Alcoa (AA) earnings are the traditional kick off of every quarterly earnings season. I don't really follow this name much simply because, while it's a basic material, aluminum is not exactly my favorite. But I'd like to show readers the reality behind the numbers, while the seals on CNBC were clapping and hooting and hollering about the "beat". I'd also like to show you a trend you will be seeing this earnings season, and the ones coming - higher input costs. And squeezed profit margins - we've been warning about this "era" coming since last summer. It's now here.First to the "great news" - Alcoa "beat" estimates - 66 cents versus 65 cents. So the seals cheer "better than expected". It's a joke. 90 days ago Alcoa was expected to do 77 cents, 60 days ago that was lowered ...

I wanted to follow up on the farm land, and related, stocks. Allow me to disclaim the hell out of this research. I do not vouch for the accuracy of any of the ticker symbols as things get lost in the translation going from the symbols on the local markets and the US five letter identifier. Further I have not done what I would call proper research on any of the names this merely an acknowledgment that these companies exist. This post is just my sharing what I have found so far but there is more looking still to be done. Remember the big macro which I think is that the dynamics of supply and demand for food are changing. There has been a combination of more demand from incrementally richer countries, investment demand for certain products, funky weather in some places (Australia had ...

On this week's earnings preview I wrote this in regards to Deere (DE):Major ag equipment player Deere (DE) - I don't own the equipment stocks anymore; at some point the rising cost of steel, petrol products and the like will be hurting the bottom line unless they can pass all the costs along to farmers - over the next year if inflation does not abate this is the type of company who could see profit margins squeezed simply from the constant increase in input costs.Here are the results - looks like a good call with the stock down 8%. Sometimes a rising tide (agriculture boom) does lift all boats. But sometimes you need to think farther ahead than that - as Wayne Gretzky says - don't be where the puck is, be where it's going to be. ("I ...