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Illinois Tool Offers Bright Outlook – Analyst Blog

Zacks Market Commentaries — Wed, 17 Mar 2010 15:59:22 +0000

Recently, Illinois Tool Works Inc. (ITW) reported a year-on-year increase of 10% in total operating revenue for the three months ended Feb 28, 2010.

Base revenues contributed 2% to revenue growth, and acquisitions and currency translation added 2% and 6%, respectively. The improvement in base revenue was largely due to increased production by global automotive manufacturers as well as modest improvement in the industrial packaging and polymers and fluids end-markets.

Illinois Tool Works reported encouraging results during the fourth quarter of 2009 with EPS of 98 cents, a 66% increase compared to the fourth quarter of 2008. Illinois Tool Works continues to see the benefits of ongoing restructuring activities and improvements in discrete end-markets in the most recent quarter.

First quarter of 2010 will end on Mar 30, 2010. After two months of encouraging results in the first quarter as well as excellent results during the fourth quarter of 2009, Illinois Tool Works revised its EPS estimate. The company now expects EPS in the range of 52 cents to 60 cents from 48 cents to 60 cents. First quarter revenue growth is estimated in the range of 13% to 15%.

For full-year 2010, Illinois Tool Works is forecasting EPS in a range of $2.43 to $2.93. The 2010 full-year forecast assumes a total revenue growth of 10% to 14%.

Illinois Tool Works is a multinational manufacturer of a diversified range of value-added and short lead-time industrial products and equipment. The company has grown substantially driven by its ability to develop new and improved products and through numerous acquisitions. Thus, we reiterate our Neutral recommendation on the stock.
Read the full analyst report on "ITW"
Zacks Investment Research

Illinois Tool Works Sees Growth – Analyst Blog

Zacks Market Commentaries — Tue, 16 Feb 2010 22:31:57 +0000

Illinois Tool Works Inc. (ITW) reported operating revenue for the three months ended January 31, 2010. During the quarter, total operating revenue increased 5% year over year. The growth in revenue was due to acquisitions and currency translation, which contributed 1% and 6%, respectively.

Although base revenue declined 2%, it improved versus the fourth quarter of 2009 when base revenue fell 10% on a year-over-year basis. The sequential base revenue improvement was largely due to easier January comparisons and the substantial improvement in the North American automotive OEM end market.

Fourth quarter 2009 operating revenues of $3,757 million were 5% lower than the year-ago period. The company's base revenues declined 10% with North American base revenues declining 10.9% and international base revenues decreasing 9%.

During the fourth quarter of 2009, EPS was 98 cents, a 66% increase compared to the fourth quarter of 2008. The company continues to see the benefits of ongoing restructuring activities and improvements in discrete end-markets in the most recent quarter. However, full-year EPS totaled $1.93, a 40% decline versus 2008.

The company believes most end markets have stabilized and anticipates modest expansion in a variety of worldwide end markets in 2010. ITW is estimating first quarter 2010 EPS to be in a range of 48 cents to 60 cents. The 2010 first quarter forecast assumes a total revenue growth range of 14% to 18%.

For full-year 2010, the company is forecasting EPS to be in a range of $2.43 to $2.93. The 2010 full-year forecast assumes a total revenue growth range of 10% to 14%.

Read the full analyst report on "ITW"
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Zacks Earnings Trends Highlights: Caterpillar, Eaton and Illinois Tool Works – Press Releases

Dirk Van Dijk — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 12:30:14 +0000

For Immediate Release

Chicago, IL – November 17, 2009 - Zacks Research Equity Strategist, Dirk Van Dijk says that S&P 500 earnings are continuing to show red ink. He tracks companies on the Zacks.com web site, naming names, while forecasting trends for the months ahead.

Great Earnings Season Coming to an End

It’s almost time to close the books on a fantastic earnings season. With over 90% of reports in, there have been 353 which have exceeded expectations while only 66 have fallen short, a ratio of 5.35. While it is true that most companies will normally try to under-promise and over-deliver, this quarter the beats are beating the misses by about twice the normal margin of 3:1.

Nor have all the surprises only been by a penny or two, but there have been lots of companies that simply crushed the earnings estimates. The median surprise is a very high 7.11%. Over the last five years, a median surprise of about 3.0% has been normal.

Part of the reason is that expectations were set very low going into the earnings season. For most companies, their earnings are still below year-ago levels, just not as far down as people thought they would be. Only 202 firms have posted positive year-over-year growth versus 259 which have fallen short of year-ago levels -- a ratio of 0.78.

The disparity between firms beating estimates but having negative year-over-year earnings growth is particularly noticeable in Tech, where the earnings surprise ratio is an awesome 8.50. However, the growth ratio (# of firms with positive growth/# of firms with negative growth) is just 0.60. Energy’s surprise ratio is not quite as high, at 3.38, but the disparity to its growth ratio, at just 0.05, is extreme. Staples and Medical have been both growing earnings and beating expectations.

For Industrials, some of the firms in this sector that have seen double-digit increases in both their mean estimate, and double digit numbers of estimate increases and had no cuts over the last month include Caterpillar (CAT), Eaton (ETN) and Illinois Tool Works (ITW).

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Zacks Investment Research

Zacks Earnings Trends Highlights: Caterpillar, Eaton and Illinois Tool Works – Press Releases

Dirk Van Dijk — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 14:00:18 +0000

For Immediate Release

Chicago, IL – November 11, 2009 - Zacks Research Equity Strategist, Dirk Van Dijk says that S&P 500 earnings are continuing to show red ink. He tracks companies on the Zacks.com web site, naming names, while forecasting trends for the months ahead.

Earnings Season in Home Stretch

For a large sector, the revisions ratio of 9.07 for the Industrials is extremely impressive, and would seem to support the idea that the economy is gaining some real traction. More than five times as many firms in the sector saw their mean estimate for 2010 rise over the last month than suffered a decline in their expectations.

Some of the firms in the sector that have seen double-digit increases in both their mean estimate and double-digit numbers of estimate increases and have had no cuts over the last month include Caterpillar (CAT), Eaton (ETN) and Illinois Tool Works (ITW).

Want stock picks from Zacks Equity Research that are based on earnings estimates? Subscribe to the free "Profit from the Pros" newsletter: http://at.zacks.com/?id=5617.

About Zacks Equity Research

Zacks Equity Research provides the best of quantitative and qualitative analysis to help investors know what stocks to buy and which to sell for the long-term.

Zacks "Profit from the Pros" e-mail newsletter provides highlights of the latest analysis from Zacks Equity Research. Subscribe to this free newsletter today: http://at.zacks.com/?id=5618.

