The U.S. news media has convinced many investors that oil consumption is falling because of the global recession. While that may be true, it’s a disservice to millions of investors because production is declining at a pace that’s actually three times faster. And that suggests higher oil and gasoline prices in coming months - perhaps as much as 50% - 70% higher, or more - particularly if a U.S. economic recovery is truly in the offing. To really see what I’m talking about, let’s start with a close look at consumption. I’m asked about this frequently in my global wanderings, most recently at the Las Vegas Money Show last week. For months we’ve been hearing about a drop in global demand. It’s a popular story and one that sounds credible: After all, it seems logical to assume that during economic chaos, consumers and businesses alike will ...

Luckily, I was bearish on oil until recently. I said to short oil when it was at $120 per barrel on 04/23/08. I was a little early to the party, but oil did drop below $33 a barrel in December of 2008. Oil plummeted $114 a barrel after reaching its record high last summer.

But, now I think oil has bottomed and will head higher. My fundamental and technical indicators are pointing to higher oil prices.

It’s disappointing that Americans seem to forget about our dependence on foreign oil as oil prices drop. In the 1970’s we got a wakeup call when people experienced gas shortages and rising fuel costs. Then it happened again, when oil spiked up to $147 a barrel last July. You heard lots of talk of switching to electric cars and cutting off our addiction to foreign oil. It’s disheartening that you don’t hear much about this

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Louis Basenese is one of the smartest investment analysts I know, and a good friend of mine to boot. And most of the time I agree with his research - and his conclusions. Just not this time.

You see, this past Tuesday, his Investment U article caught my attention. In case you missed it, it was written about green energy. In it, Louis makes an argument for a “green energy super-bubble” that could burst in as little as two or three years, leaving unwary alternative energy investors in the lurch.

In his article, he cites four conditions that exist that make alternative energy ripe for a bubble. Those conditions may indeed be forming, but in and of themselves won’t cause a “speculative bubble.” In this case, there’s definitely more to the story.

The Defense of Alternative Energy & Green Investing

Louis: “The legislation is in place, and more

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Alternative Energy: Why You Can’t Ignore “Green” Investing

by David Fessler, Advisory Panelist

Louis Basenese is one of the smartest investment analysts I know, and a good friend of mine to boot. And most of the time I agree with his research - and his conclusions.

Just not this time.

You see, this past Tuesday, his Investment U article caught my attention. In case you missed it, it was written about green energy. In it, Louis makes an argument for a “green energy super-bubble” that could burst in as little as two or three years, leaving unwary alternative energy investors in the lurch.

In his article, he cites four conditions that exist that make alternative energy ripe for a bubble. Those conditions may indeed be forming, but in and of themselves won’t cause a “speculative bubble.” In this case, there’s definitely more to the story.

The Defense of Alternative Energy &

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Commodity prices have plunged from the record highs they hit earlier this year, but in a recent interview with Bloomberg, investing guru Jim Rogers said he is still bullish on commodities, which he expects to take off as soon as the clouds of the global recession lift.

The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 commodities has fallen more than 54% from its July peak and is now at its lowest level in six years. Oil spearheaded the decline, with light, sweet crude for January delivery dropping $2.36, or 5.4%, to settle at $41.31 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange Friday. Black gold has tumbled 71% since peaking at a record high of $147 a barrel in July.

Actual gold is down 27% from its record high of $1,032 an ounce, reached in March. Prices for other commodities such as copper, zinc, platinum and corn have shared in the decline

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Basic Earth Science Systems, Inc. today reported its operating results for the 2nd Quarter ending September 30, 2008. Basic Earth is an independent oil and gas exploration company. Benefitting from higher oil and gasoline prices earlier in 2008, net income rose to $946,000. Oil and gas revenue was $2,697,000. Compared to the same period in 2007, net income was 120% higher and sales revenue was 51% higher.

Asked to comment on the company’s impressive results, Basic’s President, Ray Singleton, said the “combination of high commodity prices and the effect of our new Colorado wells coming on production have certainly supported the results of our second fiscal quarter.” According to Singleton, Basic Earth recognizes that declining oil prices will have a direct impact on future operations. However, he said Basic Earth has prepared a plan for this scenario based on prior experience.

