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	<title>Stock Market News &#38; Stocks to Watch from StraightStocks &#187; http</title>
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	<link>http://www.straightstocks.com</link>
	<description>Leading Stock Market News, Opinions and Commentary</description>
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		<title>Oil May Look Placid on the Surface – But It&#8217;s Roiling Underneath</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-lessons/oil-may-look-placid-on-the-surface-%e2%80%93-but-its-roiling-underneath/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-lessons/oil-may-look-placid-on-the-surface-%e2%80%93-but-its-roiling-underneath/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 23 Nov 2009 12:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Taipan Publishing Group</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Investing Lessons]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[crude oil]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[http]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[migraine]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Oil]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.taipanpublishinggroup.com/taipan-daily-112309.html</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[On the surface, oil seems like it’s going nowhere… but the story is very different below the waterline.

Keeping up with crude oil is a bit of a migraine these days.

nbsp;It’s an essential task, of...div class="feedflare"
a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=6NiNcS-kFuA:OkuO7KLYUcM:yIl2AUoC8zA"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?d=yIl2AUoC8zA" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=6NiNcS-kFuA:OkuO7KLYUcM:V_sGLiPBpWU"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?i=6NiNcS-kFuA:OkuO7KLYUcM:V_sGLiPBpWU" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=6NiNcS-kFuA:OkuO7KLYUcM:F7zBnMyn0Lo"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?i=6NiNcS-kFuA:OkuO7KLYUcM:F7zBnMyn0Lo" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=6NiNcS-kFuA:OkuO7KLYUcM:wd9GD17jvC4"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?d=wd9GD17jvC4" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=6NiNcS-kFuA:OkuO7KLYUcM:l6gmwiTKsz0"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?d=l6gmwiTKsz0" border="0"/img/a
/divimg src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/taipan/~4/6NiNcS-kFuA" height="1" width="1"/]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>To Be Rich as Rockefeller, Embrace Dividends</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-lessons/to-be-rich-as-rockefeller-embrace-dividends/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-lessons/to-be-rich-as-rockefeller-embrace-dividends/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 18 Nov 2009 12:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Taipan Publishing Group</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Investing Lessons]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[http]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[John D. Rockefeller  Hi]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.taipanpublishinggroup.com/taipan-daily-111809.html</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[“Do you know the only thing that gives me pleasure? It's to see my dividends coming in.” 
nbsp;– John D. Rockefeller

Hi, it’s Kent again – filling in for Justice for another day. Let’s slightly...div class="feedflare"
a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=_5lRxmwWrwI:cYn988oPGek:yIl2AUoC8zA"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?d=yIl2AUoC8zA" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=_5lRxmwWrwI:cYn988oPGek:V_sGLiPBpWU"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?i=_5lRxmwWrwI:cYn988oPGek:V_sGLiPBpWU" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=_5lRxmwWrwI:cYn988oPGek:F7zBnMyn0Lo"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?i=_5lRxmwWrwI:cYn988oPGek:F7zBnMyn0Lo" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=_5lRxmwWrwI:cYn988oPGek:wd9GD17jvC4"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?d=wd9GD17jvC4" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=_5lRxmwWrwI:cYn988oPGek:l6gmwiTKsz0"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?d=l6gmwiTKsz0" border="0"/img/a
/divimg src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/taipan/~4/_5lRxmwWrwI" height="1" width="1"/]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-lessons/to-be-rich-as-rockefeller-embrace-dividends/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Lucas Energy Reports Second Fiscal Quarter 2009-2010 Results, Turns EBITDA Positive</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-lessons/lucas-energy-reports-second-fiscal-quarter-2009-2010-results-turns-ebitda-positive/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-lessons/lucas-energy-reports-second-fiscal-quarter-2009-2010-results-turns-ebitda-positive/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 17 Nov 2009 15:09:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Stuart T. Smith</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Investing Lessons]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Small & Micro Cap]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ceo]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[chemical treatments;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Crude Oil Prices]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Governor]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Houston]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[http]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Lower oil revenues]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[lower oil sales]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Lucas Energy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Oil And Gas Production]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Oil Prices]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[oil sales]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Securities And Exchange Commission]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[smallcapvoice]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Texas]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[USD]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[William Sawyer]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[www.sec.gov]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://smallcapvoice.com/blog/?p=3098</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[HOUSTON, Nov. 16, 2009 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) &#8212; Lucas Energy, Inc. (NYSE Amex:LEI), an independent oil and gas company (the &#8220;Company&#8221;) based in Houston, Texas reports the financial results from operations for second quarter of fiscal year 2009-2010.

For the second quarter fiscal year 2009-2010, the Company reports:

Revenues for the quarter ended September 30, 2009 were $414,218 [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-lessons/lucas-energy-reports-second-fiscal-quarter-2009-2010-results-turns-ebitda-positive/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Protecting and Growing Your Wealth – A Value Perspective</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-lessons/protecting-and-growing-your-wealth-%e2%80%93-a-value-perspective/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-lessons/protecting-and-growing-your-wealth-%e2%80%93-a-value-perspective/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 17 Nov 2009 12:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Taipan Publishing Group</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Investing Lessons]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[editor]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[http]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.taipanpublishinggroup.com/taipan-daily-111709.html</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[When Justice first asked me to fill in as a guest editor this week, I thought, “Those are some tough shoes to fill.” But I realized that if I wrote about what I’m passionate about and what I’ve spent...div class="feedflare"
a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=kv2RwKb5sk8:JdVEuuh32qw:yIl2AUoC8zA"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?d=yIl2AUoC8zA" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=kv2RwKb5sk8:JdVEuuh32qw:V_sGLiPBpWU"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?i=kv2RwKb5sk8:JdVEuuh32qw:V_sGLiPBpWU" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=kv2RwKb5sk8:JdVEuuh32qw:F7zBnMyn0Lo"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?i=kv2RwKb5sk8:JdVEuuh32qw:F7zBnMyn0Lo" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=kv2RwKb5sk8:JdVEuuh32qw:wd9GD17jvC4"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?d=wd9GD17jvC4" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=kv2RwKb5sk8:JdVEuuh32qw:l6gmwiTKsz0"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?d=l6gmwiTKsz0" border="0"/img/a
/divimg src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/taipan/~4/kv2RwKb5sk8" height="1" width="1"/]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Buffett&#8217;s Hidden Reasons for Buying BNI</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-lessons/buffetts-hidden-reasons-for-buying-bni/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-lessons/buffetts-hidden-reasons-for-buying-bni/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 10 Nov 2009 12:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Taipan Publishing Group</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Investing Lessons]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[burlington northern santa fe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[http]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Omaha]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Oracle]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.taipanpublishinggroup.com/taipan-daily-111009.html</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Did Buffett overpay for Burlington Northern Santa Fe? The Oracle of Omaha surprised many of his followers by doing such an expensive deal. On looking behind the scenes, though, the reasoning makes...div class="feedflare"
a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=ZCCL7BVxmaY:58I9exYpTkg:yIl2AUoC8zA"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?d=yIl2AUoC8zA" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=ZCCL7BVxmaY:58I9exYpTkg:V_sGLiPBpWU"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?i=ZCCL7BVxmaY:58I9exYpTkg:V_sGLiPBpWU" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=ZCCL7BVxmaY:58I9exYpTkg:F7zBnMyn0Lo"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?i=ZCCL7BVxmaY:58I9exYpTkg:F7zBnMyn0Lo" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=ZCCL7BVxmaY:58I9exYpTkg:wd9GD17jvC4"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?d=wd9GD17jvC4" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=ZCCL7BVxmaY:58I9exYpTkg:l6gmwiTKsz0"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?d=l6gmwiTKsz0" border="0"/img/a
/divimg src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/taipan/~4/ZCCL7BVxmaY" height="1" width="1"/]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Gold, Small Caps and the Dollar Look Ready to Part Ways</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-lessons/gold-small-caps-and-the-dollar-look-ready-to-part-ways/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-lessons/gold-small-caps-and-the-dollar-look-ready-to-part-ways/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 09 Nov 2009 12:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Taipan Publishing Group</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Investing Lessons]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[http]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marc Faber]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.taipanpublishinggroup.com/taipan-daily-110909.html</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Gold, small caps and the U.S. dollar have had a stable three-way relationship for the better part of the 2009 rally. Now the three could be parting ways.

Dr. Marc Faber is one of the few market wise...div class="feedflare"
a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=ADeba3WNcj4:RY9KCo6s3us:yIl2AUoC8zA"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?d=yIl2AUoC8zA" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=ADeba3WNcj4:RY9KCo6s3us:V_sGLiPBpWU"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?i=ADeba3WNcj4:RY9KCo6s3us:V_sGLiPBpWU" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=ADeba3WNcj4:RY9KCo6s3us:F7zBnMyn0Lo"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?i=ADeba3WNcj4:RY9KCo6s3us:F7zBnMyn0Lo" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=ADeba3WNcj4:RY9KCo6s3us:wd9GD17jvC4"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?d=wd9GD17jvC4" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=ADeba3WNcj4:RY9KCo6s3us:l6gmwiTKsz0"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?d=l6gmwiTKsz0" border="0"/img/a
/divimg src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/taipan/~4/ADeba3WNcj4" height="1" width="1"/]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>An Overly Full Measure of Faith and Credit</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-lessons/an-overly-full-measure-of-faith-and-credit/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-lessons/an-overly-full-measure-of-faith-and-credit/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 05 Nov 2009 12:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Adam Lass</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Investing Lessons]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[http]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Washington]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.taipanpublishinggroup.com/taipan-daily-110509.html</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Impending national bankruptcy is no reason to expect Washington to stop spending at full tilt.

As I sit to write to you today, the market is up for the third day in a row. This brings a bit of...div class="feedflare"
a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=KG_-BV2_VE8:e_xAVUy9h1Y:yIl2AUoC8zA"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?d=yIl2AUoC8zA" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=KG_-BV2_VE8:e_xAVUy9h1Y:V_sGLiPBpWU"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?i=KG_-BV2_VE8:e_xAVUy9h1Y:V_sGLiPBpWU" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=KG_-BV2_VE8:e_xAVUy9h1Y:F7zBnMyn0Lo"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?i=KG_-BV2_VE8:e_xAVUy9h1Y:F7zBnMyn0Lo" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=KG_-BV2_VE8:e_xAVUy9h1Y:wd9GD17jvC4"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?d=wd9GD17jvC4" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=KG_-BV2_VE8:e_xAVUy9h1Y:l6gmwiTKsz0"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?d=l6gmwiTKsz0" border="0"/img/a
/divimg src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/taipan/~4/KG_-BV2_VE8" height="1" width="1"/]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>What Will Obama Do to Stop Big Oil From Popping His Bubble?</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-lessons/what-will-obama-do-to-stop-big-oil-from-popping-his-bubble/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-lessons/what-will-obama-do-to-stop-big-oil-from-popping-his-bubble/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 02 Nov 2009 12:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Adam Lass</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Investing Lessons]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[http]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[USD]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[White House]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.taipanpublishinggroup.com/taipan-daily-110209.html</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[$80 Oil? So what! What will the White House do when it hits $120?

“Oil down to $80!”

A year ago, that headline was impressive, because crude futures had been hanging out around $144 a barrel, and...div class="feedflare"
a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=HNM95zA91nU:VeDGRtBTOHI:yIl2AUoC8zA"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?d=yIl2AUoC8zA" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=HNM95zA91nU:VeDGRtBTOHI:V_sGLiPBpWU"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?i=HNM95zA91nU:VeDGRtBTOHI:V_sGLiPBpWU" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=HNM95zA91nU:VeDGRtBTOHI:F7zBnMyn0Lo"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?i=HNM95zA91nU:VeDGRtBTOHI:F7zBnMyn0Lo" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=HNM95zA91nU:VeDGRtBTOHI:wd9GD17jvC4"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?d=wd9GD17jvC4" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=HNM95zA91nU:VeDGRtBTOHI:l6gmwiTKsz0"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?d=l6gmwiTKsz0" border="0"/img/a
/divimg src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/taipan/~4/HNM95zA91nU" height="1" width="1"/]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Ken Fisher Interview  &#8211; Part 4 – Female Scam Artists and Selling the Scam – Stockerblog Exclusive</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/stock-watch/ken-fisher-interview-part-4-%e2%80%93-female-scam-artists-and-selling-the-scam-%e2%80%93-stockerblog-exclusive/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/stock-watch/ken-fisher-interview-part-4-%e2%80%93-female-scam-artists-and-selling-the-scam-%e2%80%93-stockerblog-exclusive/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 21 Oct 2009 22:59:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Fred Fuld</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Investing Lessons]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Market Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stocks to Watch]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Ken Fisher Interview]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ken Fisher Interview Part]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Stanford]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23020893.post-3957293992784153551</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Ken Fisher is a money manager, Forbes columnist, and is one of the Forbes 400 richest Americans. He is also author of several books, including his two latest, a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0470285362?ie=UTF8tag=antiquestocka-20linkCode=as2camp=1789creative=9325creativeASIN=0470285362"The Ten Roads to Riches: The Ways the Wealthy Got There (And How You Can Too!) (Fisher Investments Press)/aimg src="http://www.assoc-amazon.com/e/ir?t=antiquestocka-20l=as2o=1a=0470285362" width="1" height="1" border="0" alt="" style="border:none !important; margin:0px !important;" / and a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/047052653X?ie=UTF8tag=antiquestocka-20linkCode=as2camp=1789creative=9325creativeASIN=047052653X"How to Smell a Rat: The Five Signs of Financial Fraud (Fisher Investments Press)/aimg src="http://www.assoc-amazon.com/e/ir?t=antiquestocka-20l=as2o=1a=047052653X" width="1" height="1" border="0" alt="" style="border:none !important; margin:0px !important;" /br /br /Ken Fisher Interview Part 4br /br /span style="font-weight:bold;"Stockerblog/span: I wanted to talk just a bit about con men versus con women. Do you see more women becoming con artists in the future or do you think it will primarily be men?br /br /span style="font-weight:bold;"Fisher/span: The history, as I mentioned in the book a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/047052653X?ie=UTF8tag=antiquestocka-20linkCode=as2camp=1789creative=9325creativeASIN=047052653X"How to Smell a Rat/aimg src="http://www.assoc-amazon.com/e/ir?t=antiquestocka-20l=as2o=1a=047052653X" width="1" height="1" border="0" alt="" style="border:none !important; margin:0px !important;" /, is almost exclusively men. In fact, one of the points I make in the book is that up to this point in time, which can be very different in the future as you allude to, is that one of the best ways that you can protect yourself against Ponzi schemes is to just simply invest with women, not men, because we don’t have this extensive history of women doing this. br /br /But I do believe that women are as smart, as capable, and when you look at other forms of criminality, you actually see their presence and in some types of criminality, predominance of female criminals. So, for example, when you look at a different form of embezzlement, this is where somebody in a small business embezzles from the business. Traditionally, that felony has been overwhelmingly female. Because there is more money in doing securities embezzlement than there is from embezzling from a company, and because there is somewhat greater ability in controlling your environment doing that, I do believe we will see an increase in future cycles of female Ponzi scheme embezzlers who say "The only mistake that Madoff made was not getting out of the country fast enough."br /br /span style="font-weight:bold;"Stockerblog/span: Is the person on the rainmaker side just as culpable as the back office person or the person who runs the scheme?br /br /span style="font-weight:bold;"Fisher/span: Oh sure. Absolutely. People who are participatory to a Ponzi scheme should have known that they were participatory to a Ponzi scheme. They should have known something was up. People around Alan Stanford knew something was up. br /br /You think about Madoff. This is one of the sad dilemmas of this. Madoff's behavior was that he wanted to stay away from his employees so his employees wouldn't figure him out. So he came in and supposedly traded European markets at night when the employees would be away, and then he would leave. He was trying to minimize the contact with his employees in his otherwise normal business so that he can pull this off. br /br /Nobody pulls this stuff off by themselves in volume. The notion from the beginning that Madoff acted alone, which is what he claimed, was a ridiculous notion. I believe that he wanted that as a notion because if he could convince people of that and they couldn't figure out who else was participatory, they wouldn't get other people to testify against him, against other family members, against Lord only knows who. Nobody can pull off these large Ponzi schemes acting by themselves, it's just too much to do. It's impossible to envision that someone who's participatory to an event at that kind of scale, doesn't have at least some ability to sense that something's wrong, even if they don’t know exactly know what it is. br /br /span style="font-weight:bold;"Stockerblog/span: But it almost seems like the person who is bringing in the money is the key. If you don't have  that person bringing that money in, they can't perpetrate their fraud. Doesn't there have to be a sales aspect to the person. I'm sure there are con men out there who have tried to swindle people and couldn't even get anybody to give them a hundred bucks. Do you see what I'm getting at? Is there a personality trait?br /br /span style="font-weight:bold;"Fisher/span: A lot of the small-time Ponzi scheme people do it themselves without any extra help. If you are small enough, you can do it by yourself. The feature where you start to need help and you need that sales function is when you get bigger. A lot of what people like Madoff did was use intermediaries, because the intermediaries never get that close to them. If you look at all the intermediaries that have gotten stung by the Madoff event, you scratch your head and say "Gee, I wonder why they didn't figure it out." The answer is that he paid them well enough for them not to think about it twice. br /br /span style="font-weight:bold;"Stockerblog/span: So the head of the scam doesn't have to be a super salesperson as long as either the staff or the people who will refer business to them do the selling for them.br /br /span style="font-weight:bold;"Fisher/span: They have to have the scheme figured out, however. And usually a lot of these people themselves will upon occasion, will act as the salesperson. It's usually down the vein of "I'll take ten minutes with you. I really don't have a lot of time. I'm very busy. I'm very important. You know, your brother-in-law Joe has been a happy client for four years. Go ask Joe the questions, and then when your want, here's the forms, and we'll take your money. I wouldn't take your money normally because you're not wealthy enough to be one of my clients but because of your brother-in-law, and I've already got Joe, in this one instance, I'll take you." They encourage the person to go to their brother-in-law who's been with him for four years, thinks he's had great returns, thinks everything is wonderful, never had a clue, and the person would put the money in. br /br /But you're absolutely right. Most of these entities don't have huge sales organizations of their own. But Stanford did, and the people didn't figure it out because they're paid enough to not figure it out. br /br /span style="font-weight:bold;"Stockerblog/span: It seems like you have to have that sales orientation personality trait just to get the thing going. You have to be able to sell it to your intermediaries, you have to be able to sell it to your staff.br /br /span style="font-weight:bold;"Fisher/span: I think there's something to that. The nature of people wanting the high return, low risk feature with slow steady returns, and never a bad year, and too good to be true, is such a powerful weakness in all of us, that things that should be common sensical to us, we just don't look at. br /br /Charles Ponzi was on the one hand, an Italian American Catholic in Boston who embezzled from Italian American Catholics in Boston with no particular background that should justify his being able to do this, while claiming that he put $10 million in international postal certificates when the total universe of international postal certificates was at the time $75,000. You would think somebody would say "I wonder if there's enough international postal certificates around to do what this guy's doing." br /br /But the same problem applies to Madoff because if you look at the securities Madoff claims to have traded, they were never liquid enough to deal with the amount of money he had. We as humans tend to be very slow to learn.  br /br /span style="font-weight:bold;"End of Part 4 – Stay Tuned for Part 5br /If you missed Part 1, you can check it out a href="http://stockerblog.blogspot.com/2009/09/ken-fisher-interview-part-1-madoff-and.html" target="_blank"here/a/span.br /If you missed Part 2, you can check it out a href="http://stockerblog.blogspot.com/2009/10/ken-fisher-interview-part-2-clawbacks.html" target="_blank"here/a.br /If you missed Part 3, you can check it out a href="http://stockerblog.blogspot.com/2009/10/ken-fisher-interview-part-3-private.html" target="_blank"here/a.br /br /By Fred Fuld at a href="http://Stockerblog.com"Stockerblog.com/abr /br /span style="font-style:italic;"Copyright 2009. All rights reserved. Reproduction of this interview prohibited with out permission. All opinions are those of Ken Fisher, and do not represent the opinions of Stockerblog.com or the interviewer. Neither Stockerblog nor the interviewer nor the interviewee are rendering tax, legal, or investment advice in this interview.br //spandiv class="blogger-post-footer"div class='adsense' style='text-align:center; padding: 0px 3px 0.5em 3px;'
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		<title>Washington and Wall Street Are Destroying the Republic</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-lessons/washington-and-wall-street-are-destroying-the-republic/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-lessons/washington-and-wall-street-are-destroying-the-republic/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 02 Oct 2009 12:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Justice Litle Editorial Director Taipan Publishing Group</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Investing Lessons]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[http]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Republic Itrsquo;s official]]></category>
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		<description><![CDATA[It’s official: Washington and Wall Street are run (and overrun) by evil clowns. Revelations in and around the markets this past week give testimony to that fact...

And I sincerely believe, with you,...div class="feedflare"
a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=H7QcEoOYv34:WLLHtoEP6zQ:yIl2AUoC8zA"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?d=yIl2AUoC8zA" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=H7QcEoOYv34:WLLHtoEP6zQ:V_sGLiPBpWU"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?i=H7QcEoOYv34:WLLHtoEP6zQ:V_sGLiPBpWU" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=H7QcEoOYv34:WLLHtoEP6zQ:F7zBnMyn0Lo"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?i=H7QcEoOYv34:WLLHtoEP6zQ:F7zBnMyn0Lo" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=H7QcEoOYv34:WLLHtoEP6zQ:wd9GD17jvC4"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?d=wd9GD17jvC4" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=H7QcEoOYv34:WLLHtoEP6zQ:l6gmwiTKsz0"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?d=l6gmwiTKsz0" border="0"/img/a
/divimg src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/taipan/~4/H7QcEoOYv34" height="1" width="1"/]]></description>
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		<title>A Twisted Excuse</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-lessons/a-twisted-excuse/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-lessons/a-twisted-excuse/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 01 Oct 2009 05:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Adam Lass</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Investing Lessons]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[http]]></category>
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		<description><![CDATA[When  the market rally comes to an end, Washington and Wall Street will convince the herd  why it ended – no  matter how twisted or strange.

One of the more peculiar pastimes for technical analysts...div class="feedflare"
a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=w7TS3v0CM4w:Jq9y8ravKA8:yIl2AUoC8zA"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?d=yIl2AUoC8zA" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=w7TS3v0CM4w:Jq9y8ravKA8:V_sGLiPBpWU"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?i=w7TS3v0CM4w:Jq9y8ravKA8:V_sGLiPBpWU" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=w7TS3v0CM4w:Jq9y8ravKA8:F7zBnMyn0Lo"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?i=w7TS3v0CM4w:Jq9y8ravKA8:F7zBnMyn0Lo" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=w7TS3v0CM4w:Jq9y8ravKA8:wd9GD17jvC4"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?d=wd9GD17jvC4" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=w7TS3v0CM4w:Jq9y8ravKA8:l6gmwiTKsz0"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?d=l6gmwiTKsz0" border="0"/img/a
/divimg src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/taipan/~4/w7TS3v0CM4w" height="1" width="1"/]]></description>
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		<title>Readers Respond – Cheers and Jeers in the &#8220;Civil Discourse&#8221; Debate</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/current-market-news/readers-respond-%e2%80%93-cheers-and-jeers-in-the-civil-discourse-debate/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/current-market-news/readers-respond-%e2%80%93-cheers-and-jeers-in-the-civil-discourse-debate/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 15 Sep 2009 05:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Taipan Publishing Group</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Current Market News]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Joe Wilson]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[Was Joe Wilson a  Republican hit man with no class, or was he a patriot for acting as he did? Can  our politicians handle the challenge of aggressive debate, or is that simply  asking too much of...div class="feedflare"
a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=lkOnTwR__6c:QOXBPEg3bc8:yIl2AUoC8zA"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?d=yIl2AUoC8zA" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=lkOnTwR__6c:QOXBPEg3bc8:V_sGLiPBpWU"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?i=lkOnTwR__6c:QOXBPEg3bc8:V_sGLiPBpWU" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=lkOnTwR__6c:QOXBPEg3bc8:F7zBnMyn0Lo"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?i=lkOnTwR__6c:QOXBPEg3bc8:F7zBnMyn0Lo" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=lkOnTwR__6c:QOXBPEg3bc8:wd9GD17jvC4"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?d=wd9GD17jvC4" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=lkOnTwR__6c:QOXBPEg3bc8:l6gmwiTKsz0"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?d=l6gmwiTKsz0" border="0"/img/a
/divimg src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/taipan/~4/lkOnTwR__6c" height="1" width="1"/]]></description>
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		<title>Slaves to the Past?</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/current-market-news/slaves-to-the-past/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/current-market-news/slaves-to-the-past/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 10 Sep 2009 05:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Adam Lass</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Current Market News]]></category>
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		<description><![CDATA[The Master Chart indicates that a gut check IS looming out  there. Herersquo;s how to spot it coming.

ldquo;Whereof whatrsquo;s past is prologue; what to come, in yours  and my...div class="feedflare"
a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=z9TV1gCSYTg:UWkItBUdMf8:yIl2AUoC8zA"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?d=yIl2AUoC8zA" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=z9TV1gCSYTg:UWkItBUdMf8:V_sGLiPBpWU"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?i=z9TV1gCSYTg:UWkItBUdMf8:V_sGLiPBpWU" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=z9TV1gCSYTg:UWkItBUdMf8:F7zBnMyn0Lo"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?i=z9TV1gCSYTg:UWkItBUdMf8:F7zBnMyn0Lo" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=z9TV1gCSYTg:UWkItBUdMf8:wd9GD17jvC4"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?d=wd9GD17jvC4" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=z9TV1gCSYTg:UWkItBUdMf8:l6gmwiTKsz0"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?d=l6gmwiTKsz0" border="0"/img/a
/divimg src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/taipan/~4/z9TV1gCSYTg" height="1" width="1"/]]></description>
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		<title>Gold Stocks – Poised for an Epic Bull Run?</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/current-market-news/gold-stocks-%e2%80%93-poised-for-an-epic-bull-run/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/current-market-news/gold-stocks-%e2%80%93-poised-for-an-epic-bull-run/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 09 Sep 2009 05:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Justice Litle Editorial Director Taipan Publishing Group</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Current Market News]]></category>
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		<description><![CDATA[Gold stocks could be headed for an epic bull run, of the  sort not seen since the heady inflationary days of the late 1970s. Justice  explores the logic behind a sustainable bull move. 

Yesterday we...div class="feedflare"
a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=_F8TIowbtyk:A3TgqXRCEz4:yIl2AUoC8zA"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?d=yIl2AUoC8zA" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=_F8TIowbtyk:A3TgqXRCEz4:V_sGLiPBpWU"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?i=_F8TIowbtyk:A3TgqXRCEz4:V_sGLiPBpWU" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=_F8TIowbtyk:A3TgqXRCEz4:F7zBnMyn0Lo"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?i=_F8TIowbtyk:A3TgqXRCEz4:F7zBnMyn0Lo" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=_F8TIowbtyk:A3TgqXRCEz4:wd9GD17jvC4"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?d=wd9GD17jvC4" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=_F8TIowbtyk:A3TgqXRCEz4:l6gmwiTKsz0"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?d=l6gmwiTKsz0" border="0"/img/a
/divimg src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/taipan/~4/_F8TIowbtyk" height="1" width="1"/]]></description>
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		<title>Switzerland&#8217;s Oldest Bank Flees America&#8217;s Iron Tax Curtain</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/current-market-news/switzerlands-oldest-bank-flees-americas-iron-tax-curtain/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/current-market-news/switzerlands-oldest-bank-flees-americas-iron-tax-curtain/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 04 Sep 2009 05:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Justice Litle Editorial Director Taipan Publishing Group</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Current Market News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[America]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bank]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Oldest Bank Flees America]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Switzerland]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[A 268-year-old Swiss bank has elected to say “Farewell  America,” both figuratively and literally, as America’s iron tax curtain  descends upon the world. Dark portents loom, some prophesied by an...div class="feedflare"
a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=8fDwSelENvA:A5xDnBvKSQI:yIl2AUoC8zA"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?d=yIl2AUoC8zA" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=8fDwSelENvA:A5xDnBvKSQI:V_sGLiPBpWU"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?i=8fDwSelENvA:A5xDnBvKSQI:V_sGLiPBpWU" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=8fDwSelENvA:A5xDnBvKSQI:F7zBnMyn0Lo"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?i=8fDwSelENvA:A5xDnBvKSQI:F7zBnMyn0Lo" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=8fDwSelENvA:A5xDnBvKSQI:wd9GD17jvC4"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?d=wd9GD17jvC4" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=8fDwSelENvA:A5xDnBvKSQI:l6gmwiTKsz0"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?d=l6gmwiTKsz0" border="0"/img/a
/divimg src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/taipan/~4/8fDwSelENvA" height="1" width="1"/]]></description>
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		<title>Biblical Plagues, Government Mischief and 194 Percent Gains</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/current-market-news/biblical-plagues-government-mischief-and-194-percent-gains/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/current-market-news/biblical-plagues-government-mischief-and-194-percent-gains/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 03 Sep 2009 05:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Adam Lass</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Current Market News]]></category>
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		<description><![CDATA[Google would never tell the Health Troops that you  were sick. That would be wrong!

As long as Irsquo;m getting all biblical on you folks, I suppose I ought to update you on the latest on our...div class="feedflare"
a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=YcaPlJn1UYE:NP9g6Ye4JQA:yIl2AUoC8zA"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?d=yIl2AUoC8zA" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=YcaPlJn1UYE:NP9g6Ye4JQA:V_sGLiPBpWU"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?i=YcaPlJn1UYE:NP9g6Ye4JQA:V_sGLiPBpWU" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=YcaPlJn1UYE:NP9g6Ye4JQA:F7zBnMyn0Lo"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?i=YcaPlJn1UYE:NP9g6Ye4JQA:F7zBnMyn0Lo" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=YcaPlJn1UYE:NP9g6Ye4JQA:wd9GD17jvC4"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?d=wd9GD17jvC4" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=YcaPlJn1UYE:NP9g6Ye4JQA:l6gmwiTKsz0"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?d=l6gmwiTKsz0" border="0"/img/a
/divimg src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/taipan/~4/YcaPlJn1UYE" height="1" width="1"/]]></description>
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		<title>American Intl Group (NYSE:AIG): Ugh!</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/market-commentary/american-intl-group-nyseaig-ugh/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/market-commentary/american-intl-group-nyseaig-ugh/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 02 Sep 2009 16:13:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Notable Calls</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Market Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[American Intl Group]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Canon PowerShot S400 / IXUS 400 Digital Camera;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[http]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Samsung 400PX 40 in. HDTV-Ready LCD TV;]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29297569.post-5674114433895239114</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_YzBo7Kz5y1M/Sp6ZsLn6SZI/AAAAAAAAAKQ/ZPSzJDWecms/s1600-h/wkd2.JPG"img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 296px; height: 400px;" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_YzBo7Kz5y1M/Sp6ZsLn6SZI/AAAAAAAAAKQ/ZPSzJDWecms/s400/wkd2.JPG" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5376903989440432530" border="0" //abr /span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(255, 0, 0);"Notablecalls:/span Wet Kitties...they are everywhere! ARGHHHH!div class="blogger-post-footer"img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/29297569-5674114433895239114?l=notablecalls.blogspot.com'//div]]></description>
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		<title>Catching Up With the Carnage – AIG, Banks and the Fed</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/current-market-news/catching-up-with-the-carnage-%e2%80%93-aig-banks-and-the-fed/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/current-market-news/catching-up-with-the-carnage-%e2%80%93-aig-banks-and-the-fed/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 01 Sep 2009 05:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Justice Litle Editorial Director Taipan Publishing Group</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Current Market News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bank Failures]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Federal Reserve System]]></category>
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		<description><![CDATA[Why September is great for gold stocks, the drunken  gamblers buying AIG, more bank failures than expected, some choice reader  opinions on the Fed, and more.

Sounds like to me I  can hear this...div class="feedflare"
a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=7xeMOf5kSCQ:6yxmY4fd1j0:yIl2AUoC8zA"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?d=yIl2AUoC8zA" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=7xeMOf5kSCQ:6yxmY4fd1j0:V_sGLiPBpWU"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?i=7xeMOf5kSCQ:6yxmY4fd1j0:V_sGLiPBpWU" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=7xeMOf5kSCQ:6yxmY4fd1j0:F7zBnMyn0Lo"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?i=7xeMOf5kSCQ:6yxmY4fd1j0:F7zBnMyn0Lo" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=7xeMOf5kSCQ:6yxmY4fd1j0:wd9GD17jvC4"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?d=wd9GD17jvC4" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=7xeMOf5kSCQ:6yxmY4fd1j0:l6gmwiTKsz0"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?d=l6gmwiTKsz0" border="0"/img/a
/divimg src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/taipan/~4/7xeMOf5kSCQ" height="1" width="1"/]]></description>
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		<title>When will China matter?</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/market-commentary/when-will-china-matter/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/market-commentary/when-will-china-matter/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 31 Aug 2009 17:11:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Notable Calls</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Market Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Canon PowerShot S400 / IXUS 400 Digital Camera;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[China]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[GIF]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Samsung 400PX 40 in. HDTV-Ready LCD TV;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[shanghai]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_YzBo7Kz5y1M/SpwEVQzFNvI/AAAAAAAAAJg/_u_nvvoKIn8/s1600-h/SP_Shanghai.gif"img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 219px;" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_YzBo7Kz5y1M/SpwEVQzFNvI/AAAAAAAAAJg/_u_nvvoKIn8/s400/SP_Shanghai.gif" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5376176818506512114" border="0" //abr /span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);"Notablecalls:/span Kudos to good people of Aviandiv class="blogger-post-footer"img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/29297569-5566452808218942842?l=notablecalls.blogspot.com'//div]]></description>
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		<title>It&#8217;s Not Right&#8230; But It Does Make Sense</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/market-commentary/its-not-right-but-it-does-make-sense/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/market-commentary/its-not-right-but-it-does-make-sense/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 27 Aug 2009 05:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Adam Lass</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Market Commentary]]></category>
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		<description><![CDATA[The market may be wrong, but you can still make 691%  gains off it.