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Earnings Season in Home Stretch – Earnings Trends

Dirk Van Dijk — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 05:00:00 +0000

Key Points:
•    Earnings Surprise Ratio (#beat/#miss) at 5.47, almost double normal
•    Median Earnings Surprise 7.11%, very strong
•    Year over year Earnings Growth Ratio (# Pos Growth/# Neg Growth) at 0.77
•    Sales Surprise Ratio at 1.37
•    Sales Growth Ratio at just 0.40
•    Total Net Income for S&P 500 reported so far is 11.6% below what those same 444 firms reported a year ago, 11.8% above what they earned in the 2Q09
•    Total S&P 500 Revenues reported so far down 13.4% year over year, up 2.0% from 2Q09
•    2009 Earnings Revisions ratio for full S&P 500 up to 3.05, up from 2.48 last week
•    2010 ratio at 2.14, down slightly from 2.17 last week
•    S&P500 expected to earn $570.6 billion in 2008, $706.8 billion in 2010
•    Bottom Up estimates: $61.62 for 2009, $76.70 for 2010
•    Top Down estimates: $54.38 for 2009, $70.05 for 2010

Welcome to the new Earnings Trends. We have decided to start focusing our analysis of the S&P 500 based on Zacks' own sector groupings rather than the S&P GICS sectors. There are 16 Zacks sectors and only 10 GICS sectors, so the new groupings will result in better granularity of the data. The old way simply grouped too many very different companies together. In addition, we for the first time are presenting top-line as well as bottom-line expectations and surprise information. This is very much a work in progress, and we will be adding additional information, tables and perhaps even some graphs over the next few months.

It’s almost time to close the books on a fantastic earnings season. With almost 90% of reports in, there have been 339 that have exceeded expectations while only 62 have fallen short -- a ratio of 5.47. While it is true that most companies will normally try to under-promise and over-deliver, this quarter the beats are beating the misses by about twice the normal margin of 3:1.

Nor have all the surprises only been by a penny or two, but there have been lots of companies that simply crushed their earnings estimates. The median surprise is a very high 7.11%. Over the last five years, a median surprise of about 3.0% has been normal. Part of the reason is that expectations were set very low going into the earnings season.

For most companies, their earnings are still below year ago levels, just not as far down as people thought they would be. Only 193 firms have posted positive year-over-year growth, versus 251 that have fallen short of year-ago levels -- a ratio of 0.77.

The disparity between firms beating estimates but having negative year-over-year earnings growth is particularly noticeable in Tech, where the earnings surprise ratio is an awesome 9.25. However, the growth ratio (# of firms with positive growth/# of firms with negative growth) is just 0.49. A similar situation, but not quite as extreme, is true for Materials. Staples and Medical have been both growing earnings and beating expectations.

On the top line, it has also been a successful season so far (relative to expectations), but in terms of actual year-over-year growth it has been downright ugly The total revenues of the 444 firms that have already reported are 13.4% below year-ago levels. A total of 241 firms have reported higher-than-expected revenues, versus 176 that have disappointed, for a ratio of 1.37. On the other hand, only 127 actually had higher sales than a year ago, versus 314 with lower revenues, a ratio of 0.40. Put another way, only 28.6% of all firms reporting so far have had higher sales than a year ago.

In other words, cost-cutting has been the major force driving earnings and earnings surprises. However, the costs to one company are either the revenues of another company or someone’s paycheck, which is then spent to create revenues for firms. The bottom-up data coming out of all these individual firms seems to confirm what we have been getting from the government's macro statistics. The economy is growing due to increases in productivity. Higher GDP with fewer workers.

However, the strategy seems to be working, as earnings are coming in much better than expected and analysts have responded by increasing earnings estimates for 2009. The estimate increases are widespread across sectors, with five sectors seeing more than five increases for each cut. No sector is seeing more cuts than increases.

For the S&P 500 as a whole, the revisions ratio now stands at 3.26, its highest level in over a year and in distinct contrast to earlier in the year when it fell below 0.15 at one point. The better-than-expected earnings are translating into estimate increases for 2010 as well as 2009, with a revisions ratio of 2.15 for next year.

Scorecard & Earnings Surprise
•    Season almost over -- 444, or 88.8% of reports in
•    Data presented reflects only firms that have reported so far
•    Reports so far extremely positive relative to expectations
•    Earnings Surprise Ratio (#beat/#miss) at 5.47
•    Medical almost perfect with a ratio of 35 to 1, Staples strong with a ratio of 11.3
•    Median Earnings Surprise 7.11%, very strong reading
•    Five sectors totally done
•    Year over year Earnings Growth ratio (# Positive Growth/# Negative Growth) at 0.77
•    Massive positive surprises in cyclical Construction, Industrial and Discretionary sectors

In evaluating the data presented here, keep the percentage reported in mind; for some sectors, the sample size is extremely small. The move to the 16 Zacks sectors means that even when all reports are in, some of the sectors will still have relatively few firms in them. For firms with only a few reports in, the median surprise will be very volatile as new firms are added to the sample.

Overall, two small sectors, Conglomerates and Business Services, appear to have the most impressive performance so far this quarter on the surprise front. Among the larger sectors, strong arguments could be made for Staples having the best surprise profile.

Scorecard & Earnings Surprise
Income Surprises	Yr/Yr Growth	% Reported	Surprise Median	EPS Surp Pos	EPS Surp Neg	# Grow Pos	# Grow Neg
Consumer Staples	1.03%	84.09%	10.87	34	3	25	12
Consumer Discretionary	-16.21%	93.33%	12.36	21	4	6	22
Retail/Wholesale	0.80%	60.00%	5.94	21	4	14	13
Medical	3.36%	95.45%	5.86	35	1	33	9
Auto	-16.45%	100.00%	1.54	3	2	2	4
Basic Materials	-47.72%	100.00%	6.73	14	4	4	16
Industrial Products	-26.52%	86.36%	15.15	19	0	9	10
Construction	66.67%	81.82%	28.57	6	2	4	5
Conglomerates	-21.64%	100.00%	16.41	8	0	1	8
Computer and Tech	-10.56%	83.13%	7.69	47	6	26	42
Aerospace	-59.63%	100.00%	6.74	8	2	4	6
Oils and Energy	-62.65%	95.12%	4.84	28	9	2	37
Finance	378.04%	98.72%	5.69	56	15	39	38
Utilities	5.76%	92.11%	4.55	25	8	21	14
Transportation	-36.21%	100.00%	3.09	7	2	1	9
Business Service	6.73%	88.89%	11.80	7	0	2	6
S&P	-11.56%	88.80%	7.11	339	62	193	251

