I want to talk about the challenge of exponential growth in a finite world. This is a concept that while on its surface seems easy to get, most people don’t fully grasp it. Any growth rate that is positive will lead to a doubling in size eventually -- the higher the growth rate, the quicker the doubling. A quick "back of the envelope" method of figuring it out is known as the rule of 70. If you divide a growth rate into 70, it will roughly give you the time for something to double. Thus if something is growing at 2% a year, then it will double in about 35 years, at 5% only 14 years, etc. If you want to be more precise, you can always use your Y^x button on your calculator, but the rule of 70 will do for this discussion. Clearly, exponential growth ...

Can USCF's new fund tackle the natural gas contango?

United States Commodity Funds' new ETF, the U.S. 12-Month Natural Gas Fund (NYSEArca: UNL), began trading yesterday, offering investors another easy access point to the natural gas market. But let's hope it sees smoother sailing than its controversial cousin, the U.S. Natural Gas Fund (NYSEArca: UNG).

Not only have regulators vociferously blamed UNG for distorting the commodity markets earlier this year, the fund has also performed dismally to date, dropping a whopping 61.24 percent since the beginning of the year. And it's not because investors have lost their taste for the fund: Last month, UNG still saw brisk inflows of $308 million, even as its net assets dropped $263 million.

Record-low natural gas prices have played their part in slashing UNG's returns, of course, but the big anvil weighing the fund down is the market's nasty

...

The International Energy Agency increased its forecast for 2010 global oil demand as the pace of economic recovery in Asia and the Middle East quickens, but has apparently cautioned that rising oil prices could jeopardize the green shoots of recovery. President Medvedev called for an end to Russia's 'humiliating' dependence on commodities in yesterday's state of the nation speech, whilst it is rebounding oil prices that are palliating Russia's current economic problems. Gazprom plans to increase its investment program by 5% next year, to $27.94 billion. The heads of the Russian state giant and Naftogaz are to meet to discuss the Ukrainian company's parlous financial status and issues related to the November supply of gas. Russia will apparently produce next-generation nuclear reactors and new types of nuclear fuel by 2014. Gazprom has confirmed plans ...

This post provides links to a number of interesting articles I have read over the past few days that you may also enjoy.

• John Arlidge: (Times Online): I’m doing “God’s work”. Meet Mr Goldman Sachs, November 8, 2009. The Sunday Times gains unprecedented access to the world’s most powerful, and most secretive, investment bank.

• Martha White (The Big Money): The Dow is too high, November 9 2009. What’s holding up the stock market? (It’s not the economy.)

• Rob Smyth, Bill Ryder and Ken Liu (Riverfront): Ten conditions for a sustainable recovery, November 9, 2009.

• The New York Times: Jobless recovery, November 7, 2009. We know that more stimulus spending and government programs are a fraught topic. But they are exactly what the country needs. It may be the only way to prevent a

...

This is a guest contribution by Damien Hoffman, editor of the very popular Wall St Cheat Sheet blog.

Rogers is one of the most respected investors in the world. I had a chance to chat with him the other morning to get more details about some of his recent comments in the media …

Damien Hoffman: Jim, you were in the media a few times last week and I want to follow up on a few points you made. You said on Bloomberg that Nouriel Roubini did not do his homework regarding the asset bubbles about which he is now warning. Can you explain what homework he did not do?

Jim: All of it. How can you talk about a bubble when assets such as

...

Baltimore — (TFN): How efficient are the markets? It is like asking how smart is the human race We all know the answer, but few of us are willing to suck in our pride and admit there are a few dim bulbs among us.

Judging by the sudden rise in fame of Levi Johnson or Balloon Boy’s antics, the human brain is far feebler than we give credit.

And so are the markets.

If you have taken a basic finance class anytime between 1965 and the present, you have likely studied Eugene Fama and his efficient market hypothesis.

Essentially, the University of Chicago professor created a cult-like following of investors and academicians that believe markets entirely reflect all known information and instantly react to new information.

For example:

When I told my ever-optimistic, ever-“hopeful” colleague, Laura Cadden, the news the majority of Obama’s infrastructure stimulus would finally be doled out sometime early next year

...

Baltimore-(TFN):Time to panic? If you are part of the Obama administration the answer is yes. If you are an American investor, hold off on the freaking out for at least another month or so.

With the nation’s unemployment rate officially in double-digit territory and the under-employed rate ready to the 20% mark, the politicians that promised bliss in the days ahead are eating their words today.

And that means Wall Street is eating its recent gains.

For nearly a month, the Dow has hovered around the 10,000 mark. After hundreds of billions of dollars were withdrawn earlier this year, it was relatively easy to put that money back to work and send the equities market higher.

But now that the economic data is showing facts of slower-than-expected expansion rather than “ideas” of growth, investors are forced to explain their logic. The Dow doesn’t want to budge from 10k.

So far, I’ve heard very

...

OUTLOOK The improving economic scene, both here in the U.S. as well as worldwide, is the main driver of the current oil rally that has seen the commodity settling around the $80 per barrel level. But high levels of product inventories (particularly gasoline), along with still higher supplies, will limit any sustained crude gains, in our view. But way too many factors weigh on oil prices, from OPEC decisions and geostrategic tensions to the value of the U.S. dollar and seasonal variables, to definitively size up each one of them for their respective impact on prices.  In its latest release, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a less-than-anticipated increase in crude stockpiles, which rose by 800,000 barrels for the week ending October 23. However, current crude oil stocks, at 339.9 million barrels, still remain 9% above the year-earlier level as well as above the upper limit ...

This post is a guest contribution by Dian Chu*, market analyst, trader and author of the Economic Forecasts and Opinions blog.

Last Friday, US crude oil futures finished above $78, the highest level in a year, surging more than 9% during the past week making it the largest weekly gain since the height of the summer driving season, even though the US continues to sit on ample supply of petroleum.

Given the continued sluggishness of the economy, high unemployment rate and large amounts of excess oil production capacity around the world, analysts said a sudden upward spike was still unlikely, while others are predicting an immanent correction down below $70.

However, if you take a closer look, it is evident that the current crude oil market is almost entirely detached from fundamentals. Furthermore, there are several factors supporting oil rising to new levels, as fundamentals are

...

According to ITAR-TASS, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has commented that Russia does not object to selling energy resources using domestic currencies.  How done is the Russia-China gas deal? wonders the the FT.  Gazprom will buy 500 million cubic meters of gas from Azerbaijan next year.  The Times has a piece on the 'take-and-pay' system which is now causing friction between suppliers and buyers.  Norway's Aladdin has signed a five-year contract to provide gas from a field in the Komi republic to a Gapzrom subsidiary.  ConocoPhillips is apparently 'non-committal' on a possible sale of its 20% stake in Lukoil.  Serbia expects as much as $13.4 billion to be invested in modernizing its energy sector by 2015, and is working with Gazprom.  Iraq has given a consortium led by Eni the right to develop its ...