Irsquo;ve been out of town again, but this time around, it was  pure unadulterated pleasure. I took the wife and kids so far up...div class="feedflare"
a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=qgx6igvFPJY:Jba9NLNts9U:yIl2AUoC8zA"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?d=yIl2AUoC8zA" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=qgx6igvFPJY:Jba9NLNts9U:V_sGLiPBpWU"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?i=qgx6igvFPJY:Jba9NLNts9U:V_sGLiPBpWU" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=qgx6igvFPJY:Jba9NLNts9U:F7zBnMyn0Lo"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?i=qgx6igvFPJY:Jba9NLNts9U:F7zBnMyn0Lo" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=qgx6igvFPJY:Jba9NLNts9U:wd9GD17jvC4"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?d=wd9GD17jvC4" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=qgx6igvFPJY:Jba9NLNts9U:l6gmwiTKsz0"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?d=l6gmwiTKsz0" border="0"/img/a
/divimg src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/taipan/~4/qgx6igvFPJY" height="1" width="1"/]]></description>
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		<title>I&#8217;m Still Bullish on Frontier Markets</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-in-energy-markets/im-still-bullish-on-frontier-markets/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-in-energy-markets/im-still-bullish-on-frontier-markets/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 24 Aug 2009 13:30:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Michael E. Brisky</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Emerging Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Energy Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Frontier Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Market Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Africa]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bank]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Dubai]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dubai Islamic Bank]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[finance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[First Gulf Bank]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[FULL]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Goldman Sachs Group Inc]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Middle East]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Oil Prices]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Turkey]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[UAE]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[United Arab Emirates]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[William A. Mejia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=UNB%3AUH]]></category>
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		<description><![CDATA[I want to preface this by saying I'm not as bullish on "frontier markets" as I am on "emerging markets". (I define frontier markets as Africa, the Middle East, Eastern Europe; I define emerging markets as the BRIC countries, and a few others).  But while the frontier markets were marked down especially hard in 2008, I'm still bullish on their outlook.  Many are resource rich, and with political stability, their economies will grow.  Keep in mind also that I have a very long time horizon until retirement, and can afford to be patient with investments like these.  I do own T Rowe Price's African and Middle East Fund (a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=tramx"TRAMX/a).  A recent development for them (within the past year) is that they were allowed to buy shares in Saudi Arabia, which is one of the most attractive countries to invest in in that region.  Although for the time being these countries mostly follow oil prices and the subsequent boom of the economy in areas like Dubai, I feel over time we'll continue to see more diversification, which will attract more investors.br /br /I saw this note out from Goldman Sachs regarding UAE banks today (a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087amp;sid=az46SDUmvS5A"via Bloomberg/a):br /br /blockquotepUnited Arab Emirates’ banks may rise an average of 30 percent in a year as earnings “remain attractive” and valuations catch up with the emerging markets average, a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GS%3AUS" t_above="true" t_static="true" t_fontcolor="#000000" t_fontface="Verdana,sans-serif" t_bgcolor="#ddedd9" t_width="110" t_delay="50"Goldman Sachs Group Inc./a said.br /br /Valuations of six out of the top seven U.A.E. banks that Goldman Sachs covers are likely to improve to 1.2 times their estimated 2010 book value from about 1 as they catch up with the peer average in Turkey, Russia and South Africa, Goldman Sachs’ analysts led by a href="http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=William+A.+Mejiaamp;site=wnewsamp;client=wnewsamp;proxystylesheet=wnewsamp;output=xml_no_dtdamp;ie=UTF-8amp;oe=UTF-8amp;filter=pamp;getfields=wnnisamp;sort=date:D:S:d1" t_above="true" t_static="true" t_fontcolor="#000000" t_fontface="Verdana,sans-serif" t_bgcolor="#ddedd9" t_width="110" t_delay="50"William A. Mejia/a said in an August 21 report e- mailed today.br /br /Shares of the banks, which include a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=ADCB%3AUH" t_above="true" t_static="true" t_fontcolor="#000000" t_fontface="Verdana,sans-serif" t_bgcolor="#ddedd9" t_width="110" t_delay="50"Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank PJSC/a, a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=FGB%3AUH" t_above="true" t_static="true" t_fontcolor="#000000" t_fontface="Verdana,sans-serif" t_bgcolor="#ddedd9" t_width="110" t_delay="50"First Gulf Bank PJSC/a, a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=DIB%3AUH" t_above="true" t_static="true" t_fontcolor="#000000" t_fontface="Verdana,sans-serif" t_bgcolor="#ddedd9" t_width="110" t_delay="50"Dubai Islamic Bank PJSC/a and a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=UNB%3AUH" t_above="true" t_static="true" t_fontcolor="#000000" t_fontface="Verdana,sans-serif" t_bgcolor="#ddedd9" t_width="110" t_delay="50"Union National Bank PJSC/a, have already risen by 55 percent this year, although they are still about 50 percent lower than they were a year ago, the report said. a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=EMIRATES%3AUH" t_above="true" t_static="true" t_fontcolor="#000000" t_fontface="Verdana,sans-serif" t_bgcolor="#ddedd9" t_width="110" t_delay="50"Emirates NBD PJSC/a, the nation’s largest bank by assets, and second-ranked a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=NBAD%3AUH" t_above="true" t_static="true" t_fontcolor="#000000" t_fontface="Verdana,sans-serif" t_bgcolor="#ddedd9" t_width="110" t_delay="50"National Bank of Abu Dhabi PJSC/a, will face higher non-performing loans this year and a “more challenging” funding environment that will hurt growth, the report said. Although borrowing costs will stay high and slower loan growth will hurt revenue, banks’ “profitability levels in general will remain attractive,” the analysts said.br /br /“There is little to suggest U.A.E. banks should trade at a significant discount to global peers,” the report said.br /br /Goldman Sachs raised its rating on Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank and Dubai Islamic Bank to “neutral” from “sell” and cut National Bank of Abu Dhabi to “sell” from “neutral.” It reduced its rating on First Gulf Bank to “neutral” from a “buy.”br //pp /p/blockquotediv class="blogger-post-footer"img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/819581243324579563-3154839122610596836?l=briskycapital.blogspot.com'//div]]></description>
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		<title>Plate-Glass Europe Could Crack and Shatter</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/market-commentary/plate-glass-europe-could-crack-and-shatter/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/market-commentary/plate-glass-europe-could-crack-and-shatter/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 24 Aug 2009 05:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Justice Litle Editorial Director Taipan Publishing Group</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Market Commentary]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">tag:feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com://744f9fc2c96c5a73ff97c797b9274ef3</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Will the euro survive? Itrsquo;s not an  idle question. As an experimental ldquo;Frankenstein currency,rdquo; there is ample  reason to believe the eurorsquo;s greatest test is still  ahead...div class="feedflare"
a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=sC31KfLojmM:wPd2nXkeUJM:yIl2AUoC8zA"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?d=yIl2AUoC8zA" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=sC31KfLojmM:wPd2nXkeUJM:V_sGLiPBpWU"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?i=sC31KfLojmM:wPd2nXkeUJM:V_sGLiPBpWU" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=sC31KfLojmM:wPd2nXkeUJM:F7zBnMyn0Lo"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?i=sC31KfLojmM:wPd2nXkeUJM:F7zBnMyn0Lo" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=sC31KfLojmM:wPd2nXkeUJM:wd9GD17jvC4"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?d=wd9GD17jvC4" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=sC31KfLojmM:wPd2nXkeUJM:l6gmwiTKsz0"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?d=l6gmwiTKsz0" border="0"/img/a
/divimg src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/taipan/~4/sC31KfLojmM" height="1" width="1"/]]></description>
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		<item>
		<title>Energy Front: New Battery Technology</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/gold-markets/energy-front-new-battery-technology/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/gold-markets/energy-front-new-battery-technology/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 18 Aug 2009 22:09:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Alex Stanczyk</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Gold Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Market Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Alex Stanczyk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[energy landscape]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[http]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[oil production capacity;]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.rapidtrends.com/?p=1991</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[One of the biggest things to impact not only our finances but every other aspect of our lifestyles is the upcoming changes in the energy landscape.
The IEA reports that we are losing oil production capacity at a rate of 6% to 8% a year and will continue to do so unless the equivalent of six [...]div class="feedflare"
a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=aDTLfXd4foU:2xUTxkAkJnU:yIl2AUoC8zA"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?d=yIl2AUoC8zA" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=aDTLfXd4foU:2xUTxkAkJnU:F7zBnMyn0Lo"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?i=aDTLfXd4foU:2xUTxkAkJnU:F7zBnMyn0Lo" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=aDTLfXd4foU:2xUTxkAkJnU:7Q72WNTAKBA"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?d=7Q72WNTAKBA" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=aDTLfXd4foU:2xUTxkAkJnU:V_sGLiPBpWU"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?i=aDTLfXd4foU:2xUTxkAkJnU:V_sGLiPBpWU" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=aDTLfXd4foU:2xUTxkAkJnU:qj6IDK7rITs"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?d=qj6IDK7rITs" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=aDTLfXd4foU:2xUTxkAkJnU:l6gmwiTKsz0"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?d=l6gmwiTKsz0" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=aDTLfXd4foU:2xUTxkAkJnU:gIN9vFwOqvQ"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?i=aDTLfXd4foU:2xUTxkAkJnU:gIN9vFwOqvQ" border="0"/img/a
/div]]></description>
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		<title>Fastest Growing Companies &#8211; Tomorrow on CNBC</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/market-commentary/fastest-growing-companies-tomorrow-on-cnbc/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/market-commentary/fastest-growing-companies-tomorrow-on-cnbc/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 18 Aug 2009 16:04:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Notable Calls</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Market Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Andy Serwer]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Canon PowerShot S400 / IXUS 400 Digital Camera;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[CNBC Managing Editor]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Fortune Magazine Managing Editor]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[http]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tyler Mathisen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[www.youtube.com/watch?v=4sYFie1Lcjobr]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29297569.post-3158334997193123943</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[div style="text-align: justify;"br /a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_YzBo7Kz5y1M/SorRT2I1F-I/AAAAAAAAAIY/b-g8m81ckQc/s1600-h/FGC_300x250_PRE.jpg"img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 300px; height: 250px;" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_YzBo7Kz5y1M/SorRT2I1F-I/AAAAAAAAAIY/b-g8m81ckQc/s400/FGC_300x250_PRE.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5371335644473006050" border="0" //abr /Tomorrow, CNBC and Fortune present “Fastest Growing Companies of 2009”, a one-hour primetime special profiling the fastest growing companies around the globe. Viewers will see the sectors of the economy that are still booming... and go inside the hot companies that are taking full advantage of their position by posting sizzling growth in a slow-growth world. CNBC Managing Editor, Tyler Mathisen and Fortune Magazine Managing Editor, Andy Serwer will co-host the special.br /br /For a peek at the 100 fastest growing companies, visit http://fastgrowingcompanies.cnbc.combr /br /span style="font-weight: bold;"Program highlights:/span  http://www.cnbc.com/id/32219393br /br /span style="font-weight: bold;"Sneak Preview:/span http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4sYFie1Lcjobr /br /span style="font-weight: bold;"Slideshow:/span http://www.cnbc.com/id/32271335/br /br /br /span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);"Notablecalls: /spanThe good people of CNBC asked me to give you a heads up on this coming show. So here it is. Make sure you watch it!br /br /span style="font-weight: bold;"PS/span: It's RIMM!br //divdiv class="blogger-post-footer"img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/29297569-3158334997193123943?l=notablecalls.blogspot.com'//div]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
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		<item>
		<title>The USD…Laced with Cocaine</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/gold-markets/the-usd%e2%80%a6laced-with-cocaine/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/gold-markets/the-usd%e2%80%a6laced-with-cocaine/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 17 Aug 2009 15:23:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Alex Stanczyk</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Gold Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Market Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Alex Stanczyk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[http]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Josh Peak]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[United States]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.rapidtrends.com/?p=1980</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Kind of humorous to think that there is more intrinsic value in traces of drugs on greenbacks than there is in the paper.
Hat tip to my good friend Josh Peak.
Most U.S. Money Laced With Cocaine
LiveScience Staff
Traces of cocaine taint up to 90 percent of paper money in the United States, a new study finds.
A group [...]div class="feedflare"
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/div]]></description>
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		<item>
		<title>Lessons From Lions</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/market-commentary/lessons-from-lions/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/market-commentary/lessons-from-lions/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 17 Aug 2009 13:17:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Taipan Publishing Group</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Market Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Africa]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[http]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Lions Editorial Director]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">tag:feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com://ab517dd95844f797b6b1e0e3b8fcd796</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Editorial Director’s Note: Jim’s got a thing for Africa, and for lions above all. You won’t want to miss his exciting wrap-up of the myriad goings-on at the 2009 Taipan Global Opportunities Summit —...div class="feedflare"
a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=RuID_VTCNBc:8ouPiTLmPtw:yIl2AUoC8zA"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?d=yIl2AUoC8zA" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=RuID_VTCNBc:8ouPiTLmPtw:V_sGLiPBpWU"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?i=RuID_VTCNBc:8ouPiTLmPtw:V_sGLiPBpWU" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=RuID_VTCNBc:8ouPiTLmPtw:F7zBnMyn0Lo"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?i=RuID_VTCNBc:8ouPiTLmPtw:F7zBnMyn0Lo" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=RuID_VTCNBc:8ouPiTLmPtw:wd9GD17jvC4"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?d=wd9GD17jvC4" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=RuID_VTCNBc:8ouPiTLmPtw:l6gmwiTKsz0"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?d=l6gmwiTKsz0" border="0"/img/a
/divimg src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/taipan/~4/RuID_VTCNBc" height="1" width="1"/]]></description>
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		<item>
		<title>Martin Armstrong: Cycles</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/gold-markets/martin-armstrong-cycles/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/gold-markets/martin-armstrong-cycles/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 16 Aug 2009 15:36:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Alex Stanczyk</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Gold Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Market Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Alex Stanczyk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[energy waves]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[http]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Martin Armstrong;]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.rapidtrends.com/?p=1976</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Martin Armstrong discusses energy waves, Physics, and Cyclical versus Pattern analysis.
Funny thing is, I know how few will take the time to read all of Armstrongs paper. This is the same reason so few  profit from major changes when they come.
Cycles#38;PatternProjections809 



Like what you see? Share with a frienddiv class="feedflare"
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/div]]></description>
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		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Spiritual Sizzle for Me — Profitable Steak for You</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/market-commentary/spiritual-sizzle-for-me-%e2%80%94-profitable-steak-for-you/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/market-commentary/spiritual-sizzle-for-me-%e2%80%94-profitable-steak-for-you/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 14 Aug 2009 15:30:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Taipan Publishing Group</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Market Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chi-town]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[editor]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Editorial Director]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[http]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jim Amrhein;]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">tag:feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com://358a66252f64bcc0a6c22f91c78f5f5f</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Editorial Director's Note: Contributing Editor Jim Amrhein’s encounter with a divine chunk of Chi-town bovine pays big dividends to you — now he’s fully fueled and raring (forgive the pun) to cover...div class="feedflare"
a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=EMi7S9s5DrI:Yuz_rPCoMpA:yIl2AUoC8zA"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?d=yIl2AUoC8zA" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=EMi7S9s5DrI:Yuz_rPCoMpA:V_sGLiPBpWU"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?i=EMi7S9s5DrI:Yuz_rPCoMpA:V_sGLiPBpWU" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=EMi7S9s5DrI:Yuz_rPCoMpA:F7zBnMyn0Lo"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?i=EMi7S9s5DrI:Yuz_rPCoMpA:F7zBnMyn0Lo" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=EMi7S9s5DrI:Yuz_rPCoMpA:wd9GD17jvC4"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?d=wd9GD17jvC4" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=EMi7S9s5DrI:Yuz_rPCoMpA:l6gmwiTKsz0"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?d=l6gmwiTKsz0" border="0"/img/a
/divimg src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/taipan/~4/EMi7S9s5DrI" height="1" width="1"/]]></description>
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		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Jim Sinclairs Countdown – Dollar Dead Pool Comes</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/gold-markets/jim-sinclairs-countdown-%e2%80%93-dollar-dead-pool-comes/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/gold-markets/jim-sinclairs-countdown-%e2%80%93-dollar-dead-pool-comes/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 14 Aug 2009 14:04:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Alex Stanczyk</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Gold Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Market Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Alex Stanczyk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[China]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[http]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[jim sinclair]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jim Sinclairs Countdown]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.rapidtrends.com/?p=1961</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Jim Sinclair has a great insight into whats happening fundamentally behind the scenes.
His analysis of the China US equation holds water with me, as it is backed up by common sense and thousands of pieces of information I have seen come across my desk over the last few years.
China cannot, and does not want more [...]div class="feedflare"
a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=PXRUXvS22Fk:lD7bP06eetI:yIl2AUoC8zA"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?d=yIl2AUoC8zA" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=PXRUXvS22Fk:lD7bP06eetI:F7zBnMyn0Lo"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?i=PXRUXvS22Fk:lD7bP06eetI:F7zBnMyn0Lo" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=PXRUXvS22Fk:lD7bP06eetI:7Q72WNTAKBA"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?d=7Q72WNTAKBA" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=PXRUXvS22Fk:lD7bP06eetI:V_sGLiPBpWU"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?i=PXRUXvS22Fk:lD7bP06eetI:V_sGLiPBpWU" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=PXRUXvS22Fk:lD7bP06eetI:qj6IDK7rITs"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?d=qj6IDK7rITs" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=PXRUXvS22Fk:lD7bP06eetI:l6gmwiTKsz0"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?d=l6gmwiTKsz0" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=PXRUXvS22Fk:lD7bP06eetI:gIN9vFwOqvQ"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?i=PXRUXvS22Fk:lD7bP06eetI:gIN9vFwOqvQ" border="0"/img/a
/div]]></description>
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		<title>A Scandal that dwarfs Madoff? Markopolos seems to think so…</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/gold-markets/a-scandal-that-dwarfs-madoff-markopolos-seems-to-think-so%e2%80%a6/</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 13 Aug 2009 10:41:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Alex Stanczyk</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Gold Markets]]></category>
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		<description><![CDATA[If this turns out to be true#8230;this should be interesting to watch unfold.
More importantly, what are the ramifications for the markets, and your wealth?
Got safe yet? Got gold yet?
August 12, 2009 #8211;
HARRY Markopolos #8212; the whistleblower on Bernie Madoff who proved to be much smarter than the SEC #8212; says there are evildoers out there [...]div class="feedflare"
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/div]]></description>
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		<title>Majority of Fund Managers Looking At Gold</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/gold-markets/majority-of-fund-managers-looking-at-gold/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/gold-markets/majority-of-fund-managers-looking-at-gold/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 11 Aug 2009 16:24:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Alex Stanczyk</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Gold Markets]]></category>
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		<description><![CDATA[Again, this is right in line with all secular bull markets.
First investors are the contrarian sophisticated investors. We have clients who were selling tech and buying gold and silver in 1995.
Next comes the institutional players. The price action from this causes the final wave.
Mom and pops pile in last, usually ending in a blow-off top, [...]div class="feedflare"
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/div]]></description>
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		<title>Did Britain Just Trigger a Currency Avalanche?</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/market-commentary/did-britain-just-trigger-a-currency-avalanche/</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 11 Aug 2009 05:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Justice Litle Editorial Director Taipan Publishing Group</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Market Commentary]]></category>
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		<description><![CDATA[Last week the Bank of England shocked investors with a  surprise “Quantitative Easing” move... a move that threatens to set off a  currency avalanche.

If corporations were people, a good many of...div class="feedflare"
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/divimg src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/taipan/~4/bfss6bFJVkI" height="1" width="1"/]]></description>
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		<title>&#8220;Advances in Development Reverse Fertility Declines&#8221; &#8211; Science or Hocus Pocus?</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/market-commentary/advances-in-development-reverse-fertility-declines-science-or-hocus-pocus/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/market-commentary/advances-in-development-reverse-fertility-declines-science-or-hocus-pocus/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 09 Aug 2009 08:28:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Edward Hugh</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8991369883287712098.post-4815330640925891745</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[by Edward Hugh: : L'Escala de Empordàbr /br /According to a once-upon-a-time post on the Economist's a href="http://www.economist.com/blogs/certainideasofeurope/2007/07/a_fistful_of_reply.cfm#list-comments"Certain Ideas of Europe Blog/a Edward Hugh “was very cross” about some of the journalism they were serving up over at that prestigious journal. Well, not to worry, since this time he is hopping mad. And the issue which lies behind his wrath is essentially the same one, how to interpret and understand the demographic processes which are currently so evidently affecting our societies. In what is simply the latest episode in a long and sorry saga (if you want documentation, please see the comments Claus Vistesen and I nailed to their "Wall" in the above linked post) this week's print issue contains a href="http://www.economist.com/sciencetechnology/displaystory.cfm?story_id=14164483"a research review from their science and technology correspondent/a who is evidently not backward in coming forward with headline grabbing claims. According to the said corresponedent the demographic transition (a process which has been ongoing for over two hundred years now) has finally and definitively gone into reverse gear:br /blockquote"One of the paradoxes of human biology is that the rich world has fewer children than the poor world. In most species, improved circumstances are expected to increase reproductive effort, not reduce it, yet as economic development gets going, country after country has experienced what is known as the demographic transition: fertility (defined as the number of children borne by a woman over her lifetime) drops from around eight to near one and a half. That number is so small that even with the reduced child mortality which usually accompanies development it cannot possibly sustain the population.br /br /If Mikko Myrskyla of the University of Pennsylvania and his colleagues are correct, though, things might not be quite as bad as that. A study they have just published in Nature suggests that as development continues, the demographic transition goes into reverse."/blockquotebr /br /Well quite a strong claim is being made here. The idea that a group of researchers have come up with a finding that shows the "rule....that people have fewer children as their countries get richer...no longer holds true" is certainly not one to be sniffed at. Such a strong claim needs some very heavy backing you would think, given all the research that has gone into the topic in recent years.br /br /In fact, the research makes no such direct claim, since Myrskylä et al simply find statistically significant evidence for a reversal in the relationship between the human development index (HDI)br /and the total fertility rate (Tfr) at HDI levels around 0.85–0.9. The rest is only interpretation. As we will see, to move from a simple statististical correlation to formulating a hypothesis you need an explanatory framework, and you need to be able to make falsifiable predictions. The Nature letter from Myrskylä et al is far from being at this stage of development. They have simply found an interesting correlation, and the rest is in the eye of the observer.br /br /blockquote"Back in 1975, a graph plotting fertility rate against the Human Development Index fell as the Human Development Index rose. By 2005, though, the line had a kink in it. Above an HDI of 0.9 or so, it turned up, producing what is known in the jargon as a “J-shaped” curve (even though it is the mirror image of a letter J). As the chart shows, in many countries with really high levels of development (around 0.95) fertility rates are now approaching two children per woman. There are exceptions, notably Canada and Japan, but the trend is clear."/blockquotebr /br /However, according to the Economist the trend is clear. But is it? Edward has been doing some digging.br /br /In fact the problem goes beyond the Economist, since the source behind the article is a letter published in Nature. Below a href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v460/n7256/full/nature08230.html"you can read that letter/a.br /br /blockquote"During the twentieth century, the global population has gone through unprecedented increases in economic and social development that coincided with substantial declines in human fertility and population growth rates. The negative association of fertility with economic and social development has therefore become one of the most solidly established and generally accepted empirical regularities in the social sciences. As a result of this close connection between development and fertility decline, more than half of the global population now lives in regions with below-replacement fertility (less than 2.1 children per woman. In many highly developed countries, the trend towards low fertility has also been deemed irreversible. Rapid population ageing, and in some cases the prospect of significant population decline, have therefore become a central socioeconomic concern and policy challenge10. Here we show, using new cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses of the total fertility rate and the human development index (HDI), a fundamental change in the well-established negative relationship between fertility and development as the global population entered the twenty-first century. Although development continues to promote fertility decline at low and medium HDI levels, our analyses show that at advanced HDI levels, further development can reverse the declining trend in fertility. The previously negative development–fertility relationship has become J-shaped, with the HDI being positively associated with fertility among highly developed countries. This reversal of fertility decline as a result of continued economic and social development has the potential to slow the rates of population ageing, thereby ameliorating the social and economic problems that have been associated with the emergence and persistence of very low fertility."/blockquotebr /br /br /Here is the chart (reproduce from Nature data) which the Economist presents to illustrate the 'J curve' relationship.br /br /a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/Sn1c5QH2KJI/AAAAAAAAOw8/9EElMH7Rg3w/s1600-h/Nature+Chart.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 252px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 277px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5367548469545674898" border="0" alt="" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/Sn1c5QH2KJI/AAAAAAAAOw8/9EElMH7Rg3w/s400/Nature+Chart.png" //abr /br /Nice, isn't it? Nature even go to the lengths of a putting up a special "event" podcast featuring an interview with Hans Peter Kohler (a href="http://www.nature.com/nature/podcast/"click here for link/a) as if to underline the importance of the "finding") But does any of this have any compelling validity?br /br /Methinks not as much as the authors of the letter, or those who are covering it in the media, are trying to make out. There are many issues which are raised here, but I would just like to mention three.br /br /The first is the decision of the research team to work with a period based fertility measure which is known to be very unreliable for "tempo" reasons (the Total Fertility Rate- Tfr) as the basis for a longitudinal study. And let us remember, the authors only really claim to have found a correlation between HDI levels in the 0.85–0.9 range and movements in the Tfr, and there could be many explanations for this. Indeed the authors themselves even offer one of them in their supplementary information - "countries at development levels near the critical level HDI = 0.86 might have a more rapid postponement of childbearing than more advanced countries.. " - a possibility which, in fairness to the authors, they try to test for.br /br /And you don't have to rely on me for the suggestion that the Tfr is hardly the most desireable measure for what they want to do, since the authors themselves point this very fact out in the supplementary information (and the only thing which surprises me is that nobody else who has reviewed the research seems to have twigged the implications of this). So the very title of the Letter is totally misleading, they have not found that "Advances in Development Reverse Fertility Declines" -since in the first place the direction of causality is not adequately determined (it might be that reverses in fertility decline advance development, as I try to show in a piece referenced below) and in any event the research only shows movements in the HDI correlate with movements in the Tfr (and not with "fertility").br /br /blockquoteThe recent literature on low fertility in developed countries has pointed to the important role of delayed childbearing, that is, the ongoing postponement of childbearing to increasingly later ages. In the context of this paper, delayed childbearing is potentially important because the postponement of childbearing can distort the total fertility rate as a measure of the quantum (or long-term level) of fertility. “Tempo effects”, or the reductions in the total fertility rate resulting from a postponement of childbearing, have been shown to partially explain the very low fertility rates observed in some European countries./blockquotebr /br /So this is the first issue. Due to the phenomenon of birth postponement, the Tfr is a hopelessly unreliable indicator, and what is often called "the birth recovery" is in fact a statistical issue produced by the fact that the Tfr first sinks to very low levels (the birth dearth) and then recovers as women reach the new (higher) childbearing age. Since all of this is simply so obvious, I am absolutely astounded that two such well known and highly respected demographers - Hans-Peter Kohler and Francesco Billari - have placed their name on a piece of research that could almost be described as a publicity stunt. I am even more astounded by the way Nature appear to have been hoodwinked.br /br /Basically, I don't think that there can be any doubt that if they used a more comprehensive measure of fertility - say completed cohort fertility - they wouldn't get the correlation they claim to have found, since CFRs never fell so low, and have not bounced back in the same way. This is essentially because this indicator removes the temporal component found in the TFR (older first birth ages among women in developed societies) and only focuses on quantity. True, they did carry out a robustness test using an adjusted Tfr, but the results are much weaker, and the sample far from satisfactory (at least for the claims being made), and the authors well know this (see below).br /br /In their longitudinal study the authors look at Tfrs for a number of countries over the period 1975 to 2005 and compare these to the lowest Tfr reading observed while a country's HDI was within the 0.85–0.9 window. For all countries considered, the HDI in 2005 was found to be higher than the HDI in the reference year. For 18 of the 26 countries that attained a HDI 0.9 by 2005, the Tfr in 2005 was found to be higher than the TFR in the reference year. As I say, this is hardly surprising, given the tempo impact on Tfrs. The "2005 18" are Norway, the Netherlands, the United States, Denmark, Germany, Spain, Belgium, Luxembourg, Finland, Israel, Italy, Sweden, France, Iceland, the United Kingdom, New Zealand, Greece and Ireland.br /br /Perhaps it is more surprising (and interesting) to learn that they found six countries where the HDI was over 0.9 but where the Tfrs didn't pick up: Japan, Austria, Australia, Switzerland, Canada and South Korea. Clearly the absence of "rebound" in even the Tfrs is something of a cause for preoccupation in these countries, and examining the background to what is happening in these countries could at the end of the day turn this research into something quite interesting. That is to say, if for their level of development we might have expected the tempo effect to be more or less over, why do some countries continue to have very low fertility levels?br /br /Basically, to shoot a hole straight through their hypothesis (falsify it that is, surely in science things should be falsifiable), I would say it is only necessary to find a significant number of countries in the first group where fertility as measured by a better indicator didn't rise. Unfortunately we don't have a really good time series for such an indicator, but Eurostat have published statistical estimates for Completed Cohort Fertility Rates (Cfrs) for EU countries up to the 1989 cohort. That is, estimates of what fertility is likely to be for women who were 30 in 2009. Looking at this data, the following countries would appear to offer no evidence whatever for a rebound in cohort fertility in what we know to dat: Norway, Netherlands, Denmark, Germany, Italy, Finland, Sweden, France, Iceland, the UK, Greece and Ireland. That is to say, as far as I am concerned, the whole hypothesis falls till at least subsequent data confirm it.br /br /I haven't been able to check foir the US (but the Cfr is probably up) Israel (also) or New Zealand. Belgium has little available data. So the only two European countries which you could say with some degree of security actually could confirm the hypothesis would be Luxembourg and Spain - but if you just look at the increases in Spain - from 1.34 to 1.35 - and think about the fact that 5 million new migrants arrived (mainly in childbearing ages) between 2000 and 2009, then the result is hardly dramatic, and if you look what just happened to the economy, it is more than likely that GDP per capita is plummeting, and and household income (which has a weighting of more than one third in the HDI) with it. Which brings me to the second question, the reference year. But before I move on to that, as I say above, the authors are perfectly well aware of the issue with using Tfrs.br /blockquoteIn particular, one could speculate that tempo effects might be—at least partially—responsible for the observed change in the development–fertility association. For example, countries at development levels near the critical level HDIcrit = 0.86 might have a more rapid postponement of childbearing than more advanced countries. If this were the case, tempo effects would reduce the TFR more strongly at intermediate than at advanced HDI levels, and the positive association between HDI and TFR in Figures 1–2 could be partially explained by differences in the pace of fertility postponement, rather than by variation in levels among advanced countries./blockquotebr /br /The authors therefore carry out a robustness test which effectively amounts to a cross-sectional study (cross-sectional note, not longitudinal) of the relationship between the total fertility rate with and without adjustment for tempo effects, and the human development index in 1975 and 2005. Tempo adjusted TFRs are not available over the period in question so they simply took data for 2005 (for those countries for which it is available from the ’European Demographic Data Sheet 2008’ (published by the Vienna Institute of Demography, Vienna, Austria) and from McDonald P, Kippen R. The Intrinsic Total Fertility Rate: A New Approach to the Measurement of Fertility (Population Association of America Annual Meeting 2007, New York, 2007). What they can then show is that the HDI–TFR relationship at persists at advanced development stages persists even after adjusting the total fertility rate for tempo effects. But, as I say, this is cross sectional, not longitudional. What does this jargon mean? It means there is no clear causal relationship, since equally it could be better HDIs which is driving better fertility, and hence you can use the HDI to explain differences between countries if you wish, but not the evolution of fertility in individual countries. The 2005 result is show as a black line in the chart below, where you can see that as HDI goes up, Tfr also seems to be higher.br /br /a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/Sn1xBKpJlQI/AAAAAAAAOxE/GnOAvjVfEW4/s1600-h/cross+section.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 371px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5367570595746256130" border="0" alt="" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/Sn1xBKpJlQI/AAAAAAAAOxE/GnOAvjVfEW4/s400/cross+section.png" //abr /br /Which is very much to the point, and brings me to my second issue, since in my blog post "Taking Solow Seriously - Does Neoclassical Steady State Growth Really Exist?" (a href="http://edwardhughtoo.blogspot.com/2009/06/taking-solow-seriously-does.html"which you can find here/a) - I demonstrate using a few simple charts that the evolution in GDP per capita (which accounts remember for one third of the HDI) may well be a function of underlying population dynamics, since three countries with stronger population growth and higher fertility (the US, the UK and France) evidently perform much better than three will low-to-negative population growth and very low fertility (Italy, Japan and Germany).br /br /Also, it should be remembered, as I mention, we need to think about base years. 2005 was the mid point of a massive and unsustainable asset and construction boom. I think there is little doubt that if we took 2010 or 2011, the results would be rather different.br /br /Finally, the piece in the Economist article that I personallyfind most interesting is the following:br /br /"Dr Myrskyla’s data, however, suggest the ultimate outcome of development may not be a collapsing population at all but, rather, the environmentalist’s nirvana of uncoerced zero population growth."br /br /I want to stress, I certainly think this stationary population idea is certainly one possibility in the more highly developed nations - but if we move to stationary populations, with higher and higher proportions of the population in the older age groups the result is - as we know - a rising median population age. It is the economic impact of the abrupt rise in median age that I personally am focused on, and how just this rise, and the resulting fall in living standards for many young people, might feedback in a negative way on fertility and thus produce ever more rising median ages. In recent days, some have been asking why people like myself are so focused on what is going on in Latvia, which is after all, a pretty small country. Well, I think here in the issues raised by the Nature letter we have just one more reason why that country is important, since in a sense it is conducting a "live" experiment.br /br /Finally, I want to say, none of the above should be read as suggesting that there isn't a great deal of interest and material to talk about in the study the authors have carried out. Nor would I hold them entirely responsible for the way in which others have used and abused their work. I just the reserach doesn't demonstrate what they want it to demonstrate, and that the study doesn't deserve the kind of high media profile it has been receiving, since it is going to mislead the general public more than it will enlighten them, given the important methodological issue which are still to be clarified.br /br /The heart of the problem is twofold. The excessive reliance on a rather problematic indicator (the Tfr) and the causality issue when it comes to GDP per capita and higher fertility (which way does the arrow point?). In fairness the authors do attempt to construct their own combined time series based on a mixture of tempo-adjusted Tfrs and Tfrs, a procedure which seems at the very least to be somewhat problematic if you want to reverse fifty years of academic consensus. And they do get the same sort of result, but the outcome is much weaker and is based on a much smaller sample of only 25 countries. But even this result is at the very least odd, since, as I argue above, cohort fertility hasn't really increased in most of thecountries concerned. So I think we really all need to see more details of how the authors actually constructed the time series to be able to form a better judgement.br /br /But all this being said, and whatever the original intentions of the authors, serious scientific debate does seem to have been turned here into something of a media circus. Wasn't it blogs that were supposed to do that?br /br /strongAppendix/strongbr /br /Below I offer a series of charts showing estimated completed cohort fertility rates based on data compiled by Eurostat using the distribution of births by parity (first and second or higher order births) and mean age of mothers at respective parities to carry out the calculations. Evidently, the most recent data for hard data on completed cohort fertility comes for the 1960 - 1965 cohort. These charts should not be treated as hard data, but a rule-of-thumb type quick visual inspection suggests that it is hard to accept the case for a substantial fertility rebound in many European countries.br /br /a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/Sn3PO8BEe7I/AAAAAAAAOx8/9eOvojQ9XYQ/s1600-h/Switzerland+and+Slovenia.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 203px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5367674186431232946" border="0" alt="" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/Sn3PO8BEe7I/AAAAAAAAOx8/9eOvojQ9XYQ/s400/Switzerland+and+Slovenia.png" //abr /br /a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/Sn3PJ0CFCQI/AAAAAAAAOx0/yu_FnUR5KkM/s1600-h/norway+and+denmark.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 203px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5367674098388633858" border="0" alt="" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/Sn3PJ0CFCQI/AAAAAAAAOx0/yu_FnUR5KkM/s400/norway+and+denmark.png" //abr /br /a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/Sn3PGVm-g8I/AAAAAAAAOxs/1jEqYkUYjqE/s1600-h/netherlands+and+Italy.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 201px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5367674038682289090" border="0" alt="" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/Sn3PGVm-g8I/AAAAAAAAOxs/1jEqYkUYjqE/s400/netherlands+and+Italy.png" //abr /br /a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/Sn3PCbmMTYI/AAAAAAAAOxk/6BPfKQPDsIc/s1600-h/luxembourg+and+spain.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 203px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5367673971570134402" border="0" alt="" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/Sn3PCbmMTYI/AAAAAAAAOxk/6BPfKQPDsIc/s400/luxembourg+and+spain.png" //abr /br /a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/Sn3O-cYGe_I/AAAAAAAAOxc/ktZadAXfAaU/s1600-h/ireland+and+Greece.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 204px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5367673903059991538" border="0" alt="" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/Sn3O-cYGe_I/AAAAAAAAOxc/ktZadAXfAaU/s400/ireland+and+Greece.png" //abr /br /a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/Sn3O6b_brlI/AAAAAAAAOxU/eGWratutFCw/s1600-h/Iceland+and+Sweden.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 201px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5367673834237046354" border="0" alt="" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/Sn3O6b_brlI/AAAAAAAAOxU/eGWratutFCw/s400/Iceland+and+Sweden.png" //abr /br /a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/Sn3O2NEgbvI/AAAAAAAAOxM/sfcSNnQpjQc/s1600-h/finland+and+germany.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 202px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5367673761512320754" border="0" alt="" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/Sn3O2NEgbvI/AAAAAAAAOxM/sfcSNnQpjQc/s400/finland+and+germany.png" //adiv class="blogger-post-footer"img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/8991369883287712098-4815330640925891745?l=globaleconomydoesmatter.blogspot.com'//div]]></description>
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		<title>Goldman Sach’s Compared to Gordon Gekko</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/gold-markets/goldman-sach%e2%80%99s-compared-to-gordon-gekko/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/gold-markets/goldman-sach%e2%80%99s-compared-to-gordon-gekko/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 07 Aug 2009 18:00:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Alex Stanczyk</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Gold Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Market Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Alex Stanczyk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Goldman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Goldman Sachs]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gordon Gekko]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gordon Gekko Lets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Greg Farrell]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[http]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Reputation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Us Government]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.rapidtrends.com/?p=1918</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Lets see, buy the US Government, pay your execs more than your firm earns in profits with taxpayer money, then repeatedly give the taxpayers the bird.
Gordon Gekko is being kind.
Goldman#8217;s damaged reputation leaves it with the #8216;Gekko#8217; look
By Greg Farrell in New York
Published: August 3 2009 03:00 #124; Last updated: August 3 2009 03:00
Goldman Sachs#8217; [...]div class="feedflare"
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/div]]></description>
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		<title>FDIC Says 500 More Banks Could Fail</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/gold-markets/fdic-says-500-more-banks-could-fail/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/gold-markets/fdic-says-500-more-banks-could-fail/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 07 Aug 2009 17:47:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Alex Stanczyk</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Gold Markets]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Jessica Holzer]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Sheila Bair]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Washington]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.rapidtrends.com/?p=1912</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[As you can see, more green shoots! Boy this stimulus sure is working.
US Sen Bunning: FDIC#8217;s Bair Said Up To 500 More Banks Could Fail
By Jessica Holzer, Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
WASHINGTON -(Dow Jones)- Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairman Sheila Bair believes up to 500 more banks could fail, a U.S. senator said Bair told him [...]div class="feedflare"
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		<title>The 75 Billion Dollar Needle in a Haystack</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/market-commentary/the-75-billion-dollar-needle-in-a-haystack/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/market-commentary/the-75-billion-dollar-needle-in-a-haystack/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 06 Aug 2009 05:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Adam Lass</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Market Commentary]]></category>
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		<description><![CDATA[Washington has buried the  one fact you need to know most.

Today I thought I might walk you through some of the inane  gyrations that investors put themselves through, as they try to discount a few ...div class="feedflare"
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/divimg src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/taipan/~4/sQpIb9hpzcA" height="1" width="1"/]]></description>
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		<title>Congressman Cliff Stearns evicerates former Sect. of Treasury Henry Paulson</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/gold-markets/congressman-cliff-stearns-evicerates-former-sect-of-treasury-henry-paulson/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/gold-markets/congressman-cliff-stearns-evicerates-former-sect-of-treasury-henry-paulson/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 05 Aug 2009 17:49:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Alex Stanczyk</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Gold Markets]]></category>
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		<description><![CDATA[Listen to audio of the interview here: King World News #8211; Stearns Rips Paulson Apart



Like what you see? Share with a frienddiv class="feedflare"
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/div]]></description>
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		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Chart: Inflation adjusted SP 500 earnings fall off a cliff</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/gold-markets/chart-inflation-adjusted-sp-500-earnings-fall-off-a-cliff/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/gold-markets/chart-inflation-adjusted-sp-500-earnings-fall-off-a-cliff/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 05 Aug 2009 16:31:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Alex Stanczyk</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Gold Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Market Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Alex Stanczyk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[http]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[main stream media;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Olympus SP-500 UZ Digital Camera;]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.rapidtrends.com/?p=1880</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[This is rather telling. Those green shoots are looking pretty green.
Do you even still watch the main stream media?