Sales Surprises
•    Sales Surprise Ratio at 1.38
•    Staples missing on Sales even as they beat on Earnings
•    Tech looks terrific -- 3:1 positive sales surprise ratio
•    Sales Growth Ratio at just 0.40
•    Most Tech firms have declining sales, but less of a drop than expected
•    Only 28.6% of all firms reporting so far have higher revenues than last year

Sales Surprises
Sales Surprises	Yr/Yr Growth	% Reported	Surprise Median	Sales Surp Pos	Sales Surp Neg	# Grow Pos	# Grow Neg
Consumer Staples	-7.44%	84.09%	-0.12	15	21	8	29
Consumer Discretionary	-11.51%	93.33%	0.83	19	9	6	22
Retail/Wholesale	2.69%	60.00%	0.21	15	12	15	12
Medical	4.66%	95.45%	0.80	31	11	33	8
Auto	-11.94%	100.00%	1.08	6	0	0	6
Basic Materials	-28.79%	100.00%	0.25	11	9	1	19
Industrial Products	-20.00%	86.36%	0.03	10	9	1	18
Construction	-27.28%	81.82%	-0.88	4	5	0	9
Conglomerates	-16.29%	100.00%	0.45	5	3	1	8
Computer and Tech	-4.95%	83.13%	2.47	52	17	16	53
Aerospace	4.64%	100.00%	-1.73	3	7	7	3
Oils and Energy	-40.47%	95.12%	0.46	22	17	3	36
Finance	7.82%	98.72%	1.25	33	18	30	44
Utilities	-18.64%	92.11%	-13.45	7	28	3	32
Transportation	-19.93%	100.00%	-0.36	3	7	0	10
Business Service	-6.73%	88.89%	0.84	5	3	3	5
S&P	-13.42%	88.80%	0.43	241	176	127	314

Reported Quarterly Growth: Total Net Income
•    Massive 378.0% growth in Financials due to low year-ago base, earnings up 5.2% from 2Q09
•    Total Net Income for S&P 500 reported so far is 11.6% below what those same 444 firms reported a year ago, 11.8% above what they earned in the 2Q09
•    Going into the quarter, a decline of 23% was forecast for total year-over-year earnings
•    Materials down hard year over year in second and third quarters, but expects huge rebound in the 4Q

Reported Growth: Total Net Income
Income Growth	Sequential Q4/Q3 E	Sequential Q3/Q2 A	Year over Year 3Q 09 A	Year over Year 4Q 09 E	Year over Year 2Q 09 A
Consumer Staples	-16.31%	4.87%	1.03%	-1.78%	6.47%
Consumer Discretionary	0.66%	29.42%	-16.21%	5.01%	-19.25%
Retail/Wholesale	-2.93%	4.23%	0.80%	6.83%	-2.54%
Medical	-9.64%	4.80%	3.36%	-6.38%	1.58%
Auto	-53.45%	201.81%	-16.45%	21.05%	744.07%
Basic Materials	-19.88%	50.30%	-47.72%	475.63%	-69.62%
Industrial Products	-25.80%	21.95%	-26.52%	-25.49%	-45.06%
Construction	-490.00%	62.96%	66.67%	0.69%	-167.92%
Conglomerates	-13.44%	-1.66%	-21.64%	-9.44%	-29.50%
Computer and Tech	17.70%	11.19%	-10.56%	18.94%	-20.13%
Aerospace	150.69%	-60.94%	-59.63%	5.51%	-1.53%
Oils and Energy	5.34%	25.33%	-62.65%	-28.22%	-66.92%
Finance	-25.62%	5.19%	378.04%	32.01%	-2.89%
Utilities	-38.82%	50.40%	5.76%	0.24%	-3.34%
Transportation	4.39%	11.58%	-36.21%	-28.94%	-35.44%
Business Service	-13.57%	12.48%	6.73%	2.76%	-1.93%
S&P	-6.57%	11.83%	-11.56%	117.86%	-26.04%

Reported Quarterly Growth: Total Revenues
•    Total S&P 500 revenues down 13.66% year over year, up 2.91% from 2Q09
•    Year-over-year revenue expected to turn positive in 4Q with 0.63% increase
•    Consumer Discretionary revenue growth up 9.1% from 2Q09, but down 12.2% from year ago
•    Seasonality can greatly affect sequential growth (see the 238.4% sequential growth for retail expected in the 4Q), but year-ago was unusual and may be distorting year-over-year figures
•    Four sectors posting positive yr/yr revenue growth so far, 12 sectors negative

Reported Growth: Total Revenues
Sales Growth	Sequential Q4/Q3 E	Sequential Q3/Q2 A	Year over Year 3Q 09 A	Year over Year 4Q 09 E	Year over Year 2Q 09 A
Consumer Staples	-6.01%	-0.70%	-7.44%	-7.27%	-8.34%
Consumer Discretionary	4.77%	6.34%	-11.51%	-5.51%	-14.85%
Retail/Wholesale	2.54%	3.24%	2.69%	3.40%	2.56%
Medical	3.35%	0.79%	4.66%	7.50%	2.53%
Auto	-2.99%	11.99%	-11.94%	-1.13%	-30.44%
Basic Materials	0.37%	5.31%	-28.79%	-3.06%	-34.50%
Industrial Products	0.11%	1.47%	-20.00%	-12.79%	-23.57%
Construction	-1.48%	5.33%	-27.28%	-17.68%	-35.54%
Conglomerates	4.97%	-0.78%	-16.29%	-9.02%	-17.47%
Computer and Tech	6.76%	2.71%	-4.95%	2.78%	-8.55%
Aerospace	6.72%	-2.14%	4.64%	12.63%	2.18%
Oils and Energy	-3.45%	11.11%	-40.47%	-8.31%	-45.14%
Finance	-3.35%	-9.67%	7.82%	24.23%	4.96%
Utilities	14.66%	11.17%	-18.64%	8.28%	-13.42%
Transportation	3.53%	4.63%	-19.93%	-10.14%	-21.46%
Business Service	-1.54%	3.00%	-6.73%	-3.57%	-10.84%
S&P	0.40%	2.03%	-13.42%	0.43%	-16.06%

Annual Total Net Income Growth
•    Total S&P 500 Net Income in 2009 expected to be 5.4% below 2008 levels
•    Total earnings for the S&P 500 expected to jump 23.9% in 2010, 13.7% further in 2011
•    Data for 2011 is still thin, so take with a grain of salt
•    Construction, Medical and Business Service only sectors to see positive growth for 2009, although Finance is moving from a loss to a profit. Autos to see much smaller loss in 2009, move to profit in 2010

