After months of painstaking negotiations, GM has scrapped the Opel sale on the basis that it was 'no longer in the best interests of GM, now that the environment for car sales has started to improve', reports the Independent.  The decision comes just after Opel's labor force had agreed to contribute $390 million in annual savings.  'Management had planned a release saying that they will proceed with Magna, so there must have been a fundamental change of view within the board', the FT quotes an insider as saying.  The Russian government is planning to raise $1.87 billion to bail out ailing carmaker Avtovaz, most of which will be apparently allotted to bad debts, and some of which will be allocated to modernization and on job creation, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has reportedly announced.  Daimler Trucks will proceed ...

by Edward Hugh: Barcelonabr /br /The global manufacturing recession continued in April, with rates of contraction for output, new orders and employment all showing what are effectively sharp contractions by historical standards. The rates of contraction however moderated almost universally, and this is now the fourth month where this moderation has been evident. Thus, while the contraction is far from over, it is reasonable to say the it has stabilised, and the big issue is at what rate it will hold in the months to come. The initial shock has now been absorbed, but that is a far cry from saying that we already have the worst behind us. The general deterioration in employment conditions raises the concern that as the impact of the government stimulus "shocks" in their turn wane, and as national banking systems come under the impact of the additional loan defaults the growing unemployment and falling ...

... is getting increasingly difficult at the moment. Take Hungary for example. I take it that most economic commentators and analyst know that it is bad in Hungary and together with Ukraine I would submit that these two face the largest risk of sporting the next global macro blowout (assuming that Russia does not suddenly collapse prematurely).

Hungary's biggest problem at the moment is how on earth to stay worried about a dropping Forint while at the same time realizing that the country is headed towards the worst recession in several decades. As some readers will remember the reason that the Forint today is subjected to full force of currency punters is to be found one year ago. Back in February, Hungary as well as other emerging markets opted to loosen their pegs towards the USD, the Euro or both in an attempt to "allow" the currency to

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The IMF Senior Regional Representative For Central Europe and the Baltics, Christoph Rosenberg, recently a href="http://www.rgemonitor.com/euro-monitor/254975/why_the_imf_supports_the_latvian_currency_peg"took me to task on RGE Monitor about my Latvian devaluation proposal/a (as did a href="http://www.rgemonitor.com/economonitor-monitor/254905/devaluation_in_latvia_why_not"RGE's own Mary Stokes/a), and I would like now to take a closer look at some of the points they raise.br /br /In the first place, I would like to say that I obviously regard both Chrisoph and Mary as excellent economists, and I was in no way refering to them when I said that arguing in favour of sticking to the present currency peg constitutes trying to justify “virtually the unjustifiable” according to “the implicit consensus among thinking economists.” I do still hold that the consensus is with me, but that certainly does not mean I regard those who differ from me as "unthinking", and certainly hope I didn't give the impression that I was. And with that little ...

The fact that Hungary's National Bank did not decide to make an unexpected interest rate cut at its meeting earlier this week seems to have a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchiveamp;sid=a84zp9hh0af0"surprised some/a, but it really should not have done. According to James Morsink, head of the IMF delegation to Budapest, Hungary only has room to cut its benchmark interest rate a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchiveamp;sid=aW.6Yo1wzmp4"at a “gradual and cautious” pace/a. The reasoning behind this view is simple, any more rapid reduction in the bank's benchmark rate risks being accompanied by a devaluation of the forint, and and any such devaluation would inevitably lead to a rise in mortgage defaults and problems for the banking system as holders of Swiss Franc forex loans find themselves unable to maintain their payments as unemployment rises and wages and salaries fall.br /br /Thus it is that even though the Hungarian economy is now in its worst recession in over a decade ...

Well we now have some of the details of the IMF package for Hungary, and interesting reading it makes. Hungary has in effect secured a 20 billion-euro ($25.5 billion) loan which is going to be sourced by three institutions: the IMF, the EU and the World Bank. The International Monetary Fund is going lend Hungary 12.5 billion euros, the European Union will provide another 6.5 billion euros, and the World Bank is chipping in with a symbolic 1 billion euros. (Really the reasoning behind the tripartite division of the loan may relate more to the pressure which it is thought might fall on IMF funding provision - which stands at about $250 billion at the present time - if more emerging market economies follow the lead of Ukraine, Hungary and Iceland. See this post here for more details and argumentation on this whole problem).The forint naturally rose ...

by Edward Hugh: Barcelona Yesterday, the Ukraine received a USD16.5bn loan from the IMF and the IMF at the same time said that it would agree with the Hungarian government on a rescue package in the coming days. Under normally circumstances this would be good news for CEE assets. However, it seems like the markets are totally giving up on CEE. This morning the Hungarian stock markets have dropped more than 10% despite the promise of an IMF package. ......it is worrying that the CEE markets continue to sell-off despite IMF’s clear commitment to support the region’s markets and economies. One might in fact see the lack of positive response to IMF’s rescue packages for Hungary and the Ukraine as an indication that these packages are in fact making the markets even more nervous that something “is seriously wrong in CEE”. Lars Christensen, Chief Analyst Danske Bank, CEE: Markets fail to respond ...

Hungary has reached agreement with both the International Monetary Fund and the European Union on a broad economic rescue package, including substantial financing, to stabilize the Hungarian economy which besides being shaken by the global financial crisis now faces serious population-ageing related macro economic and structural problems moving forward."A substantial financing package in support of these strong policies will beannounced when the program is finalized in the next few days," IMF ManagingDirector Dominique Strauss-Kahn said in a statement that did not indicate thesize of the package. Hungary (which is a member of the European Union but not the Eurozone), has been in talks with the IMF since early October in an attempt to sort out a package which will do something to restore confidence in falling markets.Hungary's government and the central bank have taken a series of measures to shore up the ...

by Edward Hugh: BarcelonaHungary announced on Sunday that it had reached agreement with both the International Monetary Fund and the European Union on a broad economic rescue package, which will include substantial financing, in a bid to stabilize a Hungarian economy which has been both shaken by the global financial crisis and faces long term macro economic and structural problems which make any easy solution to the situation hard to expect."A substantial financing package in support of these strong policies will be announced when the program is finalized in the next few days," IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn said in a statement that did not indicate the size of the package. Hungary announced the loan at more or less the same time as Ukraine received a USD16.5bn loan from the IMF. Under normal circumstances both these moves would be good news for Central and East European equity markets assets. This was not the case on this occassion, however, and Hungary's stock markets fell more than 10% on opening yesterday, suggesting that either investors are not convinced the packages will be sufficient, or that they fear there is more to come.

by Edward Hugh: Barcelona Hungarian Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsány announced yesterday (Wednesday) that the government had reached an agreement with commercial banks intended to protect the interests of those who have taken out foreign currency loans. The agreement, which is expected to be signed early next week, has three key components: 1) At the request of the debtor the banks will allow the duration of the loan to be extended (with fixed monthly instalments) so that the depreciation of the forint “does not place an unbearable burden on the debtors". 2) FX debtors who deem that exchange rate fluctuations carry excessive risks for them will be allowed to convert their foreign currency-based loan to a forint loan. In this case the banks “will accept this request and make the switch without extra charges". 3) If a debtor finds him- or herself in a position where he or she cannot pay the monthly instalments, e.g. due ...