Stock Market News & Stocks to Watch from StraightStocks » inflation

Stock Market Corrections Are Beautiful— And Necessary

Steve Selengut — Thu, 16 Apr 2009 13:00:30 +0000

Every correction is the same, a normal downturn in one or more of the markets where we invest. There has never been a correction that has not proven to be an investment opportunity. You can be confident that governments around the world are not going to allow another Great Depression “on their [...]

Money Inflation vs Deflation and The Many Reasons

Investment Education Staff — Mon, 06 Apr 2009 11:23:03 +0000

Inflation & deflation and their many meanings, should be carefully dissected. Although both have similar meanings, deflation can differ a bit. Deflation can often be found to be the very reason for inflation. The solution for money inflation is the same for deflation. Deflation however often looks for increasing the value of money, but can in turn doing so, cause supply and demand to dwindle.

Exposing Three Myths of Deflation and Recession

Jim Musselwhite — Wed, 04 Feb 2009 18:49:34 +0000

This article is part of a syndicated series about deflation from market analyst Robert Prechter, the world’s foremost expert on and proponent of the deflationary [...]

Investment Grade Value Stocks At Ten Year Lows

Steve Selengut — Fri, 10 Oct 2008 01:46:04 +0000

There has never been a correction that has not proven to be an investment opportunity. While everything is down in price, there is actually less to worry about than when prices are historically high. More money has been lost by people who bought into last year’s markets than by those who will [...]

8 ETFs to Preserve Your Wealth

Simit Patel — Mon, 29 Sep 2008 10:11:11 +0000

As is becoming apparent, the US is heading towards a depression, and given the nature of the proposed bailouts as well as restrictions on short selling, it seems as though the depression will be inflationary. The most notable characteristic of an inflationary depression is currency devaluation. If that’s the case, how can [...]

Just How Bad is the US Stock Market Really Doing?

Simit Patel — Thu, 18 Sep 2008 17:59:38 +0000

It is no secret that the US stock market has been in trouble of late; the S&P 500 has been plunging, as has the Dow Jones Industrial Average. To properly understand what is going on, though, it is important to consider the Federal Reserve’s actions regarding expanding the money supply. The Fed’s [...]

Where is Your Gas Money Going?

Trader Mark — Sat, 12 Jul 2008 20:00:00 +0000

We've discussed this many times in the past [Jan 21: A Tour Through the Middle East] and as I wrote in JanuaryWhile we wring our collective hands about how the infrastructure companies are going to lose all their business as crude drops from $100 to $7...

Video: Buffett Concerned About “Stag” and “Flation”

Prieur du Plessis — Thu, 26 Jun 2008 07:48:36 +0000

Warren Buffett said yesterday that he was concerned about "stagflation", or slowing in the US economy while inflation accelerates. "I think the 'flation' part will heat up and I think the 'stag' part will get worse." This video clip makes for interesti...

Oil and Gas Prices Peaking?

Larry Edelson — Thu, 26 Jun 2008 07:30:00 +0000

No surprise from the Fed yesterday. Their feeble statements about inflation just prove what I've said all along: When considering deflation or inflation, the Federal Reserve will ...

Fed Policymakers Look to Juggle Inflation, Stagnation

Money Morning — Mon, 23 Jun 2008 11:21:25 +0000

By Jennifer Yousfi Managing Editor The U.S. Federal Reserve faces a tough challenge as it kicks off a two-day policymaking meeting tomorrow (Tuesday): It probably needs to start raising... Money Morning is here to help investors profit handsomel...

Inflation out of control! What to do …

Mike Larson — Fri, 20 Jun 2008 07:30:00 +0000

I hate to be the one to yell "FIRE" in a crowded theatre. But the time for keeping quiet has long since passed. The time for ignoring the gathering clouds of smoke is over. It's time to sit ...

Inflation To Inevitably Surge Even Higher!

