I have recently inaugurated the

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The Recency Bias: Why Your Subconscious Is Wreaking Havoc On Your Investment Portfolio

by Alexander Green, Chairman, Investment U Investment Director, The Oxford Club Monday, January 12, 2009: Issue #914

If you’re like many investors, a subconscious bias is currently wreaking havoc on your investment portfolio.

Recognize this and a whole new world of opportunities will open up to you.

Here’s why…

Psychological studies confirm that we all have biases. Yet we’re generally unaware of them.

When it comes to investing, few of them do more harm than “recency bias.” This is the tendency of investors to extrapolate recent events into the future indefinitely.

The Recency Bias Creates a “New Era” of Growth

When technology and Internet stocks were hot in the late 90s, for example, investors began talking of a “New Era” of limitless technological growth. The truth, of course, is that technological innovation does steadily increase. Alas, the same cannot be said of

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Highlighted stocks include Baidu.com (BIDU), Sohu.com (SOHU), United Online (UNTD) and Yahoo (YHOO).

Key Points: Despite the resignation of Jerry Yang, forecasts are trending downward for Yahoo Other Internet companies are doing well, however, such as Sohu.com and United Online

Without Merger, Few Positive Catalysts For Yahoo Over The Short-Term

Yesterday, Yahoo (YHOO) announced the resignation of Jerry Yang from the CEO post. The announcement was met with cheer as shares rose by nearly a buck to $11.55.

Playing a role in the upward move were speculators hoping for renewed merger talks with Microsoft (MSFT). The problem is that there is no guarantee that a merger will occur.

Without a merger, there are few catalysts for the stock. Naming a well-respected outsider as a CEO might help, but the company is struggling with both tough competition and a weak economy.

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So says the MarketBeat blog.The post lists all sorts of related companies noting how much they are down and throws in a comparison to Microsoft and the tech bubble.The ag companies have earnings, there is clear and obvious demand for their product as part of the resource theme and the global ascendancy theme as opposed to internet stocks which were valued based on eyeballs.So clearly ag is different!Hang with me here, I'm not going where you think I am.I do think ag is different but that may not be right. The fundamental case for ag in terms of the world needing their stuff seems different but that may not be right. The ag companies make a lot of money and trade at valuations that can be measured but that may not matter.Ag is either different or it ...

By Peter D. Schiff Guest Columnist In football, when a running back intends to cut to the left, he often first fakes right.  This move is designed to make the defense commit its resources in the wrong direction.  It is my experience that markets often follow a similar path. Just prior to a major move in one direction, markets often make a sharp move in the opposite direction first. With respect to the dollar, gold, oil and other commodities, many on Wall Street have bought into the fake – and will soon be watching in amazement as the runner sprints to the end zone. Over the last few months, as the dollar rose more than 10% against a basket of other currencies – and as gold and oil sank to multi-month lows – many investors concluded that a threshold had been crossed, and that ...

In the CNBC.com Video Roundup, “Volatility-Beaters: Steel and Internet Stocks”, what steel name did Timna Tanners pick?

“We like U.S. Steel (X)…They’re the biggest tubular pipe player in the U.S.  Prices are going to rise steadily with energy demand there.”

- Timna Tanners, UBS Steel & Building Materials Analyst

US Steel scores well for earnings momentum and price momentum in the models I follow.