We've discussed this many times in the past [Jan 21: A Tour Through the Middle East] and as I wrote in January While we wring our collective hands about how the infrastructure companies are going to lose all their business as crude drops from $100 to $75, and projects will be cancelled due to their rich customers actually giving a rat's behind if crude is $100 or $75 let's take a look at reality. I noticed a story in the NY Times this weekend on Saudi Arabia - so I'd like to overlay that with just a snapshot of what is going on in some of the other countries in this part of the world - the Kuwaits, the Oman's, the Abu Dhabi's, the Qatar's.... ... because perhaps I think most of us still are very inward looking as Americans and do not realize ...

Warren Buffett talks with Bloomberg’s Josh Hamilton in New York about Buffett’s philanthropic efforts, US economic policy and the Federal Reserve’s efforts to support the US financial industry.

Buffett said that he was concerned about “stagflation”, or slowing in the US economy while inflation accelerates. “We’re right in the middle of it right now,” said Buffett, chairman of Omaha, Nebraska-based Berkshire Hathaway. “I think the ‘flation’ part will heat up and I think the ‘stag’ part will get worse.”

He said the US housing slump has been a drag on Berkshire’s earnings, adding that he was unsure when the economy would recover. “It’s not going to be tomorrow, it’s not going to be next month, and may not even be next year,” said Buffett.

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No surprise from the Fed yesterday. Their feeble statements about inflation just prove what I've said all along: When considering deflation or inflation, the Federal Reserve will always opt for the lesser of the two evils, inflation! Nevertheless, many of the so-called experts on Wall Street seem to think that oil and gas prices can't go any higher ... that China's raising its domestic energy prices will kill demand ... that the bull market in natural resources and the jumps in inflation are over. I believe they are wrong. Dead wrong. Why? All of my experience ... all of my indicators ... all of my proprietary cyclical and technical models tell me oil and gas prices are headed much higher ... natural resources are going to double ... triple and even quadruple ...

By Jennifer Yousfi Managing Editor The U.S. Federal Reserve faces a tough challenge as it kicks off a two-day policymaking meeting tomorrow (Tuesday): It probably needs to start raising interest rates to prop up the U.S. dollar and offset a major escalation in inflationary pressures; but the economy needs low interest rates if it’s to maintain its anemic growth rate. After one of the Fed’s most aggressive rate-cutting campaigns ever slashed short-term interest rates from 5.25% in mid-September to 2.0% now, experts now expect the central bank to reverse course. And this week’s two-day meeting of the policymaking Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) represents the first chance for the central bank to boost its benchmark Federal Funds rate. Recent hawkish comments by central bank Chairman Ben S. Bernanke had led some analysts to expect a 25-basis point rate increase at this meeting, but ...

I hate to be the one to yell "FIRE" in a crowded theatre. But the time for keeping quiet has long since passed. The time for ignoring the gathering clouds of smoke is over. It's time to sit up, pay attention, and get your portfolio the heck out of harm's way ... because we have a full-scale, five-alarm, inflationary wildfire on our hands. Allow me to walk you through the overwhelming, undeniable evidence ... Import prices are soaring at an astronomical rate The government's policy of ignoring the dollar's decline is leading to astronomical increases in the cost of imported goods. In the month of May alone, import costs jumped 2.3%. That came on the heels of a 2.4% rise in April and a 3% increase in March. But the year-over-year comparisons are even ...

I first met Martin about 14 years ago, at the Weiss School in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida, where I had enrolled my three young children. Martin was running his research and ratings company on the east side of the building, while his wife, Elisabeth, was running the school, on the west side of the building. I don't know how Martin found time to do it, but in between all his writing and speaking engagements, he taught Japanese to the children, and my daughter was one of his students. After class one day, she gave him a report I had written years before, predicting the boom and bust in the stock market, an eventual bull market in gold and commodities, and a whopping surge in inflation. All that despite the fact that it was the ...

After a large run up in Q1 of this year Agriculture related commodities pulled significantly. Its not uncommon for futures to take a dive after such a large run up. However, a few short months later agriculture commodities are at it again. Check out the chart of DBA: Right side of this chart is quite compelling has buying interest has shown up in recent weeks. With talk increasing about inflation and what the FOMC will do to combat it will certainly bring attention, once again to agriculture related commodities. Speaking of inflation and FOMC the dollar has been on a tear as of late. Ben Bernanke has recently been taking a stand regarding the stance the FOMC is taking. This certainly helps the dampen the fear that the market will continue to have an oversupply of dollars. The next ...

I've lived through four U.S. recessions, two bouts of surging inflation and at least two close encounters with a Wall Street meltdown. But this is the first time in my lifetime — and probably yours — that all three have converged in one time and place. It's an unprecedented Triple Crisis. And despite repeated Wall Street attempts to deny it — including a new round of cheerleading Friday in response to stronger-than-expected retail sales numbers — the severity of the Triple Crisis is undeniable: We have the worst food and energy price inflation since the early 1980s. We've just seen the worst surge in unemployment in 22 years. And ... Financial institutions continue to book the biggest losses of all time, with more than double the losses yet ...

The Nikkei had a rough go last week indeed, losing 3.6% and the 14,000-level (13,973.73); TOPIX fell to 1,371.57 after a short-lived recovery of 1,400 two weeks ago. No worries though, as Chicago Nikkei 225 futures not only held 14k, but added 140 points to the upside (14,220) setting the stage for a gap up on Monday (Osaka N225 futures: 13,980). The Bank of Japan held its benchmark rate at 0.5%, as expected; meanwhile, the yen has eased to its weakest level against the dollar, ¥108/$1, since late February. Inflation and U.S. i-bank earnings will weigh heavy on sentiment this week. Lehman (LEH: 25.81 +13.70%) leads off on Monday, 6/16, Goldman (GS: 178.29 +6.92%) is up on Tuesday, 6/17 and Morgan (MS: 41.04 +6.93%) reports on Wednesday, 6/18. Circuit City (...

By William Patalon lll Investors better keep an eye on bonds this week. While the stock market may be more fun to follow, fixed income is often a stronger gauge of investor expectations of the economy, future U.S. Federal Reserve policy, and inflation. With the consumer price index (CPI) safely in the books for another month, economists can now turn their focus to wholesale inflation with the release of the May producer price index (PPI). Economists, mistakenly, often disregard the energy component of this data each month and focus mainly on the so-called “core” releases - which excludes “volatile food and energy prices.” While food and energy prices often suffer from month-to-month volatility based on seasonal factors, they cannot be overlooked these days as they continue to have significant impact on the global economy. Also, Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (LEH) can’t seem ...