Annual Total Net Income Growth
EPS Growth	2008	2009	2010	2011
Consumer Staples	-2.51%	1.15%	11.53%	7.31%
Consumer Discretionary	6.94%	-9.45%	11.10%	15.62%
Retail/Wholesale	6.95%	-4.39%	12.01%	13.94%
Medical	9.17%	1.78%	8.77%	9.54%
Auto	-270.72%	-93.47%	- to +	84.06%
Basic Materials	-12.91%	-64.14%	95.61%	26.72%
Industrial Products	4.52%	-38.19%	22.84%	-15.20%
Construction	-89.63%	718.01%	55.10%	47.33%
Conglomerates	-7.84%	-24.65%	5.03%	21.04%
Computer and Tech	8.96%	-9.85%	21.67%	-13.22%
Aerospace	20.00%	1.72%	3.66%	10.41%
Oils and Energy	0.34%	-56.64%	50.98%	32.30%
Finance	+ to -	- to +	49.87%	37.33%
Utilities	9.98%	-0.13%	12.27%	13.51%
Transportation	7.32%	-28.38%	20.80%	19.57%
Business Service	13.07%	1.31%	12.91%	19.55%
S&P	-22.72%	-5.41%	23.85%	13.74%

Annual Total Revenue Growth
•    Total S&P 500 Revenue in 2009 expected to be 9.4% below 2008 levels
•    Total revenues for the S&P 500 expected to rise 6.7% in 2010
•    For 2009, revenues fall more than earnings; for 2010, earnings rise faster than sales -- both mean big margin expansion
•    Energy, Autos, Materials and Construction see biggest revenue declines in 2009, but will see large increases in 2010

Annual Total Revenue Growth
Sales Growth	2008	2009	2010
Consumer Staples	1.74%	-8.91%	4.44%
Consumer Discretionary	5.22%	-9.61%	3.68%
Retail/Wholesale	6.17%	3.94%	5.26%
Medical	7.78%	3.96%	5.23%
Auto	-8.67%	-24.59%	6.24%
Basic Materials	11.50%	-25.15%	13.19%
Industrial Products	9.64%	-16.87%	5.93%
Construction	-19.68%	-19.28%	10.08%
Conglomerates	8.66%	-9.76%	1.87%
Computer and Tech	5.04%	-4.19%	5.12%
Aerospace	7.20%	4.39%	3.98%
Oils and Energy	23.63%	-32.80%	20.58%
Finance	-23.95%	2.07%	-0.71%
Utilities	19.77%	5.33%	14.64%
Transportation	8.21%	-16.69%	6.89%
Business Service	8.77%	-10.16%	4.19%
S&P	4.21%	-9.42%	6.68%

Revisions: Earnings
The Zacks Revisions Ratio: 2009
•    Revisions ratio for full S&P 500 up to 3.26 from 3.05
•    Positive surprises translating to estimate increases for 2009
•    5 sectors seem more than 5 estimate increases for each cut
•    No sector seeing estimates cut on balance
•    Utilities and Aerospace continue to see estimates cut
•    Business Service and Conglomerates lead, Staples and Tech also strong
•    Ratio of firms with rising to falling mean estimates climbs to 3.18 from 2.01
•    Total number of revisions (4-week total) up to 4,614 from 3,638 last week (26.9%)
•    Increases up to 3,534 from 2,739 (29.0%), cuts up to 1,084 from 899 (20.6%)
•    Total Revisions activity approaching peak for this earnings season

Analysts are responding to better-than-expected 3Q earnings by raising 2009 estimates almost across the board. Unlike the data presented above for the surprises, the revisions data is for all 500 firms in the index. Total revisions activity has picked up dramatically, and will continue to do so over the next week or two, but we are getting towards peak activity.

The broad increases in earnings estimates seems to reflect a much better short-term outlook for the economy. Note that some of the most cyclical areas such as Retailers, Materials and Autos are seeing a large preponderance of upward over downward earnings revisions, and that most of the firms in those sectors are seeing their consensus estimates increase.

On the other hand, the defensive Staples sector has a very high revisions ratio of 8.71, so it’s not just the cyclicals. Then again given the great performance by the Staples on the surprise front, a strong estimate revisions performance is not surprising.

The Zacks Revisions Ratio: 2009
Sector	%Ch Curr Fiscal Yr Est - 4 wks	# Firms Up	# Firms Down	# Ests Up	# Ests Down	Revisions Ratio	Firms up/down
Consumer Staples	2.63	35	6	244	28	8.71	5.83
Consumer Discretionary	6.09	26	4	203	52	3.90	6.50
Retail/Wholesale	2.51	32	12	330	54	6.11	2.67
Medical	2.83	32	11	408	132	3.09	2.91
Auto	-2.12	4	2	36	16	2.25	2.00
Basic Materials	6.56	15	5	147	40	3.68	3.00
Industrial Products	16.33	17	3	147	32	4.59	5.67
Construction	0.82	5	4	44	21	2.10	1.25
Conglomerates	2.14	8	0	79	11	7.18	NM
Computer and Tech	4.39	59	14	701	116	6.04	4.21
Aerospace	-2.71	6	4	102	35	2.91	1.50
Oils and Energy	3.34	30	11	306	159	1.92	2.73
Finance	2.73	54	23	575	275	2.09	2.35
Utilities	1.02	24	12	79	59	1.34	2.00
Transportation	0.06	7	3	69	49	1.41	2.33
Business Service	3.42	8	0	64	5	12.80	NM
S&P	3.24	362	114	3534	1084	3.26	3.18

Revisions: Earnings
The Zacks Revisions Ratio: 2010
•    Revisions Ratio for full S&P 500 edges up to 2.15 from 2.14
•    Positive surprises translating to estimate increases for 2010, as well as 2009
•    Eclectic mix of strong sectors -- Industrials lead, followed by Staples
•    Ratio of firms with rising estimate to falling mean estimates at 1.98, up from 1.85 last week

For a large sector, the revisions ratio of 9.07 for the Industrials is extremely impressive, and would seem to support the idea that the economy is gaining some real traction. More than five times as many firms in the sector saw their mean estimate for 2010 rise over the last month than suffered a decline in their expectations. Some of the firms in the sector that have seen double-digit increases in both their mean estimate and double-digit numbers of estimate increases and have had no cuts over the last month include Caterpillar (CAT), Eaton (ETN) and Illinois Tool Works (ITW).