Like what you see? Share with a frienddiv class="feedflare"
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/div]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>The HC Monstrosity-All 1,018 Pages</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/gold-markets/the-hc-monstrosity-all-1018-pages/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/gold-markets/the-hc-monstrosity-all-1018-pages/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 04 Aug 2009 20:02:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Alex Stanczyk</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Gold Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Market Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Alex Stanczyk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Congress]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[http]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Pete Fleckstein]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.rapidtrends.com/?p=1874</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Shout out to Pete Fleckstein over at Common Sense from a Common Man. I really didnt want to read that thing to be honest.
The HC Monstrosity-All 1,018 Pages

Since Congress doesn’t want to read the Health Care Bill and Obama, ACORN, Unions, Lawyers, #38; Special Interest Groups don’t want you to know whats in this monstrosity, [...]div class="feedflare"
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/div]]></description>
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		<item>
		<title>Gold: Head and shoulders of $1300?</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/gold-markets/gold-head-and-shoulders-of-1300/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/gold-markets/gold-head-and-shoulders-of-1300/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 04 Aug 2009 16:01:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Alex Stanczyk</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Gold Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Market Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Alex Stanczyk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gold]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[head]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.rapidtrends.com/?p=1871</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Alex#8217;s Notes: I have noticed very strong buying in morning trading last few weeks #8211; abnormally so, at least for what usually happens between 9am and 12pm or so Eastern time.
Dont be caught flat footed!
Aug 3, 2009, 1:34 a.m. EST
Gold gearing up (again) to break $1,000?
Commentary: After Friday#8217;s rebound, gold bugs are watching for a [...]div class="feedflare"
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/div]]></description>
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		<title>The Ned Beatty  Prophecies (Part Two)</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/market-commentary/the-ned-beatty-prophecies-part-two/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/market-commentary/the-ned-beatty-prophecies-part-two/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 04 Aug 2009 05:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Taipan Publishing Group</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Market Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[http]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jim Amrhein;]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[Editorial Directorrsquo;s  Note: 

A few weeks ago, the  one and only Jim Amrhein stretched your brains with ldquo;The Ned  Beatty Prophecies,rdquo; a.k.a. ldquo;The History of Western Politics...div class="feedflare"
a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=Y_F5XaIYJ34:Z28SxtXc1wA:yIl2AUoC8zA"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?d=yIl2AUoC8zA" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=Y_F5XaIYJ34:Z28SxtXc1wA:V_sGLiPBpWU"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?i=Y_F5XaIYJ34:Z28SxtXc1wA:V_sGLiPBpWU" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=Y_F5XaIYJ34:Z28SxtXc1wA:F7zBnMyn0Lo"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?i=Y_F5XaIYJ34:Z28SxtXc1wA:F7zBnMyn0Lo" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=Y_F5XaIYJ34:Z28SxtXc1wA:wd9GD17jvC4"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?d=wd9GD17jvC4" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=Y_F5XaIYJ34:Z28SxtXc1wA:l6gmwiTKsz0"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?d=l6gmwiTKsz0" border="0"/img/a
/divimg src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/taipan/~4/Y_F5XaIYJ34" height="1" width="1"/]]></description>
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		<item>
		<title>American Eagle 1/10 Oz Gold Pricing</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/gold-markets/american-eagle-110-oz-gold-pricing/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/gold-markets/american-eagle-110-oz-gold-pricing/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 03 Aug 2009 17:25:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Alex Stanczyk</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Gold Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Market Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Alex Stanczyk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ebay]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[http]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Oz]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[USD]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.rapidtrends.com/?p=1864</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Most recent check on gold premiums:
Yes you can always look at spot, but that rarely tells the whole story. Live prices on Ebay (a price mechanism I like because it tells you what the common man thinks) say this:

American Eagle 1/10 Oz    $ 128.00    +33.7% over spot, suggestion a spot price of  1,280.19 / oz
Get [...]div class="feedflare"
a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=Y78ElDPphXQ:yeJdej3WDuI:yIl2AUoC8zA"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?d=yIl2AUoC8zA" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=Y78ElDPphXQ:yeJdej3WDuI:F7zBnMyn0Lo"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?i=Y78ElDPphXQ:yeJdej3WDuI:F7zBnMyn0Lo" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=Y78ElDPphXQ:yeJdej3WDuI:7Q72WNTAKBA"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?d=7Q72WNTAKBA" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=Y78ElDPphXQ:yeJdej3WDuI:V_sGLiPBpWU"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?i=Y78ElDPphXQ:yeJdej3WDuI:V_sGLiPBpWU" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=Y78ElDPphXQ:yeJdej3WDuI:qj6IDK7rITs"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?d=qj6IDK7rITs" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=Y78ElDPphXQ:yeJdej3WDuI:l6gmwiTKsz0"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?d=l6gmwiTKsz0" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=Y78ElDPphXQ:yeJdej3WDuI:gIN9vFwOqvQ"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?i=Y78ElDPphXQ:yeJdej3WDuI:gIN9vFwOqvQ" border="0"/img/a
/div]]></description>
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		<item>
		<title>GSK&#8217;s (Plague) Ship Comes In</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/market-commentary/gsks-plague-ship-comes-in/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/market-commentary/gsks-plague-ship-comes-in/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 03 Aug 2009 05:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Taipan Publishing Group</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Market Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[http]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Plague]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[single  disease]]></category>
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		<description><![CDATA[One drugmaker has figured  out how to pull down $2.52 billion over the next six months off a single  disease – here’s how to get your piece of the action.

It could easily have been a headline from...div class="feedflare"
a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=LRjtrUzWhV8:dbyofRU4uBM:yIl2AUoC8zA"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?d=yIl2AUoC8zA" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=LRjtrUzWhV8:dbyofRU4uBM:V_sGLiPBpWU"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?i=LRjtrUzWhV8:dbyofRU4uBM:V_sGLiPBpWU" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=LRjtrUzWhV8:dbyofRU4uBM:F7zBnMyn0Lo"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?i=LRjtrUzWhV8:dbyofRU4uBM:F7zBnMyn0Lo" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=LRjtrUzWhV8:dbyofRU4uBM:wd9GD17jvC4"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?d=wd9GD17jvC4" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=LRjtrUzWhV8:dbyofRU4uBM:l6gmwiTKsz0"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?d=l6gmwiTKsz0" border="0"/img/a
/divimg src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/taipan/~4/LRjtrUzWhV8" height="1" width="1"/]]></description>
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		<item>
		<title>Is This Really a Global Recovery?</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/market-commentary/is-this-really-a-global-recovery-2/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/market-commentary/is-this-really-a-global-recovery-2/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 01 Aug 2009 08:16:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Claus Vistesen</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Economics]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Manoj Pradhan]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[New York]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Nikkei 225]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Oecd]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[OECD edifice;]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Russia]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[United States]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[William Blake]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[www.morganstanley.com/views/gef/archive/2009/20090724-Fri.html]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Xml]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8991369883287712098.post-3235210443580010269</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[p style="text-align: left;"By Claus Vistesen: Copenhagenbr /emspan/span/em/pp style="text-align: center;"emspanbr //span/em/pp style="text-align: center;"emspanChina! China! burning bright /span/em/p p style="text-align: center;"emspanIn a bubble, Day and Night /span/em/p p style="text-align: center;"emspanIs it Bust or is it Boom/span/em/p p style="text-align: center;"emspanThat frames thy fearful asymmetry?* /span/em/p pbr //p pspanbr //span/ppspanCan you feel it? That calm and soothing feeling of low volatility and heaven bound risky assets driven by green shoots and second derivatives. Well, if you can't you are excused since neither can yours truly, or more precisely; he has a distinctly difficult time seeing from where people get the idea that we are headed for a broad based global recovery. However, beauty as always lies in the eye of the beholder and whichever way you look at it would be difficult to completely deny that the three key ingredients for a global recovery (and a resurgence of carry trade) in the form of low volatility, steadily climbing risky assets, and benign credit wholesale market credit conditions certainly seem to be present in ample quantities.br //span/p p style="text-align: center;"a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_vhPkPUN2aT8/SnHviS-PtXI/AAAAAAAABOY/6XLWT6pw4m8/s1600-h/vix.JPG"span class="full-image-float-right ssNonEditable"spanimg src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_vhPkPUN2aT8/SnHviS-PtXI/AAAAAAAABOY/6XLWT6pw4m8/s320/vix.JPG?__SQUARESPACE_CACHEVERSION=1248980914744" alt="" //span/span/aa href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_vhPkPUN2aT8/SnHviLR30GI/AAAAAAAABOQ/f2LTkVnYnVA/s1600-h/risky.JPG"span class="full-image-float-right ssNonEditable"spanimg src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_vhPkPUN2aT8/SnHviLR30GI/AAAAAAAABOQ/f2LTkVnYnVA/s320/risky.JPG?__SQUARESPACE_CACHEVERSION=1248980933383" alt="" //span/span/aa href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_vhPkPUN2aT8/SnHvh9CogOI/AAAAAAAABOI/cFlG1wRIymY/s1600-h/interbank.JPG"span class="full-image-float-right ssNonEditable"spanimg src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_vhPkPUN2aT8/SnHvh9CogOI/AAAAAAAABOI/cFlG1wRIymY/s320/interbank.JPG?__SQUARESPACE_CACHEVERSION=1248980948847" alt="" //span/span/a/p pspanNow, while it is true that the level of volatility is still higher now than it was pre Q4-2008 and indeed pre August 2007 the trend so far this year has been inexorably down which reflects the perception that the worst may be over as well as the discourse of second derivatives and green shoots which has been with us throughout Q2 2009. With respect to equities they have equally begun to nudge up and are up some 5-10% from the beginning of the year in relation to Europe and the US. If you count from the trough reach some time during the first quarter this year, the increase would of course be bigger. The strength of the recovery discourse has taken many by surprise or perhaps more precisely, it has frustrated many. For example, I take note of the fact that /spana href="http://steenjakobsen.blogspot.com/"spantwo of the most/span/aspan /spana href="http://macro-man.blogspot.com/"spanastute macro traders/span/aspan (at least in my book) are feeling decidedly puzzled by the way the market is behaving at the moment. I cannot say that I blame them. For someone who take pride in being up to date in terms of macroeconomic data and analysis one would find it difficult to track the amount of bullishness which currently appear to have taken hold./span/p pspanNow, I should immediately point out that I am not blind to the existence of the second derivative. I mean, I took calculus and I can also eyeball a graph in changes when I see one. My only gripe is that it only takes the faintest of scratch in the surface of the second derivative/green shoot glamour image to see that the fundamentals have not changed and moreover that the crisis has now moved its locus away from the US and right smack into the mainland of Europe in the form of significant downside risks in relation to Southern Europe and the ongoing mess in the CEE./span/p pspanYet, who is listening to a Danish student of economics anyway?/span/p pspanConsider consequently that the past couple of weeks brought us /spana href="http://macro-man.blogspot.com/2009/07/moon-shot.html"spanBernanke's "exit talk" testimony/span/aspan to congress, news that /spana href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068amp;sid=aJ2v3INz4eus"spana certain Mervyn residing at Threadneedle street/span/aspan would beat Bernanke to the exit, /spana href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601095amp;sid=a9lxY5QzVAI0"spannews that Russia is actually seriously considering/span/aspan issuing (and expecting foreign investors to bite) debt to cover its 2010 deficit, /spana href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068amp;sid=aW1HpxIZtXAs"spannews that Hungary actually lowered interest rates/span/aspan despite, one could easily infer, an abyss of downside in the form of a plunging forint and a liability side denominated in Swiss francs, and finally /spana href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068amp;sid=acY016BvYo5c"spanTimmy's trip to China/span/aspan where it seems that the main message carried was one of reassurance that the US most certainly intend to vigilant towards the rising deficit. /span/p pspanWe could add the a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068amp;sid=aLXFqcpg77cw"Q2 GDP print in the US/a (preliminary) put up a much better figure, - 1% annualised, than expected which has so far been interpreted as a sign of recover although yet again I think that narrating this as a sign of an impending recovery is a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068amp;sid=aVY5gFyU_mSk"somewhat of a stretch/a. Meanwhile, a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068amp;sid=a46.Gr5RgP94"Europe is heading straight for deflation/a and although I know that some economists, especially those of the old academic guard, consistently have been pointing to the benign effects of rigidness on the downside it is very important to remember that those same prices will need to adjust in key Eurozone countries absent a currency to bear some of the burden and thus price/wage rigidity may turn out to be a curse rather than a blessing.br //span/p pspan /span/p pstrongspanWhere is the Recovery?/span/strong/p pspanThe easiest way to approach this question is perhaps to point out where the recovery isn't and here I am talking about the OECD in general. Surely, we may succeed to avoid future cataclysmic events but the something has changed and new fundamentals are taking over. For example, I seriously doubt that many people have considered what it means for the global economy that the US economy will need to run an external surplus and I also think that most people have not yet realized the consequences of the unfolding mess in Europe and the Eurozone. On the other hand I have also stressed before how I am not, after all, a permabear in the sense that /spana href="http://clausvistesen.squarespace.com/alphasources-blog/2009/5/19/emerging-markets-to-fly-first.html"spanI do indeed see positive signs in emerging economies/span/aspan such as for example Brazil, India, Chile, Turkey, and China (although the latter is different for a number of reasons). I won't call this decoupling because evidently it isn't. To stay in the jargon I would rather call it re-coupling since this is essentially what it is and one key issue is the extent to which the new global economic system will help to even out the present imbalances and what consequences this, in some sense, inevitable rebalancing will have on surplus and deficit economies respectively. In this context and although one should always be careful in quoting onself, the following from /spana href="http://clausvistesen.squarespace.com/alphasources-blog/2009/5/25/the-carry-trade-and-the-global-monetary-credit-transmission.html"spanan entry back in May/span/aspan still sums up quite well how I see the world at the moment;/span/p blockquote pspanWe are very much still stuck in the mire and especially so in the context of the so-called developed OECD economies where it is difficult to see where any speedy recovery is going to come from. On the other hand the world is not made up entirely by the OECD edifice and it is exactly the potential for an asymmetric "recovery" and how global monetary policy might serve to transmit such a recovery which is the topic of this entry./span/p /blockquote pspanFor the specifics of how I see the role of global monetary policy and global liquidity I recommend you to visit the actual post. However, it is worth noting that in a world where major global central banks are destined to keep rates low for an extended period it does not take much creativity to imagine the dynamics by which the global economy may potentially move forward driven by carry trade flows financed in the developed world seeking yield in whatever economies that might be able (and willing) to absorb the tide which is coming. /span/p pspanAs I have stressed on several occasions it is exactly this reshuffling of the global economy on the back of the financial crisis which is at the heart of the matter. One obvious consequence is thus that the global economy, at one and the same time, increasingly will be populated by an increasing amount of economies with the need (and desire) to deleverage as well as an increasing amount of economies dependent on exports to achieve economic growth. In wonkish terms, global economies will tend to move towards the same emintertemporal preference/em for consumption and saving and since global intertemporal smoothing, by definition, occurs through current account imbalances it is not difficult to see how there is a constraint on many economies’ ability to smooth their consumption and saving decisions optimally in the case of a process of emcrowding/em in one end of the spectrum. /span/p pspanAn obvious question here becomes; who, if any, will be the economies tilting the scale in the other direction through their ability to provide capacity (return) for other nations' desire to save more? /span/p p /p pstrongspanHow are things in Emerming Market Land then?br //span/strong/p pspanPersonally, I have tended to put my focus elsewhere than China most prominently because I think that the old narrative of the BRIC economies taking over the helm is not an adequate way to look at it. Essentially, I would put Brazil and India one one side and Russia and China on the other side since in the case of the latter they are about to grow old much before they become the economies so many people expect to become. Apart from Brazil and India I also see a fairly wide batch of emerging economies with the potential to do the heavy lifting as we move forward and I would include here economies such as Chile, Indonesia, Turkey, Morroco and a number of others. Much more than quibbling about the actual candidates here I want to emphasise the importance in realizing how this global realignment won't take place with the emergence of one single economy emtaking over from the US, /embut rather with a "basket" of economies/currencies driving the realignment. /span/p pspanHaving said all this, it is pretty difficult to get around the fact that everything seems to be revolving around China at the moment. More specifically fears are growing that in an effort the counter the global recession and in a world where 6-8% growth rates are, in general, difficult to come by Chinese authorities as well as foreign investors are fuelling a bubble in China which may look like the one currently unravelling in e.g. the Baltics look minuscule [quote from a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086amp;sid=ax7WMQz5c3pM"Bloomberg/a and a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/26b99f12-7c6c-11de-a7bf-00144feabdc0,dwp_uuid=9c33700c-4c86-11da-89df-0000779e2340,Authorised=false.html?_i_location=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcms%2Fs%2F0%2F26b99f12-7c6c-11de-a7bf-00144feabdc0%2Cdwp_uuid%3D9c33700c-4c86-11da-89df-0000779e2340.html%3Fftcamp%3Drssamp;_i_referer=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.netvibes.com%2Famp;ftcamp=rss"the FT/a]. Thus and even though I would argue that the analysis should have a different fundamental focus it is still cast in the perspective of, first China and then the BRICs in general. /span/p pspan blockquote pThe BRIC nations, which also include India and Russia, have the four best performing stock markets in dollar terms this year among the world’s 20 biggest, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. China’s a onmouseover="return escape( popwQuoteShort( this, 'SHCOMP:IND' ))" href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=SHCOMP%3AIND"Shanghai Composite Index/a has soared 85 percent in dollars while Brazil’s a onmouseover="return escape( popwQuoteShort( this, 'IBOV:IND' ))" href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=IBOV%3AIND"Bovespa Index/a rose 77 percent. India’s Sensitive Index, or Sensex, climbed 61 percent and Russia’s RTS Index gained 60 percent. The a onmouseover="return escape( popwQuoteShort( this, 'SPX:IND' ))" href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=SPX%3AIND"Standard amp; Poor’s 500 Index/a in the U.S., by comparison, is up 8.4 percent while Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average rose 7.5 percent./p pInvestor appetite for emerging-market assets is building on speculation that countries such as China and Brazil will be among the first to recover from the worst global recession since World War II, said a onmouseover="return escape( popwSearchNews( this ))" href="http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Vinicius+Silvaamp;site=wnewsamp;client=wnewsamp;proxystylesheet=wnewsamp;output=xml_no_dtdamp;ie=UTF-8amp;oe=UTF-8amp;filter=pamp;getfields=wnnisamp;sort=date:D:S:d1"Vinicius Silva/a, New York-based emerging markets strategist for Morgan Stanley. “It highlights the fact that demand for emerging-market assets remain strong and that companies, particularly in the BRIC markets, are using the improvements in capital markets to raise capital,” Silva said./p p(FT)/p pShares in Shanghai and Hong Kong tumbled on Wednesday as investors snapped up two newly listed mainland construction groups while selling down the rest of the market after reports that China’s central bank might rein in bank lending. Shares in China State Construction Engineering rose by as much as 90 per cent on their debut before closing 56 per cent stronger in Shanghai. China’s largest house-builder had last week raised Rmb50.2bn ($7.34bn) in the world’s biggest initial public offering since Visa raised $19bn in March 2008./p /blockquote /span/p pIt is way beyond the scope of this post to open the box on what is really going on China. In terms of that topic I reserve the right to deal with it later and refer, thus far, to my styling on Blake above. However, I did like a href="http://www.morganstanley.com/views/gef/archive/2009/20090729-Wed.html"the recent analysis by Morgan Stanley's Qing Wang/a in which he talks about whether China is over-investing or over saving as well as the very relevant question of where the money would be spent were it not being used to finance the massive infrastructure investment program. Or, what is the opportunity cost of China's fixed asset investment program?/p blockquote pGiven China's high national savings rate, from the perspective of the economy as a whole, there are only three forms in which China can deploy its savings: 1) onshore physical assets; 2) offshore physical assets; and 3) offshore financial assets. Since China maintains tight controls over outbound capital flows, about 70% of China's total offshore assets are in the form of official FX reserve assets as a result of investment made by a single-largest investor - the central bank. Moreover, we estimate that about 65-70% of China's official FX reserves are invested in US dollar assets, the bulk of which are US government bonds./p /blockquote pIn response to this I ask the simple question. What is actually the capacity in China to create return on current and future investment of the magnitudes we are talking about both in the context of a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601089amp;sid=aEf4veIvtcA4"money supplied by domestic stimulus packages/a as well as foreign money thirsty for yield? Wang touches exactly upon this question as he questions just how much China can suck up. I would put it much more bluntly. China's capacity is declining and will continue to do so as we move forward as a result of the ageing which the one child policy is set to produce. This is really the missing story on China at the moment I feel and one story which could go a long way to differentiate the story. In this respect I do agree wholeheartedly with Michael Pettis a href="http://mpettis.com/2009/07/squeezing-out-the-exporters/"when he says/a;/p blockquote pspan style="font-size: small;" I have warned for a long time that it would be very difficult for China to make the necessary transition to a consumption-led economy quickly enough to accommodate the global adjustment taking place. Unless it is willing to see its economy collapse, there is simply no way China can reduce its negative net demand quickly enough to match the contraction in US demand and so avoid squeezing the hell out of the global tradable goods sectors. That is why policy coordination is so important, especially between China and the USD, and of course that is why I continue to be a pessimist. I do not think this policy coordination is taking place. I will write about this more later this week./spanspan style="font-size: small;"br //span/p /blockquote pThe only thing I would add is that this is not simply a question of correcting US-China imbalances, but a more more deep rooted issue in terms of fundamental drivers of international capital flows and the future supply of net capacity./p pMoving on to safer ground a href="http://clausvistesen.squarespace.com/alphasources-blog/2009/7/4/chiles-economy-better-than-the-rest.html"I /aspana href="http://clausvistesen.squarespace.com/alphasources-blog/2009/7/4/chiles-economy-better-than-the-rest.html"recently did a lengthy analysis on Chile/a in which I concluded that the economy was one of to watch for relative good news in relation to the financial crisis. Recently, we learned how Chilean banks booked a healthy a href="http://www.bnamericas.com/news/banking/Banks_book_US*959mn_profit_in_H1"US 959 million profit in the first half of 2009/a and although this number is useless in itself I think that it is pretty obvious from digging into the specifics (see article) that although Chile financial sector has seen its share of losses, the picture is a lot less dire than elsewhere. In fact, if we look at one of graphs that I showed in my analysis of Chile, we see that financial services have held up remarkably well during the financial crisis (see also a href="http://www.bnamericas.com/news/banking/ANALYSIS:_Green_shoots_of_recovery_bode_better_H2,_2010_for_banks"here/a), no doubt due to strong underlying fundamentals as well as a very aggressive policy reaction from the central bank. /span/p p style="text-align: center;"spana href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_vhPkPUN2aT8/Sk9fSt6DVUI/AAAAAAAABL4/pM7P69KvItg/s1600-h/GDP+by+sector.JPG"span class="full-image-float-right ssNonEditable"spanimg src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_vhPkPUN2aT8/Sk9fSt6DVUI/AAAAAAAABL4/pM7P69KvItg/s320/GDP+by+sector.JPG?__SQUARESPACE_CACHEVERSION=1248981017429" alt="" //span/span/a/spanspanbr //span/pp style="text-align: left;"spanGenerally, analysts and local observers in Chile are beginning to notice green shoots with increasing regularity and unlike the ones observed in Europe or elsewhere in the OECD I am more confident that the ones in Chile are going to be long lived although 2009, in all likelihood, will be a tough year when the chapter is closed. The following quote is a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchiveamp;sid=aW9JhkDofVO4"from Bloomberg/a;/span/p blockquote pChile’s economy may be starting to recover from its slump as extra government spending spurs growth, Finance Minister a onmouseover="return escape( popwSearchNews( this ))" href="http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Andres+Velascoamp;site=wnewsamp;client=wnewsamp;proxystylesheet=wnewsamp;output=xml_no_dtdamp;ie=UTF-8amp;oe=UTF-8amp;filter=pamp;getfields=wnnisamp;sort=date:D:S:d1"Andres Velasco/a said today. Velasco has spent more than $4 billion this year on tax cuts and extra outlays. He will pull $8 billion from Chile’s offshore savings funds in 2009 to help pay for the stimulus as well as to plug the budget deficit caused by slowing growth and lower receipts from mining./p pChile is facing the deepest recession since 1999 after revenue from exports declined and a virus ravaged its salmon farming industry. The economy shrank faster than forecast in the first half and probably contracted in the second quarter from the first, the central bank said on July 8./p p“These policies have effects, but they don’t occur overnight, they don’t happen in one month or one quarter,” Velasco said. “We have to continue working, we have to keep a cool head and at the same time be prudently optimistic.”/p /blockquote pNow, Velasco has a distinct interest, of course, in spinning the story in a certain way but until evidence surfaces to the contrary I am willing to buy this story. More generally, the influence of China also pops up in the context of copper prices where many suggest that a large part of the recent increase in Copper prices (and indeed commodities) owes itself exactly to the stimulus money from China. As a side note on this, it seems that the link between rising Copper (and commodities in general) is being increasingly linked to a story of stockpiling in China and then of course, what will happen when China decides that it has had enough. This was a story I picked up on in my analysis of Chile (a href="http://macro-man.blogspot.com/2009/06/china-syndrome.html"picked off from Macro Man/a) and it appears to be gaining traction as an actual analytical explanation./p pElsewhere in Latin America, Morgan Stanley's Latam analyst on Brazil a href="http://www.morganstanley.com/views/gef/archive/2009/20090728-Tue.html#anchor2412c98e-7b73-11de-b5d1-6d6288639586"Marcelo Carvalho simply throws in the towel/a, as it were, devotes an entire note to the link between Brazil and China and what this means for the economic growth of the former. As will come as no surprise Carvalho notes the strong link between Brazil's economic performance and commodity prices and since China certainly seems to be driving the latter, if not directly, then through its effect on overall global sentiment then the rampant growth in China may add positively to the outlook in Brazil./p pMoving the perspective up a further notch and as a concluding remark on my, admittedly, selective tour of the emerging market edifice I will leave you with the recent general statement from a href="http://www.morganstanley.com/views/gef/archive/2009/20090724-Fri.html"Morgan Stanley's Manoj Pradhan/a;/p blockquote pThe strong worldwide rally in risky assets since March reflects not just the relief that the worst is likely behind us, but also anticipation of a return to growth for most economies. Much is expected from Emerging Markets, particularly from Asia ex-Japan, which is expected to outperform the rest of the world. Markets and investors realize, however, that not all EM economies are alike, and some will show output growth that is lower than the 1.3% growth our global team expects from the G10 economies in 2010./p /blockquote pThanks for nothing might be your immediate response here and although I agree that this is extremely general it does sum up the main discourse at the moment whether you agree or not./p p /p pstrongBottomline - What to Watch? /strong/p pThe answer to this question depends on your perspective of course but it seems abundantly clear that if the locus of the financial and economic crisis has moved from the US to the shores of Europe and in particular Eastern and Southern Europe, the corresponding locus of the recovery has moved to Asia (ex-Japan) and most forcefully China. I think it is important to understand how and why these two discourses may co-exist as we move forward./p pI believe it is obviously clear that the global economy is not heading for a quick rebound here, but it is equally as clear that some economies will be able to post growth rates that are much above the mean of what the OECD is able to. In this way, one key theme to watch is how this difference is transmitted through to the global economy e.g. in the form of carry trade flows but also in the form of an evolving process by which some economies begin, and go through, their inevitable adjustment and rebalancing phase./p pIn this specific context I have to be more than a little bit skeptical about the capabilities of China. This is not out of an inherent disdain towards the country but, on the contrary, because I fear that China may ultimately succumb to all those hopes and subsequent load pinned on her shoulders. In this sense I think, although I acknowledge that I have presented no formal analysis to back it up, that the recovery is some way to really materialize and that it may just ultimately be bust and not boom that frames China's economy./p p---/p p* Apologies to William Blake; and of course to a href="http://macro-man.blogspot.com/"Macro Man/a for encroaching on his territory./pdiv class="blogger-post-footer"img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/8991369883287712098-3235210443580010269?l=globaleconomydoesmatter.blogspot.com'//div]]></description>
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		<title>Throwing Rocks at the Healthcare Hornet&#8217;s Nest</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/market-commentary/throwing-rocks-at-the-healthcare-hornets-nest/</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 31 Jul 2009 12:59:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Justice Litle Editorial Director Taipan Publishing Group</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[We touched a raw nerve in this weekrsquo;s piece on ldquo;The Seven  Myths of U.S. Healthcare Reform.rdquo; Today, passionate Taipan Daily readers  respond...

Man... it looks like we really...div class="feedflare"
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		<title>A Couple of Afternoon Links</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-in-energy-markets/a-couple-of-afternoon-links/</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 30 Jul 2009 19:45:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Michael E. Brisky</dc:creator>
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		<category><![CDATA[Fisher Investments Inc.]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Kenneth Fisher;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[major financial problems]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[michael brisky]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mortgage Finance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Plunge]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Woodside]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Xml]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-819581243324579563.post-6878111188745218900</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Found a couple of things I wanted to pass along.  (Both from Bloomberg)br /br /br /1) a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20603037amp;sid=a.pZggcuVEp8"Chinese Stocks to Recover From Plunge, Fisher Says/a.br /br /blockquoteChinese a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=SHCOMP%3AIND" onmouseover="return escape( popwQuoteShort( this, 'SHCOMP:IND' ))"stocks/a will recover from their steepest drop since November and end the year higher as speculation that the government will limit bank loans is unfounded, billionaire investor a href="http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Kenneth+Fisheramp;site=wnewsamp;client=wnewsamp;proxystylesheet=wnewsamp;output=xml_no_dtdamp;ie=UTF-8amp;oe=UTF-8amp;filter=pamp;getfields=wnnisamp;sort=date:D:S:d1" onmouseover="return escape( popwSearchNews( this ))"Kenneth Fisher/a said.             pThe nation’s economy is “gangbusters compared to the rest of the world, why would they try to kick that?” said Fisher, who has about $900 million invested in Chinese shares among the $28 billion he manages as chief executive officer of Fisher Investments Inc. in Woodside, California. “They have zero incentive” to curb lending, he said. /p/blockquotepbr //ppZero incentive? How about the incentive to avert a massive bubble that when it deflates causes major financial problems?  Let's see, I know we've seen this somewhere before.  You don't even need to be a financial "expert" (like our Federal Reserve) to see that coming after what has happened in the US and Europe.  I generally like what Ken Fisher has to say, but I believe hes just being a cheerleader and trying to attract assets.  /ppbr //ppbr //pp2) a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110amp;sid=aEwoLtQMHq5Y"Fannie, Freddie Won't Repay All Aid, Lockhart Says/a./pa href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=FRE%3AUS" onmouseover="return escape( popwQuoteShort( this, 'FRE:US' ))"/ablockquotea href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=FRE%3AUS" onmouseover="return escape( popwQuoteShort( this, 'FRE:US' ))"Fannie Mae/a and Freddie Mac, the largest U.S. mortgage-finance companies, won’t be able to repay all of the $84.9 billion in federal aid they have received since being seized by the government last year, their regulator said.             p“Some assets and senior preferreds will have to be left behind as they come out of conservatorship, and that means some of those losses will never be repaid,” Federal Housing Finance Agency Director a href="http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=James+Lockhartamp;site=wnewsamp;client=wnewsamp;proxystylesheet=wnewsamp;output=xml_no_dtdamp;ie=UTF-8amp;oe=UTF-8amp;filter=pamp;getfields=wnnisamp;sort=date:D:S:d1" onmouseover="return escape( popwSearchNews( this ))"James Lockhart/a said at a speech in Washington today. “Their book is so large, it’s hard for me to see that they will be able to repay all of that.” /p/blockquotepbr //ppI think everyone saw this one coming.  Its just unfortunate. That's my only comment here./ppThe market is enjoying another strong day as the bulls still have all the momentum and Samp;P 1000 looks easily attainable.  I'm still interested to see what happens post-earnings, but for now the market is jumping on the recovery bandwagon.  I'm holding all my longs and might trim a few if we see prices run up much higher.  I have some stocks I'd like to buy, but hate chasing them.br //ppbr //pdiv class="blogger-post-footer"img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/819581243324579563-6878111188745218900?l=briskycapital.blogspot.com'//div]]></description>
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		<title>A Huge concentration of OTC Derivatives</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/gold-markets/a-huge-concentration-of-otc-derivatives/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/gold-markets/a-huge-concentration-of-otc-derivatives/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 30 Jul 2009 17:14:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Alex Stanczyk</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Gold Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Market Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Alex Stanczyk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[http]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.rapidtrends.com/?p=1846</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Alex#8217;s Notes: I find it curious that its the same cast of suspects, over and over.
It is also curious that several of these firms holding the largest short positions in gold and silver of all market participants globally.
Coincidence? I think not.
Get safe while you can.
Five Firms Hold 80% of Derivatives Risk, Fitch Report Finds
David M. [...]div class="feedflare"
a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=juYMBOyFxY8:RxXxmxW4bh4:yIl2AUoC8zA"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?d=yIl2AUoC8zA" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=juYMBOyFxY8:RxXxmxW4bh4:F7zBnMyn0Lo"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?i=juYMBOyFxY8:RxXxmxW4bh4:F7zBnMyn0Lo" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=juYMBOyFxY8:RxXxmxW4bh4:7Q72WNTAKBA"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?d=7Q72WNTAKBA" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=juYMBOyFxY8:RxXxmxW4bh4:V_sGLiPBpWU"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?i=juYMBOyFxY8:RxXxmxW4bh4:V_sGLiPBpWU" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=juYMBOyFxY8:RxXxmxW4bh4:qj6IDK7rITs"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?d=qj6IDK7rITs" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=juYMBOyFxY8:RxXxmxW4bh4:l6gmwiTKsz0"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?d=l6gmwiTKsz0" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=juYMBOyFxY8:RxXxmxW4bh4:gIN9vFwOqvQ"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?i=juYMBOyFxY8:RxXxmxW4bh4:gIN9vFwOqvQ" border="0"/img/a
/div]]></description>
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		<title>One Ray of Light in an Otherwise Cloudy Forecast</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/market-commentary/one-ray-of-light-in-an-otherwise-cloudy-forecast/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/market-commentary/one-ray-of-light-in-an-otherwise-cloudy-forecast/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 30 Jul 2009 05:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Taipan Publishing Group</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Market Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[http]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[Here’s how to find  a quick 58% gain in the middle of a muddy situation.