Larry Edelson — Thu, 19 Jun 2008 07:30:00 +0000

I first met Martin about 14 years ago, at the Weiss School in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida, where I had enrolled my three young children. Martin was running his research and ratings ...

Making Runs, Agriculture and the Dollar Looking for Higher Ground

Market Speculator — Mon, 16 Jun 2008 10:34:44 +0000

After a large run up in Q1 of this year Agriculture related commodities pulled significantly. Its not uncommon for futures to take a dive after such a large run up. However, a few short months later agriculture commodities are at it again. Check out the chart of DBA: Right side of this chart [...]

Triple Crisis: Your First Defense

Martin D. Weiss, Ph.D. — Mon, 16 Jun 2008 07:30:00 +0000

I've lived through four U.S. recessions, two bouts of surging inflation and at least two close encounters with a Wall Street meltdown. But this is the first time in my lifetime — and probably ...

Nikkei Weekly Outlook: Eyes on I-banks, Inflation, Yen (EWJ)

Steven Towns — Mon, 16 Jun 2008 00:36:33 +0000

The Nikkei had a rough go last week indeed, losing 3.6% and the 14,000-level (13,973.73); TOPIX fell to 1,371.57 after a short-lived recovery of 1,400 two weeks ago. No worries though, as Chicago Nikkei 225 futures not only held 14k, but added 140 points to the upside (14,220) setting the stage for a gap up [...]

Investors Will Watch as Inflation Dominates the Spotlight This Week

William Patalon lll — Sun, 15 Jun 2008 23:50:37 +0000

By William Patalon III Executive Editor Money Morning/The Money Map Report Investors better keep an eye on bonds this week. While the stock market may be more fun to follow, fixed income is often... Money Morning is here to help investors profit h...

CNBC Bonus Bucks Trivia: In Bob Pisani’s blog post, “Global Theme: Inflation Worries” how many nations does he specifically name?

William Trent — Thu, 12 Jun 2008 18:43:01 +0000

In Bob Pisani’s blog post, “Global Theme: Inflation Worries” how many nations does he specifically name? In China, a measure of inflation at the factory rose 8.2 percent in May, the highest in nearly four years, thanks to higher raw material costs. Inflation in Asia is a particular concern, because many countries there have very little [...]

Financials Headed For New Lows, Stocks Lack Buying Interest

Market Speculator — Thu, 12 Jun 2008 11:09:29 +0000

Financials continue to feel max pain as major banks continue to be hammered by selling. The exotic forms of investment continue to haunt those firms who were careless and did not handle risk properly. Selling has spread throughout the rest of the market as Crude Oil prices race higher. We are also seeing Grains and [...]

Mid Morning

Roger Nusbaum — Tue, 10 Jun 2008 16:36:00 +0000

I have been interested in and invested in Vietnam since the fall of 2006. I bought the Vietnam Opportunity Fund (VOF.L) at $2.48, sold half of it at $4.73 a few months later and still have some shares now trading at $1.99.

The fund hovered along at down a little for the year before starting to swoon about a month ago, consistent with the VN Index which is down 59% YTD.

The GDP has been en fuego, but less than in China, which has proven too hot to handle as now inflation appears to be running at 25-30%.

As I wrote several times along the way about Vietnam, a destination like this is going to have huge booms and huge busts along the way.

The story on the ground, which of course includes the inflation right here right now, is still the same. An average age in the early 20's and a 70 million population in a country that will modernize and become more economically relevant.

I don't discount the luck factor in leaving me with just having the house's money left in the position.

There will soon be frontier market ETFs coming. It can be easy to forget but these things are not one-way trades. When the downturns come they are big and can last for a while.

None this means the asset class lacks viability but it hopefully makes the point for why I favor moderation in this sorts of themes. After selling down the position I was left with about a 1% portfolio weighting. If the fund had doubled again over the rest of 2007 it would have added 100 basis points to the overall portfolio which becomes a meaningful number when your benchmark is up mid single digits.