The Zacks Revisions Ratio: 2010
Sector	%Ch Next Fiscal Yr Est - 4 wks	# Firms Up	# Firms Down	# Ests Up	# Ests Down	Revisions Ratio	Firms up/down
Consumer Staples	3.75	31	9	196	35	5.60	3.44
Consumer Discretionary	3.09	24	6	176	52	3.38	4.00
Retail/Wholesale	2.80	36	9	288	56	5.14	4.00
Medical	1.41	26	17	278	168	1.65	1.53
Auto	3.53	3	3	23	13	1.77	1.00
Basic Materials	3.01	13	7	98	42	2.33	1.86
Industrial Products	8.31	16	3	127	14	9.07	5.33
Construction	0.62	6	3	34	27	1.26	2.00
Conglomerates	1.88	7	1	60	22	2.73	7.00
Computer and Tech	5.18	57	17	584	151	3.87	3.35
Aerospace	-1.49	4	6	51	76	0.67	0.67
Oils and Energy	1.95	28	13	268	165	1.62	2.15
Finance	-2.50	37	39	450	353	1.27	0.95
Utilities	-0.57	17	20	61	73	0.84	0.85
Transportation	-0.15	5	5	43	36	1.19	1.00
Business Service	2.38	6	2	50	12	4.17	3.00
S&P	2.06	316	160	2787	1295	2.15	1.98

Total Income and Share
•    S&P500 expected to earn $570.6 billion in 2008, $706.8 billion in 2010
•    Excluding Financials, total net income expected to be down 19.9% in 2009
•    Energy Share of total earnings plunges to 11.3% in 2009 from 24.6% in 2008
•    Finance share of total earnings moves from deficit in 2008 to 11.3% in 2009, 13.7% in 2010
•    Medical share of total earnings far exceeds market cap share (index weight)

