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Austria: More Than Just A Financial Haven

Contrarian Profits (November 27th, 2008) Writes:
Austria is justifiably famous for its banking system—particularly for its bank secrecy law, which has the same legal status as the Austrian Constitution. But while Austrians take their financial privacy very seriously, there’s another aspect of Austria that doesn’t get as much attention: residence. With its world-class opera, museums, and galleries, Austria is truly one of the world’s most civilized countries. Vienna, its capital, is a cultural treasure. Indeed, Mercer’s, a major human resources consultancy ranks Vienna as the second most desirable city to live in the world (behind Zurich)—and Vienna is much more affordable. And within an hour’s drive of Vienna, you can visit three different countries: the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Slovakia. Austria is also a popular haven for English-speaking expatriates. While you won’t find the concentrations of U.S. expatriates that you would in places like Costa Rica, Panama, or London, you’ll find a high quality of life and reasonable ...

Interest Rates Going Down in the EMs? Who is Hot and Who is Not?

Claus Vistesen (November 26th, 2008) Writes:

Once again, I am flattering an entry with a picture taking here in Switzerland where I am currently entertaining courses at HEC Lausance. As you can see, it is a beautiful place and also, as it were, very interesting with respect to tail fume patterns from the enormous amount of airplanes moving back and forth over le Lac Léman (middle of Europe remember!). Posting is slim I know, but so unfortunately is time; I can assure that it is not out of lack of enthusiasm to write and opinion on current events.

Moving on to the topic du jour it is interesting to observe wow fast things sometimes change. We need not go back more than 5-6 months to observe how hawkish central banks across the economic edifice were busy scrambling to raise rates in order to quell inflationary pressures. Most notably, the

...

Don’t Be Tempted By Huge Emerging Market Bond Yields

Contrarian Profits (November 20th, 2008) Writes:

Industrialized countries are dropping like flies into recession. So far, emerging markets have avoided the economic meltdown. But that is changing, says David Newman. He says investors should not be tempted by the huge bond yields on offer in countries like Argentina. In today’s climate, knowing you will get your money back is much more valuable.

This from The Sovereign Society:

I found this chart online and thought it was such a good representation of what is going on that I just had to share it with you. (Thanks to the folks at http://frigginloon.com/ )

Recession List Image

As I’ve written about before, this is really just the beginning of the flood of bad news we’re going to continually hear about over the next few months.

As you look back over this list, you’ll notice that none of the emerging market countries are on

...

As Italy Enters It’s Fourth Recession Since 2000, Who Will Bail-Out Unicredit?

Edward Hugh (November 14th, 2008) Writes:
by Edward Hugh: BarcelonaItaly, which is still the eurozone's third biggest economy, slipped into a recession in the third quarter. The Italian economy fell into what is now its fourth recession in less than a decade as gross domestic product shrank 0.5 percent from its level in the second quarter, when it contracted a revised 0.4 percent, the national statistics office said today. This is already Italy's worst recession since 1992, and there is evidently more and worse to come.Italy effectively followed Germany, Europe's largest economy, in posting two consecutive quarters of contraction -- the technical definition of a recession. Spain contracted on the quarter, while France narrowly avoided recession by posting a slender 0.1% expansion after contracting in the second quarter.From the third quarter of 2007 the economy contracted 0.9 percent, and this was the sharpest ...

Fitch downgrades Hungary, Romania; Russia, S.Korea next?

Jason G. Wulterkens (November 10th, 2008) Writes:

Fitch Ratings downgraded the sovereign ratings of Hungary (to BBB from BBB-plus), Bulgaria, Kazakhstan (by one notch to BBB-, the lowest investment-grade level) and Romania (by two notches to BB-plus from BBB) on Monday while warning that the ratings of South Korea, South Africa, Russia and Mexico are also in jeopardy.  European Union members Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria and the Baltic states “may not be able to handle their large foreign debt burdens, which could spark financial crises,” Fitch said, adding that problems in advanced economies “triggered extreme volatility in emerging market asset prices” and prompted “liquidity strains”.

It lowered its outlook on South Korea, Mexico, Russia and South Africa to negative from stable, while that of Chile and Malaysia were cut to stable from positive.