A fair portion of my business day  is consumed by reading economic reports of varying sorts: Durable Goods  reports, Consumer...div class="feedflare"
a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=Sm9MK8HGhM4:fvjpS_tT46I:yIl2AUoC8zA"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?d=yIl2AUoC8zA" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=Sm9MK8HGhM4:fvjpS_tT46I:V_sGLiPBpWU"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?i=Sm9MK8HGhM4:fvjpS_tT46I:V_sGLiPBpWU" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=Sm9MK8HGhM4:fvjpS_tT46I:F7zBnMyn0Lo"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?i=Sm9MK8HGhM4:fvjpS_tT46I:F7zBnMyn0Lo" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=Sm9MK8HGhM4:fvjpS_tT46I:wd9GD17jvC4"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?d=wd9GD17jvC4" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=Sm9MK8HGhM4:fvjpS_tT46I:l6gmwiTKsz0"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?d=l6gmwiTKsz0" border="0"/img/a
/divimg src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/taipan/~4/Sm9MK8HGhM4" height="1" width="1"/]]></description>
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		<title>China stocking up on commodities while the fiat money has its current value</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/gold-markets/china-stocking-up-on-commodities-while-the-fiat-money-has-its-current-value/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/gold-markets/china-stocking-up-on-commodities-while-the-fiat-money-has-its-current-value/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 25 Jul 2009 17:26:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Alex Stanczyk</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Gold Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Market Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Alex Stanczyk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[China]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[United States]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.rapidtrends.com/?p=1833</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Alex#8217;s Notes: Hold on to your gold, and buy more.
The Chinese are pretty smart cookies. Ya, I know, I go on and on about the Chinese, but why shouldn#8217;t I?
In many ways, they are taking the exact same path the US took in its rise to dominance.
The US used to have strategic stockpiles of virtually [...]div class="feedflare"
a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=nY4qxTc9Yb8:citM5v8qHOM:yIl2AUoC8zA"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?d=yIl2AUoC8zA" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=nY4qxTc9Yb8:citM5v8qHOM:F7zBnMyn0Lo"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?i=nY4qxTc9Yb8:citM5v8qHOM:F7zBnMyn0Lo" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=nY4qxTc9Yb8:citM5v8qHOM:7Q72WNTAKBA"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?d=7Q72WNTAKBA" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=nY4qxTc9Yb8:citM5v8qHOM:V_sGLiPBpWU"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?i=nY4qxTc9Yb8:citM5v8qHOM:V_sGLiPBpWU" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=nY4qxTc9Yb8:citM5v8qHOM:qj6IDK7rITs"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?d=qj6IDK7rITs" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=nY4qxTc9Yb8:citM5v8qHOM:l6gmwiTKsz0"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?d=l6gmwiTKsz0" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=nY4qxTc9Yb8:citM5v8qHOM:gIN9vFwOqvQ"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?i=nY4qxTc9Yb8:citM5v8qHOM:gIN9vFwOqvQ" border="0"/img/a
/div]]></description>
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		<title>China gold demand may eclipse Inda gold demand</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/gold-markets/china-gold-demand-may-eclipse-inda-gold-demand/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/gold-markets/china-gold-demand-may-eclipse-inda-gold-demand/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 25 Jul 2009 16:47:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Alex Stanczyk</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Gold Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Market Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Alex Stanczyk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[China]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.rapidtrends.com/?p=1830</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Chinese have a memory of fiat currency failure as it has happened a handful of times. The chinese cultural memory goes back a long ways. Metal is flowing like a river from west to east.
There is an ancient saying of #8216;He who has the gold, makes the rules#8217;. This isnt just a cliche, but rather [...]div class="feedflare"
a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=97JqlWxgoXA:ok9pOfW42Bs:yIl2AUoC8zA"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?d=yIl2AUoC8zA" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=97JqlWxgoXA:ok9pOfW42Bs:F7zBnMyn0Lo"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?i=97JqlWxgoXA:ok9pOfW42Bs:F7zBnMyn0Lo" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=97JqlWxgoXA:ok9pOfW42Bs:7Q72WNTAKBA"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?d=7Q72WNTAKBA" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=97JqlWxgoXA:ok9pOfW42Bs:V_sGLiPBpWU"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?i=97JqlWxgoXA:ok9pOfW42Bs:V_sGLiPBpWU" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=97JqlWxgoXA:ok9pOfW42Bs:qj6IDK7rITs"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?d=qj6IDK7rITs" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=97JqlWxgoXA:ok9pOfW42Bs:l6gmwiTKsz0"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?d=l6gmwiTKsz0" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=97JqlWxgoXA:ok9pOfW42Bs:gIN9vFwOqvQ"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?i=97JqlWxgoXA:ok9pOfW42Bs:gIN9vFwOqvQ" border="0"/img/a
/div]]></description>
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		<title>House Passes Bill For Natural Gas Vehicle Research</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-in-energy-markets/house-passes-bill-for-natural-gas-vehicle-research/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-in-energy-markets/house-passes-bill-for-natural-gas-vehicle-research/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 22 Jul 2009 17:21:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Michael E. Brisky</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Energy Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Market Commentary]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Bill For Natural Gas Vehicle]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[conversion equipment]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Natural Gas]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[natural gas conversion systems]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[natural gas engines]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[natural gas vehicle industry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[natural gas vehicle research]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[natural gas vehicles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[NGVAmerica]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[p pNGVAmerica]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Richard  Kolodziej]]></category>
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		<description><![CDATA[Found this a href="http://www.businesswire.com/portal/site/google/?ndmViewId=news_viewamp;newsId=20090720006183amp;newsLang=en"press release/a about the House of Representatives passing the bill to fund research for natural gas vehicles.  Keep in mind, this isn't the large NATGAS act, as that bill is still in congress.br /br /p/pblockquotepToday, the House of Representatives, by unanimous consent, passed H.R. 1622 – a  bill that would direct the Secretary of Energy to: (1) conduct a five-year  program of natural gas vehicle research, development, and demonstration; and (2)  coordinate with the natural gas vehicle industry and with the Administrator of  the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) regarding streamlining the  certification of natural gas conversion systems to federal certification  requirements and in-use emission standards. /p pbr //ppThe bill was sponsored by Rep. John Sullivan (R-OK), who has been a champion  in support of natural gas vehicle issues. /p pbr //pp“We commend Mr. Sullivan’s committed leadership on this issue,” said Richard  Kolodziej, president of NGVAmerica. “NGVs can make an even greater impact on  displacing foreign oil while reducing greenhouse gases and urban pollution. But  to do so we need more natural gas engines integrated into more vehicle  platforms. The two parts of this bill would help do that by providing federally  supported Ramp;D funding and streamlining the EPA certification process for  conversion equipment to get more conversion equipment into the market faster and  with less cost.” /p pbr //ppThe bill would authorize $30 million a year from fiscal 2010 to 2014 for  natural gas vehicle research and development. /p pNGVAmerica is a national organization dedicated to the development of a  growing, sustainable and profitable market for vehicles powered by natural gas  or biomethane. NGVAmerica represents more than 100 companies interested in the  promotion and use of natural gas and biomethane as transportation fuels,  including: engine, vehicle and equipment manufacturers; fleet operators and  service providers; natural gas companies; and environmental groups and  government organizations. For more information about NGVAmerica, visit our  website at a href="http://cts.businesswire.com/ct/CT?id=smartlinkamp;url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ngvamerica.orgamp;esheet=6011088amp;lan=en_USamp;anchor=www.ngvamerica.orgamp;index=1" target="_blank" shape="rect"www.ngvamerica.org/a/p/blockquotepa href="http://cts.businesswire.com/ct/CT?id=smartlinkamp;url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ngvamerica.orgamp;esheet=6011088amp;lan=en_USamp;anchor=www.ngvamerica.orgamp;index=1" target="_blank" shape="rect"/a /pbr /This is a positive step in the right direction.  I'm a believer in natural gas being a big part of our new energy plan in both power generation and transportation.br /br /Long UNG, and still looking to buy FSYS.div class="blogger-post-footer"img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/819581243324579563-6997714094563110440?l=briskycapital.blogspot.com'//div]]></description>
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		<title>The Return of Exploding Debt Dynamics, Part I</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/market-commentary/the-return-of-exploding-debt-dynamics-part-i/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/market-commentary/the-return-of-exploding-debt-dynamics-part-i/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 22 Jul 2009 05:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Justice Litle Editorial Director Taipan Publishing Group</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Market Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[http]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Macro Trader]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[USD]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[Nine months ago Taipan Daily introduced you to “Exploding Debt Dynamics.” If you think we’re out of  the woods, think again... eye-popping sums like $23.7 trillion might just be  the tip of the...div class="feedflare"
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		<title>ComScore Claims to have a Larger Panel</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/current-market-news/comscore-claims-to-have-a-larger-panel/</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 15 Jul 2009 22:12:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Faisal Laljee</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[ComScore (SCOR) and Nielsen are both market research and audience measurement businesses. They have a "panel" of independent internet users whose activities they monitor (with permission of course) and based on the internet usage of this panel, they pu...]]></description>
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		<title>To The Finland Station And Back Again</title>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 14 Jul 2009 19:27:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Edward Hugh</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[by Edward Hugh: Barcelonabr /br /This post accompanies my recent piece on Sweden. I have been scratching my head and  trying to see what could be learnt from making a comparison between Finland and Sweden. Some of the differences are obvious - one is in the euro, and the other isn't, once can adjust monetary policy and currency values, and the other can't. Others are less so. Finland's goods trade surplus has been declining steadily since joining EMU while Sweden's has remained relatively constant. And Swedish males live on average three years longer than their Finnish counterparts. So what is important here, and why? And if convergence theory has anything positive to be said for it, shouldn't we be able to observe so sort of convergence going on here.br /br /br /First, and just to remind ourselves, here is the chart from Claus Vistesen which shows what the relation between population ageing and current account balance might look like. The key point is that as populations age beyond a certain point, a tendency to run a current account surplus emerges, as domestic demand steadily weakens, and becomes insufficient to drive growth. Evidence for this phenomenon can be found in Germany, Japan and Sweden.br /br /br /a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SlMSCXRnOaI/AAAAAAAAOhs/0ENVvdtHpMA/s1600-h/claus+model.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 190px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5355644213690579362" border="0" alt="" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SlMSCXRnOaI/AAAAAAAAOhs/0ENVvdtHpMA/s400/claus+model.png" //abr /br /The idea is that as median population age rises the current account dynamics of a country change. The last ageing phase shown to the right of the diagram is purely speculative at this point, although theory suggests that if the underlying momentum of ageing is left unaddressed it may well be what happens. But it is a development which is to be strongly avoided since although we do not yet know what happens when a society starts to dis-save at an advanced median age, the longer we can put off finding out, the better. p/ppWhich is why looking at Finland is important, since unlike the three aforementioned "ideal type" agers, Finland has in fact seen a deterioration in its external position over the last decade, and even though it has, up to now, remained a surplus country, the trend is certainly towards deficit, and this trend needs to be halted and reversed. Indeed this is the most pressing policy problem facing the Finnish authorities during the current recession.br /br /br /Now, as in Finland, Sweden's external position underwent a structural shift in the mid 1990s, just as Claus's model predicts. First positive balance - the submarine breaks water - in 1994, meadian age 38.4 (quite young in international comparisons so interesting). So so far so good.br /br //ppa href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SlMTH16o8xI/AAAAAAAAOh0/t_tPM89ZNeU/s1600-h/sweden+CA+balance.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 232px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5355645407326696210" border="0" alt="" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SlMTH16o8xI/AAAAAAAAOh0/t_tPM89ZNeU/s400/sweden+CA+balance.png" //abr /br /So Sweden is a sort of normal case, now let's look at Finland. Once more the mid 1990s "transition" is clear. Finland moves from deficit to surplus. But unlike the Swedish case the surplus peaks around the turn of the century, and since then has been steadily weakening.br /br /a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SleFZf-Qf8I/AAAAAAAAOj8/s3uL4qSA1NA/s1600-h/finland+CA+balance.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 202px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5356896954906345410" border="0" alt="" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SleFZf-Qf8I/AAAAAAAAOj8/s3uL4qSA1NA/s400/finland+CA+balance.png" //abr /br /There can be a number of explanations for this. The pattern of ageing could, for example, be different in Finland. Or the euro might be a factor, with the loss of control over monetary policy leading to a steady deterioration in the level of international competitiveness. As we will see below, some part of the explanation may be provided by each of these, but first, lets take a look as some of the empirical aspects of Finland's present recession, since it is evident that Finland, like many other countries, has entered a strong recession on the current back the global crisis. br /br /strongStrong Decline In Finland's GDP/strongbr /br /In the first three months of this year GDP was down by 2.7% when compared with the last three months of last year (an 11.2% annualised rate of contraction).br /br /a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SleRyBM2YqI/AAAAAAAAOkM/_-6npDRFPUU/s1600-h/finland+GDP+2.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 203px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5356910570282312354" border="0" alt="" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SleRyBM2YqI/AAAAAAAAOkM/_-6npDRFPUU/s400/finland+GDP+2.png" //a And it was down by 7.5% when compared with the first quarter of 2008 (Eurostat data).br /br /a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SleRrNlzMFI/AAAAAAAAOkE/GbzBEZebYiI/s1600-h/finland+gdp+one.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 203px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5356910453349101650" border="0" alt="" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SleRrNlzMFI/AAAAAAAAOkE/GbzBEZebYiI/s400/finland+gdp+one.png" //abr /br /br /One significant difference which can already be noted between Sweden and Finland is that while the last three months of 2008 were definitely much worse than the first three months of 2009 in Swedan, in Finland, as in many other Eurozone economies, Q1 2009 was definitely much worse than Q4 2008. And indeed, while Sweden's economy shows some definite signs of small green shoots in Q2 2009, as far as we can see, Finland's economy still remains deeply mired in recession. Finland does not have a local variant of the ubiquitous Purchasing Managers Surveys, but the statistics office does maintain a monthly gross domestic product (GDP) indicator. Now, while the methodology is very different (the PMI composites are survey based and qualitative, and much more reliable) for what it is worth Finland's GDP indicator fell 9.2 percent in April in comparison with April 2008, that is to say, the year on year contraction was greater than in the first quarter, but it is difficult to draw any definitive conclusion from this, since there are many statistical factors at work here.br /br /According to Statistics Finland building and manufacturing industry were the hardest hit.br /br /br /a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SleSGLHN4lI/AAAAAAAAOkU/iqk_UXBLuOQ/s1600-h/finland+GDP+indicator.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 220px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5356910916540424786" border="0" alt="" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SleSGLHN4lI/AAAAAAAAOkU/iqk_UXBLuOQ/s400/finland+GDP+indicator.png" //abr /br /The April data showed production in construction and manufacturing - both key contributors to the Finnish economy - down around 17 percent year-on-year. Production in April was down 0.6 percent from March. Output in agriculture and forestry showed slight growth on an annual basis of just below two percent, while services fell six percent.br /br /And the outlook for the rest of this year does not look much brighter. The OECD forecasts growth in the Finnish economy will fall by 4.7 percent in 2009 with a return to 0.8 percent growth next year. Significantly the OECD also stressed that uncertainty in the evolution of international trade poses the greatest risk in the outlook for the Finnish economy.br /br /The IMF currently expects the economy to shrink by 5.2 percent this year and again by 1.2 percent next year, while the latest finance ministry forecast is for a 6.0 percent shrinkage this year followed by 0.3 percent growth next year. All the 2009 forecasts seem to be subject to downside risk, while the 2010 ones are no better than guesses, since the level of uncertainty is so high, and Finland is so dependent on external trade, but further contraction seems more probable than growth at this point./ppbr /strongShort Term Indicators/strongbr /br /Industrial output fell again in May (year on year) for the seventh consecutive month, and was down by 23.2 percent over May 2008. This follows a revised fall of 21.3 in April.br /br /br /br //ppa href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/Slej6XoJ9QI/AAAAAAAAOlk/rB4_suQB6EM/s1600-h/finland+IP+one.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 233px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5356930504950674690" border="0" alt="" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/Slej6XoJ9QI/AAAAAAAAOlk/rB4_suQB6EM/s400/finland+IP+one.png" //abr /br /Month-on-month, industrial production also fell - by 2.2 percent from April when it fell by 3.8 percent over March. So the industrial situation is deteriorating, not improving at this point. Output fell in all main sectors, with metal industry reporting the biggest decline around 28 percent, while the paper industry production also shrank by nearly 28 percent year-on-year.br /br /a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SlekAuJTFcI/AAAAAAAAOls/QFbpolPVU9g/s1600-h/finland+IP+two.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 230px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5356930614074480066" border="0" alt="" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SlekAuJTFcI/AAAAAAAAOls/QFbpolPVU9g/s400/finland+IP+two.png" //abr /br /Over the January to May period, industrial output decreased by close on 22 per cent from the corresponding period in the previous year. And there seems to be little improvement on the horizon. According to Statistics Finland, the value of new orders in manufacturing was 39.6 per cent lower in May 2009 than in May 2008, slightly above the January to May average decrease of 38.9 per cent year-on-year.br /br /a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SlhIYF5xH3I/AAAAAAAAOmM/gwv9TvECAPY/s1600-h/finland+new+orders.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 223px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5357111335495737202" border="0" alt="" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SlhIYF5xH3I/AAAAAAAAOmM/gwv9TvECAPY/s400/finland+new+orders.png" //abr /br /As in earlier months, the decline in new orders was strongest in the metal industry (47.5 per cent). In the chemical industry new orders fell by 30.7 per cent, in the textile industry by 28.5 per cent and in the manufacture of paper, and paper and board products by 19.4 per cent.br /br /Construction activity is also well down, falling by 14.4% year on year in March (the latest detailed data we have), and by around 17% in April according to the GDP indicator.br /br /br /a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SleXNKdAa-I/AAAAAAAAOkc/OjHPFOr1FSc/s1600-h/finland+construction+one.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 232px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5356916534180604898" border="0" alt="" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SleXNKdAa-I/AAAAAAAAOkc/OjHPFOr1FSc/s400/finland+construction+one.png" //abr /br /br /a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SleXUucI7yI/AAAAAAAAOkk/vJWxuqPZrRs/s1600-h/finland+construction+two.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 230px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5356916664099729186" border="0" alt="" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SleXUucI7yI/AAAAAAAAOkk/vJWxuqPZrRs/s400/finland+construction+two.png" //abr /br /Finland did not have a massive construction boom. The construction of new dwellings shows no obvious surge in the first decade of the century.br /br /a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SlhToOeCtjI/AAAAAAAAOmU/iLNXI3GyOOU/s1600-h/finland+completed+dwellings.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 203px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5357123707301180978" border="0" alt="" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SlhToOeCtjI/AAAAAAAAOmU/iLNXI3GyOOU/s400/finland+completed+dwellings.png" //abr /br /On the other hand rate of household indebtedness is up, with the ratio of debt to disposable income rising to 101.4 percent in 2007, from 70.3 percent in 2002. Significantly, the rate of indebtedness among households composed of persons in the key 25 to 34 age range reached 189 percent in 2007. House prices seem to be a story of one long steady march upwards since 1995, but prices did start to fall in 2008, and this trend now seems set to continue.br /br /a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SlhlgK9MxLI/AAAAAAAAOmc/BbpjfpDqrns/s1600-h/finland+falt+prices.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 201px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5357143360128468146" border="0" alt="" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SlhlgK9MxLI/AAAAAAAAOmc/BbpjfpDqrns/s400/finland+falt+prices.png" //abr /br /Retail sales, which give us a measure of domestic demand, are also falling, if still only moderately. According to Eurostat, retail trade sales fell by 2.99 percent year on year in April. According to the Finnish Statistics Office, sales between January-April were down by 1.6 percent over a year earlier. During the same time period, motor vehicle trade sales were down 31.8 percent and wholesale trade sales down 17.5 percent.br /br /br /a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SlemDngqsOI/AAAAAAAAOl8/7C0oGNnYqFk/s1600-h/finland+retail+sales+two.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 229px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5356932862856311010" border="0" alt="" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SlemDngqsOI/AAAAAAAAOl8/7C0oGNnYqFk/s400/finland+retail+sales+two.png" //abr /br /a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SlelzyUj7PI/AAAAAAAAOl0/SlBmc_ie5O4/s1600-h/finland+retail+sales+one.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 230px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5356932590880419058" border="0" alt="" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SlelzyUj7PI/AAAAAAAAOl0/SlBmc_ie5O4/s400/finland+retail+sales+one.png" //abr /br /Finland's unemployment rate continues to rise, and at an accelerating pace. The increase in those unemployed from April to May alone was greater than that in the whole of last autumn, according to Statistics Finland. From January to May the seasonally adjusted jobless rate was up by two percent and there were more than 300,000 people recorded as without work in May, 60,000 more than in May 2008, taking the national unemployment rate as measured by Finland Statistics to 10.9 percent.br /br /Using the EU (ILO compatible) methodology, Eurostat report the May unemployment rate as 8.1 percent. The OECD expect unemployment to continue to rise in Finland, and forecast an unemployment rate of 8.7 percent this year, rising to 10.8 percent next year (ILO methodology).br /br /br /a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SlenmfBj7zI/AAAAAAAAOmE/yMRmZ6ZW-vo/s1600-h/finland+unemployment+rate.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 232px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5356934561385410354" border="0" alt="" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SlenmfBj7zI/AAAAAAAAOmE/yMRmZ6ZW-vo/s400/finland+unemployment+rate.png" //abr /br /br /The OECD is also worried about employment in Finland in the longer term, and point out that while the country has taken important steps to remove the barriers to employment of older workers (see a href="http://www.oecd.org/document/9/0,3343,en_2649_34747_28023113_1_1_1_1,00.html"the OECD publication Ageing and Employment Policies in Finland/a) more needs to be done. Since the early 1990s, Finland has introduced programmes to support the employment of older workers, notably the National Programme on Ageing Workers. It has also recently undertaken a major reform of the old-age pension system and will phase out early retirement schemes.br /br /a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SleYcpAUieI/AAAAAAAAOk8/NG9R-FRUCsc/s1600-h/finland+median+age.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 230px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5356917899591453154" border="0" alt="" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SleYcpAUieI/AAAAAAAAOk8/NG9R-FRUCsc/s400/finland+median+age.png" //abr /br /However, Finland’s median age is rising steadily (see chart above) and the old-age dependency ratio (population aged 65 and over as a proportion of the population aged 20-64) is projected to increase from 25% in 2000 to 43% in 2025 compared with an OECD average of 22% in 2000 and 33% in 2025. This is a very steep rise, and raising employment rates among the older population is going to be the key to meeting the challenges presented by the need to find export lead growth.br /br /According to the OECD, only around 30% of people aged 61 are currently working – a drop of more than 50 percentage points compared with 51 year olds. This steep drop in employment rates can primarily be explained by the fact that Finland has too many pathways to early retirement, notably unemployment benefits, unemployment pension, disability pension and individual early retirement pension. Already at the age of 50, 18% of individuals are receiving either unemployment or disability benefits, increasing to more than 46% by the age of 60. Moreover, in the age group 60-64 most unemployed persons transfer to the unemployment pension with a further 20% relying on disability benefits and about 10% rely on the individual early retirement pension.br /br /br /strongDeflation dynamics/strongbr /br /br /Like Sweden, the inflation data also throws into the limelight the disparity between the EU HICP measure (which does not include housing interest) and the national CPI (which does). Year-on-year inflation, calculated by Statistics Finland dropped to 0.0 per cent in May, while in April it was still 0.8 per cent. According to Statistics Finland the drop was primarily due a fall in food prices and interest rates. Between April and May, consumer prices fell by 0.2 per cent. On the EU HICP index, however, year on year inflation is currently running at 1.5 percent. Thus, in a time of falling house prices and lowered interest rates, the HICP totally underestimates the deflation danger.br /br /a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SleeGZNLsrI/AAAAAAAAOlc/aq-vhpTdqUI/s1600-h/finland+CPI.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 230px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5356924114463077042" border="0" alt="" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SleeGZNLsrI/AAAAAAAAOlc/aq-vhpTdqUI/s400/finland+CPI.png" //abr /br /It is important to remember here that two-thirds of Finland’s housing stock consists of owner-occupied homes, and home ownership is widespread in all forms of housing, including apartments as well as detached houses and row houses. Normally falling interest rates would produce rising house values, due to the affordability effect, but under current conditions we are observing the opposite. I can't help feeling that European monetary policymakers need to think more about this type of thing.br /br /br /More evidence for deflationary headwinds is offered by producer prices for manufactured products, which fell by 8.1 per cent year on year in May. Export prices were down 9.8 per cent and import prices fell by 11.7 per cent. The year-on-year change in the wholesale price index was -8.9 per cent.br /br /a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SledXbFfrVI/AAAAAAAAOlU/4OlIOIVaSfc/s1600-h/finland+ppi+one.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 232px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5356923307513851218" border="0" alt="" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SledXbFfrVI/AAAAAAAAOlU/4OlIOIVaSfc/s400/finland+ppi+one.png" //abr /br /a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SledR64EbDI/AAAAAAAAOlM/ZtxRqmJARKI/s1600-h/finland+ppi+one.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 232px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5356923212968258610" border="0" alt="" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SledR64EbDI/AAAAAAAAOlM/ZtxRqmJARKI/s400/finland+ppi+one.png" //abr /br /strongSo Where Are We?/strongbr /br /br /Finland's economy faces important challanges in both the short and long terms. Finland's state debt is low at the present time, which gives the capacity for short term stimulus and bank bailouts. But it is rising, and reached a record high of 70.6 billion euros by the end of the first quarter of 2009. General government debt, calculated according to Eurostat methodology, grew by 7.5 billion euros in January-March, and reached 38 percent of 2008 gross domestic product (GDP). Still, there is plenty of stimulus ammunition left, the important thing is to use it wisely, and try to engineer an economic transition.br /br /br /br /The severe contraction in the Finnish economy is also likely to take its toll on bank credit fundamentals, according to the credit rating agency Moody's. The agency recently reaffirmed its negative outlook for the Finnish banking system. Up until now the Finnish banking sector - lead by Pohjola Bank and local branches of Nordea and Danske Bank - appear to have been weathering the storm without undue difficulty due to minimal exposure to toxic assets and a focus on traditional banking activities, according to Moody's. However:br /br /br /"Given that the crisis on financial markets has now spread extensively into the real economy, Moody's expects Finnish banks to be adversely affected," according to the latest report. Moody's said an increase in bankruptcies was indicative of the weakened credit environment.br /br /Corporate bankruptcies increased 33 percent in January-May from a year ago, according to Statistics Finland.br /br /br /The Finnish government has already approved one supplementary budget for 2009 including a special stimulus package. The overall impact is estimated at around €2 billion (although new spending is estimated at only €1.2 billion), and includes about €140 million in transport infrastructure projects. The government has committed itself to implementing a guaranteed pension from the beginning of March 2011. This will cost around €111 million a year, and will raise the lowest pensions by about €100 a month - affecting about 120,000 people.br /br /There have also been a number of measures aimed directly at helping corporate finance. The government now offers banks operating in Finland both deposit guarantees and capital, and will also invest its pension funds in corporate bonds, offer companies financial support through the specialised state-owned finance company, Finnvera, and provide partial financing for the construction of thousands of new homes through the state-owned credit institution Kuntarahoitus (Municipal  Finance).br /br /Overall, the government has pledged about €60 billion in guarantees, loans and investments, and is expecting a boost of €45 billion in corporate financing. Prime Minister Vanhanen described the decisions as ‘massive, even gigantic’. The largest sums of money are in the bank support package, which aims to secure the continuity of corporate credit. In fact, the Finnish parliament has already approved guarantees of €40 billion to help banks to raise capital.br /br /br /But in the longer term the issues raised at the start of this post need to be addressed. Competitiveness needs to be restored to the Finnish economy, and exports boosted, as illustrated by the REER chart below. In particular the situation pre 2007 needs to be restored. The change is not massive (maybe only 5% or so), so it is doable, and it needs to be done, especially since the Swedish Krona has been significantly devalued.br /br /br /a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SleYhK9j5yI/AAAAAAAAOlE/ABWBRXo1X2w/s1600-h/finland+REER.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 203px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5356917977426159394" border="0" alt="" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SleYhK9j5yI/AAAAAAAAOlE/ABWBRXo1X2w/s400/finland+REER.png" //abr /br /As mentioned previously, the goods trade balance has been deteriorating, and the earlier positive balance now needs to be restored.br /br /a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SleYT6YC0NI/AAAAAAAAOks/DIqtYsokRx8/s1600-h/finland+goods+balance.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 233px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5356917749635535058" border="0" alt="" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SleYT6YC0NI/AAAAAAAAOks/DIqtYsokRx8/s400/finland+goods+balance.png" //abr /br /One of the things that stands out is Finland's differential preformance vis a vis Sweden. Using data prepared by Eurostat which shows the volume indexes of strongGDP per capita/strong as expressed in Purchasing Power Standards (PPS) (with the European Union - EU-27 - average set at 100) it is apparent that a gap exists (see below) and that it is not being closed. In fact, after 1998 the two lines move tantalisingly in tandem, but with Finnish per capital GDP stuck just short of the Swedish level. Any reading on these indexes of over 100 implies that the country's level of GDP per head is higher than the EU average and vice versa, and relative movements in the indexes imply that the rates of change in GDP per capita are either improving more or less rapidly than the EU average. The basic data behind the charts is expressed in PPS which effectively become a common currency eliminating differences in price levels between countries making possible meaningful volume comparisons of relative GDP per capita. Since the index is calculated using PPS figures and expressed with respect to EU27 = 100, it is only valid for cross-country comparison purposes and not for individual country inter-temporal comparisons, nonetheless charts based on such data are extraordinarily revealing.br /br /a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/Sli5_RB6ZOI/AAAAAAAAOoI/5-x-QudwTg8/s1600-h/finland+gdp+per+capita.png"img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 202px;" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/Sli5_RB6ZOI/AAAAAAAAOoI/5-x-QudwTg8/s400/finland+gdp+per+capita.png" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5357236253311526114" //abr /br /So the real reason is why (given some sort of loose convergence expectation) this gap is not being closed. There can be several explanations. One may be differences in institutional quality (education systems, for example), another might be the impact of euro membership: it could be, for example, that, as OECD economists Jorgen Elmeskov and Romain Duval argued in a suggestive paper (a href="http://www.ecb.int/events/pdf/conferences/emu/sessionIV_Elmeskov_Duval_Handout.pdf"Structural reforms in product and labour markets/a) presented at the 2005 ECB conference "What effects is EMU having on the euro area and its member countries?", that membership has up to now slowed down rather than accelerating the reform process. Thirdly, the issue could be differential demographics. Few economists seem willing to investigate this possibility in any depth, despite mounting evidence that it may be important. /ppOne demographic indicator that springs to mind immediately when I think about these two countries is the differential in life expectancy. Swedish males live on average around 3 years longer than Finnish males (see below). Now this may be important, although no one has started to calibrate this effect yet. The economic intuition for the importance would be, think of investment in a machine (physical capital), then obviously the value of the investment is greater (other things being equal) if the machine keeps running five years longer. br /br /a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SljmWSWJ5tI/AAAAAAAAOoY/W3cxkKuwyjQ/s1600-h/finaland+exit+from+labour+force.png"img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 205px;" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SljmWSWJ5tI/AAAAAAAAOoY/W3cxkKuwyjQ/s400/finaland+exit+from+labour+force.png" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5357285027313477330" //abr /br /Things cannot be that much different with human capital. The education and on the job training costs are similar, but the person is able to work three years less. Is it mere coincidence that labour market exit at 61 is so typical if the health outlook is worse? Here are the relative labour force participation rates for me between 55 and 65. It is my contention that this alone accounts for a substantial part of the GDP per capita difference between the two countries. br /br /a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/Sli_SXbm9PI/AAAAAAAAOoQ/xHW5qWedioE/s1600-h/finland+55+participation+rate.png"img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 203px;" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/Sli_SXbm9PI/AAAAAAAAOoQ/xHW5qWedioE/s400/finland+55+participation+rate.png" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5357242079005570290" //abr /br /But the solution to this problem is not an easy one, and the OECD and others really need to think much more seriously about this phenomenon when they indisciminately propose raising higher-age participation rates across the board as a solution to the declining workforces problem./ppWhat is involved here is a complex mix of health provision, lifestyle and genetic differences, and any response needs to take account of all of these. br /br //pa href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SleYXq0bsEI/AAAAAAAAOk0/8GejKUSpKc8/s1600-h/finland+life+expectancy.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 202px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5356917814179115074" border="0" alt="" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SleYXq0bsEI/AAAAAAAAOk0/8GejKUSpKc8/s400/finland+life+expectancy.png" //abr /br /Raising the health and life expectancy of the Finnish population would be one sure way to raising GDP per capita, another way (in the longer term) would be raising fertility back up to replacement levels, and a third path would be extending the younger labour force by encouraging immigration  (which interestingly has been a href="http://www.helsinkitimes.fi/htimes/domestic-news/general/7019-immigration-to-finland-at-record-levels.html"on the rise in the Helsinki area in recent months/a, although if many of the newcomers simply arrive from equally affected Estonia this is nothing more than moving the deckchairs around). Whichever way you look at it though, in both the short and longer term the deterioration in Finland's trade surplus needs to be addressed. If it isn't the outcome will not be a pleasant sight.div class="blogger-post-footer"img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/8991369883287712098-6253074658246427134?l=globaleconomydoesmatter.blogspot.com'//div]]></description>
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		<title>Guess What Really Brought Us out of the Great Depression?</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/market-commentary/guess-what-really-brought-us-out-of-the-great-depression/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/market-commentary/guess-what-really-brought-us-out-of-the-great-depression/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 14 Jul 2009 05:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Justice Litle Editorial Director Taipan Publishing Group</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[Does ldquo;stimulusrdquo; really work? Does quantitative easing  work? The historical record suggests not. So what brought us out of the Great  Depression? The answer might surprise, even though it...div class="feedflare"
a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=PGC5MSdUXx4:CLA9nbjHxmM:yIl2AUoC8zA"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?d=yIl2AUoC8zA" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=PGC5MSdUXx4:CLA9nbjHxmM:V_sGLiPBpWU"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?i=PGC5MSdUXx4:CLA9nbjHxmM:V_sGLiPBpWU" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=PGC5MSdUXx4:CLA9nbjHxmM:F7zBnMyn0Lo"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?i=PGC5MSdUXx4:CLA9nbjHxmM:F7zBnMyn0Lo" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=PGC5MSdUXx4:CLA9nbjHxmM:wd9GD17jvC4"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?d=wd9GD17jvC4" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.taipanpublishinggroup.com/~ff/taipan?a=PGC5MSdUXx4:CLA9nbjHxmM:l6gmwiTKsz0"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/taipan?d=l6gmwiTKsz0" border="0"/img/a
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		<title>West continues to fall, East continues to Rise</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/gold-markets/west-continues-to-fall-east-continues-to-rise/</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 13 Jul 2009 19:28:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Alex Stanczyk</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[Honolulu, Hawaii
July 13th, 2009AD
Here is a little global economy roundup:
Many still think the economy is on the verge of recovery. While the rest of the developing world continues to steam ahead plowing through obstacles, the western world continues to spiral downward. This still does not take into consideration ALT-A and ARM loan resets through 2011.
July [...]div class="feedflare"
