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Gold Buyers Smash Records

Contrarian Profits (December 4th, 2008) Writes:

The spot price of gold has fallen more than 20% from its all-time high, reached in March of 2008. But if you think that means demand has declined, think again.

Gold demand has in fact exploded, and not just here and there. Everywhere. Around the world, customers have been queuing up to strip coin shops’ shelves bare. Mints have been running 24/7 and still have been forced to ration coin shipments to their dealers. ETF vaults are bulging.

Now, the World Gold Council has confirmed the trend with hard numbers for the third quarter of this year. In a page-and-a-half press release summarizing 3Q2008 activity, the WGC had to use the word “record” ten times. Some highlights:

Dollar demand for gold in Q3 was a record US$32 billion, 45% higher than the previous record, set in 2Q2008. Identifiable investment demand, which incorporates demand for gold through exchange-traded funds (ETFs), bars and coins, rose to ...

Why Gold Will Soar As Fiat Currencies Crumble

Contrarian Profits (December 3rd, 2008) Writes:

The short-term path of gold is still unclear says David Galland. But its a good sign that demand for physical gold soars when prices tip towards $750 an ounce. And this threshold is likely to creep upwards as the US dollar loses its worth, and foreign governments convert currency reserves for the precious metal.

This from Money Morning:

Of late, I have read a number of analysts, Jim Rogers even, who have expressed the view that gold could dip to the mid- to low $600 level.

It could happen, but I think not. Already, buyers of physical gold are finding anything near $700 to be cheap and are helping to build a floor under the monetary metal. On that topic, a friend sent this item along recently:

(Gulf News, Nov. 12) Riyadh: There has been an unprecedented demand for gold in the Saudi market recently, with over 13 billion Saudi riyals ($3.47

...

Bailouts Are Setting Us Up For A Bigger Crisis

Andrew Gordon (December 3rd, 2008) Writes:

The government is banking on the American consumer to rescue the economy. But debt-ridden households have had enough, says Andrew Gordon. He says the government’s massive bailout are benefiting very few in the short-term. But the long-term consequences will be felt by all.

This from Investor’s Daily Edge:

The government’s latest bailout moves have me scratching my head. It’s throwing $200 billion worth of guarantees at recent and current loans tied to consumer and small-business spending.

Hank and Ben want the consumer to bail out the economy. And they want to do it by putting consumers deeper into debt.

They don’t get it.

They don’t get that consumers are tapped out.

What do they think when they see numbers that show that American households are in deeper debt than ever before? Or when they see that consumer spending in October fell the most in

...

DOW Remains a Hold for Near Term - Analyst Blog

Zacks Market Commentaries (December 3rd, 2008) Writes:
The Dow Chemical Company (DOW) is the largest producer of plastics and second-leading chemical company in the world. Vertical integration keeps cost low. Stronger demand in Europe, Asia Pacific, Latin America, India, Middle East and Africa has more than offset the continued economic slowdown in North America. Moreover, price gains have largely offset significant increases in costs of feedstock and energy. The company's recently completed joint venture agreement with Petrochemical Industries Company of Kuwait is expected to reduce cyclicality in the chemical business. Further, its merger with Rohm and Haas will consolidate higher margin and higher growth specialty businesses and reduce the volatility in earnings and cash flow.However, high raw material costs have forced the company to temporarily idle or reduce production at several of its plants. Further, Dow has a high exposure to the commodity chemical cycle. We expect earnings to remain under ...

Non-U.S. Banks

Zacks Market Commentaries (December 3rd, 2008) Writes:
We expect stock prices to remain volatile and susceptible to headline risk. Moreover, depreciation of many foreign currencies relative to the US$ is depressing US$ stock prices. Combined with the grim economic outlook for many economies ranging from outright recession in developed economies to slowing growth in emerging market economies, we expect share price performance to continue to weaken.

As in the US, non-US bank stocks have been hammered this year due to the financial problems that began in the US subprime mortgage market and spread globally to engulf many major financial institutions in most countries. The median stock price decline for non-US bank in the Zacks' universe is 57.5% compared to a loss of 42.1% for the S&P 500. This includes median price declines for non-US banks in the Zacks' universe

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Gold Eases on Firm Dollar Ahead of Data, Rate Cuts

Contrarian Profits (December 3rd, 2008) Writes:

Dollar firms vs euro ahead of expected ECB rate cut… Traders eye U.S. data, central bank rate cuts for impetus… U.S. November car sales tumble 37 pctGold eased on Wednesday as the dollar firmed against the euro, denting the metal’s appeal as a currency hedge, with traders awaiting a raft of key economic news due later this week.