Noting the company has faced

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When oil hit $147 a barrel this summer, hedge funds were feeling the heat as big media and big government pointed to the speculators as the real culprit in the price run-ups. The only people who weren’t complaining about oil hedge-fund traders, it seemed, were investors who held shares in clean-energy companies. But times have changed…

The higher oil rose, the more valuable their green portfolio grew. Making money in alternative energy was a fait accompli.

Well, the wheel has turned, pretty quickly in fact, so now the green contingent can blame those dastardly hedge funds for their own reversal of fortune.

The credit crunch has forced many hedge funds to get out of the oil trading business. While it’s difficult to say exactly how much oil inventory hedge funds controlled in the heydays of 2008, today their influence has waned along with tighter credit.

When we talk about oil and the laws of supply

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by Edward Hugh: Barcelona"The Kazakh government is ready to step in,'' Kazakhstan's Prime Minister Karim Masimov said this morning in a telephone interview with Bloomberg "The Kazakh banking system with the support of the government and central bank will fulfill all obligations to international investors.....We have our own specific plan to survive without any external support....I don't think we need support from the International Monetary Fund or overseas.'' Well that is good news, so at least we know that one of the CIS and CEE economies won't be looking to the IMF for bail-out support in this crisis which is presently growing by the day. So Kazakstan, that country which is reputedly host to reserves of approximately 95% of the elements in the periodic table, with a population of around 15 million housed on a surface area greater than the whole of Western Europe, is going to be able to look after itself. But hang on a minute, just where is Kazakhstan, and just what have they been getting up to over there, and why the hell should I take Karim Masimov's word for it, when just about all the other Iceland Look-alike show contestants seem to be saying the same? After all, didn't those extermely bright and able young people over at RBC Capital Markets in Toronto say in a report only last week that, along with Latvia, the country's $100 billion oil-led economy is among the most vulnerable to the present global credit crisis and the skid-row economic trajectories that go with it simply because of its excessive reliance on short-term foreign borrowing. And isn't it the case that the cost of protecting Kazakhstan government debt against default has more than doubled this month - to over 1,000 basis points (or 10%), the level for borrowers that investors term ``distressed,'' according to CMA Datavision credit-default swap prices. Only Ukraine, which as we know is already seeking IMF support, is classified as being a bigger risk among European emerging-market governments. Surely all those highly dedicated, bright, and extremely able young people who are doing all that trading know what they are about, don't they?

During the years 2000-2007 the Kazakhstan economy enjoyed an extended period of very rapid growth, with real GDP growth averaging 10 percent annually. The expansion was underpinned by the development of the oil sector, prudent macroeconomic policies, structural reforms, and increased access to global financial markets. As a result, real per capita incomes have doubled since 2000 and social indicators have generally improved. • The global financial turmoil that began last summer had a significant impact on the Kazakhstan economy. Market perceptions of risk on Kazakhstan's assets rose sharply last September and remain relatively elevated. • Economic growth is expected to drop back significantly in the wake of the financial shock, but is still likely to sustain significant growth. The IMF are forecasting GDP growth of 5 percent in 2008 and a modest recovery to 6.25 percent in 2009. • Consumer ...

by Edward Hugh: Barcelona India's growth rate fell back in the second calendar quarter of 2008 (and the first quarter of the 2008/09 financial year), expanding at the slowest rate recorded in three years, as the Reserve Bank of India struggles to control record high inflation by applying tight credit conditions. Annual growth slowed to 7.9 per cent in the quarter of 2008 which ended on June 30, significantly lower than the 8.8 per cent rate reported for the January to March quarter. Growth momentum has obviously been slowing on tighter monetary policy and the adverse global environment. Higher interest rates, slower bank credit growth and higher oil and commodity prices are evidently now having a marked effect on activity levels in the Indian economy. However, in spite of the slowdown, the growth rate of Asia’s third largest economy remains strong, and there are very positive signs ...