a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=Rfi3i1BgIRQ:WOyqIMH_HWY:yIl2AUoC8zA"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?d=yIl2AUoC8zA" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=Rfi3i1BgIRQ:WOyqIMH_HWY:F7zBnMyn0Lo"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?i=Rfi3i1BgIRQ:WOyqIMH_HWY:F7zBnMyn0Lo" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=Rfi3i1BgIRQ:WOyqIMH_HWY:7Q72WNTAKBA"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?d=7Q72WNTAKBA" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=Rfi3i1BgIRQ:WOyqIMH_HWY:V_sGLiPBpWU"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?i=Rfi3i1BgIRQ:WOyqIMH_HWY:V_sGLiPBpWU" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=Rfi3i1BgIRQ:WOyqIMH_HWY:qj6IDK7rITs"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?d=qj6IDK7rITs" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=Rfi3i1BgIRQ:WOyqIMH_HWY:l6gmwiTKsz0"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?d=l6gmwiTKsz0" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=Rfi3i1BgIRQ:WOyqIMH_HWY:gIN9vFwOqvQ"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?i=Rfi3i1BgIRQ:WOyqIMH_HWY:gIN9vFwOqvQ" border="0"/img/a
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		<title>The IMF/EU Commission Rift On Latvia Seems To Be Deepening</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/market-commentary/the-imfeu-commission-rift-on-latvia-seems-to-be-deepening/</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 13 Jul 2009 19:02:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Edward Hugh</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[by Edward Hugh: Barcelonabr /br /br /Two weeks ago a href="http://fistfulofeuros.net/afoe/economics-country-briefings/are-the-imf-and-the-ecb-lining-up-against-the-eu-commission-over-latvia/"I drew attention to a revealing press conference given by IMF First Deputy Managing Director John Lipsky and European Central Bank governing council member Christian Noyer/a where it seemed a rather different posture was being taken on the Latvian question than that which is being transmitted from Brussels. Then a href="http://fistfulofeuros.net/afoe/the-european-union/is-the-latvia-intervention-team-assembling/"P O'Neill found a message on Twitter/a which suggested the topic of the Latvian budget had been unexpectedly added to the EcoFin agenda.br /br /Today a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601095amp;sid=aPlxlddcc8lI"Bloomberg report/a that Barclays Capital’s chief economist for emerging Europe Christian Keller thinks that the IMF's posture of continuing to withhold funds even after the approval of the spending cuts “signaled that the rift between the IMF and EU has widened” .br /br /Now I don't want to see connections were there are none, but it is a coincidence that Christian Keller works for the same Barclays capital whose Head of Emerging Markets Strategy Eduardo Levy-Yeyati recently published a lengthy analysis on the influential a href="http://www.voxeu.org/"Is Latvia the new Argentina?/a - where he argued that: "The strategy of engineering an “internal” depreciation under a peg in Latvia (via contractionary fiscal policy, wage cuts and price deflation) implicit in the IMF program is proving too painful, if not self-defeating as in the 2001 collapse of Argentina’s currency board"br /br /Now the publication of this article was interesting since Eduardo Levy-Yayati is not just any old economist. Previous to joining Barclays Capital, as his Voxeu biography informs us, he wasbr /br /blockquote"a Senior Financial Sector Advisor for Latin America amp; the Caribbean at The World Bank. Previously, a Senior Research Associate at the Inter-American Development Bank, the Director of Monetary and Financial Policies and Chief Economist for the Central Bank of Argentina, and the Director of the Center for Financial Research and Professor of Economics and Finance at Universidad Torcuato Di Tella. He has also worked as consultant for the IMF, the World Bank, the Inter-American Development Bank, the Japan Bank for International Cooperation, among many public and private institutions. His research on emerging markets banking and finance has been published extensively in top international economic journals. "/blockquotebr /br /That is, Señor Levy-Yayati is an extremely experienced economist, an old Argentina hand, and enjoys some considerable influence over emerging markets issues in Washington. So was the appearance of the article in Voxeu at the end of June totally coincidental? He certainly is experienced enough to know what he is doing in these matters. And was it also a coincidence that only a week later former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund Ken Rogoff - surely another person who knows perfectly well what he is doing - gave an interview where he said that "Latvia should devalue the lats to avoid a worsening of its economic crisis" and that "the IMF made the wrong decision when it allowed Latvia to keep its currency peg"?br /br /The IMF cannot say what it really thinks for obvious reasons, but could we construe Levy-Yayati and Rogoff as thinking out loud on the funds behalf?br /br /The clash between the two institutions (should such a clash exist) derives from “ideological differences” according to Keller. "The IMF is focused on economic questions such as the sustainability of the currency peg, the use of economic stimulus or the idea of fast-track euro adoption......The EU’s main concern is political, such as euro-adoption rules and the implementation of convergence programs".br /br /This all rings pretty true, and it rings even truer when you note that the Latvian Prime Minister Valdis Dombrovskis said only last week that the country "may not need the IMF share of the financing". As Keller says, “The Latvia program has become a headache for the IMF.”br /br /strongPostscript/strongbr /br /Latvian foreign trade was down again in May, at 618.3 mln lats it was 4.2% (or 27.1 mln lats) lower than it was in April (no green shoot here) and 38.5% (or 387.6 mln lats) down on May last year, according to provisional data of Latvian Statistics Office. May exports were down 30.1% over May 2008, while imports were down an incredible 43.7%. Over the January – May period foreign trade was down by 35.4% on the same period in 2008. Exports were down by 27.7% and imports by 39.9%.br /br /a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/Sltgq-Ib_lI/AAAAAAAAOpg/wyIXO8xFEwM/s1600-h/Latvia+exports+two.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 259px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5357982473036496466" border="0" alt="" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/Sltgq-Ib_lI/AAAAAAAAOpg/wyIXO8xFEwM/s400/Latvia+exports+two.png" //abr /br /a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SltgmlA5XhI/AAAAAAAAOpY/-umZSDi1zp4/s1600-h/Latvia+exports+one%2B.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 261px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5357982397574503954" border="0" alt="" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SltgmlA5XhI/AAAAAAAAOpY/-umZSDi1zp4/s400/Latvia+exports+one%2B.png" //abr /br /br /Industrial output fell back again in May over April, by 0.4% on a seasonally adjusted basis according to the statistics office. Year on year it was down 19.3%.br /br /a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SltvnII6qsI/AAAAAAAAOqA/omanlR_7Az0/s1600-h/Latvia+IP+index.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 225px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5357998899677801154" border="0" alt="" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SltvnII6qsI/AAAAAAAAOqA/omanlR_7Az0/s400/Latvia+IP+index.png" //abr /br /a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/Sltv_lPcsEI/AAAAAAAAOqI/RdTc4KOGK4Q/s1600-h/latvia+IP+two.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 261px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5357999319806685250" border="0" alt="" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/Sltv_lPcsEI/AAAAAAAAOqI/RdTc4KOGK4Q/s400/latvia+IP+two.png" //abr /br /And domestic demand continues to weaken. Retail sales were down 0.48% in May over April, and 24.14% year on year, according to Eurostat data.br /br /a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SltwhfIDGKI/AAAAAAAAOqY/rFFv5VH3VyQ/s1600-h/latvia+retail+sales+two.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 224px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5357999902280587426" border="0" alt="" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SltwhfIDGKI/AAAAAAAAOqY/rFFv5VH3VyQ/s400/latvia+retail+sales+two.png" //abr /br /a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SltwdFZG21I/AAAAAAAAOqQ/08yilkcg3FU/s1600-h/latvia+retail+sales+one.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 222px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5357999826653338450" border="0" alt="" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SltwdFZG21I/AAAAAAAAOqQ/08yilkcg3FU/s400/latvia+retail+sales+one.png" //abr /br /Latvia’s inflation rate fell to 3.4 percent in June, the lowest annual rate since October 2003, from 4.7 percent in May. Prices were down 0.5% on the month, but this is way too slow for the kind of internal devaluation process which is underway. At this rate the loss of GDP will be truly massive before the internal currency correction has taken place.br /br /There were 206,000 people unemployed in Latvia in May, or 16.3 percent of the labour force, according to the latest Eurostat data. This is slightly down on earlier data, but since these results are survey based, and such rapid changes make it difficult to apply such methodologies, I don't think we need suspect any kind of "foul play". The rise is dramatic enough as it is, as can be seen in the chart below. This makes me wonder were we will be by mid 2010.br /br /a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SlttUNAoEFI/AAAAAAAAOp4/I7QEyx9WD9E/s1600-h/latvia+unemployment+rate.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 225px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5357996375544434770" border="0" alt="" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SlttUNAoEFI/AAAAAAAAOp4/I7QEyx9WD9E/s400/latvia+unemployment+rate.png" //abr /br /br /One area where the central bank has had some success has been in getting overnight interbank lending rates down again, and the overnight Rigibor is now back around 3% (13 July), but the 12 month rates are still very high (20.2% 13 July) which does suggest that while market participants are fairly sure the peg is safe in the short term, they are not at all convinced about what is going to happen in the longer term. And in this they seem to be making a valid judgement, since this is the situation at the time of writing.br /br /br /a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/Slt1vzwtO0I/AAAAAAAAOqo/njxxtvdRdgc/s1600-h/rigibor+one.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 260px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5358005645896137538" border="0" alt="" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/Slt1vzwtO0I/AAAAAAAAOqo/njxxtvdRdgc/s400/rigibor+one.png" //abr /br /a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/Slt1rabiREI/AAAAAAAAOqg/uElFTygqBFg/s1600-h/rigibor+two.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 259px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5358005570376975426" border="0" alt="" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/Slt1rabiREI/AAAAAAAAOqg/uElFTygqBFg/s400/rigibor+two.png" //abr /br /Meatime Latvia's natality continues to suffer under the weight of the crisis, there were 1750 live births in May, down 15.3% on May 2008. Thus, not only are we playing with the countries short term future here, we are also putting the possibility of having a long term one at risk.br /br /a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/Slt6ZEB-cFI/AAAAAAAAOqw/SZkdTONEXkk/s1600-h/latvia+births.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 220px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5358010752684683346" border="0" alt="" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/Slt6ZEB-cFI/AAAAAAAAOqw/SZkdTONEXkk/s400/latvia+births.png" //abr /br /br /strongWhere Is The Endgame?/strongbr /br /When it comes to the short term dynamics of the looming currency crisis in Emerging Europe, one of the Baltic Three, probably Latvia, will most likely be the first to concede its peg, as Eduardo Levy-Yeyati says this is just too painful, and the loss of GDP which is taking place while the politicians are dithering is fearful.  br /br /But when Latvia does leave its peg, then others are almost bound to follow. Everything depends on whether the EU Commission and the IMF are proactive or limit themselves to a mere reactive, problem-containment role. If the Latvian currency realignment is done in an organised and systematic fashion, then it may, even at this late date, be a containable process. For this to happen the EU Commission have to stop playing with the politics of the situation, realise that the Maastricht criteria were not written in tablets of stone, and start to formulate a reasonable exit stratgey for all the Eastern members of the EU. They need, that is, to start thinking practical economics, the way the IMF now seem to be doing. The macro economics of this was always clear and straightforward.br /br /But if the Latvian situation is simply left to fester, and the country falls into the grip of a growing political anarchy, then containment will be much more difficult, since panic will more than likely set in. p/ppA similar situation pertains in Bulgaria (a href="http://globaleconomydoesmatter.blogspot.com/2009/07/cliff-hanging-in-bulgaria.html"see my latest post on Bulgaria/a, since the similatities are evident). Absent a Latvian devaluation, it is not unthinkable that the Lev peg may be maintained in Bulgaria for another year or so. But if the Bulgarian authorities do go down this road, then we face the severe risk of a a further raggedy ending, since the problem is not one of sustaining the peg, but of restoring competitiveness and economic growth, and this is much more difficult without a formal devaluation. And if Bulgaria does go hurtling off that cliff on which it is currently perched, then just be damn careful it doesn't drag half of South Eastern Europe careering after it. The EU Commission need to begin to resolve this mess, and the need to begin now!div class="blogger-post-footer"img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/8991369883287712098-2881023355794762448?l=globaleconomydoesmatter.blogspot.com'//div]]></description>
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		<title>Cliff Hanging In Bulgaria</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/market-commentary/cliff-hanging-in-bulgaria/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/market-commentary/cliff-hanging-in-bulgaria/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 12 Jul 2009 18:12:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Edward Hugh</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[by Edward Hugh: Barcelonabr /br /br /pa href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SlmdGD2bh-I/AAAAAAAAOoo/P8vnyB3RTno/s1600-h/bulgaria+population.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 258px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5357485959172294626" border="0" alt="" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SlmdGD2bh-I/AAAAAAAAOoo/P8vnyB3RTno/s400/bulgaria+population.png" //abr /br /br /The International Monetary Fund this week forecast the recession in Bulgaria would be deeper than it previously predicted. Such a decision should come as no surprise to anyone, since the country's economic dynamics in both the short and long term look extremely unstable, and Bulgaria is now almost certainly headed towards a series of more or less hair-raising roller-coaster rides. Even the briefest of glances at the population chart above should lead even the most sceptical among us to stop and think a little about the possible economic implications of such an appauling demographic outlook. As can be seen, the opening to the west brought a sharp outflow of people in the late 1980s (mainly ethnic Turks), but the important thing to note is that the decline has continued almost continuously ever since. That is, the decline was not a one-off demographic "shock", but rather it has become a way of life (or, if you prefer, of death, since deaths constantly outnumber births, even before you consider emigration). And it is this "terminal style" dynamic which virtually guarantess that the coming ride will be a bumpy one, not only in the short term (guaranteed by the size of the current account deficit - 25% - which Bulgaria needs to correct) but in the longer term, since according to any known growth theory there is simply no way any country can sustain headline GDP expansion with potential labour force and population contractions of this magnitude.br /br /strongSharp Recession in 2009/strongbr /br /Well, to come down to earth with a bump, let's now get into the immediate situation, and down to the fact that the IMF now expects Bulgaria’s economy to shrink by 7 percent in 2009 (previously they were forecasting a 3.5 percent contraction). They also upped (or downed) their 2010 outlook to an anticipated 2.5 percent contraction, from an earlier 1 percent one, although such an adjustment at this point this is now better than mere guesswork. The point is we are in for a severe contraction, and it isn't going to be any laughing matter.br /br /The IMF revision also follows last weeks announcement that it now expects a “sluggish” global economic recovery and its 2009 forecast reduction for central and eastern European, which went to a 5 percent contraction from an earlier 3.7 percent one.br /br /The heart of the Bulgarian problem at the moment stems from the need to correct a current account deficit which reached 25pc of GDP in 2008, the highest of the 80 emerging markets around the world tracked by Fitch Ratings. Gross external debt reached 102 percent of GDP.br /br /br /a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SlicspjK3sI/AAAAAAAAOms/fOshCXR7_Pc/s1600-h/bulgaria+CA+deficit.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 225px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5357204047638748866" border="0" alt="" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SlicspjK3sI/AAAAAAAAOms/fOshCXR7_Pc/s400/bulgaria+CA+deficit.png" //abr /br /Bulgaria faces a drastic process of external adjustment process which with the shadow of the current international economic crisis hanging over it will surely be far from painless. Vulnerabilities accumulated during the boom period - a marked rise in private sector external, debt along with a rapid increase in credit growth and widespread FX-denominated borrowing - will make demonstrating unwavering commitment to the currency board arrangement very hard work indeed. Neil Shearing at Capital Economics estimates Bulgaria’s external financing needs at $25 billion this year, including the current-account deficit, short-term private foreign debt payments and interest payments. Foreign investment has fallen by almost half over the last year. Meanwhile private deb is up to just shy of 100 percent of gross domestic product, while the government budget revenue fell 6 percent in May.br /br /br /br /br /strongPlummeting GDP/strongbr /br /br /The Bulgarian economy contracted 3.5 percent in the first quarter when compared with the first quarter of 2008, according to the most recent figures from the National Statistics Office. The turnround is massive when you consider that the economy actually grew by 3.5 percent year on year in the last three months of 2008. In fact, GDP actually shrank by 5 percent from the fourth quarter (or at an annual 20% rate), when it contracted 1.6 percent, according to quarterly data which the statistics institute published for the first time. At this speed, I would say the IMF estimate is well short of the likely outcome, and we could well be looking at a double digit contraction.br /br /a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/Slic7GmLG1I/AAAAAAAAOm0/N4iMVFgiRlc/s1600-h/bulgaria+GDP.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 204px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5357204295954144082" border="0" alt="" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/Slic7GmLG1I/AAAAAAAAOm0/N4iMVFgiRlc/s400/bulgaria+GDP.png" //abr /br /Domestic consumption fell 5.4 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier after a 1.4 percent increase in the previous three months. Industrial output, which makes up 31 percent of total GDP, plummeted an annual 12.4 percent in the first quarter, after a 3.7 percent decline in the fourth quarter of 2009. Agricultural output, which accounts for 4 percent of the economy, dropped 4 percent after rising 26.7 percent in the fourth quarter. Services, which make up 65 percent of GDP, rose an annual 2.5 percent after a 3.8 percent gain in the previous quarter, although it is obvious that on a quarter over quarter basis even services are now contracting.br /br /First-quarter exports dropped 17.4 percent, while imports dropped 21 percent, meaning that the net trade impact on GDP was positive.br /br /br /strongShort Term Indicators/strongbr /br /br /Bulgarian industrial production continues to fall and was 22.1 percent from a year earlier in May - the eighth consecutive monthly decline. Output was also down month on month - by 1 percent over April. Retail sales dropped an annual 10.4 percent in May.br /br /a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SligIsPRYFI/AAAAAAAAOnY/_OEyFwlsvoc/s1600-h/Bulgaria+IP+two.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 233px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5357207827931816018" border="0" alt="" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SligIsPRYFI/AAAAAAAAOnY/_OEyFwlsvoc/s400/Bulgaria+IP+two.png" //abr /br /a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SligEPw0AII/AAAAAAAAOnM/_qRNyf4K5LQ/s1600-h/Bulgaria+IP+one.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 233px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5357207751568392322" border="0" alt="" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SligEPw0AII/AAAAAAAAOnM/_qRNyf4K5LQ/s400/Bulgaria+IP+one.png" //abr /Construction activity is also well down, falling by 9 percent in April, over April 2008 according to Eurostat data.br /br /br /br //ppa href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SlidIIljhlI/AAAAAAAAOm8/hKx_y2KaVg8/s1600-h/bulgaria+construction.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 205px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5357204519826720338" border="0" alt="" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SlidIIljhlI/AAAAAAAAOm8/hKx_y2KaVg8/s400/bulgaria+construction.png" //a Donestic demand is also in full retreat, as evidenced by retail sales which were down by 3% year on year in May, with the pace of decline steadily increasing.br /br /a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SlihALFeqTI/AAAAAAAAOn4/gigxC_4bnyU/s1600-h/bulgaria+retail+two.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 205px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5357208781105047858" border="0" alt="" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SlihALFeqTI/AAAAAAAAOn4/gigxC_4bnyU/s400/bulgaria+retail+two.png" //abr /br /a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/Slig7hHUosI/AAAAAAAAOnw/fl4GR8rKUXQ/s1600-h/bulgaria+retail+one.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 203px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5357208701119013570" border="0" alt="" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/Slig7hHUosI/AAAAAAAAOnw/fl4GR8rKUXQ/s400/bulgaria+retail+one.png" //a /pbr /pUnemployment is also rising, and hit 6.5% in May, according to the EU harmonised methodology. This is still comparatively low, but the rate will continue to rise sharply throughout the rest of this year.br /br //pa href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SlihKlHP8NI/AAAAAAAAOoA/eVZIKWwXHA0/s1600-h/bulgaria+unemployment.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 206px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5357208959890485458" border="0" alt="" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SlihKlHP8NI/AAAAAAAAOoA/eVZIKWwXHA0/s400/bulgaria+unemployment.png" //abr /br /br /With all this contraction going on, deflation must surely be looming for Bulgaria, but given the very high levels which inflation hit in the second half of last year, the annual rate of inflation continues in positive territory, and what we are seeing for the time being is rapid disinflation. Bulgaria's annual inflation rate fell to 3.9 percent in May from 4.8 percent in April. This is already the lowest level since July 2005, but there is surely much more to come, and consumer prices actually fell 0.3 percent month on month from April, and basically prices are little changed now over the start of the year. Bulgaria’s EU harmonized inflation rate, slowed to 3 percent in May from 3.8 percent in April. Using this measure prices stagnated on the month after gaining 0.5 percent in April.br /br /a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SliglbU_yXI/AAAAAAAAOng/lXI-H33wA7w/s1600-h/bulgaria+CPI.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 234px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5357208321608632690" border="0" alt="" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SliglbU_yXI/AAAAAAAAOng/lXI-H33wA7w/s400/bulgaria+CPI.png" //abr /br /More evidence of the deflationary pressures which are now about to arrive can be found in Bulgarian producer prices, which slumped the most in more than a decade in May, led by falling manufacturing, mining and quarrying costs. Factory-gate prices dropped 3.2 percent on an annual basis after a 2.3 percent decline in April. Producer prices rose 0.3 percent in the month, after April’s 0.8 percent decline.br /br /a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SligwV_fDqI/AAAAAAAAOno/WQNyTCjp7O0/s1600-h/bulgaria+PPI.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 232px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5357208509154791074" border="0" alt="" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SligwV_fDqI/AAAAAAAAOno/WQNyTCjp7O0/s400/bulgaria+PPI.png" //abr /Mining and quarrying producer prices slumped 13.4 percent in the year, reflecting a global decline in commodity prices, after a 15.7 percent drop in April. Metal producer prices plummeted 30.9 percent in year, after a 29 percent decline in the previous month.br /br /strongAnother Candidate For Internal Devaluation?/strongbr /br /Many supporters of the continuty of the current Currency Board Arrangement aregue that while the adjustment process is likely to be a bumpy one the CBA should be able to ride out the storm. I severely doubt this, for many of the reasons I have already offered in the case of the Baltic Countries (a href="http://latviaeconomy.blogspot.com/2008/12/why-imfs-decision-to-agree-lavian.html"here/a, a href="http://latviaeconomy.blogspot.com/2009/01/why-latvia-needs-to-devalue-soon-reply.html"here/a, a href="http://latviaeconomy.blogspot.com/2009/06/latvia-devalue-now-or-devalue-later.html"here/a, and a href="http://fistfulofeuros.net/afem/demographics/the-long-and-difficult-road-to-wage-cuts-as-an-alternative-to-devaluation/"here/a). Advocates for maintaining the peg argue the CBA is solidly based and able to weather adverse shocks, given the substantial buffers accumulated in the fiscal reserve account (around 15.0% of GDP) and the existence of large foreign reserves. Bulgaria’s "safety margin" - the sum of international reserves and the domestic currency component of the government’s fiscal reserve account — is estimated to be around 48% of GDP. This compares favourably with the rating agencies’ estimate of contingent liabilities from the financial sector under a reasonable worst case of around 30% of GDP (Standard and Poor’s, 2009). Also, as in the Baltics there is strong feeling of national identification with the CBA, which, coupled with the solid backing of all potential stakeholders (the EU and the IMF in particular), could be consided to offer a robust anchor to the CBA. But as with the Baltics, this kind of support may not be sufficient. Lets have a look at why not.br /br /The first and most obvious issue is the competitiveness one. Since Bulgaria's domestic construction, borrowing and spending bubble has now most definitely burst, and since government spending will be brought under a tight lease by the IMF (when they inevitably arrive) Bulgaria is now (like the Baltics) destined to live by exports (not only live, but also pay down some of the accumulated debt) and this is just where we hit a snag. If we look at the chart for Bulgaria's Real Effective Exchange Rate, then we will see that the country has experienced a significant drop in international competitiveness since the end of 2005, due largely to the high level of inflation the country has suffered.br /br /br /a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/Slm6W-Pt2PI/AAAAAAAAOow/7j7cMzQwP8Q/s1600-h/bulgaria+REER.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 233px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5357518135562721522" border="0" alt="" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/Slm6W-Pt2PI/AAAAAAAAOow/7j7cMzQwP8Q/s400/bulgaria+REER.png" //abr /br /Wage costs have risen significantly, and even as recently as the first quarter of this year total hourly labour cost rose by an annual 19.2%. The total hourly labour cost was up by 18.5% in industry, by 16.3% in services and by 32.2% in construction according to the statistics office.br /br /Basically then, in order to maintain the CBA Bulgaria will need what is called an "internal devaluation" (generalised reduction in prices and wages) of something like 20%, and seeing the pace at which this process has progressed in the Baltics, there are serious questions about whether Bulgaria would be able to implement such an internal devaluation (ecen with IMF support) before it gets caught in a vicious and painful spiral of falling GDP, falling tax income, falling government spending and even more rapidly falling GDP. Also, unlike the case of the Baltics, where the other Scandinavian countries have been able to render assistance to some extent, there is no obvious external supporter for the Bulgarian peg, and indeed the banking system in some of the countries involved in Bulgaria (Greece in particular) may be nothing like as strong or willing to maintain funding as their Swedish counterparts.br /br /Nonetheless the Bulgarian central bank rejects devaluation, saying the country’s reserves of $16 billion is sufficient to protect the peg, and favours an “internal devaluation” byforcing down domestic wages and prices, a process which will weaken domestic demand, trigger deflation and prolong recession in my view.br /br /Further, since there is no realistic prospect of Bulgarian euro membership in the short term, sticking to the peg for the sole purpose of quickly adopting the euro is a non sequitur, and there is no obvious exit strategy in sight.br /br /On the other hand, while a devaluation would obviously close the current account gap far less painfully, it would not help improve Bulgaria's external financing picture owing to adverse balance sheet effects and the likely rise in bankruptcies. But as has been amply discussed in the Baltic case, the difference with an internal devaluation does not exist from this point of view, and indeed the internal devaluation path may be even more damaging given that even those with loans in Lev would be affected.br /br /The current account will adjust in either case, since it has to, as financing is no longer viable, but this can either be done more painfully, or less painfully, and this is the real question. On the face of it Bulgaria’s incoming government, led by Sofia Mayor Boiko Borissov, advocates taking a loan from the IMF and the World Bank, and following in the footsteps of Latvia, Romania, Hungary, Serbia and Ukraine. The outgoing Socialist government ruled out any international loans. Negotiations are expected to start shortly after the new Cabinet takes office, with the loan itself would probably coming at the end of this year or during the first quarter of 2010, according to Bisser Boev, an economist in the election winning GERB party, in an interview last week.br /br /Neil Shearing, an emerging Europe economist at Capital Economics, goes further, and says Bulgaria’s next government faces a deepening recession and an “imminent” loan agreement with the International Monetary Fund. Basically I agree with Neil: the loan will come sooner rather than later, since having the "bad cop" of the IMF to wave is the only way the new government will be able to govern and implement the internal devaluation, which it is likely will be attempted for a time, even if a breaking of the peg is the most probable medium term outcome.br /br /Neil Shearing also forecasts Bulgaria’s economy will contract by 5 percent this year and 4 percent in 2010. My own feeling is that Neil is a bit to cautious here, and looking at the Q1 contraction and the pace of the decline since, we may well be in for a double figure (10 percent plus) 2009 contraction. Evidence from the Baltics would also tend to confirm this view: struggling to maintain a currency peg in this environment can be very costly in terms of lost GDP, since almost all the burden of current account correction falls on reducing imports, with exports falling rather than rising due to short term competitivity issues, especially when a number of other countries - Poland, Romania, the Czech Republic and Hungary may either devalue or see their currencies fall through sell-offs if they try to lower the currently punitive interest rate firewall (Hungary and Romania).br /br /br /The markets also appear to be far from convinced, and credit-default swaps linked to Bulgarian five-year bonds are up in the region of 400 basis points from the one year low of 290.4 hit on May 20, as perceptions of credit quality deteriorate.br /br /br /br /The coalition must work immediately to shore up revenue, which may fall as much as 3 billion lev ($2.1 billion) this year, said Boev, who was part of the team that mapped GERB’s economic policies and has been suggested by daily Dnevnik as the top candidate to run the Economy Ministry. “We’ll urgently revise the budget and cut what we can, postpone or freeze spending where we can,” said Boev. “This is our first task.” Bulgaria can only afford to co-finance infrastructure projects to bring roads and railways to EU requirements, Boev said. Restoring access to EU funds, which were frozen in 2008 over suspicions of graft, is crucial, he said. Bulgaria stands to receive 11 billion euros ($15.3 billion) in EU subsidies by 2013 to bring living standards closer to EU levels. Boev said the government would be “prepared” to cut investment spending and administrative costs, though it will leave social spending alone because reductions would generate additional unemployment.br /br /br /The IMF forecast a budget deficit of 1 percent of gross domestic product this year and urged the previous government to cut spending by 20 percent. Ousted Prime Minister Sergei Stanishev froze public sector wages less than a month before the elections.br /br /strongThe Risk Of Spillovers/strongbr /blockquote"The macro-situation in Bulgaria is dire," said Lars Christensen, emergingbr /markets chief at Danske Bank.Foreign investment has plummeted. The downturn inbr /the economy accelerated in May and June. While the new government is anbr /improvement, I would not rule out a drop in GDP of 15 to 20pc from peak tobr /trough," he said. My concern is that this is going to spill over into otherbr /countries. If you look at the main lenders, they are Greece, Hungary (OTP bank),br /and Italy."/blockquotepThe danger of a messy ending in Bulgaria adds another twist to the contagion worries which is facing Eastern and Southern Europe in the wake of the global crisis. A break in the Latvian peg (now, not in six months time) would be a blow, but it would, in my opinion, be containable. Estonia and Lithuania would have to correct in line, and pressure would come on Hungary and Romania, but if the Bulgarian peg goes, not in a managed devaluation but as part of a financial crisis inspired rout, which associated political chaos then the problems could rapidly escalate, immediately to four other countries in the west Balkans (Serbia, Croatia, Macedonia and Albania) and more indirectly down into an already weakend Southern Europe via the Greek and Italian banking systems. /ppBut, you might ask, aren’t the Balkan economies too small to be a potential problem for Europe? This is true, but we need to bear in mind that all four of these nations, despite being outside the European Union, are in fact effectively euroised economies - in all cases their currencies are pegged to the euro. In addition all the Balkan countries have very close economic ties with southern Europe via the channel of expatriate remittances. And the economic problems which currently exist in Greece and Italy only serve to further weaken the nations of the Western Balkans, due to the strong trade linkages that exist within the region. These impacts will in their turn work their way back negatively into Greece and Italy due to their role in funding the region. South Eastern Europe could therefore, be quite literally at risk of economic seize-up.br /br /And we should never forget that the political consequences of economic and currency reversals in the Western Balkans are potentially far greater than the Baltics simply because the former region has a population three times greater than that of the latter.br /br /To be precise, maintaining Balkan GDP involves significant currency corrections. These corrections can take place by formal devaluations, or via the so-called "internal devaluation" process. The slower the Balkan currencies correct, the greater the depth and length of the recession. Basically, under these circumstances, I think that the incentive to devalue will, in the end, be too great. The immediate impact of such devlaluations will be most painful for countries like Croatia, which has a large proportion of euro-denominated loans.br /br /When it comes to the short term dynamics of the looming currency crisis in Emerging Europe, one of the Baltic Three, probably Latvia, will be first to concede its peg. When it does others are almost bound to follow. Everything depends on whether the EU Commission and the IMF are proactive or limit themselves to a mere reactive, problem containment role. If the Latvian currency realignment is done in an organised and systematic fashion, then it may, even at this late date, be a containable process. If the situation is left to fester, and the country falls into the grip of a growing political anarchy, then containment will be much more difficult, since panic will more than likely set in./ppA similar situation pertains in Bulgaria. Absent a Latvian devaluation, it is not unthinkable that the Lev peg may be maintained for another year or so. But if the authorities do go down this road, then we face the severe risk of a raggedy ending, since the problem is not one of sustaining the peg, but of restoring competitiveness and economic growth, and this is much more difficult without a formal devaluation. And if Bulgaria goes hurtling off that cliff on which it is currently perched, then just be damn careful it doesn't drag half of South Eastern Europe careering after it./pdiv class="blogger-post-footer"img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/8991369883287712098-6963277081178645008?l=globaleconomydoesmatter.blogspot.com'//div]]></description>
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		<title>Debt Burden Quickens Power Shift as G-8 Loses Clout</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/gold-markets/debt-burden-quickens-power-shift-as-g-8-loses-clout/</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 09 Jul 2009 18:43:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Alex Stanczyk</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[Alex#8217;s Notes: The borrower becomes servant to the lender.
I dont see any reason this wouldnt also hold true for nations.
By James G. Neuger
July 7 (Bloomberg) #8212; The world’s most affluent nations will take decades to work off the biggest buildup in debt since World War II. The political costs may be permanent, laid bare at [...]div class="feedflare"
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		<title>NAT GAS Act Introduced in Senate</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-in-energy-markets/nat-gas-act-introduced-in-senate/</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 09 Jul 2009 14:34:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Michael E. Brisky</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Energy Markets]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[natural gas vehicle projects/li liAllows]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[natural gas vehicles:br /blockquote liFor light-duty vehicle]]></category>
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		<description><![CDATA[Some interesting news as Boone Pickens continues to put pressure on Washington to come up with an energy plan.  a href="http://www.pickensplan.com/news/2009/07/08/nat-gas-bill-introduced-in-the-us-senate/"Legislation is now being discussed/a about a bill to promote use of vehicles that run on cleaner burning natural gas.br /br /ulliU.S. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) and Senators Orrin Hatch (R-UT) and Robert Menendez (D-NJ) were joined today by energy-independence advocate T. Boone Pickens to tout new legislation that would boost vehicles that run on clean natural gas. The NAT GAS Act, introduced today by Menendez and co-sponsored by Reid and Hatch, would extend and increase tax credits for natural gas vehicles and refueling./li/ulpspan style="text-decoration: underline;"strongBackground on legislation/strong/span /p div class="entry"liExpands and modify the alternative fueled vehicle and refueling property tax credits as follows:/li blockquote liMakes all dedicated natural gas-fueled vehicles eligible for a credit equal to 80% of the vehicle’s incremental cost. Only some dedicated natural gas vehicles currently can qualify for an 80% federal tax credit /li liMakes all bi-fuel natural gas-fueled vehicles eligible for a credit equal to 50% of the vehicle’s incremental cost. This is the first time bi-fuel vehicles would be eligible for a federal tax credit /li liIncrease the allowable incremental cost limits to more accurately reflect the cost of producing or converting natural gas vehicles:br /blockquote liFor light-duty vehicle, the purchase tax credit cap would be increased by to $12,500 (currently $5,000) /li liFor all other vehicle weight classes, the purchase tax credit cap would be doubled/li /blockquote /li liIncreases the refueling property tax credit from $50,000 to $100,000 per station/li /blockquote liAllows the natural gas vehicle and natural gas fueling infrastructure credits to be transferred by the taxpayer back to the seller or to the lessor/li liAllows state and local governmental entities to issue tax exempt bonds in order to finance natural gas vehicle projects/li liAllows 100% of the cost of a natural gas vehicle manufacturing facility that is placed in service before January 1, 2015 to be expensed and to be treated as a deduction in the taxable year in which the facility was placed in service. This decreases to 50% after December 31, 2014 and is phased out by January 1, 2020/li liRequires that when complying with mandatory federal fleet alternative fuel vehicle purchase requirements, federal agencies shall purchase dedicated alternative fuel vehicles unless the agency can show that alternative fuel is unavailable or that purchasing such vehicles would be impractical/li liProvides for grants for light- and heavy-duty natural gas engine development/li/divbr /br /The largest hurdle to natural gas vehicles is the infrastructure.  If people are going to drive natural gas vehicles, they need to be able to re-fuel them.  But fleet vehicles and trucks, which represent a large amount of vehicles on the road, can be the first to change.  They drive similar routes in a predictable fashion, which is much easier to know where and when to re-fuel.br /br /There are a couple of companies working on this as well.  Pickens' own Clean Energy Fuels Corp. (a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=clne"CLNE/a) is one, and Fuel Systems Solutions Inc. (a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=fsysamp;="FSYS/a) is another.  Clean energy has been steadily getting contracts for fleet vehicles from various municipalities and companies.  Fuel Systems is heavily into components for alternative fuel vehicles, and was on fire last summer when gas prices spiked.br /br /These stocks are still largely tied to fuel prices, but the NAT GAS act will likely get the ball rolling for these companies to be less dependent on gas.br /br /Disclosure: Nonebr /br /Here are the charts:br /a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_VQGtBvsQTCg/SlYCM7Es4EI/AAAAAAAAA5c/NOKAEtL7rxI/s1600-h/clne.png"img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 382px; height: 400px;" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_VQGtBvsQTCg/SlYCM7Es4EI/AAAAAAAAA5c/NOKAEtL7rxI/s400/clne.png" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5356471227842879554" border="0" //aa onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_VQGtBvsQTCg/SlYCYeURZSI/AAAAAAAAA5k/WvJMLgIhdgc/s1600-h/fsys.png"img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 382px; height: 400px;" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_VQGtBvsQTCg/SlYCYeURZSI/AAAAAAAAA5k/WvJMLgIhdgc/s400/fsys.png" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5356471426281989410" border="0" //adiv class="blogger-post-footer"img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/819581243324579563-7706485927996058189?l=briskycapital.blogspot.com'//div]]></description>
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		<title>How To Dine In High Style On Shriveled Brown Sprouts</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/market-commentary/how-to-dine-in-high-style-on-shriveled-brown-sprouts/</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 09 Jul 2009 05:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Taipan Publishing Group</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[How to Make 191% Gains as Wall Street Swallows a Poison Pill – Again!