Obviously the fund did not double again. In dropping by 60% since that sale it has created a very small drag on the portfolio for the literal handful of clients that own it (I own it personally as well).

Vietnam going up a lot did not make the thesis right. Now that it is down a lot the thesis is not wrong. Committing to a frontier destination should be thought of as a very long term proposition that will not be right for everyone.

When the ETFs come out you need to really look in the mirror and know what you can withstand before buying one of them.

MARKET COMMENT June 9, 2008 Beneath the bullish headlines market internals weren’t very pretty.

David Fry — Mon, 09 Jun 2008 22:09:22 +0000

MARKET COMMENT June 9, 2008 Beneath the bullish headlines market internals weren’t very pretty. The only impressive thing today is markets gapped higher rather than lower at the opening. Given the viciousness of Friday’s sell-off some follow-thru selling would have been expected. Oil prices fell back 3% and home sales data were above expectations.

Monday Is Chart Day – Oil, Gold, Corn and More

Sean Brodrick — Mon, 09 Jun 2008 15:07:10 +0000

All CNBC can talk about this morning is Lehman Brothers. How many people does that effect? Meanwhile, oil is not pulling back much from its biggest one-day surge EVER on Friday. Don’t you think that deserves more headline time? The average price of a gallon of gasoline in the United States hit $4 for the first time ever Sunday. I think that affects a heck of a lot more people than Lehman Brothers. More on gasoline prices HERE.Gold Rises in London as Dollar, Near-Record Oil Heighten Inflation Concern Gold rose for a second consecutive trading session in London as the dollar declined and oil traded close to a record, bolstering demand for the metal as a hedge against a weaker U.S. currency and faster inflation. Corn Climbs to Record on U.S. Midwest Flooding; Soybeans, Wheat, Rice Gain Corn jumped to a record as rain in the U.S. Midwest flooded fields, delaying planting and threatening to reduce crops. Soybeans, wheat and rice also gained as soaring oil costs and the dollar's drop boosted demand for an inflation hedge.Now to the charts …

More Bernanke BS!

Larry Edelson — Tue, 03 Jun 2008 16:46:12 +0000

In a speech this morning at an international monetary conference in Spain, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke took the unusual step of speaking out on the dollar saying that the central bank is "attentive" to the weak U.S. dollar and that it has contributed to an “unwelcome rise” in inflation. He went on to say that over time, Fed policy will be a key factor "ensuring that the dollar remains a strong, stable currency."For some reason the markets were surprised by this. I wasn’t. What else did they expect him to say? That he supports a weak dollar? Of course not. Central bankers can talk about how they are going to control inflation, and not let it get out of hand, but their actions will be entirely different. Regardless of what Bernanke says, our own Federal Reserve wants the dollar pushed lower and as much asset inflation as possible because it’s the only way they can deal with the massive mountains of debt that exists in the U.S. — by inflating them away. And no matter what the dollar does short-term, long-term I believe the value of the dollar can slump another 30-40%. As for gold, it plunged sharply this morning back to the $880 level on Bernanke’s comments, and is likely headed lower. Probably down to the $850 level before it stages it’s next leg up.

Tim Seymour Recommends Investing in Brazil

CEO Blogger — Wed, 28 May 2008 23:31:16 +0000

Seymour talked about emerging markets and pointed to Brazil’s relatively low inflation (4.5%) and strong currency. Plus, the Brazilian economy is smoking hot right now, and consumers in the country are spending. Seymour recommended three stocks, including Unibanco, Perdigao, and Companhia Sanea. Track the performance of these stocks at: http://www.trackthepros.com/categories.php?category_id=161 Also, his 18 Global Trades recommended on 3/12 [...]