Total Income and Share
Sector	Total Net Income $ 2008	Total Net Income $ 2009	Total Net Income $ 2010	% Total S&P Earn 2008	% Total S&P Earn 2009	% Total S&P Earn 2010	% Total S&P Mkt Cap
Consumer Staples	$54,721.70	$55,349.23	$61,728.80	9.07%	9.70%	8.73%	8.61%
Consumer Discretionary	$34,582.03	$31,312.81	$34,788.34	5.73%	5.49%	4.92%	5.17%
Retail/Wholesale	$56,295.12	$53,823.23	$60,289.11	9.33%	9.43%	8.53%	9.11%
Medical	$85,649.09	For Immediate Release Chicago, IL – November 4, 2009 – Zacks.com announces the list of stocks featured in the Analyst Blog. Every day the Zacks Equity Research analysts discuss the latest news and events impacting stocks and the financial markets. Stocks recently featured in the blog include: Stanley Works (SWK), Black & Decker Corporation (BDK), Joy Global (JOYG), Paccar (PCAR) and Illinois Tool Works (ITW). Get the most recent insight from Zacks Equity Research with the free Profit from the Pros newsletter: http://at.zacks.com/?id=5513 Here are highlights from Tuesday’s AnalystBlog: Stanley Works Acquires B&D Stanley Works (SWK) and Black & Decker Corporation (BDK) have entered into a definitive merger agreement to create Stanley Black & Decker, an $8.4 billion global tool maker. The Board of Directors of both companies approved an all-stock transaction valued at approximately $4.5 billion. Under the terms of the deal, Black & Decker shareholders will receive 1.275 Stanley shares for each Black & Decker share they own. The deal is expected to close in the first half of 2010. Upon the completion of the transaction, Stanley shareholders will own 50.5% of the combined company, while Black & Decker shareholders will own the remaining 49.5%. The Shape of GDP While Government spending is higher now as a share of total GDP than its long-term average, it is below what it averaged in the 1950’s and 1960’s, and is not way out of line. I would, however, note that the measure of government spending does not include transfer payments like Social Security, Medicare, or unemployment insurance. Those are considered part of Consumption. On the other hand, Investment is the most volatile of the components of GDP, and even if it were to return to the previous record low of 12.77% of GDP, that would be a 15.7% increase, assuming everything else showed no growth at all. A return to the long-term average would be a 44.5% increase. With commercial rents plunging and vacancy rates soaring, the value of commercial real estate is in free-fall. It thus seems unlikely that we will get any short-term recovery on investments in non-residential structures. Thus if we are going to get a rebound in non-residential fixed investment, it will most likely have to come from the equipment and software side. That would be a very powerful tonic for the likes of companies like Joy Global (JOYG), Paccar (PCAR) and Illinois Tool Works (ITW). However, will companies have a reason to invest in more equipment and software if the consumers are not buying? The key to that puzzle will most likely have to reside in the net exports area. At some point, we are going to have to get back to the point where were are running trade surpluses, where we export more than we import. Investments that reduce our oil import bill would also greatly help that effort. Want more from Zacks Equity Research? Subscribe to the free Profit from the Pros newsletter: http://at.zacks.com/?id=5515. About Zacks Equity Research Zacks Equity Research provides the best of quantitative and qualitative analysis to help investors know what stocks to buy and which to sell for the long-term. Continuous coverage is provided for a universe of 1,150 publicly traded stocks. Our analysts are organized by industry which gives them keen insights to developments that affect company profits and stock performance. Recommendations and target prices are six-month time horizons. Zacks "Profit from the Pros" e-mail newsletter provides highlights of the latest analysis from Zacks Equity Research. Subscribe to this free newsletter today: http://at.zacks.com/?id=5517 About Zacks Zacks.com is a property of Zacks Investment Research, Inc., which was formed in 1978 by Leonard Zacks. As a PhD in mathematics Len knew he could find patterns in stock market data that would lead to superior investment results. Amongst his many accomplishments was the formation of his proprietary stock picking system; the Zacks Rank, which continues to outperform the market by nearly a 3 to 1 margin. The best way to unlock the profitable stock recommendations and market insights of Zacks Investment Research is through our free daily email newsletter; Profit from the Pros. In short, it's your steady flow of Profitable ideas GUARANTEED to be worth your time! Register for your free subscription to Profit from the Pros at http://at.zacks.com/?id=5518. Visit http://www.zacks.com/performance for information about the performance numbers displayed in this press release. Follow us on Twitter: http://twitter.com/zacksresearch Join us on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/home.php#/pages/Zacks-Investment-Research/57553657748?ref=ts Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investors should always research companies and securities before making any investments. Nothing herein should be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security. Contact: Mark Vickery Web Content Editor 312-265-9380 Visit: www.zacks.com Zacks Investment Research The Shape of GDP – Analyst Blog Dirk Van Dijk — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 18:43:46 +0000 While last week GDP growth came in better than expected at 3.5%, which was a very welcome development, there was very little change in the coverall shape of GDP. This is a troubling development for the long term. GDP is the sum of spending by the Consumer, Private Investment, Government Spending and Net Exports. The Graph below shows the percentage each of them has contributed to overall GDP since 1947. The Consumer is still by far the dominate force in the economy, and it is becoming more so. In the 3Q, PCE, meaning the consumer, rose to 70.98% of GDP, up from 70.66% in the second quarter. That is an all-time record high. At the same time, private investment was virtually unchanged near an all-time low as a share of GDP at 11.04%, up from 11.03% in the 2Q. Government spending as a share of GDP actually declined slightly to 20.68% from 20.70%. Net Exports deteriorated to -2.71% from -2.40%. While the Consumer has always been the biggest share of GDP, it has not always been so dominant. Back in the 1960’s it averaged only 61.83% of the economy, or more than 9 full percentage points less as a share of the economy. The other three parts of GDP were all correspondingly higher, with the biggest differences being in Investment (4.45% percentage points) and net exports (3.33 percentage points). Government’s share of the economy was just 1.37% higher than it was in the 3Q. The decline in Investment’s share of GDP is extremely disturbing, and the drop in net exports is a little disconcerting. We have made significant progress over the last year in reducing the net export drag, and the backsliding is not welcome news. The decline in investment is even more disturbing when you consider that it was residential investment that was responsible for the slight uptick as it increased at a 23.4% annual rate (from a record low level of 2.44% to a still extremely low 2.52%). Non-Residential fixed investment dropped to 9.55% of GDP from 9.84%). Inventory investment is also included in the Investment numbers, which is why those two add to 12.07%, not to 11.04%, as inventory investment was negative in the 3Q, just not as negative as it was in the 2Q. Thus it actually contributed to GDP growth in the quarter. But housing is not exactly something in short supply in the U.S. right now. It is not the sort of investment that creates lots of cash flows for the repayment of debt, and it does not spur innovation; it is not the sort of investment that leads to further growth. As shown in the table below, Investment has averaged 15.53% of GDP in the post-war period. Prior to the current downturn, the lowest share of the economy it ever reached was 12.77%, in the second quarter of 1949. In fact, out of 250 quarters, only 30 have seen private investment slip below 14.0%, and six of those have been during the current downturn. While many bemoan the debt we are leaving to our children and grandchildren, we are really shortchanging them by our lack of investment in new productive capacity. While higher consumer spending makes the economy feel better in the short term, it cannot be the basis for long-term economic health. Our parents and grandparents deferred consuming things and put resources into the plants and equipment that made things -- and that powered future growth. Money was spent on research and development of new ideas that became new industries. We are not doing that at anywhere near the rate that we used to, or that other countries are doing today. This is a recipe for long-term economic decline. While Government spending is higher now as a share of total GDP than its long-term average, it is below what it averaged in the 1950’s and 1960’s, and is not way out of line. I would, however, note that the measure of government spending does not include transfer payments like Social Security, Medicare, or unemployment insurance. Those are considered part of Consumption. On the other hand, Investment is the most volatile of the components of GDP, and even if it were to return to the previous record low of 12.77% of GDP, that would be a 15.7% increase, assuming everything else showed no growth at all. A return to the long-term average would be a 44.5% increase. With commercial rents plunging and vacancy rates soaring, the value of commercial real estate is in free-fall. It thus seems unlikely that we will get any short-term recovery on investments in non-residential structures. Thus if we are going