Dear Friends,

I could start out today’s column by telling you all about how official unemployment is at a 26-year high at 9.5%....div class="feedflare"
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		<title>Chile&#8217;s Economy &#8211; Better Than the Rest?</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-in-chile/chiles-economy-better-than-the-rest-2/</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 06 Jul 2009 10:05:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Claus Vistesen</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[p style="text-align: left;"By Claus Vistesen: Copenhagenbr //pp style="text-align: left;"(please click on pictures for better viewing)br //pp style="text-align: left;"br //pp style="text-align: center;""Being a Keynesian means being a Keynesian in emboth/em the good and bad times."/p p style="text-align: center;"emAndres Velasco (Finance Minister in Chile) [1]/em/p pbr //ppIt has been a while since I last had a thorough look at Chile (a href="http://chileeconomy.blogspot.com/2008/10/chiles-economy-in-perspective-october.html"here/a and a href="http://chileeconomy.blogspot.com/2008/08/economic-growth-in-chile.html"here/a); more specifically, the last time I had Chile under the loop was in October 2008 and thus around the time when the global economy was about to enter two quarters (Q4-08 and Q1-09) of absolute horror. Whether we are past the worst at this point in time is debatable and I am, personally, skeptical with regards the narrative of second derivatives and green shoots, but it is hard to deny that it does represent a narrative and a fairly strong one too. In this context I thought it would be interesting to have a look at Chile, how it has faired and how we can expect it to fair in the immediate future./p pIt will immediately become clear as we move forward through the data that Chile is a bit unique both in a global and most definitely so in a Latin American context. In this sense, and if not for any other reason, the following should confirm that although the global economy is in the midst of the worst crisis since the 1930s, there are some economies who are better positioned than others. In order to pin down some fix points from which to begin this analysis, it is interesting to go back to Q4-2008 and a href="http://www.morganstanley.co.uk/views/gef/archive/2008/20081125-Tue.html"the note by Morgan Stanley analyst Luis Arcantales/a who pointed out that as the global economy was about to slide, it was Chile's time to shine. This analysis was echoed in a href="http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=13145570"the Economist's small article about Chile/a in which it is argued that Chile is cashing in the fruits of rigour./p pThe question is then; is this true? The analysis which follows supports this positive view on Chile and I thought it would be fair, at the offset, to identify the two underlying mechanisms for this position./p pFirst of all, Chile has been saving for a rainy day and especially in the context of the copper windfall enjoyed in the past years, Chile have been acting with utmost prudence. Coupled with a big pool of sovereign assets/wealth tucked away in main state investment vehicles (SWF) this provides Chile with an enviable and essentially remarkably positive fiscal profile going into the crisis. The most important aspect of this strategy of prudence has been the joint commitment across political leaderships to maintain a structural fiscal surplus of 0.5% of GDP in order avoid the copper windfall from pushing Chile into a variant of the Dutch disease as well as of course as to lock in savings for rainy day. Between 1996 and 2006, Chile’s public balance averaged 1.5% of GDP and coupled with a substantial amount of the copper windfall parked in the SWF Economic amp; Social Stabilization Fund (FEES) it has granted Chile with a net debt position of -11% (i.e. a net credit position of 11%)./p pIn addition to the story about the timely management of the Copper windfall, a href="http://clausvistesen.squarespace.com/alphasources-blog/2008/8/27/economic-growth-in-chile.html"I have also emphasised the demographics of Chile/aand in particular the fact that the key working age brackets are still growing as a percentage of total population. In many ways, Chile is now moving on the outskirts of the so-called demographic dividend with the age group 25-64 still growing as a percentage of total population whereas the age group 25-44 is declining. It is an empirical fact that such favorable demographic momentum has a strong effect on macroeconomic performance; see e.g. a href="http://www.nber.org/papers/w13221"Bloom et. al 2007/a and a href="http://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/6268.html"Bloom and Williamson 1998/a./p pHowever, with fertility coming in at replacement levels in these very years Chile now stands on the boundaries of the much debated second demographic transition (SDT) and it will be interesting to see just how Chile enters this second leg of the demographic transition (if at all). It is important to point out that the SDT is far from an inevitable process, but in it the light of the regularity with which life expectancy has continued to increased at the same time as fertility has steadily moved below replacement levels in one country after another, it is difficult to imagine that Chile won't also enter a new stage in its demographic transition. However, and whatever happens in Chile as we move forward it does not change the fact that Chile has the demographic winds blowing firmly in the back at the moment even if the direction is slowly changing. The key will naturally be the extent to which Chile manages what comes next in terms of demographic evolutions./p p /p pstrongTouched, but not Harmed? /strong/p pEven with this set of formidable fundamentals the global economic crisis has not left Chile untouched. On a quarterly basis the third quarter of 2008 marks the last quarter in which Chile grew at the rates its citizens and policy makers have been used to over the course of the years of abundance leading up to the crisis. Since Q3-2005 the average growth rate of Chile's output measured by GDP was a remarkable 4.5% q-o-q, a figure which clocked in at a puny 0.2% in Q4-2008 and then on to a full blown contraction of 2.1% q-o-q in Q1-2009. In fact on an annual basis, Chile has observed negative growth rates since Q3-2008./p p style="text-align: center;"span class="full-image-float-right ssNonEditable"spana href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_vhPkPUN2aT8/Sk9frlcTVXI/AAAAAAAABMI/5OuJaeKExdA/s1600-h/GDP+yoy.JPG"img src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_vhPkPUN2aT8/Sk9frlcTVXI/AAAAAAAABMI/5OuJaeKExdA/s320/GDP+yoy.JPG?__SQUARESPACE_CACHEVERSION=1246715980299" alt="" //a/span/spanspan class="full-image-float-right ssNonEditable"spana href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_vhPkPUN2aT8/Sk9frSZ70zI/AAAAAAAABMA/45sDZ7PaqAs/s1600-h/GDP+qoq.JPG"img src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_vhPkPUN2aT8/Sk9frSZ70zI/AAAAAAAABMA/45sDZ7PaqAs/s320/GDP+qoq.JPG?__SQUARESPACE_CACHEVERSION=1246716002320" alt="" //a/span/span/p pThe central bank expects GDP for 2009 to hover around the 0% mark with -0.75% as a low point and the 0.25% as the corresponding best case scenario. This relatively bleak figure is produced by the expectation that domestic demand will contract at a rate of 4.7% of which the expected decline in gross capital formation of -14.3% which contrasts with a 19.5% expansion in 2008./p pThis headline forecast naturally calls for all kinds questions not least the impending question, as it is being asked around the world, about the extent to which Chile will ever recover to observe the growth rates it did before the global crisis. Personally, I believe that most analysts would agree on the script for 2009 as a horrible year and the question now becomes; will 2010 be the year of recovery or will it be the year of disappointment as the boost from 2009's stimulus packages wane and it becomes clear that any kind of second leg with respect to a sustained pickup in global growth will be very tepid. I tend to lean towards the latter account, but it is also clear that the extent to which the global economy is able to limp forward, it will be economies such as Chile who will be doing a lot of the heavy lifting./p pThis particular view motivates a lot of what follows./p p /p pstrongA Closer Look at Trends in Output and Activity/strong/p pOne way in which to differentiate the GDP measures fielded above is to have a look at GDP divided onto sectors to see how ouput in Chile has evolved over an array of activities as well as to compare this to some form of base value. I have chosen to focus the attention on cobber, manufacturing, construction, housing property, and financial services./p p style="text-align: center;"span class="full-image-float-right ssNonEditable"spana href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_vhPkPUN2aT8/Sk9fSt6DVUI/AAAAAAAABL4/pM7P69KvItg/s1600-h/GDP+by+sector.JPG"img src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_vhPkPUN2aT8/Sk9fSt6DVUI/AAAAAAAABL4/pM7P69KvItg/s320/GDP+by+sector.JPG?__SQUARESPACE_CACHEVERSION=1246716081731" alt="" //a/span/span/p pIn the graph to the right the base value 100 is equal to the mean value of output over 4 quarters in 2003 measured at constant 2003 prices. For an economist with an inclination to base his analysis on underlying demographic parameters one thing immediately stands out. Indices for construction and housing property have hardly budged. This is interesting since the main driving force across of the real economic collapse across the globe is, in the case of many other economies, precisely driven by a collapse in these sectors. Now, whether this is because Chile did not entertain the same kind of bubble-like environment as elsewhere or whether it represents the fact that Chile's demographic profile would exactly lead us to the point that these precise sectors should be well supported by the underlying fundamentals I will remain silent. Clearly, it will be a bit of both, but it is a point worth remembering when talking about construction booms and bubbles; there is always an underlying capacity story underneath. This discussion is readily available in an Indian version concerning the risk of overheating which was a href="http://indianeconomy.org/2007/02/02/an-overheated-debate-about-india-overheating/"debated furiously a while back/a and I think Chile is a similar story./p pThe general trend indicates that despite a notable drop in the constant price value (in mill pesos, 2003 prices) of output activity has not collapsed in any sense of the word and remain well above its base value. Now, there has of course been a decline and the jury is still out with respect to the extent that the decline will continue, stabilise or turn into growth. Most likely growth will resume its due course over the course of h02-2009, but as in all other places in the world it is the level of this growth which may ultimately surprise on the downside. One area where activity has markedly declined since the middle of 2008 is in the context of manufacturing and in this sense it is worth while having a closer look at the underlying pattern here./p p style="text-align: center;"span class="full-image-float-right ssNonEditable"spana href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_vhPkPUN2aT8/Sk980tTEo_I/AAAAAAAABNA/uuCJdPgkGxE/s1600-h/Manufacturing+indices+in+changes.JPG"img src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_vhPkPUN2aT8/Sk980tTEo_I/AAAAAAAABNA/uuCJdPgkGxE/s320/Manufacturing+indices+in+changes.JPG?__SQUARESPACE_CACHEVERSION=1246723389542" alt="" //a/span/span/p pIf we start by looking at the manufacturing indices in the first difference (change) and represented through a 6-month moving average to try to smooth out the trend for the naked eye we observe the negative trend as it has grapped hold in the latter parts of 2008 and into 2009. However, we also observe that this does not look like the horrible charts that we have seen e.g. in the context of the US, Europe and Japan. The average monthly rate of change in the general index through the 12 months ending April 2009 was -0.2% which is not exactly cataclysmic; in terms of the subcomponent the production of durables on the other hand decline at an average rate of a full 2% (mom) whereas the average change in the value of capital goods was 1%./p p style="text-align: center;"span class="full-image-float-right ssNonEditable"spana href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_vhPkPUN2aT8/Sk9fsAcMF2I/AAAAAAAABMg/Y-hYeXVs1mU/s1600-h/Manufacturing+indices.JPG"img src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_vhPkPUN2aT8/Sk9fsAcMF2I/AAAAAAAABMg/Y-hYeXVs1mU/s320/Manufacturing+indices.JPG?__SQUARESPACE_CACHEVERSION=1246716158149" alt="" //a/span/span/p pDuring the time measured the general index peaked in March 2008 at 139.7 and bottomed in February at 112.8 after which it has recovered to 123.1 at the end of April. As noted, a large part of the drop in the latter part of 2008 and into 2009 was a sharp decline in the value of production of durables which fell (on an index basis) to a low of 65.9 in February 09. At this point in time the production of durables remain depressed relative its long term trend. Conversely, the value of production of consumer goods and capital goods have pretty much shadowed the trend in the general index; or more aptly, it is the relative stability of these two indices which have helped the general index to skirt what has been a sharp decline in the production of durables./p pFinally and perhaps to end where I should have started it is worthwhile to have a look at the main index for economic activity in Chile (the IMACEC)./p p style="text-align: center;"span class="full-image-float-right ssNonEditable"spana href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_vhPkPUN2aT8/Sk9frrrQjLI/AAAAAAAABMQ/Qffy3xVNKpE/s1600-h/IMACEC.JPG"img src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_vhPkPUN2aT8/Sk9frrrQjLI/AAAAAAAABMQ/Qffy3xVNKpE/s320/IMACEC.JPG?__SQUARESPACE_CACHEVERSION=1246716180379" alt="" //a/span/span/p pLooking at this index it is difficult not to conclude that Chile appears to have managed the initial stages of the economic crisis quite well. Surely, the index is down as one would expect but at this point at least, it does not appear to be a decline which will buck the general trend. The index peaked in June 2008 and has since fallen back 5% at the end of April. The most recent data however confirm that the slowdown is lingering as we approached the second half of 2009 with a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssIndustryMaterialsUtilitiesNews/idUSN3043409620090630"industrial production dropping 10.5%/a yoy in May prompting comments from central bank president Jose De Gregorio to note that nominal interest rates could be lowered further from its already low level at 0.75%. Moreover, the monthly GDP indicator showed that Chile continued to contract as we entered Q2 posting yoy 4.6% decline in June and with monthly inflation rates beginning to post negative readings policy makers and analysts close to Chile remain alert. As we have just rapped up Q2 in real time it appears that Chile is poised to surprise somewhat on the downside in terms of prior expectations, but in relative terms Chile looks better than most./p p /p pstrongThe External Sector/strong/p pThe analysis of Chile's external balance and the country's currency is of course closely tied to the evolution of international copper prices as Chile is, by far, the world's biggest producer and exporter of copper./p p style="text-align: center;"span class="full-image-float-right ssNonEditable"spana href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_vhPkPUN2aT8/Sk989hvrudI/AAAAAAAABNI/PoGzNOVv1hc/s1600-h/copper+prices.JPG"img src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_vhPkPUN2aT8/Sk989hvrudI/AAAAAAAABNI/PoGzNOVv1hc/s320/copper+prices.JPG?__SQUARESPACE_CACHEVERSION=1246723453373" alt="" //a/span/span/p pAlthough copper prices have fallen back somewhat in the midst of the global recession relative to the average values through 2006-2008 they are still higher than they were at the turn of the century. In fact, the graph should make any trader look more than once since with the recent increase the price of Copper is very close to breaching the its 12 month moving average price although of course the strength of the global momentum in general will decide whether commodities, and thus Copper, will fly again. As an aside, it would be very interesting to run an analysis on the extent to which the recent move upwards in Copper prices has anything to do with a href="http://macro-man.blogspot.com/2009/06/china-syndrome.html"the reports that China is stocking up on commodities/a (it does of course, but how much?)/p pThe positive effect from copper on Chile's external balance has, at times, been coined as the copper bonanza and Chile's ability to manage this bonanza in a prudent manner is one of the reasons that the country stand out in the current environment. In general, the composition of Chile's external balance look very much like one would expect of course that the current account has been in surplus since 2004 due to the positive impact from the trade balance and thus net exports of copper. Thus, up until the advent of the financial crisis Chile's current account was characterised by a positive trade balance which outweighed a negative income balance to produce a consistent current account surplus. This changed in the latter part of 2008 where Chile posted a current account deficit in Q3 and Q4 as copper prices plummeted and exports in general fell. Basically, the trade balance withered away into a small deficit and with a continuing negative income balance, Chile found itself in need of external financing for the first time in 5 years. It also pushed the current account deficit into deficit for the full year 08 and the central bank, rather surprisingly, expects 2009 to see another CA deficit. I say surprisingly here since Q1-09 has so far posted an overall CA surplus worth 639 billion USD driven by a strong trade balance (a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchiveamp;sid=aM6clcoEGuFQ"mainly due to a plunge in imports and higher Copper prices/a). In any case, it is difficult to imagine that Chile will any problem financing a current account deficit of the magnitude the central bank is forecasting at 1.8% of GDP in 2009./p pTurning the analysis to the currency it is interesting to observe that last time I looked at inflation in Chile, it was running close to 10% and with nominal interest rates below the inflation rate the economy was experiencing negative real interest rates. In the context of the currency this meant that just as we were rounding up Q3 2008 the Chilean central bank decided to hold back on its frequent endeavors into the market to stem the rate of appreciation of the Peso against the USD. Endeavors, which by the way, have been unable to buck the overall trend in appreciation of the CLP ever since 2003 against the USD./p p style="text-align: center;"span class="full-image-float-right ssNonEditable"spana href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_vhPkPUN2aT8/Sk980sPt-UI/AAAAAAAABM4/Luz127JA3Mk/s1600-h/peso.JPG"img src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_vhPkPUN2aT8/Sk980sPt-UI/AAAAAAAABM4/Luz127JA3Mk/s320/peso.JPG?__SQUARESPACE_CACHEVERSION=1246723547370" alt="" //a/span/spanspan class="full-image-float-right ssNonEditable"spana href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_vhPkPUN2aT8/Sk9f170NZFI/AAAAAAAABMo/NtBHgDIM52M/s1600-h/spreads.JPG"img src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_vhPkPUN2aT8/Sk9f170NZFI/AAAAAAAABMo/NtBHgDIM52M/s320/spreads.JPG?__SQUARESPACE_CACHEVERSION=1246723565082" alt="" //a/span/span/p pOf course, events had it in Q4 2008 that markets were to experience a significant amount of stress and rising volatility which sent the Peso down against the G3 currencies where it is only now recovering. In the context of the stress encountered in the market and seeing that the spread on Chile's sovereign debt increased less than the average in Latin America (and Asia) a href="http://clausvistesen.squarespace.com/alphasources-blog/2009/4/23/chile-a-rare-succes-story.html"I argued/a that perhaps this was a sign that Chile's currency would not be hit as hard, in the context of increasing volatility, as its emerging market peers. My argument in a nutshell was that since the Peso was amongst one of the best performing emerging market currencies against the USD (back in April) this was perhaps due to the relatively high standing Chile had with international investors. a href="http://stefanmikarlsson.blogspot.com/2009/04/chilean-peso-rally-reflects-copper.html"Stefan Karlsson would have none of this however/a arguing in stead that the relative strength in the context of Chile's Peso was to be found in relation to the increase in the price of Copper. I conceded that Stefan was right in so far as goes the obvious fact that Copper is a very important driving force for the Chilean Peso regardless of whether investors were also targeting Chile as a relative safe haven amongst emerging markets./p pHowever, in the spirit of good argument I decided to let me and Stefan's arguments suffer the, not always flattering, test of empirical validity. To that end I cooked up the following small model;/p p /p p style="text-align: center;"Y = a + b1X1+b2X2/p pWhere Y is the exchange between the Peso and the USD (quoted directly), X1 is the price of Copper, and X2 is the sovereign spread. I use monthly data from Jan-00 to May-09 for a total of 112 observations and as per convention I am estimating this model in the first difference to avoid issues of stationarity [2]. Given the hypothesis one would expect a negative sign for X1 (i.e. an increase in the price of Copper is associated with an appreciation of the Peso) and a positive sign for X2 (i.e. an increase in sovereign spread is associated with a depreciation of the Peso). The estimation (with OLS) returns the following result;/p p /p p style="text-align: center;"Y = 0.0016 - 0.16X1 + 0.09X2 + ut [F = 33.25, R-sq = 0.38]/p pNow, both variables (X1 and X2) are significant at 1% [3] and thus I am inclined to stick my neck out a little bit more vis à vis Mr. Karlsson and conclude that the extent to which investors see Chile as a relative safe haven amongst emerging markets will in turn make Chile's sovereign debt spread increase less relative to its peers in relation to market turmoil which, in turn, emhas/em a measurable effect on the exchange rate./p pDon't worry, this will be the first and last regression analysis you see in this note and just to sum up; Copper does matter for Chile and with net revenue expected to drop 69 percent this year to $1 billion from $3.2 billion in 2008, it will have a noticeable impact on Chile's economic performance although I need to emphasise that, to my mind, Chile posseses sound fundamentals which move far beyond the benevolence of its Copper ressources./p p /p pstrongEmployment/strong/p pIn terms of the labour market Chile cannot escape the fact that the crisis has taken its toll. The latest figure for April has the unemployment rate running at 9.6% which makes it almost certain that it is above 10% in the time of writing. 10% hardly constitute a dramatic number in a relative context (although of course it is big in an absolute sense), but given the fact that Chile entered the crisis running at 7-8% the lagged effect of the recession on the labour market may push the unemployment rate to uncomfortable levels which is sure to become a big topic for the elections later this year./p p style="text-align: center;"span class="full-image-float-right ssNonEditable"spana href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_vhPkPUN2aT8/Sk9f2OEXuhI/AAAAAAAABMw/aItRDSPCEyE/s1600-h/unemployment+rarte.JPG"img src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_vhPkPUN2aT8/Sk9f2OEXuhI/AAAAAAAABMw/aItRDSPCEyE/s320/unemployment+rarte.JPG?__SQUARESPACE_CACHEVERSION=1246724207233" alt="" //a/span/span/p pThe number of persons employed peaked in August 2008 at 6.693.400 persons and has since declined to 6.574.500 persons for a total loss of employment of 118.900 people in April 2009. At the same time the registered number of persons in the labour force increased by 120.140 people from 7.196.110 to 7.316.250. These figures highlight one of the challenge with having a large and growing labour force in the sense that you need to maintain momentum in order to be able offer the jobs which the people rightfully demand./p p style="text-align: center;"span class="full-image-float-right ssNonEditable"spana href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_vhPkPUN2aT8/Sk9fSRzfcqI/AAAAAAAABLw/dqthFmevKAk/s1600-h/employment.JPG"img src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_vhPkPUN2aT8/Sk9fSRzfcqI/AAAAAAAABLw/dqthFmevKAk/s320/employment.JPG?__SQUARESPACE_CACHEVERSION=1246724264402" alt="" //a/span/span/p pOf course, a growing labour force is a good thing in itself, but in the current environment we should not rule out the case that it can become a source of "unrest" and fierce political debate. Should the employment situation continue to deteriorate on the margin (that is unemployment reaching some 15%) it will be very interesting to see how this drives the discourse in the upcoming elections./p p /p pstrongPolicy and Inflation/strong/p pAs noted, the last time I had Chile under the loop the central bank perceived the risks to economic stability in a wholly different light than it does now. At the time, inflation was running at some 10% on an annual basis and the central bank was busy moving up nominal interest rates. That has changed now./p p style="text-align: center;"span class="full-image-float-right ssNonEditable"spana href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_vhPkPUN2aT8/Sk9frzefsSI/AAAAAAAABMY/iHoFV-RL_a8/s1600-h/inflation+and+monetary+policy.JPG"img src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_vhPkPUN2aT8/Sk9frzefsSI/AAAAAAAABMY/iHoFV-RL_a8/s320/inflation+and+monetary+policy.JPG?__SQUARESPACE_CACHEVERSION=1246724161571" alt="" //a/span/span/p pChile's central bank is formally targeting an inflation rate of 3% and just as it was running way above this target in the period leading up to the crisis, so has it plummeted accordingly and is currently running at negative values on a monthly basis. This has prompted the central bank to lower rates to an unprecedented level of 0.75% in June and most analysts expect another nudge downward come the July session (the graph plots the interbank rate). If this turns out to be the case, the central bank will have lowered interest rates by 7.75 % over the course of the last 6 meetings. Just as it has been the case with other more prominent central banks, the Chilean derivative is trying to steer expectations in an environment where long term yields have begun to inch upwards to reflect the solidification of the second derivative discourse. In general, the central bank is tracking inflation closely with its target interest rate as can been in the graph to the right./p pOn the fiscal front Chile is in a much better position than most. Alongside the measures taken on the monetary front the government has, so far, initiated US $4 billion package of government spending and tax cuts. According to the budget office the budget deficit will amount to 4.1% of GDP this year, a position one finds it difficult to believe that Chile will have trouble financing. On June the 15th Chile's fiscal authorities announced a bond issuance worth $ 1.7 bn as well as its intent to use $4 bn from its offshore savings to fund spending./p p /p pstrongNot too Shappy/strong/p pAll in all this does not look too bad now does it? In many ways I agree with CitiGroup's research department as they wrote in their latest overview of the Latin American economies;/p blockquote pWe believe that the Chilean economy is one of the best positioned to capitalizefrom a global recovery. The openness of the Chilean economy made it one ofthe most vulnerable to the global slowdown, certainly after Mexico. But thestrength of its domestic fundamentals helped the economy withstand the globalshock./p /blockquote pClearly, there are downside risks here and these come mainly from any adverse shocks Chile might suffer from another global fallout or simply the risk that global growth won't recover to the extent many are currently expecting. Yet, it is important to point out here that Chile's relative strength has two sides. On the one hand there is no doubt that the presence of Copper and the important of this commodity in the global value chain as well as the sound management of the windfall from this. On the other hand I have also, as per usual, emphasised demographics as a key variable and specifically that Chile is still riding the waves of the demographic dividend, or more aptly the afterburner of this process. In fact, what is important for Chile at this point is to lock in the favorable path by avoiding that fertility falls too much below replacement level. If Chile succeds in this, it may truly turn out to be an example to follow on more than one front and in this sense it will not be difficult to conclude that Chile indeed is better than the rest./p p---/p p[1] - I distinctly remember that he has been quoted for something like this, but I don't remember the exact wording. /p p[2] - I use the following formula ln(t0/t-1)./p p[3] - If you run regressions as single linear models in turn with X1 and X2 respective as explanatory variables this pattern is repeated with almost identical R-sq values albeit somewhat higher for Copper prices./pdiv class="blogger-post-footer"img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/8991369883287712098-4362451036301906291?l=globaleconomydoesmatter.blogspot.com'//div]]></description>
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		<title>Aloha</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/gold-markets/aloha/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/gold-markets/aloha/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 03 Jul 2009 17:15:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Alex Stanczyk</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Gold Markets]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Aloha Honolulu]]></category>
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		<description><![CDATA[Honolulu, Hawaii, July 3rd 2009AD
Blog entries may be a bit sparse for the next few weeks. We are currently in Hawaii visiting some relatives and taking a much needed holiday.
Just a few economic observations here and collecting data from locals:
Walking around downtown Waikiki, it is not evident that there is any economic problem at all#8230;hotels [...]div class="feedflare"
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		<title>Crime and (Interest Rate) Punishment: Readers Respond</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/market-commentary/crime-and-interest-rate-punishment-readers-respond/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/market-commentary/crime-and-interest-rate-punishment-readers-respond/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 01 Jul 2009 05:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Justice Litle Editorial Director Taipan Publishing Group</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[Inflation, Interest Rates and Financial Armageddon! What  could be more fun? Your thoughts get aired (and questions get answered) as we  dip into the mailbag...

"Actions are sometimes performed in a...div class="feedflare"
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		<title>Waiting For Washington’s Bark</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/market-commentary/waiting-for-washington%e2%80%99s-bark/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/market-commentary/waiting-for-washington%e2%80%99s-bark/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 29 Jun 2009 05:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Taipan Publishing Group</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[Wondering where all the inflation is? Bottled up in  Washington, but not for long.

“Is there any other point to which you would wish to draw  my attention?”
 “To the curious incident of the dog in...div class="feedflare"
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		<title>Some examples of inflation from Jim Sinclair (and Wikipedia)</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/gold-markets/some-examples-of-inflation-from-jim-sinclair-and-wikipedia/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/gold-markets/some-examples-of-inflation-from-jim-sinclair-and-wikipedia/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 27 Jun 2009 20:10:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Alex Stanczyk</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[Classic examples of Inflation: (From Wikipedia)
Angola
Angola went through its worst inflation from 1991 to 1995
Austria
Between 1921 and 1922, inflation in Austria reached 134%
Belarus
Belarus went through steady inflation from 1994 to 2002.
Bolivia
Bolivia went through its worst inflation between 1984 and 1986.
Bosnia-Herzegovina
Bosnia-Hezegovina went through its worst inflation in 1993
Brazil
From 1986 to 1994, the base currency unit was [...]div class="feedflare"
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		<title>Transfer of Wealth</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/gold-markets/transfer-of-wealth/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/gold-markets/transfer-of-wealth/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 27 Jun 2009 20:06:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Alex Stanczyk</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[Alex#8217;s Notes: This short paragraph is a homerun:
It is interesting to note that only 160,000 tons of gold has ever been mined from the face of this planet and at US$950 per ounce, it is worth US$4.9 trillion. Now, consider that the total amount of paper money in circulation (currencies, savings, deposits, money-markets and CDs) [...]div class="feedflare"
a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=BicgHV67rSo:nnuthIJATP4:yIl2AUoC8zA"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?d=yIl2AUoC8zA" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=BicgHV67rSo:nnuthIJATP4:F7zBnMyn0Lo"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?i=BicgHV67rSo:nnuthIJATP4:F7zBnMyn0Lo" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=BicgHV67rSo:nnuthIJATP4:7Q72WNTAKBA"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?d=7Q72WNTAKBA" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=BicgHV67rSo:nnuthIJATP4:V_sGLiPBpWU"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?i=BicgHV67rSo:nnuthIJATP4:V_sGLiPBpWU" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=BicgHV67rSo:nnuthIJATP4:qj6IDK7rITs"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?d=qj6IDK7rITs" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=BicgHV67rSo:nnuthIJATP4:l6gmwiTKsz0"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?d=l6gmwiTKsz0" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=BicgHV67rSo:nnuthIJATP4:gIN9vFwOqvQ"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?i=BicgHV67rSo:nnuthIJATP4:gIN9vFwOqvQ" border="0"/img/a
/div]]></description>
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		<title>China Reiterates Call for New World Reserve Currency</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/gold-markets/china-reiterates-call-for-new-world-reserve-currency/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/gold-markets/china-reiterates-call-for-new-world-reserve-currency/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 27 Jun 2009 14:49:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Alex Stanczyk</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Gold Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Market Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Alex Stanczyk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bloomberg]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[central bank]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[China]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[http]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[International Monetary Fund]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.rapidtrends.com/?p=1785</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[By Bloomberg News
June 26 (Bloomberg) #8212; China’s central bank renewed its call for a new global currency and said the International Monetary Fund should manage more of members’ foreign-exchange reserves, triggering a decline in the U.S. dollar.
“To avoid the inherent deficiencies of using sovereign currencies for reserves, there’s a need to create an international reserve [...]div class="feedflare"
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/div]]></description>
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		<title>Investors are finally seeing the nonsense in the efficient market theory</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/gold-markets/investors-are-finally-seeing-the-nonsense-in-the-efficient-market-theory/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/gold-markets/investors-are-finally-seeing-the-nonsense-in-the-efficient-market-theory/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 22 Jun 2009 19:59:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Alex Stanczyk</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Gold Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Market Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Alex Stanczyk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[economics professor]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gbp]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[http]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.rapidtrends.com/?p=1779</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Great Article#8230;
This is brilliant:
The best response I#8217;ve heard to the efficient markets theory that has dominated thinking about investment for 30 years or more is a joke. Two men walking down a street spot a £20 note on the pavement. One, an economics professor, says to the other: #8220;don#8217;t bother to pick it up – [...]div class="feedflare"
a href="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=sgSdhFDGcLw:48_sO8qXJfk:yIl2AUoC8zA"img src="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?d=yIl2AUoC8zA" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=sgSdhFDGcLw:48_sO8qXJfk:F7zBnMyn0Lo"img src="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?i=sgSdhFDGcLw:48_sO8qXJfk:F7zBnMyn0Lo" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=sgSdhFDGcLw:48_sO8qXJfk:7Q72WNTAKBA"img src="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?d=7Q72WNTAKBA" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=sgSdhFDGcLw:48_sO8qXJfk:V_sGLiPBpWU"img src="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?i=sgSdhFDGcLw:48_sO8qXJfk:V_sGLiPBpWU" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=sgSdhFDGcLw:48_sO8qXJfk:qj6IDK7rITs"img src="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?d=qj6IDK7rITs" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=sgSdhFDGcLw:48_sO8qXJfk:l6gmwiTKsz0"img src="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?d=l6gmwiTKsz0" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=sgSdhFDGcLw:48_sO8qXJfk:gIN9vFwOqvQ"img src="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?i=sgSdhFDGcLw:48_sO8qXJfk:gIN9vFwOqvQ" border="0"/img/a
/div]]></description>
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		<title>Kiplinger&#8217;s Top 5 Stocks for Dad</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/current-market-news/kiplingers-top-5-stocks-for-dad/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/current-market-news/kiplingers-top-5-stocks-for-dad/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 19 Jun 2009 16:02:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Faisal Laljee</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Current Market News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Investing Lessons]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stocks to Watch]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Diageo]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Father's Day]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[http]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Laura Stevens]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rosen Group]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23479173.post-4546583249585992986</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[This post was submitted by Laura Stevens of the Rosen Group. Dads, you're probably expecting a tie or a set of power tools this Father's Day. If you have enough of those already (or even if you don't), Kiplinger.com has a gift you'll really appreciate:...]]></description>
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		<item>
		<title>GM Reinvents</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/gold-markets/gm-reinvents/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/gold-markets/gm-reinvents/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 17 Jun 2009 18:30:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Alex Stanczyk</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Gold Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Market Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Alex Stanczyk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[http]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.rapidtrends.com/?p=1765</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Future of GM.
Video:




Like what you see? Share with a frienddiv class="feedflare"
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/div]]></description>
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		<title>Bond Markets…Watch Closely</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/gold-markets/bond-markets%e2%80%a6watch-closely/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/gold-markets/bond-markets%e2%80%a6watch-closely/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 17 Jun 2009 17:52:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Alex Stanczyk</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Gold Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Market Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Alex Stanczyk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Federal Reserve System]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[http]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[jim sinclair]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.rapidtrends.com/?p=1761</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Commentary from Jim Sinclair regards the bond markets:
It is my strong opinion that Bernanke is committed to not letting this up trend line break down, using all the power of the Fed in Quantitative Easing. That means the Fed will buy practically unlimited offerings at auction and in the market should it be necessary.
The problem [...]div class="feedflare"
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/div]]></description>
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		<title>Who was Smuggling $134bn in US Bonds into Switzerland?</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/market-commentary/who-was-smuggling-134bn-in-us-bonds-into-switzerland/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/market-commentary/who-was-smuggling-134bn-in-us-bonds-into-switzerland/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 12 Jun 2009 12:53:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Sean Maher</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Market Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bloomberg]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[China]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Federal Reserve System]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[http]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Japan]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[North Korea]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Switzerland]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[United States]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[USD]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[www.deadcatsbouncing.com/span/strong/em/adiv;]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1897020887579135393.post-402923588351559638</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Sometimes a bizarre event seems to capture the madness of the times, and this news a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101amp;sid=ayy1QKcwcGN0"span style="color:#cc0000;"from Bloomberg/span /afits the bill. strongemA couple of Asians carrying Japanese passports have been arrested by Italian border police with a trunk load of non-negotiable US bearer bonds to the value of $134bn./em/strong It's not as crazy as it sounds. The Fed did actually issue bearer bonds up to the value of $500m each until the late 1960's (when electronic record keeping superseded them), and these look on initial examination like the genuine article. If they are real, they could only have come from a handful of countries with sufficient dollar reserves to have accumulated such a huge sum, notably China and Japan. If they are fakes, it would be the biggest such operation in history, and would almost certainly imply state involvement, with North Korea the prime suspect. Either way, even in the context of the trillions we have become accustomed to seeing tossed around in bailout plans, we're talking serious money.br /br /The significance of this story is that it highlights the very topical importance of retaining investor faith in a fiat currency; if the supply of money is suddenly perceived to be vastly higher than believed, whether as a result of policy or widespread fraud, confidence can be badly shaken. If this was another crazy North Korean forgery scheme, it gets close to a emcasus belli/em on top of the relentless provocation of the US in recent months. If, in the less likely but possible case that an Asian country were genuinely but secretly attempting to dump dollar paper for other assets, the implications are very disturbing for international markets.br /br /emstrongspan style="font-family:trebuchet ms;color:#3366ff;"This article continues at /span/strong/ema href="http://www.deadcatsbouncing.com/"emstrongspan style="font-family:trebuchet ms;color:#cc0000;"www.deadcatsbouncing.com/span/strong/em/adiv class="blogger-post-footer"img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/1897020887579135393-402923588351559638?l=deadcatsbouncing.blogspot.com'//divdiv class="feedflare"
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/divimg src="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~r/DeadCatsBouncingMusingsOnTheMarkets/~4/bQpyVdgEsbs" height="1" width="1"/]]></description>
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		<title>Gold Outperforms Buffet’s Berkshire Hathaway</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/gold-markets/gold-outperforms-buffet%e2%80%99s-berkshire-hathaway/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/gold-markets/gold-outperforms-buffet%e2%80%99s-berkshire-hathaway/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 09 Jun 2009 02:50:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Alex Stanczyk</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Gold Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Market Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Alex Stanczyk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bloomberg]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[http]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Silver Investments Limited;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Warren Buffett]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.rapidtrends.com/2009/06/08/gold-outperforms-buffets-berkshire-hathaway/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[BLOOMBERG: Buffett Gets ‘Comeuppance’ After Gold Outperforms - Say Gold and Silver Investments Limited: Bloomberg Chart of the Day
Published by Mark O#8217;Byrne
Bloomberg have covered our recent research concerning Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway poor performance versus gold in recent years.
Buffett is undeniably one of the most successful investors in the world and his investment approach is [...]div class="feedflare"
a href="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=fTXWayENbOw:6kaIy3I2nx4:yIl2AUoC8zA"img src="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?d=yIl2AUoC8zA" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=fTXWayENbOw:6kaIy3I2nx4:F7zBnMyn0Lo"img src="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?i=fTXWayENbOw:6kaIy3I2nx4:F7zBnMyn0Lo" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=fTXWayENbOw:6kaIy3I2nx4:7Q72WNTAKBA"img src="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?d=7Q72WNTAKBA" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=fTXWayENbOw:6kaIy3I2nx4:V_sGLiPBpWU"img src="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?i=fTXWayENbOw:6kaIy3I2nx4:V_sGLiPBpWU" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=fTXWayENbOw:6kaIy3I2nx4:qj6IDK7rITs"img src="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?d=qj6IDK7rITs" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=fTXWayENbOw:6kaIy3I2nx4:l6gmwiTKsz0"img src="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?d=l6gmwiTKsz0" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=fTXWayENbOw:6kaIy3I2nx4:gIN9vFwOqvQ"img src="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?i=fTXWayENbOw:6kaIy3I2nx4:gIN9vFwOqvQ" border="0"/img/a
/div]]></description>
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		<title>Gold and especially Silver ETF Default could bust the suppression scheme</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/gold-markets/gold-and-especially-silver-etf-default-could-bust-the-suppression-scheme/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/gold-markets/gold-and-especially-silver-etf-default-could-bust-the-suppression-scheme/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 06 Jun 2009 17:02:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Alex Stanczyk</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Gold Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Market Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Alex Stanczyk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[http]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.rapidtrends.com/?p=1724</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Alex#8217;s Notes: I think everything Jeff is talking about here is plausible. My colleagues and I have for a long time felt the weakest link in the armor of the banksters is the tiny tiny silver market.
The amount of capital required to totally tip the apple cart is very small if you think of the [...]div class="feedflare"
a href="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=9T_-Gu-fHg8:cOfBxpIrbtI:yIl2AUoC8zA"img src="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?d=yIl2AUoC8zA" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=9T_-Gu-fHg8:cOfBxpIrbtI:F7zBnMyn0Lo"img src="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?i=9T_-Gu-fHg8:cOfBxpIrbtI:F7zBnMyn0Lo" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=9T_-Gu-fHg8:cOfBxpIrbtI:7Q72WNTAKBA"img src="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?d=7Q72WNTAKBA" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=9T_-Gu-fHg8:cOfBxpIrbtI:V_sGLiPBpWU"img src="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?i=9T_-Gu-fHg8:cOfBxpIrbtI:V_sGLiPBpWU" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=9T_-Gu-fHg8:cOfBxpIrbtI:qj6IDK7rITs"img src="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?d=qj6IDK7rITs" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=9T_-Gu-fHg8:cOfBxpIrbtI:l6gmwiTKsz0"img src="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?d=l6gmwiTKsz0" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=9T_-Gu-fHg8:cOfBxpIrbtI:gIN9vFwOqvQ"img src="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?i=9T_-Gu-fHg8:cOfBxpIrbtI:gIN9vFwOqvQ" border="0"/img/a
/div]]></description>
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		<title>Wealthy Hamptons &#8211; Eerie new world</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/gold-markets/wealthy-hamptons-eerie-new-world/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/gold-markets/wealthy-hamptons-eerie-new-world/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 06 Jun 2009 14:08:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Alex Stanczyk</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Gold Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Market Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Alex Stanczyk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bernie Madoff;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Doug Kuntz;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[http]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Monica Noel;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Southampton;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[USD]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[wall street]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Walter Noel;]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.rapidtrends.com/?p=1720</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Beach Bummer

 


Madoff schlepped here: The Southampton home of Monica and Walter Noel, center; Walter’s Fairfield Greenwich Group was Bernie Madoff’s biggest feeder fund. The house can be rented this summer for $350,000 for July and $375,000 for August. Photograph by Doug Kuntz.



The Hamptons Stress Test
As summer begins, what better way to measure Wall Street’s [...]div class="feedflare"
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/div]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
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		<title>Venezuela Chavez says “Comrade” Obama more left-wing</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/gold-markets/venezuela-chavez-says-%e2%80%9ccomrade%e2%80%9d-obama-more-left-wing/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/gold-markets/venezuela-chavez-says-%e2%80%9ccomrade%e2%80%9d-obama-more-left-wing/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 04 Jun 2009 15:49:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Alex Stanczyk</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Gold Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Market Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Alex Stanczyk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Barack Obama]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Caracas]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Fidel Castro]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[General Motors Corp]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[http]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hugo Chávez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[United States]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Venezuela]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Washington]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.rapidtrends.com/?p=1718</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Alex#8217;s Notes: Ouch#8230;
Tue Jun 2, 2009 10:27pm EDT
CARACAS (Reuters) - Venezuela#8217;s President Hugo Chavez said on Tuesday that he and Cuban ally Fidel Castro risk being more conservative than U.S. President Barack Obama as Washington prepares to take control of General Motors Corp.
During one of Chavez#8217;s customary lectures on the #8220;curse#8221; of capitalism and the [...]div class="feedflare"
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/div]]></description>
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		<title>New Article Posted: Gold Carry Trade &#8211; What is it?</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/gold-markets/new-article-posted-gold-carry-trade-what-is-it/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/gold-markets/new-article-posted-gold-carry-trade-what-is-it/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 04 Jun 2009 13:37:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Alex Stanczyk</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Gold Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Market Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Alan Greenspan]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Alex Stanczyk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gold Carry Trade;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[House Committee on Banking and Financial Services;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[http]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.rapidtrends.com/?p=1713</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Alex#8217;s Notes: Just posted a new article on the Gold Carry Trade.
An excerpt:
On July 24, 1998, Alan Greenspan stood before the House Committee on Banking and Financial Services and said, “Central banks stand ready to lease gold in increasing quantities should the price rise.”
That is exactly what the gold carry trade consists of. It is [...]div class="feedflare"
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/div]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
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		<title>Chinese Hummers Just a Sign of the Times</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/gold-markets/chinese-hummers-just-a-sign-of-the-times-2/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/gold-markets/chinese-hummers-just-a-sign-of-the-times-2/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 04 Jun 2009 13:22:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Alex Stanczyk</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Gold Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Market Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Alex Stanczyk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[http]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ian Mathias]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[the Times]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[United States]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.rapidtrends.com/?p=1709</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Jun 3rd, 2009 #124; By Ian Mathias  

