Mining will keep economy growing Need to increase production Prices may fall but demand will be strong

 

THE mining boom will help keep Australia’s economy from falling into a hole until at least 2013, a report suggests.

Economic forecaster BIS Shrapnel said record levels of mining investment together with a ramp-up in production will insulate the economy from recession for the next five years - even with commodity prices tipped to fall.

“We didn’t really do enough investment, with the benefit of hindsight, through the 1990s to gear ourselves up for maintaining strong growth in mineral output and what we’re trying to do now is catch up,” said Adrian Hart, senior manager of BIS Shrapnel’s mining unit.

“The next five years will all be about increasing production to meet demand from China and other emerging economies . . . and once that production comes on stream that will drive weaker prices for a lot of commodities.”

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Source This morning we were pleased to welcome Janet Yellen, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, to our UCSD Economics Roundtable. She focused on three main challenges: the housing slump, financial market turmoil, and commodity prices, which she likened to the three witches from Macbeth. Her complete speech is available from the FRB SFO Here are some excerpts. Janet Yellen (photo courtesy of FRB SFO). Housing. Unfortunately, it appears to me that there are at least three reasons for thinking that housing prices have further to fall. First, the ratio of house prices to rents-- a kind of price-dividend ratio for housing-- still remains quite high by historical standards.... Second, inventories of unsold homes remain at elevated levels.... Third, the futures market for house prices predicts further declines in a number of metropolitan areas this year.... Financial markets. ...

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S&P has tried and failed to overcome the 1400 level consistently over the last couple of months. Today, it overcame 1400 for a bit only to fall back. in fact, as I write this, the rally that has lasted most of the day has completely evaporated and S&P is now lower on the day. For the last week, I have looked at my holdings again and again wondering if I should sell my long positions or trim down. Many of my stocks have been steady and forming nice bottoms or bases (Omniture, Marchex) and some have just been going up at any sign of a broader market rally. Visa, Potash, RIMM, Apple and Nintendo have all weathered the pull backs exceptionally well and I am torn whether to hold on and ride out the bear or to sell and buy at lower levels. But then I have never been good ...