by James Hamilton As noted by Calculated Risk, global warming or no, the spring selling season for new homes never seemed to arrive this year. There is a strong seasonal component to new home sales. In a typical year, the number of homes sold each month in March through May would be 40% higher than in December. Nine years out of 10, the rate would be at least 20% higher. This year? Only 9%. And December 2007 was itself down 38% from December 2006 and down 50% from December 2005. Why no spring? This graph from Peter Hooper may have something to do with it. Source: Hooper (2008) Technorati Tags: macroeconomics, housing, recession, economics

Nouriel Roubini, professor at New York University and chairman of RGE Monitor, is renowned for his bearish stance on the US economy and stock markets. Aline van Duyn, US Markets Editor of the Financial Times, has just conducted a three-part video interview with Roubini on a variety of topical issues.

In Part 1 Roubini shares his pessimistic outlook for the US economy. He does not expect a short and shallow recession, but believes it will last 12 to 18 months. He expects the housing recession to get worse; a contraction of consumption; and problems in the financial system well beyond sub-prime mortgages, into residential mortgages, commercial real estate, consumer credit, leveraged loans, corporate bonds and municipal bonds.

Click here or on the image below for Part

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