Fitch Downgrades the Ruble to Negative

Robert Amsterdam (November 10th, 2008) Writes:
Emerging markets look like they are in for another rough week, Russia included. The Financial Times is reporting that the rating agency Fitch has downgraded the credit rankings of Bulgaria, Hungary, Kazakhstan and Romania, and slashed the long-term currency outlook from stable to negative for South Korea, Mexico, Russia and South Africa. It seems that the market is unimpressed by the Russian government's efforts to handle the crisis, which consists of Dmitry Medvedev calling for the extension of term limits and authorizing the police to "crush" any crisis-related protests. It looks like the halcyon days of profitable authoritarianism may be drawing to a close...

How To Profit From Political Games In Eastern Europe

Andrew Snyder (November 6th, 2008) Writes:

Andrew Snyder says Democrat-fearing investors are now looking overseas for profits. Andrew says Eastern Europe is a hotbed of political conflict. But that could end up creating great money-making opportunities in the energy sector.

This from Today’s Financial News:

What impact will rising taxes, stronger labor unions and increased regulations have on the country’s publicly traded corporations? Well, if today’s trading activity is any indication of what the future holds, we are in for a long road to recovery.

Some investors are taking this as an opportunity to look overseas.

India and the fairly limited impact the global economic crisis has played on the country has been a safe haven for some savvy investors. Even Australia is getting plenty of American investment dollars now that many of its mining stocks are dirt cheap.

While all of these investing notions are solid, international investors can do better. One region you should keep your eye on is

...

Hungarian Industry Takes A Pounding As The Global Storm Clouds Gather

Manuel Alvarez-Rivera (November 6th, 2008) Writes:
Hungarian manufacturing continued to contract in October following a shocking performance in September, while exports drop sharply in the midst of a looming global manufacturing recession. All of which indicates that the real economy impacts of the recent financial turbulence is now about to make its presence felt. I think we are in for a real shocker in Hungary. October PMI Down Hungary's manufacturing industry contracted sharply in October, according to the latest PMI reading, which fell 5.2 points to hit 44.7 in October - a historic low, and 0.8 points below the previous worst reading registered in October 1998, according to the latest data from the Hungarian Association of Logistics, Purchasing and Inventory Management (HALPIM). Sharp Industrial Output Contraction In September Hungarian industrial production dropped the most in more than 16 years in September as the global financial crisis hit the economy and slowing growth in western Europe curbed demand for exports. Production ...

And Then There’s This…Wednesday, November 05th, 2008

Contrarian Profits (November 5th, 2008) Writes:

Tuesday’s low in both gold and silver came at the close of trading in Sydney. From there, a rally began that lasted right until the London p.m. fix. Shortly after the ‘fix’ was in, gold popped up another $20 and silver another 40 cents. That $20 rally in the gold price looked like short covering to me. The party ended for gold at a very familiar time…the close of trading in London…and silver about 15 minutes after that. From that point on, someone made sure that gold only traded sideways and that silver gave up all its gains from its London p.m. fix rally.

The HUI was up a wonderful 15%…and some of the precious metal stocks turned in some rather spectacular performances yesterday…but we’ve got a long way to go to the up-side before we can break out the party hats.

Open interest changes for Monday were as follows….gold o.i. fell

...

IMF Expected to Bailout Iceland, Hungary, Ukraine, is the US Next?

Alex Stanczyk (November 5th, 2008) Writes:

IMF Bailout of the US
Darryl Robert Schoon
Posted Nov 4, 2008

Economics has less to do with money than power.

Modern economics is not rocket science. Modern economics is a fraud. Metrics such as “monetary aggregates” and the “velocity of money” are merely devices meant to divert attention away from the fraud in progress.

Focusing on such metrics has been a critical component in the success of the bankers’ extraordinary shell game of modern economics. But the current crisis has not only interrupted the bankers’ confidence game, it has shed unexpected light on the precarious positions of those fleeced

The producers, savers, entrepreneurs who had previously accepted the banker’s credit based money as legitimate are now discovering they were but suckers in an opaque and cleverly constructed street game, sic Wall Street’s, designed to defraud the unsuspecting and vulnerable onlookers and players.

The greatest casualty of today’s unfolding crisis is the belief that bankers


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