to get a rebound in non-residential fixed investment, it will most likely have to come from the equipment and software side. That would be a very powerful tonic for the likes of companies like Joy Global (JOYG), Paccar (PCAR) and Illinois Tool Works (ITW). However, will companies have a reason to invest in more equipment and software if the consumers are not buying? The key to that puzzle will most likely have to reside in the net exports area. At some point, we are going to have to get back to the point where were are running trade surpluses, where we export more than we import. Investments that reduce our oil import bill would also greatly help that effort. The only way that Consumption will decline as a share of GDP is if consumers grow their spending at a slower rate than their incomes grow, or if we have a real boom in the other three areas of the economy. With fiscal deficits at record levels as a share of the economy, it is probably not wise to look to the government to pick up substantial share of the economy -- although in a deep downturn it has to fill in by default (after all the four areas have to sum to 100%). Businesses have to think that people will buy their products for them to spend on building new factories and the equipment that goes into them, or they have to think that they can sell the goods abroad. Of course, if they can invest in things that cut costs, it is possible to have worthwhile investments even if they do not expand production, but those are probably in the minority. While I welcome the increase in GDP from whatever source right now, the fact that we continue to set new records for Consumption as a share of GDP is not healthy. Prior to the 4th Quarter of 2001, consumption had never exceeded 70% of GDP. Since then, it has been above that level in all but five quarters. Prior to the 2Q of 1990, Consumption had only exceeded 2/3 of the economy in just 3 quarters, out of 174 (1.7%). Since then, it has been above that level in 70 out of 78 quarters, or 89.7% of the time. Conversely, during the earlier period, private Investment had exceeded 15% of GDP in 141 quarters, or 81.0% of the time, but in the later period it has only been above 54 out of 74 quarters, or 69.2% of the time, and has been below that level for 8 straight quarters. This does not bode well for future long-term growth, just as a company that has capital spending that consistently falls short of depreciation is not going to be a great long-term growth story. Of course, shrinking Consumption’s share of the economy is going to be very painful for the huge numbers of companies that depend on that 70%+ part of the U.S. economy. That would include almost all retailers, and vast parts of the service economy, as well as the makers of big-ticket discretionary items. Read the full analyst report on "JOYG" Read the full analyst report on "PCAR" Read the full analyst report on "ITW" Zacks Investment Research Stock Market News for September 10, 2009 – Market News Zacks Market Commentaries — Thu, 10 Sep 2009 14:16:10 +0000 U.S. stocks jumped to their highest level in almost a year after Federal Reserve’s Beige Book survey said the economy is showing signs of stabilization. Although shares closed off their session highs, the report was enough to lift sentiments on the Street. However, the report did indicate that labor markets are weak and retail sales are not picking up. Industrial shares rallied after Goldman Sachs raised its view on the U.S. multi-industry group, noting the industrial activity is picking up. Treasuries made a partial comeback after the government’s 10-year note auction witnessed a strong response. The greenback remained near its year lows against a basket of currencies while gold prices eased a little to settle at $995.30. Crude prices were slightly up ahead of the September OPEC meeting. The Dow Jones industrial average, which rose as much as 80 points earlier in the session, pared some gains to close at 9,547.22, up 49.88 points. The broad S&P 500 index advanced 7.98 points, or 0.78%, to close at 1,033.37, its best finish so far this year, and the tech-heavy NASDAQ rose 22.62 points, or 1.11%, to close at 2,060.39. On the NYSE, volume was a moderate 1.24 billion shares as advancing stocks outpaced those that fell seven to three. Even as unemployment levels continuing to remain vexing, the Fed’s Beige Book revealed “signs of improvements" in 11 of the 12 districts. Meanwhile, OPEC also exited its monthly meeting with soothing words, leaving production levels unchanged, and asserting current prices were within their desirable range. Nevertheless, fears of a jobless recovery have given rise to worries that the economic recovery might be reversed after inventory builds and government assistance end. Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) shares declined even as CEO Steve Jobs made a much-awaited comeback after his almost six-month long medical leave. The company announced the launch of new products and slashed prices of existing iPod Touch models. SanDisk (NASDAQ:SNDK) jumped 6.1% to $19.32, its highest close in 11 months; Palm (NASDAQ:PALM) shares declined more than 8.7% after the company announced the launch of its Palm Pixi phones. The stock was downgraded by Credit Suisse to “neutral" from “outperform." Among the S&P500 industry groups, nine recorded gains with industrials (+1.5%) and financials (+1.4%) topping the list. Among the industrial conglomerates, General Electric (NYSE:GE) advanced 2.6% to $14.87, its highest level since January and Illinois Tool Works (NYSE:ITW) jumped 5% to $43.93. Goldman (NYSE:GS) raised Illinois Tool Works (NYSE:ITW) to “conviction buy" from “neutral." Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT) rose 3.1% to $48.41. GE also benefited from an analyst upgrade from JP Morgan (NYSE:JPM), and a hiked price target from Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS). Boeing (NYSE:BA) shares added 2.1% following the firm's projection of a return to growth in global air traffic next year. United Technologies (NYSE:UTX), which rose 1.4%, was also upgraded by Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS). 3M (NYSE:MMM) rose 2.1% Zacks Investment Research Company News for September 9, 2009 – Corporate Summary Zacks Market Commentaries — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 14:14:59 +0000 • A JP Morgan (NYSE:JPM) estimated the adverse impact of possible regulatory reform may lower investment banks' long-term profitability by almost one-third, resulting in further job eliminations and bonus cuts. Hardest hit will be Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) and Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS), according to the report • Talbots (NYSE:TLB) reported an adjusted fiscal second quarter loss of 33 cents a share, versus estimates of a 52 cents per share loss on revenues of $304.6 million, versus estimates of $309.34 million. The firm said it sees third quarter losses of 24-30 cents a share, ex-items • JP Morgan (NYSE:JPM) upgraded UPS (NYSE:UPS) to "overweight" from "neutral" and raised the price target on the firm to $70 from $57 • Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) downgraded DuPont (NYSE:DD) on valuation concerns with a price target of $32 • Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) upped Illinois Tool Works (NYSE:ITW) and added the firm to its Conviction Buy List with a $55 price target • Palm (NASDAQ:PALM) cut prices on its Pre smartphone, introducing a cheaper and thinner model, "Pixi" • Apple's (NASDAQ:AAPL) San Francisco event is expected to see a fresh iPod launch, new iTune offerings, an Apple TV tune-up, with hopes of a Steve Jobs appearance Zacks Investment Research Zacks Analyst Blog Highlights: Illinois Tool Works, Honeywell, Ingersoll Rand, American International Group and Citigroup. – Press Releases Zacks Market Commentaries — Wed, 17 Jun 2009 13:59:10 +0000 For Immediate Release Chicago, IL - June 17, 2009 - Zacks.com announces the list of stocks featured in the Analyst Blog. Every day the Zacks Equity Research analysts discuss the latest news and events impacting stocks and the financial markets. Stocks recently featured in the blog include: Illinois Tool Works (ITW), Honeywell (HON), Ingersoll Rand (IR), American International Group (AIG) and Citigroup (C). Get the most recent insight from Zacks Equity Research with the free Profit from the Pros newsletter: http://at.zacks.com/?id=5513 Here are highlights from Tuesday's Analyst Blog: Slack in the Industrials System If one digs deeper and looks at Capacity Utilization (CU) by stage of production, it fell at all three levels. There is the least slack in the system at the Crude level at 77.7%, but it was down from 78.5% in April and 79.5% in March; a year ago it was at 88.6%. The intermediate stage of production has the most slack at 65.6%, down from 66.7% in April and 67.0% in March and 78.8% a year ago. Finished goods CU was 67.4% vs. 67.6% in April and 68.1% in March. A year ago it was at 75.0%. Factories, of course, represent extremely large fixed costs to companies, and if they are sitting idle it is not a good thing for profitability. This level of slack in the system means that industrial companies are seeing the bad side of operational leverage, regardless of the financial leverage they have. In particular, though, this data is very bad news for suppliers of industrial goods like Illinois Tool Works (ITW) and some of the divisions of firms like Honeywell (HON) and Ingersoll Rand (IR). If you have lots of equipment sitting idle, just what is the incentive for businesses to order more? Will the Fed Get Too Much Power? Currently the Fed is the country's central bank. However, if the Fed's focus was expanded to also supervise large financial institutions considered "too big to fail" (ala American International Group [AIG]) in order to prevent another financial meltdown, some assert that it might end up turning the Federal Reserve into