2 Emerging markets, 2 different stories.

Vlada Kynsky — Wed, 28 May 2008 17:53:00 +0000

With recent interest rate decisions I had closer look into 2 emerging markets in Central Europe. Hungary and Poland. Hungarian central bank again by 25bp (to 8,5%) to tighten monetary policy. Currently highest interest rates since January 2005. Bank acted mainly because of upward inflation. Its outlook has been raised from 3,6% to 4,2%.

Economic picture doesn't look very well. Retail sales down by -4% or construction down by -11%. Industrial output remains positive but with sharp decline to 4%. Numbers are year on year basis. GDP growth stays already one year below 1%. And with current high interest rates it's hard to see soon any revival.

Polish central bank left rates unchanged on 5,75%. The decision mainly taken by better than expected inflation reading (4%). Unemployment shows very positive trend and latest number is 7,7%. Retail sales up by +17,6. Industrial output up by +15%. Nevertheless GDP growth is expected to slow down from 7% to 5,5%, Poland still shows signs of healthy economy.

Nikkei Weekly Outlook: Resiliency or Reluctance at 14,000 (EWJ)?

Steven Towns — Mon, 26 May 2008 00:14:24 +0000

What to watch: Thursday, May 29: U.S. Revised Q1 GDP; Friday, May 30: CPI for April (May for select metropolitan areas); April - Industrial Production; April - Household income and expenditure survey; April - New housing starts; April - Unemployment and Ratio of Job Offers to Applicants Ongoing: Commodities and forex volatility — more inflation reporting [...]

REITs Outperform Stocks & Direct Real Estate

Richard Shaw — Wed, 21 May 2008 00:52:58 +0000

It is ironic that US REITs year-to-date have outperformed US stocks, non-US developed market stocks, and emerging market stocks, as well as directly owned commercial and residential real estate. Only commodities have outperformed REITs so far this year. VNQ, ICF, IYR and RWR are still down from 17% to 20% on a trailing 12-month basis, but they provide a [...]

Deere (DE) Earnings – Why I’m Avoiding Equipment Stocks

Trader Mark — Wed, 14 May 2008 15:59:00 +0000

On this week's earnings preview I wrote this in regards to Deere (DE):Major ag equipment player Deere (DE) - I don't own the equipment stocks anymore; at some point the rising cost of steel, petrol products and the like will be hurting the bottom line ...

CNBC Bonus Bucks Trivia: On Monday, April 28, James Altucher of Formula Capital recommended which food-inflation trade to CNBC viewers?

William Trent — Mon, 12 May 2008 17:12:13 +0000

On Monday, April 28, James Altucher of Formula Capital recommended which food-inflation trade to CNBC viewers? Picks included Sysco (SYY) and Sadia (SDA) while pans included General Mills (GIS), McDonald’s (MCD - Annual Report) and Kellogg (K).

Forced Labor

Condor Options — Thu, 08 May 2008 16:54:03 +0000

Yesterday we learned that non-farm productivity rose 2.2% in the first quarter of this year. Anyone who was working in an office or factory when the last recession hit in 2001 knows what that means—a lot of people have been laid off or had their hours cut back, and the lucky ones who haven’t are [...]

Bookkeeping: Adding Back Gafisa (GFA) in Scale

Trader Mark — Tue, 06 May 2008 13:44:00 +0000

Gafisa (GFA) is trading back down almost text book post earnings; could not ask for a better trade than what we just enjoyed here.We doubled (0.9% stake to 1.8% stake) the position last Monday near $38We took out a smaller portion at $43 WednesdayWe to...

CNG food?

Wayne Koh — Mon, 28 Apr 2008 15:19:00 +0000

No, it's not the CNG you think it is. Amid the recent high food inflation and record prices of rice, it is a relief to find some businesses in Singapore that do not raise prices but attempt to sell more in place of thinning profits. (薄利多销）。 Today I came across the Straits Times and saw an article on the launch of a community website, www.ekampong.com.sg ; in particular, the article zooms in on