A spate of interest rate decisions, including that of the European Central Bank on Thursday, are set to influence the currency markets, and key U.S. non-farm payrolls numbers will be released on Friday.

Spot gold slipped to $773.05/775.05 an ounce at 1000 GMT from $781.50 an ounce in New York late on Tuesday.

“This is a big week for news, and a lot of people will be on the sidelines ahead of that,” Afshin Nabavi, head of trading at MKS Finance, said. “This is going to be

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Gold is a “Buy” at $750 or Less … But in the Low $600 Range, it Will be an Absolute Steal

Money Morning (December 3rd, 2008) Writes:
By David Galland Editor, The Casey Report Of late, I have read a number of analysts, Jim Rogers even, who have expressed the view that gold could dip to the mid- to low $600 level. It could happen, but I think not. Already, buyers of physical gold are finding anything near $700 to be cheap and are helping to build a floor under the monetary metal. On that topic, a friend sent this item along recently: (Gulf News, Nov. 12) Riyadh: There has been an unprecedented demand for gold in the Saudi market recently, with over 13 billion Saudi riyals ($3.47 billion) being spent on the yellow metal during the prior two weeks. Demand is expected to rise still higher as more investors turn to gold as a safe haven in the midst of the global financial crisis, according to market sources. Sami Al Mohna, an ...

Base Metals Goin’ Nowhere

Doug Casey (December 2nd, 2008) Writes:

The base metals were all mired in the red on Monday. Copper was in the green until the late pre-dawn hours, but fell off the rest of the day, only coming slightly off its intraday lows to finish at $1.6186/lb., down 2¼ cents from Friday.

Nickel sagged from the pre-dawn hours all the way through, closing at its intraday low of $4.3681/lb., down 8 cents. Zinc was in the green until the noon hour, but then it too sold off, ending at its intraday low of $0.525/lb., down nearly a penny. Aluminum had another weak day, shedding a penny and a half to $0.7575/lb., while lead gave up just over a penny, to $0.4837/lb.

Copper was off, albeit perhaps not as much as might have been expected considering the selloffs in other markets, as well as the gloomy news that keeps piling up.

In addition to the grim purchasing managers’ indexes from the

...

Gold Recovers as Dollar Falls on Rising Equities

Contrarian Profits (December 2nd, 2008) Writes:

Dollar weakens against euro as U.S. equities gain… Oil recovers from 3-1/2 year low … Traders look to U.S. auto sales figures to guide platinum

Gold climbed 1 percent on Tuesday, reversing earlier losses, as the dollar weakened against the euro on firming U.S. equity markets and oil prices recovered from 3-1/2 year lows.

Spot gold was quoted at $781.70/783.70 an ounce at 1522 GMT, up from $770.60 an ounce late in New York on Monday.

“Oil recovered and the euro-dollar is higher,” said Wolfgang Wrzesniok-Rossbach, head of sales at precious metals group Heraeus. “Those are the main reasons for the move.”

“The outlook from here really depends on the leading indicators, as well as oil and the dollar,” he added.

Gold slipped in earlier trade, extending the previous session’s losses, as the dollar firmed against the euro and oil prices sank,

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Why You Must Include Gold In Your Portfolio For 2009

Contrarian Profits (December 2nd, 2008) Writes:

Gold bugs have suffered one of their worst years in history, says Keith Fitz-Gerald. But the US dollar looks increasingly fragile beyond this period of short-term panic buying. And that means the outlook for gold remains strong. Keith says every investor should ensure gold forms part of their investment strategy for 2009.

This from Money Morning:

If you were counting on gold to boost your returns this year, chances are you’ve been cruelly disappointed. In fact, when it comes to gold-related investments, virtually every category is down, making this one of the worst years in history for gold investors.

So, why is it that the largest of the large futures traders have some of the lowest net short positions in years? And what does this tell us about gold prices in the near future?

I’ll get to that in a minute. But first …

What Went Wrong?

In my analysis, I’ve identified the

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