TODAY: Medvedev's state of the nation address warns opposition against using democracy to rock the boat; talks up modernization. Media unconvinced President can match word with deed. Topol-M problem for START replacement talks;  Litvinenko suspect Lugovoi willing to speak to London prosecutors?; is Russia really cracking down on nationalists; Putin world's third most powerful according to ForbesIn President Medvedev's second state-of-the-nation address, highlights of which can be found here, he warned opposition politicians not to use democracy as a way to 'destabilize the state and split society'. The fact that the speech emphasized long-term goals, related to cutting time zones, technology and industrial modernization, heralds a call for re-election argues one analyst, quoted in the Moscow ...

Ever come across something so brilliant you wish you had thought of it yourself? Well that's what Seth Hettena has just put together, via sourcing from Vedomosti: an aggregation of the preferred timepieces worn by high-level Russian officialdom as a possible proxy for corruption. There are several questions raised from this little survey, not the least of which is: to those of you contending that Igor Sechin is the real master string-puller, I ask you, have you considered Moscow's Deputy Mayor Vladimir Resin? More importantly, could any of these men hold it together under the mind-bending microscope of Vesper Lynd?

A partial list of who prefers which wristwatch:

Vladimir Putin: Blancpain, Leman Aqualung Grande Date, $10,500

Dmitry Medvedev: Breguet, Classique Moon

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Vladimir Putin has been ranked number 3 in the Forbes list of the most powerful people in the world, President Medvedev comes in 43rd, after Deputy Prime Minister, siloviki chieftain and Rosneft chairman Igor Sechin at number 42. (See the editor's choice for Russia's top seven.) Forbes has got a special feature on the politician the Russian press apparently call 'the scariest person on earth'. There is little solid information about the man. Like many of Putin's cronies, Sechin is a St. Petersburg native. In the 1990s he worked in city government. Before that, it's widely believed he was a spy; Moscow sources confirm that he was a member of the GRU, the KGB's foreign-intelligence arm. ...

Tracing the policy movements of Presidential power-handler Vladislav Surkov is rather like witnessing a three-point turn in a dark alley - as a piece in the Power Vertical points out today.  Whilst transparency is the last thing once can expect from the Kremlin's shadowy ideologue, his moves of late are dizzying analysts.  Brian Whitmore identifies some of Surkov's recent twists - from the motives for his alleged involvement in the Duma walkout - to the matter of his oscillating stance on liberalizing political structures to aid economic development.Whitmore quotes from a Stratfor.com analysis, which suggests that Surkov's maneuvring is underpinned by a familiar motive: power rivalry.  In a recently published four-part series titled "The Kremlin Wars," Stratfor.com offers up one possible answer.According to Stratfor, the Kremlin is divided into two roughly ...

Kafkaesque. The former Russian oil tycoon, who stood up to Putin, is back before his judges. Here is the story. [The following is a translation of an article published in the French publication Le Point.]

Le Point, October 15, 2009

Accused Khodorkovsky, Stand Up!

From our special envoy Marc Nexon

He stands up, opens his spiral notebook and pulls out 3 sheets of paper he has scribbled with his fine handwriting. He pats the microphone installed in his glass cage. "Can you hear me?" he asks, addressing the judge. Then he starts with a clear voice: "I know that in his eyes I embody absolute evil, but I would like to ask quietly a few questions to the witness of the prosecution..."

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Gazprom and the Chinese National Petroleum Corporation have come to an agreement on the framework of gas deliveries to China; issues related to pricing still remain.  Apparently Russian Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin has said Russia could start gas deliveries to China in 2014-2015.  Russia has again raised the suggestion that member states of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization create an energy forum.  France's environmental minister, Chantal Jouanno, has initiated a probe to investigate the reports that nuclear waste from France has been occupying open air parking lots in Siberia.  Norway expects the average price of oil to increase next year as demand grows alongside economic growth.  A new gas extraction technique from the US used to tap into inaccessible reserves is about to hit Europe.  The EU Commissioner for External Relations and European Neighborhood, Benita Ferrero ...

Russia and China have asserted a desire to increase cooperation in the energy industry, at the fifth round of Russian-Chinese energy talks in Beijing, attended by Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin and China's deputy premier Wang Qishan.  When Vladimir Putin visits Beijing this week, he is apparently likely to seal a deal for transit of Russian gas to China which would make the energy-hungry power Gazprom's biggest customer.  According to the Moscow Times, the deal is 'fairly general' and does not mention loans.  Gazprom has not as of yet agreed on the price of natural gas, says Ria-Novosti.  Factbox on Russia-China energy relations here.  Gazprom is apparently on the verge of opening a Brazilian office that will manage its expanding Latin American operations.  ITAR-TASS reports that Iraq is ready to commence talks with Lukoil regarding ...

Economic aide Arkady Dvorkovich has complained that G20 nations are not abstaining from protectionism as promised at the April summit.  Anti-crisis measures will be upheld, Dvorkovich added, apparently contradicting the Central Bank chairman who had said that the crisis has receded enough to consider withdrawing some measures.  Diversifying Russia's economy is going to be an uphill struggle, one that has been put on the back burner by the financial crisis, argues Reuters.  A trade union at Avtovaz automaker has announced it will hold mass protests against the company's decision to enforce redundancies, according to RFE/RL.  Oleg Deripaska's GAZ Group will slash 14,000 jobs.  GAZ will get its hands on GM technology as part of the Opel deal, posing possible problems for the US carmaker's market share in Russia.  Mikhail Prokhorov may bankroll a Brooklyn basketball stadium.  ...

Robert Amsterdam has an opinion article published in The Moscow Times today:

The recent visits to Moscow and Tehran by Hugo Chavez raise a number of concerns about the deepening relations between Russia, Iran and Venezuela.

The motivation behind the Russia-Iran-Venezuela alliance is often misunderstood. On the one hand, there is the narrative that these governments are pursuing national interests, seeking to deepen their security against ever-present external threats and accrue regional power. Others argue that the alliance is driven by an attempt to build an "alternative architecture" of global relations, one that is conveniently unconcerned with democracy and human rights and bound solely by the common value of anti-Americanism.

Both these assumptions are dangerously misleading. In reality, the foreign policies of these three states are driven by the personal interests

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RFE/RL examines the viability of Hugo Chavez' gas OPEC idea - which, it suggests, will face obstacles in the form of pipeline infrastructure and the manifold differences between the oil and gas markets.  According to Bloomberg, the Oil Minister for Saudi Arabia says that oil prices will be influenced by economic growth rather than the volumes stockpiled.  Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin says Russia 'will bear' the criticism from OPEC regarding its implied lack of support.  Russia has made its first foray back into Iraq in six years: Energy Minister Sergei Shmatko has reportedly reached agreements on the building of two gas pipelines and on Russian involvement in the Yusifiyah and Dibis thermal power plants.  Gazprom's second quarter profits have fallen 45% with the drop in crude prices, as the price of Urals fell 50% to $58.41 a barrel.  ...