As you’ve likely heard, a Chinese company will soon own the Hummer brand. Heh, let’s count the ways this transaction epitomizes the new economic landscape…
1. A Chinese company now owns an automaker that will build and sell cars in the U.S. – a first.
2. That company – [...]div class="feedflare"
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/div]]></description>
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		<title>Geithner gets a good laugh out of Chinese Students</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/gold-markets/geithner-gets-a-good-laugh-out-of-chinese-students/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/gold-markets/geithner-gets-a-good-laugh-out-of-chinese-students/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 03 Jun 2009 18:24:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Alex Stanczyk</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Gold Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Market Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Alex Stanczyk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Beijing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[China]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chinese Government]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[http]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Timothy  Geithner;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Us Treasury]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.rapidtrends.com/?p=1699</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Alex#8217;s Notes: I find it interesting that todays leaders are so out of touch with reality that they dont realize even students in foreign nations arent buying their spin anymore.
Geithner tells China its dollar assets are safe
By Glenn Somerville
BEIJING, June 1 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner on Monday reassured the Chinese government that [...]div class="feedflare"
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/div]]></description>
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		<title>Here come the institutional players into gold</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/gold-markets/here-come-the-institutional-players-into-gold/</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 03 Jun 2009 18:21:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Alex Stanczyk</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[Northwestern Mutual Makes First Gold Buy in 152 Years
By Andrew Frye
June 1 (Bloomberg) #8212; Northwestern Mutual Life Insurance Co., the third-largest U.S. life insurer by 2008 sales, has bought gold for the first time the company’s 152-year history to hedge against further asset declines.
“Gold just seems to make sense; it’s a store of value,” Chief [...]div class="feedflare"
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		<title>Oil Price Surge: Deja Vu?</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/market-commentary/oil-price-surge-deja-vu/</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 03 Jun 2009 15:02:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Sean Maher</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[As we are now seeing an 'echo' of the huge spike in oil prices that in my view precipitated a US recession as much as the implosion of the credit markets, it's worth revisiting the 2008 bubble in energy prices. emstrongThe historic oil price shock of 2005-8 was triggered not by a supply interruption like that of the 1970's but simply by stagnating supply in the face of soaring demand, reducing the daily supply cushion to uncomfortably low levels at 1-1.5m b/d (now up to 5m plus) and magnifying the potential impact of any threatened supply disruption/strong/em , be it from Nigerian militants or a Gulf Hurricane. The impact on prices was exacerbated by a speculative mania that gripped the poorly regulated and opaque energy markets from late 2007, creating a parabolic blow-off move to the $147 high last July. Crucial to this whole destabilizing episode was the role of Saudi, which was no longer willing to act to regulate prices (production actually fell in 2007) whether through policy (and Crown Prince Abdullah spoke in April 2008 of 'leaving it in the ground for our children') or the much rumoured degradation of their key Ghawar field.br /br /On the demand side, Chinese consumption had been growing at 7% pa for two decades, and was 870k barrels higher in 2007 than 2005 (imports of 3.6m b/d), while over the same period of strong economic growth, daily consumption fell 122k in the US, 346k in Europe and 318k in Japan in response to soaring prices. World GDP grew 4.9% between 2003-7, against 2.9% annually in the 1990's, pushing the equilibrium price for oil sharply higher in the context of stagnant supply and that 'fundamental' price was probably just sub $100. On July 17th last year, I wrote: em'As US energy demand is now slumping (both natural gas and gasoline), Asian demand growth has peaked, and 800k b/d of additional Saudi supply is coming on stream, I'm expecting $100 to be tested by the Autumn...any re-regulation moves to limit index fund buying by the CFTC will speed the slump in energy prices.'/em Ultimately, demand elasticity proved higher than the bulls expected, and US consumption began to collapse even before the financial crisis last Autumn; strongemenergy as a share of US total consumer spending had risen from sub 5% to 7.5% in three years, effectively a tax increase on already stagnating incomes./em/strong Changing fundamentals alone cannot explain the move in crude oil from $92 in December 2007 via $147 in July 2008 and then to $40 by December, although the key driver was undoubtedly the flatlining production at 85m b/d that resulted from two decades of underinvestment. emThe question is whether now, with well over 100m barrels of oil held overshore by speculators betting on the steep contango structure evident until recent weeks, crude has run way ahead of fundamentals./embr /emspan style="font-family:trebuchet ms;color:#3366ff;"strongThis article continues at /strong/spana href="http://www.deadcatsbouncing.com/"span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;color:#990000;"strongwww.deadcatsbouncing.com/strong/span/a/emdiv class="blogger-post-footer"img width='1' height='1' src='//blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/1897020887579135393-4685536860108668431?l=deadcatsbouncing.blogspot.com'//divdiv class="feedflare"
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		<title>More Than &#8220;A Whiff&#8221; Of Deflation In Japan</title>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 02 Jun 2009 16:31:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Edward Hugh</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[By Edward Hugh: Barcelonabr /br /Well, a href="http://japanjapan.blogspot.com/2009/05/bits-and-bobs-on-latest-data-from-japan.html"as Claus pointed out in his last post/a, Japanese data is pretty much a mixed bag at the moment. Industrial output shot up in April, and the May PMI data suggested that the easing of manufacturing contraction continued in May. However household spending and retail sales fell, unemployment rose, and the CPI reading suggested the Japanese economy is once more getting itself firmly wedged in inflation territory. So while the industrial data offers some much needed short term relief, the mid term outlook is still pretty bleak.br /br /strongIndustrial Output Surgesbr //strongbr /Well, as a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080amp;sid=akmy4s07fnRcamp;refer=asia"Bloomberg kindly pointed out/a, industrial output surged the most in 56 years in April. Production rose 5.2% from March, marking the second monthly gain, according to data from the Trade Ministry. The increase was faster than the 3.3 percent consensus forecast, and companies said they planned to boost output in May and June as well. The headline reading, which registered the sharpest hike since March 1953, when it rose 7.9 percent, was well above the average market forecast of a 3.2 percent increase in a Kyodo News survey.br /br /br /pa href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/Sh-ttF0-F0I/AAAAAAAAOJs/1SIVNMJ5f-8/s1600-h/japan+ip+two.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 237px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5341178673254766402" border="0" alt="" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/Sh-ttF0-F0I/AAAAAAAAOJs/1SIVNMJ5f-8/s400/japan+ip+two.png" //abr /br /The seasonally adjusted production index was thus up for the second straight month, and stood at 74.3. To put this in perspective we are now more or less back where we were in January, and still well below the 100 base level of 2005.br /br /a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/Sh-tpkYciKI/AAAAAAAAOJk/uKH71p9RofE/s1600-h/japan+IP+one.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 225px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5341178612737149090" border="0" alt="" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/Sh-tpkYciKI/AAAAAAAAOJk/uKH71p9RofE/s400/japan+IP+one.png" //abr /At the same time as making the announcement the ministry upgraded its basic assessment of industrial production for the first time in 20 months, saying, "Developments for a recovery are to be seen", although it needs to be emphasised that what can be seen are still only the developments which could - ultimately - lead to a receovery, not recovery itself. And at this point, with world trade flat, investment and consumption falling, and unemployment rising, it is not really clear where the recovery could come from. The ministry official who gave the press briefing pointed towards the upturn in Japanese exports to China, and this is certainly a valid reference, but exports to China alone cannot pull Japan out of deep recession (see chart below), indeed the actual level of exports is still only a third up on December's low, and still only two thirds of the high hit last summer.br /br /a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/Sh1zTvhWpQI/AAAAAAAAOE0/WFZ4Hrd4Ds0/s1600-h/japans+china.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 246px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5340551516142347522" border="0" alt="" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/Sh1zTvhWpQI/AAAAAAAAOE0/WFZ4Hrd4Ds0/s400/japans+china.png" //abr /Shipments to China, which is now Japan’s biggest trade partner, fell 25.8 percent in April from a year earlier. The rate of decline thus fell for a third straight month, suggesting Beijing’s $585 billion stimulus package is having an effect, at least as far as Japan exports go. Month on month exports to China we more or less stationary, but they are up around 60% from January's low point. In fact shipments to China are now about a third larger than those to the US, and 40% larger than those to the EU.br /br /Output of electronic parts and devices, which was up 15.7 percent from March, lead the overall advance together with increased production of semiconductor integrated circuits for mobile phones and portable music players. The output of chemical products also increased, up 13.8 percent, on rubber products for automobile tires. Transport equipment makers saw a 7.0 percent rise in their production as exports of passenger vehicles to Europe and North America grew.br /br /Meanwhile, general machinery products continued to fall, and were down 14.5 percent month on month, a sign that managers remain wary of upgrading factories and equipment before they are convinced an economic recovery has taken hold. If you look at the chart below (click on image for better viewing) you will see that the year on year drops (indicated by black triangle) in machine output continued to be massive in April, with production of general machinery down almost 50 percent on the year.br /br /a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SiPzAb0U2RI/AAAAAAAAOKc/MkahmdAFLR0/s1600-h/japan+machinery+output.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 256px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5342380771784317202" border="0" alt="" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SiPzAb0U2RI/AAAAAAAAOKc/MkahmdAFLR0/s400/japan+machinery+output.png" //a Data last week also showed Japan's core private-sector machinery orders fell 1.3 percent in March, wiping out a 0.6 percent rise in February but it was a much smaller decline than the median market forecast for a 4.5 percent slide. From a year earlier, orders fell 22.2 percent in March compared with 30.1 percent in February. The Cabinet Office said the “pace of declines has eased,” changing the wording of its assessment from “the orders trend continues to decline.”br /br /a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SiPxAqPKTwI/AAAAAAAAOKU/fub5Q3V6LSw/s1600-h/japan+machinery+orders.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 254px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5342378576631713538" border="0" alt="" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SiPxAqPKTwI/AAAAAAAAOKU/fub5Q3V6LSw/s400/japan+machinery+orders.png" //abr /br /The position of Japan's manufacturing in May appears to be following a similar trend according to what we can see from the latest Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) survey, since while the survey found that activity in the Japanese manufacturing sector fell for the fifteenth successive month, the drop in output was the smallest seen in just over a year. I wouldn't attach too much importance to the discrepancy between the PMI survey and the actual output outcome at this point, since the survey methodology (which is normally pretty reliable) is probably struggling a little at this point to handle the severity of the shock in the manufacturing sector and calibrate results. The general direction of an easing in the annual rate of contraction is in harmony on both readouts.br /br /In fact, the seasonally adjusted headline Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose sharply in May to 46.6, from 41.4 in April, pointing to the slowest deterioration in operating conditions for nine months.br /br /a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/Sh-tCoZ4bSI/AAAAAAAAOJc/KKfpB6foti0/s1600-h/japan+PMI.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 220px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5341177943802015010" border="0" alt="" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/Sh-tCoZ4bSI/AAAAAAAAOJc/KKfpB6foti0/s400/japan+PMI.png" //abr /br /May’s survey also showed that incoming new orders received by Japanese manufacturers fell for the fifteenth month running. But again the rate of decline continued to ease from December’s record drop to the smallest contraction in the weakest in the current sequence. While foreign order levels continued to fall, they did so at a much slower rate as improved orders from China continuing demand weakness in other regions (such as the US and Europe). May’s survey pointed to a sixth successive monthly decline in the prices charged by Japanese manufacturers for finished goods. /ppAlthough still sharp, the latest drop in output charges was the weakest since last December. Strong competitive pressures and falling raw material prices were cited as key factors undermining manufacturers’ pricing power in May. Average cost burdens faced by Japanese manufacturers fell for the sixth month running in May. Despite remaining steep, the rate of decline eased to its weakest for four months. Lower raw material prices were reported to have depressed costs during the month, with steel frequently mentioned by panellists. Levels of business outstanding fell again in May, extending the current period of decline to sixteen consecutive months. Despite slowing to its weakest since last August, the rate of backlog clearance was still steep in the May survey period. Evidence provided by the survey panel linked the latest decline in work-in-hand to spare capacity resulting from falling workloads.br /br /The PMI report also showed that Japanese manufacturers reduced their workforces for the tenth straight month in May. The rate of job shedding remained sharp, despite easing to its weakest for six months. Of those firms that reported a decline in employment, the majority attributed this to the non-renewal of temporary contracts and lower output requirements.br /br /strongUnemployment On The Risebr //strongbr /Japan's unemployment climbed again in April and the current 5 percent (seasonally adjusted) jobless rate is the highest since November 2003. Job seekers found it harder to secure work and the ratio of positions available to applicants slumped to 0.46 (from 0.52 in March), matching the lowest ever recorded - in June 1999. The jobless rate rose to 5 percent from 4.8 percent in March, according to the government statistics bureau.br /br //pa href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SiPk_HqFV0I/AAAAAAAAOJ8/i36AQAlzga4/s1600-h/japan+unemployment+rate.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 222px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5342365356029990722" border="0" alt="" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SiPk_HqFV0I/AAAAAAAAOJ8/i36AQAlzga4/s400/japan+unemployment+rate.png" //abr /br /br /Not surprisingly, with unemployment rising and output down Japanese wage earners' total cash earnings fell in the year to April for the 11th decline in a row, as companies cut costs amidst growing uncertainty as to whether or not the pick-up in overseas demand will last. Total cash earnings fell 2.5 percent in April from a year earlier to 272,453 yen ($2,85). In March, wages fell a revised 3.9 percent from the previous year, the largest decline in nearly seven years.br /Overtime pay, a barometer of strength in corporate activity, fell 18.8 percent in April from a year earlier, compared with the previous month's 20.8 percent decline, which was the biggest fall on record. Overtime pay has now fallen for nine successive months.br /br /br /br /pa href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SiPpNnMYbnI/AAAAAAAAOKE/63sdqPNHU-s/s1600-h/japan+real+wages.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 242px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5342370003060026994" border="0" alt="" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SiPpNnMYbnI/AAAAAAAAOKE/63sdqPNHU-s/s400/japan+real+wages.png" //abr /strongConsumer Prices Show More Than A Whiff Of Deflationbr //strongbr /br /Japan’s general (headline) index of consumer prices fell for thrird month in April, adding to signs that the recession will initiate a resurgence of Japan's long run deflation dynamic. Consumer prices on both the general and the core (excluding fresh food) indexes declined 0.1 percent from a year earlier, according to the latest data from the statistics bureau. The "core-core" index (excluding both fresh food and energy) was down 0.4% year on year, the fourth successive month of decline.br /br /Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said last week that price declines will accelerate through the middle of the year ending March 2010 as demand slackens and crude oil continues to trade lower than last year’s record. It is hard to escape the conclusion that the Japanese economy is now, once more, entrenched in deflation, and given the continuing weakness in the economy, it’s hard to see consumer prices reversing course and opening up an exit strategy for the Bank of Japan from the present highly accommodative monetary policy.br /br /br /Indeed, in what is probably a harbinger of things to come core prices in Tokyo fell 0.7% in May from a year earlier, the biggest drop in six years, according to the report, and the first such decline registered in Tokyo since September 2007. Core prices - ie those excluding fresh food will are expected to fall by 1.5 percent in this fiscal year and 1 percent in the next, according to the central bank policy board forecast last month, and obviously there is lots of potential downside risk here./ppbr //ppa href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/Sh-vHccgjWI/AAAAAAAAOJ0/Pfvw9JGSnkg/s1600-h/japan+CPI.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 185px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5341180225514409314" border="0" alt="" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/Sh-vHccgjWI/AAAAAAAAOJ0/Pfvw9JGSnkg/s400/japan+CPI.png" //abr /br /Wholesale inflation - the cost companies pay for goods and fuel - dropped at the fastest pace in 22 years in April, and prices paid for services declined for a seventh month. And the drop in prices may be worse than the numbers show. Core prices would have declined by an additional 0.2 percentage points had the government not temporarily waived the gasoline tax in April last year. Furniture retailer Nitori announced last week that it will cut prices by as much as 40 percent on May 30. The company has launched five price-cutting campaigns in the past year. Supermarket operator Daiei have also just lowered prices on 1,000 items of clothing, food and household goods, expanding discounts to 6,000 items.br /br /But despite falling prices and abundant offers household spending was down again in April (by 1.3% on a year earlier) for the 14th consecutive month. The impression one has is that even if Japan’s economy return to some slight positive growth in the second quarter, if we start looking beyond, there will are very strong downside risks. The deterioration in employment and falling income will likely exert a growing influence in the months ahead, taking a toll on consumers and the economy. We’ll start to see the impact of massive output cuts become clearer in the job market which will leave households with little ability to support the economy.br /br /a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SiPrV4D2EVI/AAAAAAAAOKM/xhH7aeg_bXs/s1600-h/japan+consumption.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 206px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5342372344049832274" border="0" alt="" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SiPrV4D2EVI/AAAAAAAAOKM/xhH7aeg_bXs/s400/japan+consumption.png" //abr /Unsurprisingly Japan’s retail sales fell for an eighth month in April as worsening job prospects and declining wages deterred shoppers. Sales slid 2.9 percent from a year earlier after decreasing a revised 3.8 percent in March, the Trade Ministry saidbr /br /a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/Sh44Tr1vnPI/AAAAAAAAOFM/A1F8twJAiVA/s1600-h/japan+meti.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 217px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5340768118944799986" border="0" alt="" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/Sh44Tr1vnPI/AAAAAAAAOFM/A1F8twJAiVA/s400/japan+meti.png" //abr /br /So it is evident that Japan's worst postwar recession is now spreading to households. Consumer spending is too weak to support a recovery, given the deterioration in the job market and Japan’s economy will remain fragile in the absence of stronger growth in external demand.br /br /The Bank of Japan and the government continue to put a brave face on things, and both have now raised their assessments of the economy for the first time since 2006 on signs that exports and production are starting to stabilize. Both, however, continued to point to weakness in consumer spending and rising unemployment as risks to a recovery.br //ppBank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa seems reasonably convinced that the economy will resume growth this quarter after a record 15.2 percent contraction in the previous three months. The central bank cut the key interest rate to 0.1 percent in December, and has since bought corporate debt and expanded government bond purchases to revive the economy. /pp/ppThe government, on the other hand, have begun distributing 12,000 yen ($125) to each resident in March to encourage spending. Prime Minister Taro Aso’s administration has also cut highway tolls and introduced a programme of incentives to purchase environment- friendly televisions, refrigerators and air-conditioners. /ppBut all of this amounts to paddling up river with a strong wind in your face. Japan's output gap widened to a record in the first quarter as supply grossly exceeded demand, which could push Japan further into its second bout of deflation just under two years after the BoJ officially announced the country had broken lose from its stranglehold. The output gap, which measures the estimated balance between demand and supply in the economy, fell to 8.5 percent in the three months ended March 31, according to the Cabinet Office, a significant increase in the 4.5 percent registered in the last three months of 2008. Thus despite the recent resurgence in the monthly output number we should not forget that output is still around a third lower than it was a year ago, and if things don't change soon deflation could easily become a very big problem, especially for the government, whose gross debt is fast approaching 200% of GDP./pdiv class="blogger-post-footer"img width='1' height='1' src='//blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/8991369883287712098-1192652309343418877?l=globaleconomydoesmatter.blogspot.com'//div]]></description>
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		<title>May Manufacturing Improves Again According To The JPMorgan Global PMI Report</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/market-commentary/may-manufacturing-improves-again-according-to-the-jpmorgan-global-pmi-report/</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 02 Jun 2009 16:12:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Edward Hugh</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[By Edward Hugh: Barcelonabr /br /Global factory activity continued to improve in May amid growing optimism that the worst of the recession may be over. Output contracted at a much less ferociously than at the start of the year in one economy after another, and this month three countries actually registered output growth  - India, China and Turkey. The JP Morgan global manufacturing index (PMI) rose to 45.3 in May from 41.8 in April, the highest level in nine months, although still a long way below the 50.0 mark dividing growth from contraction. The component indexes for output and new orders were both running at much higher levels than in April.br /br /a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SiQ2GPxC3EI/AAAAAAAAOM0/C1ZwuHwfdgk/s1600-h/jpmorgan+global%C3%A7.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 228px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5342454538907606082" border="0" alt="" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SiQ2GPxC3EI/AAAAAAAAOM0/C1ZwuHwfdgk/s400/jpmorgan+global%C3%A7.png" //abr /br /However, the headline PMI is still at a very low level by historic standards, and well below one which would be consistent with outright recovery. On the other hand, it is clear that the easing of the worldwide manufacturing recession which we have been seeing over the past two months has continued and has been substantial. The month-on-month gains in the PMI, output and new orders indexes in April and May are the greatest in the series history (which is not that surprising follow a series of record falls). All of the national indexes for these variables rose during the latest survey period.br /br /Among the countries surveyed (see foot of post for details) only India, China and Turkey reported increased production. Japan (slowest for 13 months), the United States (weakest fall in current nine-month downturn) and the United Kingdom (slowest drop in a year) saw substantial easings in their respective rates of contraction. Although the Eurozone vastly underperformed relative to the global average, its output index rose to the greatest extent in survey history and to an eight-month high.br /br /strongNew orders/strong contracted for the 14th month running in May, the longest period of contraction in the survey history. However, the Global Manufacturing New Orders Index climbed to 48.6, its highest level in a year. The rate of decline in global trade slowed sharply to its weakest since last September. China and India reported increases in total new orders for the second successive months in May. The U.S. and Turkey were the only other nations covered by the global survey to report gains, with new business rising for the first time in one-and-a-half years in the U.S. and for 17 months in Turkey.br /br /br /Although May data pointed to strongsubstantial jobs losses/strong, the rate of decline eased to a six-month low. Employment has now fallen for 14 successive months. Almost all of the nations covered reported lower staffing levels, the exceptions being India (slight gain) and China (no change). Among the other countries, only the U.S. and Austria failed to report slower rates of decline. The pace of job cutting eased to five, six and seven-month lows in the Eurozone, Japan and the U.K., respectively.br /br /At 40.8 in May, the Global Manufacturing Input Prices Index posted its highest reading since October 2008 but remained below the neutral 50.0 mark for the eighth month running. Only India and Russia saw increases in costs. The rate of decline eased sharply in the U.S.br /br /What follows is a very extensive country-by-country, blow-by-blow account assembled from across the national reports. It is probably too dense to read at one sitting, but you can simply pick and tick the regions and the countries that interest you, as I do think the monthly manufacturing PMIs give a reasonable picture of what is actually going on, as opposed to what some would like to believe is going on.br /br /strongEurope/strongbr /br /br /strongSweden/strong /pbr /br /pSweden's seasonally adjusted purchasing managers' index rose to 43.7 in May, climbing for the fifth consecutive month, according to the reprot from the survey sponsors Silf and Swedbank.br /The May result compared with a 38.8 reading in April and was considerably above consensus expectations for a 40.2 result. /pbr /br /pbr //pbr /br /pa href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SiQzIDhjyeI/AAAAAAAAOMk/Z6ai5thlnyQ/s1600-h/sweden.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 237px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5342451271446284770" border="0" alt="" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SiQzIDhjyeI/AAAAAAAAOMk/Z6ai5thlnyQ/s400/sweden.png" //abr /br /br /strongEurozone/strongbr /br /The Markit Eurozone Final Manufacturing PMI posted 40.7 in May, up from 36.8 in April and above the earlier flash reading of 40.5. The rise of 3.9 points in the PMI was the largest seen since the survey began in June 1997 and raised the index further above February’s record low to hit a seven-month high. However, the PMI extended its run below the no-change mark of 50.0 into a 12th successive month, a sequence unprecedented in the series history.br /br /a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SiQnqmuEm5I/AAAAAAAAOL0/t8WzmQ0GPGg/s1600-h/eurozone.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 229px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5342438670870027154" border="0" alt="" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SiQnqmuEm5I/AAAAAAAAOL0/t8WzmQ0GPGg/s400/eurozone.png" //abr /br /br /National PMIs stayed firmly in recession territory across all of the member states covered by the survey. However, the indexes for Germany, Italy and Spain all rose by the largest amount in their respective series histories. Greece posted the highest reading overall.br /br /br /The rise in the PMI was driven by a record easing in the rate of contraction of manufacturing output, which fell at the weakest pace since last September and slower than indicated by the flash estimate. Rates of contraction eased most sharply in Germany, Italy and Greece (which also posted the slowest decline overall). The consumer, intermediate and investment goods sectors all saw rates of output contraction ease during the month.br /br /br /The rate of decline in new orders was the weakest since August 2008 and slower than the earlier flash estimate. All countries covered by the survey saw a shallower rate of retrenchment of new orders. Order flows to investment goods producers were especially weak, although the rate of decline in this sector was much slower than in recent months. Consumer goods was the only sector to report a faster rate of reduction in new work than one month ago.br /br /br /May data pointed to a 12th successive monthly decline in manufacturing employment. The rate of job cutting was much slower than in April, but slightly faster than the flash estimate. All of the countries covered by the survey reported marked reductions in employment, but only Austria saw staffing levels drop at a faster pace than in April. Intermediate and capital goods producers continued to report the greatest decreases in staffing levels.br /br /br /Export order volumes continued to fall in May, with producers of capital goods hit especially hard. However, the overall rate of decline eased to its slowest since last September and was less steep than that signaled by the flash estimate. Rates of decline eased across all of the member states covered by the survey, with the most noticeable slowdowns signaled for Germany, Greece and the Netherlands.br /br /br /Input costs fell for the seventh month running, albeit at the second slowest pace during that period and to a lesser extent than signaled by the flash estimate. Cost deflation eased in all of the nations covered. The sharpest decrease in costs was reported by France and the weakest by Greece.br /br /br /Although the rate of decline in average output prices eased to a four-month low, it remained severe and was slightly faster than the earlier flash estimate. Falling output prices were blamed on weak demand and strong competition. Of particular note, Germany reported a record drop in prices charged. May data pointed to survey record reductions in stocks of both raw materials and finished goods. Germany reported the greatest depletion in both cases, and the stock reduction was again most pronounced in the capital goods sector. Buying activity was cut back further, although the rate of decline in quantities of purchases eased for the third successive month.br /br /br /Looking ahead, the combination of record reductions in inventories and a slower rate of decline of new orders meant the orders-to-inventory ratio – which tends to lead the production cycle – rose to an 18-month high in May (and above that calculated based on flash estimates).br /br /br /br /strongGermany/strongbr /br /Germany's manufacturing PMI rose to 39.6 in May. That compared with 35.4 in April and was stronger than the 39.1 economists had expected. The improvement mainly reflected slower falls in output, new orders and employment than in April. Although the PMI hit a seven-month high, the index was still well below the neutral 50.0 mark. Deteriorating operating conditions have now been recorded for 10 months running, the longest period since 2002-2003.br /br /a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SiQpoGO9usI/AAAAAAAAOL8/RPp_zohsftw/s1600-h/germany+PMI.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 213px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5342440826813135554" border="0" alt="" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SiQpoGO9usI/AAAAAAAAOL8/RPp_zohsftw/s400/germany+PMI.png" //abr /May data signaled a sharp easing of the rate of decline in manufacturing output. Reduced rates of contraction have been recorded in each month since January’s survey record fall. Anecdotal evidence suggested that a more moderate drop in new orders supported production levels in May. The seasonally adjusted index measuring new order volumes recorded one of its largest ever one-month gains in May, to signal that new work contracted at a much slower rate than in April.br /br /br /Manufacturers noted that price discounting and improved sentiment about the economic outlook had supported client demand. New export orders also declined at a slower pace, with the rate of reduction the least marked since September 2008.br /br /br /A steep rate of job shedding persisted in May as firms continued to implement staff restructuring in response to excess capacity at their plants. Reports from panelists also pointed to a general aversion to hiring in May, leading to delays in the replacement of departing staff. Employment levels have now fallen for eight months running, but the rate of decline eased slightly since April’s survey record.br /br /br /Substantial destocking continued in May as firms adjusted to lower demand and sought to cut costs through improved stock management. Both stocks of purchases and finished goods inventories declined at their fastest rates since the survey began in April 1996.br /br /br /Average cost burdens dropped sharply in the latest survey period, albeit at the least marked rate since last November. This led to another marked drop in factory gate prices, with the rate of decline hitting a new survey record in May.br /br /br /strongFrance/strongbr /br /France's headline manufacturing PMI climbed to a nine-month high of 43.3, from 40.1 in April. The PMI was boosted by slower falls in output, new orders, employment and stocks of purchases, while suppliers’ delivery times also exerted a weaker negative influence.br /br /br /a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SiQqXu1CPEI/AAAAAAAAOME/VgELe4vDd78/s1600-h/france+PMI.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 213px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5342441645164084290" border="0" alt="" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SiQqXu1CPEI/AAAAAAAAOME/VgELe4vDd78/s400/france+PMI.png" //a Manufacturing production fell for a 12th successive month in May. Although still sharp, the rate of decline eased further from February’s series record and was the least marked since last August. The weaker drop in output mirrored a similar easing in the rate of contraction of new orders. The latest decline in new work was the slowest in 11 months, amid reports of a stabilization in demand following the severe weakening seen in the second half of 2008 as the financial crisis worsened. /pbr /br /pData suggested that demand had firmed from both domestic and foreign clients, as the latest decrease in export orders was the smallest for eight months. In a further sign of recovering demand, manufacturers’ stocks of finished goods declined at the fastest pace in the survey history in May. It was the seventh fall in successive months, and suggests that the inventory cycle may soon reach a point at which production will need to be stepped up in order to rebuild depleted stocks. Reflecting the smaller fall in new orders, backlogs of work decreased at a weaker pace in May. The latest drop in outstanding business was the least marked in eight months. /pbr /br /pEmployment also declined at a slower (albeit still marked) rate, with the pace of job shedding easing to a seven-month low. Firms’ purchasing activity contracted at a milder rate in May, mirroring the trend in output. That said, the decline in input buying was still substantial and contributed to another marked fall in stocks of purchases. /pbr /br /pA number of panelists linked lower preproduction inventories to efforts to improve cash flow. Lower demand for raw materials allowed suppliers to deliver purchased items faster on average in May. Consequently, lead times shortened for a ninth consecutive month. Weak demand also led a number of vendors to offer discounts and this, combined with lower prices for a number of commodities on global exchanges, resulted in a further steep reduction in average purchasing costs. Output prices decreased in May as manufacturers cut their tariffs in response to intensifying competition. The rate of decline remained sharp, despite easing to a four-month low.br /br /br /strongItaly/strongbr /br /Operating conditions in the Italian manufacturing sector continued to deteriorate at a significant pace in May. Nonetheless, rates of decline registered for production, new orders and employment all eased, while stocks of postproduction goods fell for a second successive month. The headline Markit/ADACI manufacturing PMI rose from 37.2 in April to 41.1 in May. While this represented the greatest month-on-month gain in the history of the series, the index continued to register a considerable monthly deterioration of conditions and the level remained well below that recorded before the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September.br //pbr /br /pa href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SiQrEqrUXzI/AAAAAAAAOMM/dWjRVVTLRMg/s1600-h/italy+PMI.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 213px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5342442417143701298" border="0" alt="" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SiQrEqrUXzI/AAAAAAAAOMM/dWjRVVTLRMg/s400/italy+PMI.png" //abr /Further falls in new business continued to suppress production volumes during May. Nonetheless, activity at manufacturing plants fell at the weakest pace since September 2008. Anecdotal evidence suggested that weak demand from both foreign and domestic clients (as a consequence of the poor economic climate) resulted in the latest decline in new order books. Even so, the deterioration of overall demand was the weakest in eight months. Italian manufacturers continued to trim staffing levels during the latest survey period. However, mirroring the trend in workloads, the rate of job shedding eased from April. Redundancies and the non-replacement of leavers were cited as methods of workforce streamlining. /pbr /br /pDestocking remained evident during the latest survey period. Post-production inventories fell for the second straight month during May, although the rate of decline was fractionally weaker than seen in the previous survey period. Average prices paid for inputs fell for the seventh month in a row during May. Nevertheless, the rate of decline was the weakest in the current period of falling costs. Survey respondents indicated that lower purchasing activity had intensified competitive pressures at suppliers – resulting in lower list prices. Firms also noted that the strong performance of the euro (notably against the U.S. dollar) had kept average costs down. /pbr /br /pSavings from lower input prices were swiftly passed on to clients in the form of lower factory gate prices during May. Panel members reported that the economic downturn had markedly increased competition, forcing manufacturers to reduce charges. Despite lower costs, marked falls in workloads resulted in a further drop in firms’ purchase volumes during May. Subsequently, suppliers’ delivery times shortened further and pre-production inventories fell at the fastest pace in the history of the survey.br /br /strongSpain/strongbr //pbr /br /pGermany's manufacturing PMI rose again in May, hitting 39.8. That compared with 34.6 in April. The improvement mainly reflected slower falls in output, new orders and employment than in April. Although the PMI hit a nine-month high, the index was still well below the neutral 50.0 mark. Deteriorating operating conditions have now been recorded for 17 months running.br /br /br /May data signaled a sharp easing of the rate of decline in manufacturing output. Reduced rates of contraction have been recorded in each month since December’s survey record fall. The seasonally adjusted index measuring new order volumes recorded one of its largest ever one-month gains in May, to signal that new work contracted at a much slower rate than in April. /pbr /pa href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SiQyWJBrM8I/AAAAAAAAOMc/VG5p610pMF4/s1600-h/spain+PMI.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 221px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5342450413929706434" border="0" alt="" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SiQyWJBrM8I/AAAAAAAAOMc/VG5p610pMF4/s400/spain+PMI.png" //abr /br /br /strongGreece/strongbr /br /The May manufacturing PMI eased back sharply, hitting the slowest contraction in seven months due to improvements in the generall outlook. The Markit Greece Manufacturing PMI index showed that the rate of contraction in production, new orders and employment weakened.br //pbr /pThe headline PMI was the highest since last October, rising to 46.1, sharply up from the 40.9 registered in April.br /br //pbr /pa href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SiQm_TIPNdI/AAAAAAAAOLs/Ic-PcBkpeX4/s1600-h/greece+PMI.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 229px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5342437926876689874" border="0" alt="" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SiQm_TIPNdI/AAAAAAAAOLs/Ic-PcBkpeX4/s400/greece+PMI.png" //abr /The decline in incoming new orders fell back slightly in May, and was the weakest recorded during the current recession. However, those surveyed reported that difficult operating conditions persist, due to the weakening in demand both domestically and in foreign markets.br /br /Employment, purchasing activity and stock levels all fell significantly, but at a slower rate than in April.br /br /br /strongEastern Europe/strongbr /br /strongRussia/strongbr /br /The May survey of Russian manufacturing business conditions from VTB Capital provided further evidence that the second quarter contraction will be much slower than the one registered in the first three months of 2009. The headline seasonally adjusted Russian Manufacturing PMI has been nudging up continuously from December’s record low of 33.8, and stood at a seven-month high of 45.3 in May. The month-on-month gains in the PMI over the past three months have averaged 1.6, following a record 6.2 rebound in February.br /br /br /Although the rate of decline in manufacturing slowed further in May, the sector is still experiencing a longer and more pronounced contraction than that seen during the financial crisis of 1998. At that time the PMI was in negative territory for seven successive months in negative territory. The current run now extends to 10 months – and at a more substantial average pace of contraction.br /br /br /Underpinning the ongoing contraction in output was a sustained fall in incoming new work in May. Anecdotal evidence linked lower receipts of new business to a combination of subdued underlying demand and difficulties experienced by clients in securing sufficient credit. However, the rate of decline was the slowest in the current eight-month sequence. The pace of contraction in new export orders also slowed in May. Excess capacity in manufacturing remained in evidence in May, as outstanding business declined further. That said, the rate of reduction was the slowest since April 2008.br /br /a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SiQ0tx127QI/AAAAAAAAOMs/yvTfoiFrwGo/s1600-h/russia+PMI.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 244px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5342453019046243586" border="0" alt="" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SiQ0tx127QI/AAAAAAAAOMs/yvTfoiFrwGo/s400/russia+PMI.png" //abr /br /br /strongPoland/strongbr /br /The fall in manufacturing in two of the EU's largest East European economies slowed in May. Despite a certain stabilisation in credit markets and the appearance of some small 'green shoots', the EU's eastern front is still beset by a sharp industrial contraction, due to increasing export dependence accompanied by a collapse in euro zone demand. There is some evidence that improving sentiment in western Europe have produced slightly brighter expectations for industrial performance, particularly in Poland, where exports account for only about 45 percent of the economy, versus around 70 percent for the Czech Republic.br /br /The Polish manufacturing PMI edged up to 42.55, from 42.1 in April, signalling the weakest pace of decline since October.br /br /a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SiQjX0IATxI/AAAAAAAAOLk/_PUQnd1gZC4/s1600-h/poland+PMI.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 228px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5342433950004432658" border="0" alt="" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SiQjX0IATxI/AAAAAAAAOLk/_PUQnd1gZC4/s400/poland+PMI.png" //abr /br /br /strongThe Czech Republic/strongbr /br /Czech PMI also crept upwards - to a seven-month high of 40.5, from 38.6 in April. The Czech manufacturing sector continues to experience a sharp contraction mid-way through Q2, although the worst of the industrial downturn may now passed. The PMI data also support the view that Poland is at this point weathering the crisis better than more export-reliant neighbours such like the Czech Republic.br /br /However, the worse-than-expected growth and industry data released last month, mean that these very slight upticks do not give much hope for a rapid, robust recovery, even in Poland which was one of the few countries to actually show year on year growth in the first quarter (0.8 percent) although the economy almost certainly contracted on a seasonally adjusted basis when compared with the last three months of 2008.br /br /a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SiQi84Mz9eI/AAAAAAAAOLc/HYC9DUB2_r8/s1600-h/czech+PMI.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 227px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5342433487241868770" border="0" alt="" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SiQi84Mz9eI/AAAAAAAAOLc/HYC9DUB2_r8/s400/czech+PMI.png" //abr /Data released at the end of last week showed Czech industrial output fell by 23 percent in April, returning to a near record pace of decline after a brief respite in March. That followed a worse-than-expected year on year fall in gross domestic product of 3.4 percent in the first quarter.br /br /Economists have also warned that rising job cuts at firms, a contraction of investment, rising bankruptcies, and very weak credit growth were also taking a toll on the economy, preventing an early rebound from the crisis. Indeed Czech media reported only last Monday that truck maker Tatra will cut 450 of its 2,750 workerforce. Thus while expectations are improving significantly actual operating conditions are not.br /br /br /strongHungary/strongbr /br /Hungarian manufacturing contracted for a record eighth consecutive month in May as the economic recession deepened. The manufacturing PMI came in at 45.3 in May - up from a revised 40.6 in April, according to Halpim - the Hungarian Association for Logistics, Purchasing and Inventory. This is the second month in which the contraction has eased.br /br /br /a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SiTdY372DCI/AAAAAAAAONc/bCRfKLSDCqg/s1600-h/hungary+PMI.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 229px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5342638477369805858" border="0" alt="" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SiTdY372DCI/AAAAAAAAONc/bCRfKLSDCqg/s400/hungary+PMI.png" //abr /br /Hungary’s industrial production decline slowed in March, the latest month for which data is available, as the global economy showed signs of recovery, helping demand for exports. Output fell a workday-adjusted 19.6 percent from a year earlier after an annual 25.2 percent decrease in February.br /br /strongTurkey/strongbr /br /br /Turkish stocks hit an 8-month-high on Monday, rising along with other global bourses on encouraging data from China, and on the increasing evidence of green shoots at home. Turkey's manufacturing PMI rose in May to 51 from 44 in April, according to the Markit manufacturing PMI survey. A whisk above the 50 dividing line, but enough to put Turkey - along with India and China - in the very illustrious group of economies whose industrial sectors are now expanding.br /a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SiQgJmV6QlI/AAAAAAAAOLU/2QAxC3Z5UyI/s1600-h/turkey+PMI.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 224px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5342430407251608146" border="0" alt="" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SiQgJmV6QlI/AAAAAAAAOLU/2QAxC3Z5UyI/s400/turkey+PMI.png" //abr /br /strongAsia/strongbr /br /strongJapan/strongbr /br /br /The recent improvement in Japan's industrial activity appears to have continued in May according to the latest reading from the Nomura PMI survey, since while the survey found that activity in the Japanese manufacturing sector fell for the fifteenth successive month, the drop in output was the smallest seen in just over a year. I wouldn't attach too much importance to the discrepancy between the PMI survey and the actual output outcome (production was up in April over may according to Minstry data) at this point, since the survey methodology (which is normally pretty reliable) is probably struggling a little to handle the severity of the shock in the manufacturing sector and calibrate results. The general direction of an easing in the annual rate of contraction is in harmony on both readouts.br /br /In fact, the seasonally adjusted headline Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose sharply in May to 46.6, from 41.4 in April, pointing to the slowest deterioration in operating conditions for nine months.br /br /a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/Sh-tCoZ4bSI/AAAAAAAAOJc/KKfpB6foti0/s1600-h/japan+PMI.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 220px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5341177943802015010" border="0" alt="" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/Sh-tCoZ4bSI/AAAAAAAAOJc/KKfpB6foti0/s400/japan+PMI.png" //abr /br /May’s survey also showed that incoming new orders received by Japanese manufacturers fell for the fifteenth month running. But again the rate of decline continued to ease from December’s record drop to the smallest contraction in the weakest in the current sequence. While foreign order levels continued to fall, they did so at a much slower rate as improved orders from China continuing demand weakness in other regions (such as the US and Europe). May’s survey pointed to a sixth successive monthly decline in the prices charged by Japanese manufacturers for finished goods.br //pbr /pAlthough still sharp, the latest drop in output charges was the weakest since last December. Strong competitive pressures and falling raw material prices were cited as key factors undermining manufacturers’ pricing power in May. Average cost burdens faced by Japanese manufacturers fell for the sixth month running in May. Despite remaining steep, the rate of decline eased to its weakest for four months. Lower raw material prices were reported to have depressed costs during the month, with steel frequently mentioned by panellists. Levels of business outstanding fell again in May, extending the current period of decline to sixteen consecutive months. Despite slowing to its weakest since last August, the rate of backlog clearance was still steep in the May survey period. Evidence provided by the survey panel linked the latest decline in work-in-hand to spare capacity resulting from falling workloads.br /br /The PMI report also showed that Japanese manufacturers reduced their workforces for the tenth straight month in May. The rate of job shedding remained sharp, despite easing to its weakest for six months. Of those firms that reported a decline in employment, the majority attributed this to the non-renewal of temporary contracts and lower output requirements.br /br /br /strongChina/strongbr /br /The CLSA China Purchasing Managers Index rose to 51.2 in May from 50.1 in April, making May the second consecutive month the CLSA PMI was above 50.0, after eight months of being below the critical line. The rate of destocking increased in May, which was encouraging given there is some anecdotal evidence that production may be running ahead of orders. On aggregate the reverse seems to be true.  The CLSA China PMI is compiled by U.K.-based research firm Markit Economics. The export order index increased to 50.1, the first expansion in 11 months. The output index fell to 56.9 from 57.4 and the new order index dropped to 56.2 from 56.6.br /br //ppa href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SiQU2hoehUI/AAAAAAAAOKs/lfQ_1wuvKoc/s1600-h/china+pmi+one.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 239px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5342417984941884738" border="0" alt="" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SiQU2hoehUI/AAAAAAAAOKs/lfQ_1wuvKoc/s400/china+pmi+one.png" //abr /br /In fact in China there are two indexes, a fact which has lead to some controversy. The second index produced by the government-backed Federation of Logistics amp; Purchasing has repeatedly shown slightly higher readings, a feature which may be the result of giving a slightly larger weighting to the state enterprises, which are more oriented towards the domestic market. The May PMI saw the CFLP benchmark reading fall to 53.1 in May from 53.5 in April. This was the third consecutive month this index has held above 50.br /br /a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SiQWFMtZoqI/AAAAAAAAOK0/tNa9uJW2QrI/s1600-h/china+PMI+two.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 239px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5342419336535057058" border="0" alt="" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SiQWFMtZoqI/AAAAAAAAOK0/tNa9uJW2QrI/s400/china+PMI+two.png" //a So despite a good deal of controversy about what exactly is happening in China, and how sustainable what is happening actually is, it does seem that, for whatever reason, manufacturing industry is expanding at this point.br /br /strongIndia/strongbr /br /br /Conditions in India's manufacturing sector improved again in May, building on growth already seen in April. Most notably, the domestic market was the main driver of expansion, as foreign demand for Indian manufactures remained weak. A second straight month of output and new order growth led companies to hold off from further workforce rationalization. However, competitive pressures continued to restrain the pricing power of manufacturers. Despite accelerated input price inflation, firms cut their factory gate prices for the seventh month running.br /br /br /The headline Markit Purchasing Managers’ PMI rose for the fifth successive month in May (and for the second month of expansion) to 55.7. This was the highest reading since last September and indicated a marked improvement in the health of India’s manufacturing industry.br /br /br /With incoming new work and production rising since April, as well as an accumulation of backlogs, Indian manufacturers generally maintained their staffing numbers. Marginal growth in May ended a five-month period of retrenchment.br /br /Purchasing costs in India’s manufacturing sector rose for the second consecutive month, and at an accelerated pace in May. This was commonly linked to higher demand for raw materials. However, strong competition prevented firms from passing on their greater cost burdens to customers. Charges were reduced further, albeit at the weakest rate in the current seven-month period of decline.  Commenting on the latest survey findings, Gemma Wallace, economist at Markit, said: “Rising for a second straight month in May, the headline PMI indicates that India’s manufacturing economy is gaining strength, after a five-month period of weakness. Data show that the sector is currently being carried by robust domestic demand, as export sales continued to fall. Nevertheless, this alone was enough to boost manufacturers’ confidence; inventories were built up for the second month running, whilst workers were hired for the first time since last October. There is also evidence of mounting inflationary pressures within the sector. Demand for raw materials contributed to an increase in input costs over the month, although inflation also reflected speculation on commodities markets. While intense competition remained a bind on manufacturers’ pricing power in May, the latest cut in charges was only fractional. If competitive pressures are mitigated by further improvements in demand going forward, it will most likely result in output prices rising.”br /br /a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SiQXmyz_VOI/AAAAAAAAOK8/GJkP8mSXzHA/s1600-h/india+PMI.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 225px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5342421013210551522" border="0" alt="" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SiQXmyz_VOI/AAAAAAAAOK8/GJkP8mSXzHA/s400/india+PMI.png" //abr /br /br /strongAmericas/strongbr /br /strongUnited States/strongbr /br /Economic activity in the United States manufacturing sector failed to grow in May for the 16th consecutive month, while the overall economy grew for the first time following seven months of decline, say the nation's supply executives in the Institute for Supply Management's latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business.  According to Norbert Ore, chair of the Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing Business Survey Committee:br /br /"While employment and inventories continue to decline at a rapid rate and the sector continued to contract during the month, there are signs of improvement.....May is the first month of growth in the New Orders Index since November 2007, with nine of 18 industries reporting growth. New orders are considered a leading indicator, and the index has risen rapidly after bottoming at 23.1 percent in December 2008. Also, the Customers' Inventories Index remained below 50 percent for the second consecutive month, offering encouragement that supply chains are starting to free themselves of excess inventories as nine industries report their customers' inventories as 'too low'. The prices that manufacturers pay for raw materials and services continued to decline, but at a slower rate than in April."br /br /a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SiQcXiqyDII/AAAAAAAAOLM/AVmEfiJHu7E/s1600-h/usa+pmi.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 227px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5342426248737066114" border="0" alt="" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SiQcXiqyDII/AAAAAAAAOLM/AVmEfiJHu7E/s400/usa+pmi.png" //abr /br /strongBrazil/strongbr /br /Latest survey findings indicated that Brazil’s manufacturing economy shrank yet again in May, with indices tracking trends in new orders, production, employment, backlogs and inventories still stuck in negative territory. However, data also showed that contractions in all of these variables, except finished goods stocks, slowed considerably. The monthly drop in output was especially small. The seasonally adjusted Banco Santander PMI) climbed further in May to its highest level in the current eight-month period of contraction. At 47.8, up from 44.8 in the previous month, the index suggested a much more moderate deterioration in operating conditions.  Again, data indicated that the improvement predominantly stemmed from the domestic market, as new export sales continued to fall steeply.br /br /br /Data for input costs, output prices and suppliers’ delivery times pointed toward a further steep drop in price pressures across Brazil’s manufacturing economy in May. Falling demand for raw materials left vendors with spare capacity. Consequently, lead times for input deliveries shortened for the seventh month running (although the improvement was restrained by poor domestic infrastructure).br /br /Competition among suppliers to secure new contracts provided manufacturers with greater scope for price negotiations. Alongside cheaper imports, resulting from a weakened U.S. dollar, pressure on vendors to reduce their prices contributed to another sharp decrease in average purchasing costs. Moreover, the rate of decline accelerated slightly to a new series record. Lower cost burdens were reflected in Brazilian manufacturers’ charges. Firms decreased their tariffs in order to attract more custom.br /br /a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SiQZt2zIObI/AAAAAAAAOLE/E4SA2KIuR-c/s1600-h/brazil+PMI.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 229px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5342423333563021746" border="0" alt="" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SiQZt2zIObI/AAAAAAAAOLE/E4SA2KIuR-c/s400/brazil+PMI.png" //a/pbr /br /strongCoverage Of The JP Morgan Report/strongbr /br /The Global Report on Manufacturing is compiled by Markit Economics based on the results of surveys covering over 7,500 purchasing executives in 26 countries. Together these countries account for an estimated 83% of global manufacturing output. Questions are asked about real events and are not opinion based. Data are presented in the form of diffusion indices, where an index reading above 50.0 indicates an increase in the variable since the previous month and below 50.0 a decrease.br /br /The following countries are included in the report:br /br /United States, Eurozone, Japan, Germany, China, United Kingdom, France, Italy, Spain, Brazil, India, Australia, Netherlands, Russia, Switzerland, Turkey, Austria, Poland, Denmark, South Africa, Greece, Israel, Ireland, Singapore, Czech Republic, New Zealand, Hungarydiv class="blogger-post-footer"img width='1' height='1' src='//blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/8991369883287712098-2597908422211196839?l=globaleconomydoesmatter.blogspot.com'//div]]></description>
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		<title>Hedge your US Dollar Risk</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/current-market-news/hedge-your-us-dollar-risk/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/current-market-news/hedge-your-us-dollar-risk/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 01 Jun 2009 20:50:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Faisal Laljee</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[The US Dollar has recovered over the last 8 months or so, partly due to the weakness in global markets and currencies and partly due to the decline in oil. Now that oil has moved much higher from its January lows, the dollar is starting to show signs o...]]></description>
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		<title>I have returned! Gold is $980, where is your deflation, stupid infidels?</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/gold-markets/i-have-returned-gold-is-980-where-is-your-deflation-stupid-infidels/</link>
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		<pubDate>Sun, 31 May 2009 16:40:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Alex Stanczyk</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Gold Markets]]></category>
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		<description><![CDATA[Alex#8217;s Notes: Just ran across a rather interesting blog entry.
Its posted by a guy who goes by the moniker of  #8220;DownwithInfidels#8221; and it if is not done purely as a satirical attack on how #8220;stupid#8221; Americans are, then its the real enchilada, which only makes it more funny (to my twisted sense of humor anyways).

