Lehman Brothers folded a year ago, plunging the financial world into chaos. Through the eyes of an eclectic fund manager Hugh Hendry, the most enigmatic banking analyst in the UK, we take a nostalgic look at the past 12 months.

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Source: Bizcast iafrica.com, September 15, 2009.

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Hugh Hendry, founder of Eclectica Asset Management, shares his views on the investment scene in his latest “Fund Manager Commentary” that has just been published. He is not only outspoken, but also a top-notch investment manager - just the right ingredients for compelling reading material.

The paragraphs below are the introduction to Hendry’s report.

“Good people are becoming desperate. I know a man who is planning to capitulate and buy stocks. He cannot comprehend what is happening today. He is, to employ Churchill, a fanatic; he won’t change his mind and he can’t change the subject. But, fearing the loss of his franchise, he will change his portfolio. He laments that it is as though last year’s events never happened. Rhetorically, he asks whether we have all been sent through time to invest in equities at the end of the 1970s when stocks were cheap and society had thoroughly

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This home-made clip features Hugh Hendry, founder of Eclectica Asset Management, walking around the streets of  China (presumably Beijing or Shanghai) and pointing out numerous empty buildings. Huge debt must have been incurred in erecting these buildings and without tenants there is no prospect of servicing the debt. What’s more, the workmanship also seems shoddy as a nearly-completed 13-story building in Shanghai collapsed last month.

Who will pick up the tab for creating all the overcapacity in the Chinese economy?

Hendry has perhaps looked at only a limited sample, but the video provides food for though in the greater economic scheme of things.

Source: YouTube, March 27, 2009 (hat tip: Edward Harrison, Credit Writedowns).

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Ireland is nearly broke. Its debt was downgraded a couple weeks ago. Unemployment is near 14%. Deflation is at 5.4% — the highest since the Great Depression of the ‘30s.

And it’s not over. It’s “too early” to talk about recovery, says Finance Minister Brian Lenihan.

It’s too early in England too. Financial Advisor Peter Hargreaves says that talk of ‘green shoots’ gives rise to illusions. People think they see the light of dawn when the sun is still going down. And forget about a V–shaped recovery. There won’t be any simple bounce-back. Nor even a W-shaped double decline. “There could be a quadruple dip in my opinion,” he said.

And what about California? This week’s Economist magazine gives us a new measure for California’ budget deficit — $26 billion, up from the $24 billion last reported in this space. A widely published photo shows Arnold Schwarzenegger smoking a cigar…apparently confident that the

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Hugh Hendry, founder of Eclectica Asset Management, shares his views on a number of topical issues with the Financial Times’s Gillian Tett in a three-part interview. He is not only outspoken, but also a top-notch investment manager - just the right ingredients for compelling viewing material.

Part 1: Bond bull, equity bear Hendry explains why he remains bullish on bonds and worried about deflation.

Click here or on the image below to view the video clip.

Part 2: Fed hasn’t done enough Hendry explains why record issuances will still see bond yields fall, and how politics is tying the Fed’s hands.

Click here to view part 2 of the interview.

Part 3: Bearish

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The holiday-shortened week saw investors pondering the depth of the economic rabbit-hole. As investors vacillated, most financial markets were characterized by a roller-coaster ride. Friday’s worse-than-expected jobs data left no doubt that the economy was in recession.

The highlights of the week’s discussions were captured on video and are included in this video-o-rama compilation. Strutting their stuff was a star-studded cast including the likes of George Soros, Hugh Hendry, Dan Greenhaus, Paul Krugman, Bill Gross, Nassim Taleb, Jeff Immelt, Stephen Roach, Bob Prechter and Marc Faber.

As an aside, the weather in Europe - where I am spending two weeks with my family in Slovenia and Switzerland - has been characterized of late by endless thunderstorms. Strikingly, the economic mood is no less despondent than that of the holiday-makers trying to escape the ominous dark clouds. But wait, is that a forecast for better days ahead?

Elsewhere, the jail

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As stock markets attempt to notch up a sixth consecutive week of gains, the debate as to the longevity of the nascent rally rages on. The featured video material sees Steve Leuthold stating that the S&P 500 Index will rise to 1,100 this year, but Laslo Birinyi taking a bearish stance and advising that the “odds are not with you”. Similarly, Jim Rogers expects more “bottoms”, Nouriel Roubini claims markets to be “way too optimistic” and acclaimed Cazenove chartist Robin Griffiths is looking for a retest of the March 9 lows.

As far as the economic outlook is concerned, Martin Feldstain refers to the “faux recovery”, whereas Wilbur Ross and Abby Cohen comment on the slowdown in the econimic deterioration. Adding to the economic debate and related issues such as bank stress tests, the blame game, Goldman Sachs and commercial real estate, this week’s harvest

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Rioting Greeks, angry Germans and why the euro may well collapse

By Mary Ellen Synon
Last updated at 8:05 AM on 27th January 2009

Nothing to panic about: Jean-Claude Trichet insists the euro is not in trouble

The Brussels elite are pretending the question does not arise, but the financial world knows the question is there, hanging over the entire European Union economy: is the single European currency going to break apart?

One answer was given last week by the Swedish economist Gabriel Stein at Lombard Street Research: ‘Euro RIP – not yet, but not unthinkable. Why not? The grass might indeed be greener on the other side of the fence.’

Another answer was given by the hedge fund boss Hugh Hendry, founding partner of Eclectica Asset Management: ‘I fear it is becoming more likely that the euro will break up.’

Original Article

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Church Attacks Short SellingChurch of England Supports Attacks Short SellingHere is an interesting article about the Church of England, their support in banning short selling tactics while also profiting from lending stock from their investment pool to short sellers.Hedge fund managers reacted with fury yesterday to an attack on short selling and debt trading by leaders of the Church of England yesterday, pointing to the contradiction between what they say and how they invest their vast assets.Rowan Williams, the archbishop of Canterbury and head of the Anglican church, said it was right to ban short selling, while John Sentamu, archbishop of York, called traders who cashed in on falling prices "bank robbers and asset strippers".Hedge funds ...