an all-powerful entity that could in all eventuality slow down a major overhaul of banking and market regulations. One that is opposed to the expansion of the Fed's focus is Senator Christopher Dodd, chairman of the Banking Committee. Mr. Dodd advocates an alternative plan to strip the Fed of its regulatory role entirely and create a new consolidated bank regulator that would assume the roles that the Fed and Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. which presently play in the role of helping to regulate state-chartered banks. The Fed would then focus on its existing mission as the nation's central bank -- setting monetary policy and acting as a "lender of last resort." What also seems to concern Democrats and Republicans alike that expanding the Fed's responsibilities and increasing government spending pose a greater potential as a significant source of "systemic risk to our nation's economy than the failure of any specific financial institution." We would expect some of the special interests and lobbyists for financial institutions such as Citigroup (C). Want more from Zacks Equity Research? Subscribe to the free Profit from the Pros newsletter: http://at.zacks.com/?id=5515. About Zacks Equity Research Zacks Equity Research provides the best of quantitative and qualitative analysis to help investors know what stocks to buy and which to sell for the long-term. Continuous coverage is provided for a universe of 1,150 publicly traded stocks. Our analysts are organized by industry which gives them keen insights to developments that affect company profits and stock performance. Recommendations and target prices are six-month time horizons. Zacks "Profit from the Pros" e-mail newsletter provides highlights of the latest analysis from Zacks Equity Research. Subscribe to this free newsletter today: http://at.zacks.com/?id=5517 About Zacks Zacks.com is a property of Zacks Investment Research, Inc., which was formed in 1978 by Leonard Zacks. As a PhD in mathematics Len knew he could find patterns in stock market data that would lead to superior investment results. Amongst his many accomplishments was the formation of his proprietary stock picking system; the Zacks Rank, which continues to outperform the market by nearly a 3 to 1 margin. The best way to unlock the profitable stock recommendations and market insights of Zacks Investment Research is through our free daily email newsletter; Profit from the Pros. In short, it's your steady flow of Profitable ideas GUARANTEED to be worth your time! Register for your free subscription to Profit from the Pros at http://at.zacks.com/?id=5518. Visit http://www.zacks.com/performance for information about the performance numbers displayed in this press release. Follow us on Twitter: http://twitter.com/ZacksInvestment Join us on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/home.php#/pages/Zacks-Investment-Research/57553657748?ref=ts Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investors should always research companies and securities before making any investments. Nothing herein should be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security. Contact: Mark Vickery Web Content Editor 312-265-9380 Visit: www.zacks.com Zacks Investment Research Slack in the Industrials System – Analyst Blog Dirk Van Dijk — Tue, 16 Jun 2009 20:03:13 +0000 No Green Shoots in Industrial Production The Fed's report on Industrial Production (IP) and Capacity Utilization (CU) was downright dismal. CU is a particularly important thing to look at since as the chart below shows (from http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/) it almost always turns up right at the point that the NBER eventually decides is the end of a recession. Furthermore, it does not tend to provide a lot of false signals. Total capacity utilization fell to yet another record low (records go back to 1967) of 68.3%. Before this downturn, the worst the country had ever seen was 70.9% in December 1982. This was down from 60.0% in April and 69.4% in March, so the rate of decline actually accelerated in May. Thus, one cannot even make a second derivative argument that things are getting better (or worse at a slower pace). The average utilization between 1972 and 2008 has been 80.9%. In general, a reading of 85% represents a boom, and around 80% is normal. A year ago, CU was 78.9%. We tend to get down to 75% in a pretty bad recession. Below 70%? Well, that is just plain ugly. CU is measured for three areas, Manufacturing, Mining and Utilities. Of the three, Manufacturing is by far the most important, and the most significant. Mining is a small part of the overall economy and the Utility numbers can be affected by the weather as much as by economic activity. Manufacturing CU fell to 65.0% from 65.6% in April and 65.9% in March, and 76.7% a year ago. The long-term average for Manufacturing CU is 79.6%. Mining CU is much higher at 80.8%, but it to fell sharply in May from 85.5% in both April and March, a year ago it was at 90.8% and its long-term average is 87.6%. Utility CU fell to 79.3% from 80.6% and 83.7% a year ago. If one digs deeper and looks at CU by stage of production, it fell at all three levels. There is the least slack in the system at the Crude level at 77.7%, but it was down from 78.5% in April and 79.5% in March; a year ago it was at 88.6%. The intermediate stage of production has the most slack at 65.6%, down from 66.7% in April and 67.0% in March and 78.8% a year ago. Finished goods CU was 67.4% vs. 67.6% in April and 68.1% in March. A year ago it was at 75.0%. Factories, of course, represent extremely large fixed costs to companies, and if they are sitting idle it is not a good thing for profitability. This level of slack in the system means that industrial companies are seeing the bad side of operational leverage, regardless of the financial leverage they have. In particular, though, this data is very bad news for suppliers of industrial goods like Illinois Tool Works (ITW) and some of the divisions of firms like Honeywell (HON) and Ingersoll Rand (IR). If you have lots of equipment sitting idle, just what is the incentive for businesses to order more? On the IP side of the report, things do not look much brighter. Overall, industrial output fell 1.1% in May, and is now down 13.4% below a year ago. Further, the output decline in April was revised down to a 0.7% slide from 0.5%, and March was revised down to 1.8% decline from 1.7%. Manufacturing output fell 1.0% following a 0.6% decline in April (revised from a 0.3% decline). It is down 15.3% year over year. Utility output was 1.4% lower more than reversing a 0.7% rise in April. It's year-over-year decline, though, is a relatively moderate 3.4% -- but then again, remember that Utilities are very weather-sensitive. Mine output plunged 2.1% in May following declines of 3.2% and 1.9% in April and May, respectively. In part, this may be the lagged effect of the earlier declines in commodity prices. If so, the recent rebound in commodities could mean that mine output will pick up again in the coming months. The manufacturing decline was very broad-based, with all major areas down. Not surprisingly, output of building supplies is off the most on a year-over-year basis at 21.5%. It was down 1.0% for the month. Business equipment output is down 16.5% year over year and fell 1.4% in the month. Output of Consumer goods fell 0.8%, the smallest of any of the major categories. The decline is also the smallest on a year-over-year basis at 7.1%. I consider this report to be a significant piece of evidence for the anti-"green shoots" case. Historically, we have never seen a recession end while capacity utilization and industrial production are still falling. This recession is already the longest in post-war history, and the evidence suggests that it still has a ways to go. Granted, Manufacturing is not as important to the overall economy as it once was, but it is still the major swing-factor between a healthy growing economy and a contracting one. Reports like this one are herbicide to green shoots, not fertilizer. Read the full analyst report on "ITW" Read the full analyst report on "HON" Read the full analyst report on "IR" Zacks Investment Research Smart Money Betting on Heavy Machinery Stocks Gaining in 2009 Investment U — Tue, 09 Jun 2009 15:40:22 +0000 Smart Money Betting on Heavy Machinery Stocks Gaining in 2009 Joe Kunkle, The Investment U Research Team One of the greatest assets you can have as a trader or investor is having the ability to spot trends, and use that information to draw conclusions about what will occur in the future. I have long used the [...] Double and Triple-Profit Ideas For 2009 Contrarian Profits — Fri, 19 Dec 2008 20:35:29 +0000 pstrongQuote of the week/strong: emI stopped believing in Santa Claus when I was six. Mother took me to see him in a department store and he asked for my autograph. – /emShirley Temple/p pHere are eight stocking stuffers to unwrap./p p1) The conversation between Libertarians and the rest of us (who aren#8217;t on some nutty fringe) would go a lot smoother if we would all agree that laws and regulations do not prevent bad behavior./p pRather, they are merely guideposts to measure the quality of deviance in a way that allows the US#8217;s local, state and federal judiciary to hand out retribution./p pIf you need further proof of this, I offer you two words – Bernard Madoff./p pIn an under-regulated world, Ponzi schemes might not#8230;/p

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The Shape of GDP – Analyst Blog

Stock Market News for September 10, 2009 – Market News

Company News for September 9, 2009 – Corporate Summary

Zacks Analyst Blog Highlights: Illinois Tool Works, Honeywell, Ingersoll Rand, American International Group and Citigroup. – Press Releases

Slack in the Industrials System – Analyst Blog

Smart Money Betting on Heavy Machinery Stocks Gaining in 2009

Double and Triple-Profit Ideas For 2009