The [...]div class="feedflare"
a href="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=pn8mUDC7jak:ULHXgfsoIuQ:yIl2AUoC8zA"img src="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?d=yIl2AUoC8zA" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=pn8mUDC7jak:ULHXgfsoIuQ:F7zBnMyn0Lo"img src="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?i=pn8mUDC7jak:ULHXgfsoIuQ:F7zBnMyn0Lo" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=pn8mUDC7jak:ULHXgfsoIuQ:7Q72WNTAKBA"img src="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?d=7Q72WNTAKBA" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=pn8mUDC7jak:ULHXgfsoIuQ:V_sGLiPBpWU"img src="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?i=pn8mUDC7jak:ULHXgfsoIuQ:V_sGLiPBpWU" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=pn8mUDC7jak:ULHXgfsoIuQ:qj6IDK7rITs"img src="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?d=qj6IDK7rITs" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=pn8mUDC7jak:ULHXgfsoIuQ:l6gmwiTKsz0"img src="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?d=l6gmwiTKsz0" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=pn8mUDC7jak:ULHXgfsoIuQ:gIN9vFwOqvQ"img src="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?i=pn8mUDC7jak:ULHXgfsoIuQ:gIN9vFwOqvQ" border="0"/img/a
/div]]></description>
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		<title>US Dollar….Check Mate?</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/gold-markets/us-dollar%e2%80%a6check-mate/</link>
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		<pubDate>Sun, 31 May 2009 15:09:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Alex Stanczyk</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[Alex#8217;s Notes: Can you imagine what #8220;double quantitative easing#8221; looks like?
The quote from below that sticks out to me #8220;#8221;The Fed is going to have to consider doubling its purchases of Treasuries#8230;..We could be nearing the end-game for the US dollar#8221;.
Bond markets defy Fed as Treasury yields spike
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
The US Federal Reserve may soon [...]div class="feedflare"
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		<title>Exports And Investment Drag German GDP Down In First Quarter</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/german-stocks/exports-and-investment-drag-german-gdp-down-in-first-quarter/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/german-stocks/exports-and-investment-drag-german-gdp-down-in-first-quarter/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 28 May 2009 12:15:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Edward Hugh</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Economics]]></category>
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		<description><![CDATA[By Edward Hugh: Barcelonabr /br /German exports and investment spending plunged in the first quarter, dragging Europe’s largest economy into its deepest economic slump on record.br /br /br /pa href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/ShwUbaYWAVI/AAAAAAAAODE/a1HoMtQ6Olg/s1600-h/german+exports.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5340165719325016402" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 246px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/ShwUbaYWAVI/AAAAAAAAODE/a1HoMtQ6Olg/s400/german+exports.png" border="0" //abr /br /Exports were down 9.7 percent from the fourth quarter and company investment declined 7.9 percent, according to the Federal Statistics Office. The Office reported that gross domestic product fell a seasonally adjusted 3.8 percent from the previous three months, confirming an initial estimate from May 15. That’s the largest drop since quarterly data were first compiled in 1970.br /br /a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/ShwUUhjDhXI/AAAAAAAAOC8/i9pq9ss3tsc/s1600-h/german+GDP.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5340165600989906290" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 226px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/ShwUUhjDhXI/AAAAAAAAOC8/i9pq9ss3tsc/s400/german+GDP.png" border="0" //abr /br /From October to December 2008, the German economy had already contracted by 2.2%, and by 0.5% in each of the the second and third quarters.br /br /According to the statistics office, the decline in economic performance was mainly due to movements in the balance between exports and imports of both goods and services. As in the fourth quarter of 2008, German exports fell much more than German imports in the first three months of this year. While exports declined 9.7 % year on year, imports were down 5.4%, so that the chnaged balance of exports and imports contributed minus 2.2 percentage points to the decline of GDP.br /br /a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/ShwUh-6k_5I/AAAAAAAAODM/ObWpUGXV5_g/s1600-h/german+imports.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5340165832211496850" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 247px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/ShwUh-6k_5I/AAAAAAAAODM/ObWpUGXV5_g/s400/german+imports.png" border="0" //abr /br /The negative first quarter evolution was also characterised by a notable decline in investments (– 7.9%, quarter on quarter). Capital formation in machinery and equipment, in particular, was much lower than in the last quarter of 2008. Companies invested 16.2% less in machinery, equipment and vehicles than in the last quarter of 2008.br /br /a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/ShwWna9DmxI/AAAAAAAAODc/KfngeOeLREw/s1600-h/german+macin+euip.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5340168124660685586" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 248px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/ShwWna9DmxI/AAAAAAAAODc/KfngeOeLREw/s400/german+macin+euip.png" border="0" //abr /The decline in capital formation in construction was small in comparison with a drop of 2.6% on the quarter. Inventories were also run down considerably during the quarter, thus reducing growth by 0.5 percentage points. Growth was positive only only for household consumption and government consumption, which up by 0.5% and 0.3% respectively.br /br /br /Year on year, German GDP was down by 6.7% in the first quarter of 2009. After calendar-adjusted, the figure is 6.9% , since there was half a working day more in the first quarter of 2009 than there was in 2008 (easter impact minus the leap year effect).br /br /39.9 million people were employed in Germany during the first quarter, an increase by 48 000 persons (or 0.1%) on a year earlier. The number of unemployed (ILO definition) was just under 3.4 million, 7.8% of the entire economically active population. /ppbr /The recession in Germany has hit industrial activity (including energy) particularly hard, and output was down 20.2% over the first quarter of 2008. Marked declines in real gross value added were recorded also by construction (– 8.9%) and by trade, transport and communications (– 6.4%). Financial, real estate, renting and business activities fell much less - by 0.9% compared with the first quarter of 2008. /ppbr /In contrast to the bleak picture for investment, fixed capital formation and German exports, final consumption expenditure was ever so slightly up quarter on quarter - by 0.1% - and even did slightly better than in the last quarter of 2008 (– 0.0%). /ppa href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/ShwXX11WQOI/AAAAAAAAODs/zlwHvp7Gw0g/s1600-h/german+household+consumption.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5340168956509831394" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 249px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/ShwXX11WQOI/AAAAAAAAODs/zlwHvp7Gw0g/s400/german+household+consumption.png" border="0" //abr /br /On a year on year basis, household consumption was marginally down though - by 0.1% (following a 0.5% drop in the fourth quarter of 2008), but general government consumption expenditure was up by 0.8%.br /br /strongThe Long Term Outlook/strongbr /br /The first-quarter drop in GDP marked an unprecedented fourth successive quarterly contraction for Germany’s economy. The government expects the economy to contract 6 percent this year, while ECB council member Axel Weber said earlier that while “rays of light” are positive, there’s “no reliable indication that the global economy is past the worst.” The euro-region economy may only “gradually stabilize during the latter part of 2009.” /ppThe longer term decline in German GDP performance is now pretty clear (see chart below).br /br /a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/ShwU7owp3mI/AAAAAAAAODU/PwxxH7l_mAo/s1600-h/german+long+term+GDP.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5340166272940891746" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 237px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/ShwU7owp3mI/AAAAAAAAODU/PwxxH7l_mAo/s400/german+long+term+GDP.png" border="0" //a /pp/ppAccording a href="http://www.destatis.de/presse/englisch/pm2002/p2560121.htm"to the Federal Statistics Office/a: /pembr /blockquoteemMeasured in terms of gross domestic product changes at 1995 prices, the rates of economic growth in the former territory of the Federal Republic of Germany and - since 1991 - in Germany have continuously declined since 1970. While the average annual change was 2.8% between 1970 and 1980, it amounted to 2.6% between 1980 and 1991 and to 1.5% between 1991 and 2001./em /blockquote/embr /pSince 2001 the performance of the German economy has in fact been worse rather than better, much to the consternation of those who hoped that many years of sacrifice in the form of wage deflation and structural reform would lead to a rebirth of the country's former economic prowess. In reality the German economy shrank (0.2%) in 2003, and grew by only around 1% in both 2004 and 2005. And while the German economy picked up notably in 2006 and 2007 (with growth rates of 3.2% and 2.6% respectively) and many talking in terms of such grandiose notions as global uncoupling and "Goldilocks" type sustainable recoveries, the most striking feature of the recent German dynamic has been the way that internal demand failed to respond to the externally driven export stimulus. Of course, all the speculation came to an abrupt end in 2008 when the German economy once more entered recession as world trade expansion slowed and exports collapsed (with GDP only growing by 1% over the year), while 2009 looks set to be a lot worse (with the IMF currently forecasting a contraction somewhere in the region of 5%, and forecasts of up to minus 7% not seeming exaggerated).br /br /a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/ShwWwrkxg5I/AAAAAAAAODk/eqrvdG7r4mY/s1600-h/german+gdp+consumption.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5340168283741062034" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 249px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/ShwWwrkxg5I/AAAAAAAAODk/eqrvdG7r4mY/s400/german+gdp+consumption.png" border="0" //a/pWhat we seem to have here is "a href="http://globaleconomydoesmatter.blogspot.com/2009/03/japan-engine-failure.html"engine faliure/a" rather than mere "magneto problems" (using Claus Vistesen's memorable phrase for a very similar situation in the Japanese economy, and it would be nice if the current crisis could serve as the stimulus for an open, and "in the real world" debate about why this is. So some part of the traditional mechanism of economic transmission seems to have been broken, and the "second leg" of the economic cycle, the domestic consumtion driven one, seems no longer to work. Long term GDP growth rates in the German economy are clearly falling, and the decline looks clearly set to continue. Now falling and ageing population couldn't have anything to do with it, could it?br /br /a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/Sh6AR5gQjbI/AAAAAAAAOGU/HH2Mjtgkh6I/s1600-h/german+population.png"img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 240px;" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/Sh6AR5gQjbI/AAAAAAAAOGU/HH2Mjtgkh6I/s400/german+population.png" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5340847253090241970" //adiv class="blogger-post-footer"img width='1' height='1' src='//blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/8991369883287712098-200231730916493187?l=globaleconomydoesmatter.blogspot.com'//div]]></description>
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		<title>Seeing is Believing, But Stabilising is NOT Recovering</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/german-stocks/seeing-is-believing-but-stabilising-is-not-recovering/</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 28 May 2009 11:13:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Edward Hugh</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Economics]]></category>
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		<description><![CDATA[By Edward Hugh: Barcelonabr /br /This is one of the key points I have been hammering here on this blog for some weeks now. There is clear evidence of most economies globally "stabilising" at this point, you could even stretch it to say that the "worst is over" - since I doubt we will go back to the dreadful days of December and January (see German manufacturing PMI chart below) - when it was like someone had given a very sharp knock to the whole industrial sector with a large sledgehammer, and of course ultimately the vibrations settle down even if the damage remains. br /br /a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/ShXLKTX1snI/AAAAAAAAOAk/Vbg2XEiSIB4/s1600-h/germany+one.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5338396311176983154" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 217px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/ShXLKTX1snI/AAAAAAAAOAk/Vbg2XEiSIB4/s400/germany+one.png" border="0" //abr /br /But to go from this evident fact to drawing the conclusion that a full recovery is now in the works would be a very fast and loose use of both logic and economic theory. Production is falling less slowly (on an annual basis) and even increasing slightly (on a monthly basis) in some countries as orders can no longer simply be met from what are now very depleted inventories.br /br /But as a href="http://germaneconomy.blogspot.com/2009/05/eurozone-may-pmi-improves.html"I suggest in this post/a, upping output to meet current orders is not a recovery, for the win-win dynamic to move us back into a new cycle investment activity has to increase. And on this front there is precious little actual evidence to back the more positive discourse, and indeed the data we are seeing indicate rather the contrary. br /br /a href="http://germaneconomy.blogspot.com/2009/05/eurozone-may-pmi-improves.html"When I last wrote/a we did not have detailed data for Q1 GDP for the eurozone economies , so I took a  look at the evidence from Japan, where investment activity slumped massively between January and March (pointing out that there was no good reason why we should expect the situation to be very different in Europe). Japanese business investment was down a record 10.4 percent year on year in the first three months, and a massive 35.5% over the last quarter.br /br /pa href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/ShUir4J007I/AAAAAAAAN_8/p2HSfshAlo0/s1600-h/japan+investment.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5338211070520906674" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 227px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/ShUir4J007I/AAAAAAAAN_8/p2HSfshAlo0/s400/japan+investment.png" border="0" //abr /br /But now a href="http://www.destatis.de/jetspeed/portal/cms/Sites/destatis/Internet/EN/press/pr/2009/05/PE09__197__811,templateId=renderPrint.psml"we have detailed German Q1 GDP results from the Federal Statistics Office/a, and we find a very similar picture. Total investment was strongly down (– 7.9% quarter on quarter), while capital formation in machinery and equipment,  was 16.2% lower than in the last quarter of 2008, and 19.6% lower than in the first three months of last year.br /br /a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/ShwWna9DmxI/AAAAAAAAODc/KfngeOeLREw/s1600-h/german+macin+euip.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5340168124660685586" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 248px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/ShwWna9DmxI/AAAAAAAAODc/KfngeOeLREw/s400/german+macin+euip.png" border="0" //abr /br /But all of that is to some extent history. Much more preoccupying - certainly for the "onward-annd-upward-we-go" thesis - is that a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601100sid=apIS0VVZ89nIrefer=germany"German plant and machinery orders declined the most on record in April/a from a year earlier.  Orders dropped an annual 58 percent, the most since data collection started in 1950, after falling an annual 35 percent in March, according to the Frankfurt-based VDMA machine makers association in a statement today. Export orders slumped 60 percent while domestic demand dropped 52 percent. So things actually seem to have deteriorated in April with respect to March. No good news this.br /br /Especially when you read the same day a href="http://www.riskcenter.com/story.php?id=18427"an interview with Hans-Joachim Dübel/a -  CEO of Berlin based FinPolConsult, one of the leading and few relatively independent voices in the German housing finance community - where he says: "My guess is that the Landesbanken alone will cause ultimate losses of 8-10% of German GDP, which is real money. Compare that sum with the 5% of GDP costs for the US SL crisis".div class="blogger-post-footer"img width='1' height='1' src='//blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/8991369883287712098-1745710129733568372?l=globaleconomydoesmatter.blogspot.com'//div]]></description>
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		<title>China Offers the IMF an Indecent Proposal</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/gold-markets/china-offers-the-imf-an-indecent-proposal/</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 27 May 2009 12:51:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Alex Stanczyk</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Gold Markets]]></category>
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		<description><![CDATA[by The Mogambo Guru
Telegraph.co.uk had the headline #8220;China#8217;s yuan #8217;set to usurp US dollar#8217; as world#8217;s reserve currency#8221; for an article by James Quinn.
I thought that the headline would refer to how it is inevitable that China would not be long in getting rid of the requirement to use the dollar to settle international contracts [...]div class="feedflare"
a href="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=SzmBOqELREo:--XWPOj8xpc:yIl2AUoC8zA"img src="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?d=yIl2AUoC8zA" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=SzmBOqELREo:--XWPOj8xpc:F7zBnMyn0Lo"img src="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?i=SzmBOqELREo:--XWPOj8xpc:F7zBnMyn0Lo" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=SzmBOqELREo:--XWPOj8xpc:7Q72WNTAKBA"img src="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?d=7Q72WNTAKBA" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=SzmBOqELREo:--XWPOj8xpc:V_sGLiPBpWU"img src="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?i=SzmBOqELREo:--XWPOj8xpc:V_sGLiPBpWU" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=SzmBOqELREo:--XWPOj8xpc:qj6IDK7rITs"img src="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?d=qj6IDK7rITs" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=SzmBOqELREo:--XWPOj8xpc:l6gmwiTKsz0"img src="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?d=l6gmwiTKsz0" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=SzmBOqELREo:--XWPOj8xpc:gIN9vFwOqvQ"img src="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?i=SzmBOqELREo:--XWPOj8xpc:gIN9vFwOqvQ" border="0"/img/a
/div]]></description>
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		<title>China stuck in ‘dollar trap’: Comments to the reddit folks</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/gold-markets/china-stuck-in-%e2%80%98dollar-trap%e2%80%99-comments-to-the-reddit-folks/</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 26 May 2009 13:27:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Alex Stanczyk</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Gold Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Market Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Alex Stanczyk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[China]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.rapidtrends.com/?p=1649</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Alex#8217;s Notes: Over the weekend I posted an article about a guy in China who pushed another guy off a bridge who was acting as if he was going to commit suicide onto a nice soft emergency cushion below.
I said this is the kind of attitude that is driving China forward - they believe in [...]div class="feedflare"
a href="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=bI1lxTfjyI8:OGFkO4wZHsI:yIl2AUoC8zA"img src="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?d=yIl2AUoC8zA" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=bI1lxTfjyI8:OGFkO4wZHsI:F7zBnMyn0Lo"img src="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?i=bI1lxTfjyI8:OGFkO4wZHsI:F7zBnMyn0Lo" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=bI1lxTfjyI8:OGFkO4wZHsI:7Q72WNTAKBA"img src="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?d=7Q72WNTAKBA" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=bI1lxTfjyI8:OGFkO4wZHsI:V_sGLiPBpWU"img src="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?i=bI1lxTfjyI8:OGFkO4wZHsI:V_sGLiPBpWU" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=bI1lxTfjyI8:OGFkO4wZHsI:qj6IDK7rITs"img src="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?d=qj6IDK7rITs" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=bI1lxTfjyI8:OGFkO4wZHsI:l6gmwiTKsz0"img src="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?d=l6gmwiTKsz0" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=bI1lxTfjyI8:OGFkO4wZHsI:gIN9vFwOqvQ"img src="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?i=bI1lxTfjyI8:OGFkO4wZHsI:gIN9vFwOqvQ" border="0"/img/a
/div]]></description>
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		<title>The Federal Reserve and JP Morgan Chase stand alone against a rising tide</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/gold-markets/the-federal-reserve-and-jp-morgan-chase-stand-alone-against-a-rising-tide/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/gold-markets/the-federal-reserve-and-jp-morgan-chase-stand-alone-against-a-rising-tide/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 25 May 2009 13:19:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Alex Stanczyk</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Gold Markets]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[bullion banks;]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[law suit;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Reg Howe;]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.rapidtrends.com/?p=1645</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Recently read an article over at the Golden Sextant by Reg Howe. For those of you who are unfamiliar with Mr. Howe , he filed a law suit against a handful of the largest bullion banks, several of the largest gold mining companies in the world, and the Bank of International settlements over the #8220;gold [...]div class="feedflare"
a href="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=FJd5z4JmaeI:ChBYNbHc3so:yIl2AUoC8zA"img src="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?d=yIl2AUoC8zA" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=FJd5z4JmaeI:ChBYNbHc3so:F7zBnMyn0Lo"img src="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?i=FJd5z4JmaeI:ChBYNbHc3so:F7zBnMyn0Lo" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=FJd5z4JmaeI:ChBYNbHc3so:7Q72WNTAKBA"img src="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?d=7Q72WNTAKBA" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=FJd5z4JmaeI:ChBYNbHc3so:V_sGLiPBpWU"img src="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?i=FJd5z4JmaeI:ChBYNbHc3so:V_sGLiPBpWU" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=FJd5z4JmaeI:ChBYNbHc3so:qj6IDK7rITs"img src="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?d=qj6IDK7rITs" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=FJd5z4JmaeI:ChBYNbHc3so:l6gmwiTKsz0"img src="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?d=l6gmwiTKsz0" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=FJd5z4JmaeI:ChBYNbHc3so:gIN9vFwOqvQ"img src="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?i=FJd5z4JmaeI:ChBYNbHc3so:gIN9vFwOqvQ" border="0"/img/a
/div]]></description>
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		<title>Gold bugs at last have their perfect trinity: Prichard</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/gold-markets/gold-bugs-at-last-have-their-perfect-trinity-prichard/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/gold-markets/gold-bugs-at-last-have-their-perfect-trinity-prichard/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 25 May 2009 13:11:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Alex Stanczyk</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Gold Markets]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Ambrose Evans-Pritchard]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.rapidtrends.com/?p=1642</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[China has doubled its bullion reserves and left us in no doubt that it will spend more of its $40bn monthly surplus on hard assets rather than the toxic paper of Western democracies.
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
The world#8217;s top hedge fund manager John Paulson has built a gold position of at least $5.5bn, the biggest such move [...]div class="feedflare"
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/div]]></description>
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		<title>Europe’s Economic Activity Looks Up (a bit) In May</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/market-commentary/europe%e2%80%99s-economic-activity-looks-up-a-bit-in-may/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/market-commentary/europe%e2%80%99s-economic-activity-looks-up-a-bit-in-may/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 25 May 2009 12:12:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Edward Hugh</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Economics]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Spain]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[United Kingdom]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8991369883287712098.post-6808853119293434075</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[by Edward Hugh: Barcelonabr /br /Well the eurozone outlook is certainly deteriorating less rapidly at this point than it was, at least this is the impression given by the May flash Purchasing Managers Indexes (PMIs) - which show the pace of economic contraction slowing markedly from April. PMI readings for the 16-country euro area rose significantly this month, and hit their highest level for the last eight. It is, however, important to bear in mind that the index still registered contracting economic activity, even if the rate of decline fell for a third consecutive month. Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit, who compile the indexes, said the latest readings were consistent with second quarter GDP falling about 0.5 per cent quarter on quarter (or by a 2% annual rate), well down from the 2.5% quarter on quarter GDP outcome (or 10% annual rate) in the first three months of the year. That being said, we are still in the realm of contraction, and organisations such as the International Monetary Fund, the European Commission and European Central Bank continue forecast a return to positive growth only in 2010.br /br /In fact, May’s eurozone “composite” index, covering manufacturing and services, stood at 43.9 in May, up from 41.1 in April, the highest since September.br /br /a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/ShXOUN_XbhI/AAAAAAAAOBE/WlZEsA5jFPs/s1600-h/eurozone+composite.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5338399780065734162" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 229px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/ShXOUN_XbhI/AAAAAAAAOBE/WlZEsA5jFPs/s400/eurozone+composite.png" border="0" //abr /br /The eurozone economies, especially the export-led German one, showed themselves to be particularly vulnerable to the collapse in global demand after the failure of the Lehman Brothers investment bank. Most hopes for short term recovery are based on the idea that since companies have now substantially reduced inventories they will need to step up production to meet future orders. And this, it is true, will give a short-term uplift to output (which is what we are seeing). But for this short term uplift to translate into a full-blown expansion, the demand for inventory renewal has to provoke an increase in investment to fuel an anticipated future increase in demand, and it is far from clear that we are seeing this at this stage.br /br /We do not have detailed data for Q1 GDP for the eurozone economies yet, so evidence for investment behaviour is scanty, but if we look at the evidence from Japan, investment activity slumped massively in between January and March, and there is no reason why the situation should be very different in Europe. Japanese business investment was down a record 10.4 percent year on year in the first three months, and a massive 35.5% over the last quarter.br /br /pa href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/ShUir4J007I/AAAAAAAAN_8/p2HSfshAlo0/s1600-h/japan+investment.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5338211070520906674" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 227px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/ShUir4J007I/AAAAAAAAN_8/p2HSfshAlo0/s400/japan+investment.png" border="0" //abr /br /On the other hand, eurozone economic activity will continue to come under pressure in the months to come as the impact of the sharp contraction in activity feeds through into the labour market. And companies are likely to keep cutting spending because the decline in external demand has left factories operating well below capacity level, and semi-idle workforces can only be retained for so long. Markit said that the pace of job losses had eased this month – but only slightly compared with the record pace reported in April.br /br /br /The flash reading only gives details for two of the euro area's big four. The rate of decline in Germany's private sector eased to its slowest in seven months in May, and the composite index rose to 44.4 from 40.1 in April, suggesting the contraction in the second quarter will be much slower than the 3.8% slump (15.2% annualised) in the first. Markit estimated that we may be looking at something like a 0.6 decline (-2.4% annualised). The outcome may be a bit worse than this, but still a significant improvement seem certain. /ppbr /The German manufacturing PMI index rose to 39.1 from 35.4 in April, while the services sector index rose to 46.0 from 43.8. The manufacturing index was dragged down by major job losses in the sector, and according to Markit "Manufacturing employment in Germany is falling at a far, far faster rate still than services...Manufacturing has really been hammered even though there was some easing in the rate of job losses in May."br /br /a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/ShXLOZ8IskI/AAAAAAAAOAs/vbtiMoNHbc8/s1600-h/germany+two.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5338396381659312706" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 216px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/ShXLOZ8IskI/AAAAAAAAOAs/vbtiMoNHbc8/s400/germany+two.png" border="0" //abr /a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/ShXLKTX1snI/AAAAAAAAOAk/Vbg2XEiSIB4/s1600-h/germany+one.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5338396311176983154" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 217px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/ShXLKTX1snI/AAAAAAAAOAk/Vbg2XEiSIB4/s400/germany+one.png" border="0" //abr /br /The French services PMI was up at 47.6 in May from 46.5 in April, while the manufacturing sector also rose to an above expected level of 43.1 from 40.1.br /br /a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/ShXMv-1LCEI/AAAAAAAAOA8/dIs3bgwFGsU/s1600-h/france+two.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5338398058009528386" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 211px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/ShXMv-1LCEI/AAAAAAAAOA8/dIs3bgwFGsU/s400/france+two.png" border="0" //abr /a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/ShXMqyZ8F0I/AAAAAAAAOA0/JVbjJFcQWxc/s1600-h/france+one.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5338397968774731586" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 211px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/ShXMqyZ8F0I/AAAAAAAAOA0/JVbjJFcQWxc/s400/france+one.png" border="0" //a /pbr /br /br /So it would be very premature to draw the conclusion that we are out of the woods yet. The euro hit 1:40 to the dollar on Friday, and with this level it is hard to see how German exports are going to stage a recovery with currencies like the Swedish Krona and the UK pound down something like 20% over the last year. And remember, with Italy and Spain themselves in deep recessions German companies are now going to have to look well beyond the eurozone to find those much needed customers.div class="blogger-post-footer"img width='1' height='1' src='//blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/8991369883287712098-6808853119293434075?l=globaleconomydoesmatter.blogspot.com'//div]]></description>
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		<title>US bonds sale faces market resistance</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/gold-markets/us-bonds-sale-faces-market-resistance/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/gold-markets/us-bonds-sale-faces-market-resistance/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 25 May 2009 01:57:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Alex Stanczyk</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Gold Markets]]></category>
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Fed;]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.rapidtrends.com/?p=1640</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The US Treasury is facing an ordeal by fire this week as it tries to sell $100bn (£62bn) of bonds to a deeply sceptical market amid growing fears of a sovereign bond crisis in the Anglo-Saxon world.
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Fed chair Ben Bernanke has long argued that central banks can bring down long-term borrowing rates by [...]div class="feedflare"
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/div]]></description>
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		<title>Chinese Ex-Soldier Pushes Would-Be China Suicide off Bridge</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/gold-markets/chinese-ex-soldier-pushes-would-be-china-suicide-off-bridge/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/gold-markets/chinese-ex-soldier-pushes-would-be-china-suicide-off-bridge/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 24 May 2009 15:07:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Alex Stanczyk</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Gold Markets]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.rapidtrends.com/?p=1636</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Alex#8217;s Notes: This is the kind of attitude that is the reason China is moving ahead in the world and will soon likely be the most influential country on earth. 
Some might say this is anti-patriotic#8230;and to that I say whats more anti-patriotic, advocating lazy welfare state mentally that produces nothing yet demands everything? Or [...]div class="feedflare"
a href="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=lrei6-A8dLU:O6C18ppiRyM:yIl2AUoC8zA"img src="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?d=yIl2AUoC8zA" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=lrei6-A8dLU:O6C18ppiRyM:F7zBnMyn0Lo"img src="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?i=lrei6-A8dLU:O6C18ppiRyM:F7zBnMyn0Lo" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=lrei6-A8dLU:O6C18ppiRyM:7Q72WNTAKBA"img src="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?d=7Q72WNTAKBA" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=lrei6-A8dLU:O6C18ppiRyM:V_sGLiPBpWU"img src="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?i=lrei6-A8dLU:O6C18ppiRyM:V_sGLiPBpWU" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=lrei6-A8dLU:O6C18ppiRyM:qj6IDK7rITs"img src="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?d=qj6IDK7rITs" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=lrei6-A8dLU:O6C18ppiRyM:l6gmwiTKsz0"img src="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?d=l6gmwiTKsz0" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=lrei6-A8dLU:O6C18ppiRyM:gIN9vFwOqvQ"img src="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?i=lrei6-A8dLU:O6C18ppiRyM:gIN9vFwOqvQ" border="0"/img/a
/div]]></description>
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		<title>Gold, Oil Comex…stand for delivery…is this it?</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/gold-markets/gold-oil-comex%e2%80%a6stand-for-delivery%e2%80%a6is-this-it/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/gold-markets/gold-oil-comex%e2%80%a6stand-for-delivery%e2%80%a6is-this-it/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 23 May 2009 19:01:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Alex Stanczyk</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Gold Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Market Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Alex Stanczyk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[http]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[London Gold Pool]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.rapidtrends.com/?p=1634</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Interesting article over at the Silver Bear. 
The part I notice that our more saavy clients tend to understand as well, is the part about a trading halt in gold. This isnt quite so crazy an idea, as the history of the London Gold Pool clearly shows.
What few who are new to gold and silver [...]div class="feedflare"
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/div]]></description>
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		<title>Housing market about to take another hit</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/gold-markets/housing-market-about-to-take-another-hit/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/gold-markets/housing-market-about-to-take-another-hit/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 23 May 2009 17:52:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Alex Stanczyk</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Gold Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Market Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Alex Stanczyk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[http]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.rapidtrends.com/?p=1630</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Alex#8217;s Notes: I have been saying for some time now that we have not seen the bottom of the US Housing market, nor will we until 2012 or so.
Its amazing to me how people will hear the truth, yet refuse to take action based upon what is coming.
Trouble Ahead: Millions of Mortgages Will Ratchet Upward [...]div class="feedflare"
a href="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=92nY1AKUhH4:2Ye_7bG3q-M:yIl2AUoC8zA"img src="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?d=yIl2AUoC8zA" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=92nY1AKUhH4:2Ye_7bG3q-M:F7zBnMyn0Lo"img src="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?i=92nY1AKUhH4:2Ye_7bG3q-M:F7zBnMyn0Lo" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=92nY1AKUhH4:2Ye_7bG3q-M:7Q72WNTAKBA"img src="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?d=7Q72WNTAKBA" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=92nY1AKUhH4:2Ye_7bG3q-M:V_sGLiPBpWU"img src="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?i=92nY1AKUhH4:2Ye_7bG3q-M:V_sGLiPBpWU" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=92nY1AKUhH4:2Ye_7bG3q-M:qj6IDK7rITs"img src="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?d=qj6IDK7rITs" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=92nY1AKUhH4:2Ye_7bG3q-M:l6gmwiTKsz0"img src="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?d=l6gmwiTKsz0" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=92nY1AKUhH4:2Ye_7bG3q-M:gIN9vFwOqvQ"img src="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?i=92nY1AKUhH4:2Ye_7bG3q-M:gIN9vFwOqvQ" border="0"/img/a
/div]]></description>
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		<title>“The Banks Are Insolvent”, Mark Patterson</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/gold-markets/%e2%80%9cthe-banks-are-insolvent%e2%80%9d-mark-patterson/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/gold-markets/%e2%80%9cthe-banks-are-insolvent%e2%80%9d-mark-patterson/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 22 May 2009 19:03:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Alex Stanczyk</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Gold Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Market Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Alex Stanczyk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ambrose Evans-Pritchard]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[http]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mark Patterson Alex;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mark Patterson;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tyler  Durden;]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.rapidtrends.com/?p=1606</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Alex#8217;s Notes: Hat-tip to Tyler Durden over at Zero Hedge.

Mark Patterson: #8220;It#8217;s A Sham. The Banks Are Insolvent#8221;
 Posted by Tyler Durden   at 8:40 PM 
Update 2: Please see the most recent post in this thread, in which I disclose that representatives of Mr. Patterson dispute the original Ambrose Evans-Pritchard article was #8220;fabricated#8221; [...]div class="feedflare"
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/div]]></description>
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		<title>Will Stocks Come &#8220;Back to Reality?&#8221;</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-in-energy-markets/will-stocks-come-back-to-reality/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-in-energy-markets/will-stocks-come-back-to-reality/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 22 May 2009 13:55:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Michael E. Brisky</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Energy Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Market Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bloomberg]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[David Rosenberg]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FULL]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[michael brisky]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Michael Steinhardt;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[United States]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087amp;]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[The day before a holiday weekend often sees lighter trading, and you don't want to read too much into any move, but I'm still looking at a few things today. The market has turned lower after futures rallied overnight and into this morning. There is a lot of talk about this rally sputtering out, and some of it is coming from some respected names:br /br /-Yesterday I posted that David Rosenberg thought we will re-test our March lows. a href="http://briskycapital.blogspot.com/2009/05/will-we-re-test-march-lows.html"Click here to read that post./abr /br /-Today I read a a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087amp;sid=adjpiftbIy8Qamp;refer=home"brief story from Bloomberg /awith comments from Michael Steinhardt. Here's what he had to say:br /br /blockquoteMichael Steinhardt, whose hedge funds returned more than 20 percent a yearbr /for almost three decades, said the steepest U.S. stock market rally since thebr /1930s will probably end.br /br /“The economy is still a scary place,” Steinhardt said in a Bloombergbr /Television interview. “My net feeling is that this rally doesn’t have all thatbr /much more to go and the dangers out there remain consequential.”br /br /“Can the stock market do well in a muddling period in the economy, where atbr /best it grows at a percent or two for a period of time? Maybe,” Steinhardt, 68,br /said. “But it’s not a period where you see an effusive stock market.”br //blockquotebr /br /This goes back to the theory that this rally may sputter out due to lack of catalysts. What is going to move stocks higher? Most bulls say there is lots of cash on the sidelines waiting to buy the dips. That could be true to some extent, but in this crisis, people, as well as corporations are de-leveraging major amounts. More than usual in this type of cycle. I also have seen that some fund managers haven't performed well in this rally, which means they were still short, or at least weren't adding much to the long side. Will they jump in at lower prices now? Maybe.br /br /This, along with the inflation vs deflation-should you buy gold debate, are the major talking points now. We know the big banks will survive, no matter how cloudy their outlooks may be. The government is content with flooding the market with new money from every which way. But how will this effect the market in the next couple of months?br /br /The battle continues.div class="blogger-post-footer"img width='1' height='1' src='//blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/819581243324579563-8060111135000572533?l=briskycapital.blogspot.com'//div]]></description>
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