While I touched on unemployment duration at the end of my last blog, this is a very important subject and deserves a bit more elaboration. Quite simply being out of work for three or four weeks is a very different experience with very different economic implications than being out of work for six months to a year or more. The focus on the total number of unemployed obscures that reality. The thing that makes this recession so much different than the ones that have gone before it is how long people are staying out of work once they become unemployed. Yeah if you get laid off for a few weeks, it can be a pain in the butt, but essentially it is just an unplanned vacation. It does not really affect your long term financial solvency, nor do your job skills diminish significantly. After six months, regular state unemployment ...

Recently, Rep. Alan Grayson (D-FL) quipped on the floor of the House that the GOP health care plan amounted to: "1) Don’t get sick, and 2) If you do get sick, die quickly." Yesterday, John Boehner (R-OH), the top GOP man in the House, finally unveiled the official GOP plan...and did little to disprove Rep. Grayson. The GOP plan would allow firms like WellPoint (WLP) and Aetna (AET) to continue to deny coverage based on pre-existing conditions. It would not offer any subsidies to the working poor to help them get covered, and would not require people to buy health insurance, or for employers to offer it. It would make it harder for people to sue if they are injured by medical malpractice. The use of contingency fees by lawyers in malpractice suits would be strictly limited. Thus, for example, if the doctor misread your ...

This post provides links to a number of interesting articles I have read over the past few days that you may also enjoy.

• Michael Ehrmann and Panagiota Tzamourani (European Central Bank): Memories of high inflation, September 2009. Inflation has been well contained over the last decades in most industrialized countries. This implies, however, that memories of high inflation are likely to fade, because over time larger parts of the population have never experienced high inflation, whereas those who have might forget. This paper tests whether memories of high inflation affect agents’ preferences about the importance attached to price stability, using a large database covering over 52,000 survey responses from 23 countries over the years 1981-2000. It finds that memories of hyperinflation are there to last, whereas those of less drastic inflation experiences tend to erode after around 10 to 15 years. The recent decline in

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According to a report released today by the American Bankruptcy Institute (ABI), there have now been 1.046 million personal bankruptcies since the start of the year. This is the highest since the first nine months of 2005 when people were rushing to file before the draconian new bankruptcy act of 2005 took effect (still better than the Victorian days of debtor prisons, but not much).   The institute expects to see the total for the year top 1.4 million. I think they are being conservative, especially given the rise in the unemployed, particularly the long-term unemployed. In September, there were 124,709 consumer bankruptcies, up 41% from a year ago. The graph below (from http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/) shows the history of bankruptcy filings since 1996 by quarter. The third quarter numbers come from the monthly ABI numbers; the quarterly numbers are from the administrative office of the U.S. courts.   If ...

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Wednesday September 23, 2009

DrStockPick.com Stock Report!

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Optimized Transportation Management, Inc. (OTCBB: OPTZ), a supply chain logistics company, has signed a letter of intent to merge with Griffin Transport, Inc., a Global Supply Chain Company offering a diversity of logistics services throughout the world. Griffin generated approximately $20 million in gross revenue with a net profit of nearly $1 million. OPTZ’s business plan is to build a full service supply chain logistics company by developing a management system for midsized manufacturers and distributors, thereby providing the

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Today the Census Bureau released its report on incomes, poverty and health insurance coverage for 2008. Most of it was (not surprisingly) bad news. Here are some of the highlights (lowlights?): The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that real median household income in the United States fell 3.6 percent between 2007 and 2008, from $52,163 to $50,303. The nation’s official poverty rate in 2008 was 13.2 percent, up from 12.5 percent in 2007. There were 39.8 million people in poverty in 2008, up from 37.3 million in 2007. The number of people without health insurance coverage rose from 45.7 million in 2007 to 46.3 million in 2008, In 2008, the earnings of women who worked full time, year-round was 77 percent of that for corresponding men, not statistically different from the 2007 ratio. The ...

In my larval, pre-blogging days, I always faced the back-to-school moment with abject dread.  It meant returning to a program of the most severe, mind-numbing regimentation in the ghastly New York City public schools after a summer of idyllic unreality in the New Hampshire woods, where I went to a Lord of the Flies type of summer camp.  And so here I am, many decades later, still uneasy as the final page of the August calendar flies away in a hot Santa Ana wind, and a great hellfire closes in on the far eastern reaches of Los Angeles, and the American money system falls into a peculiar limbo, and every fifth person is out of work, or going bankrupt, or glugging down the seawater of default, or being denied coverage by health insurance that he-or-she has already shelled out ten grand for this year, or getting shot in

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Pretend, just for a moment, that you’re President Obama. You have big spending plans – national health insurance, two wars, and a trillion dollar bailout for your friends on Wall Street. Not to mention paying for the soaring costs of Social Security and Medicare.

Unfortunately, revenues simply aren’t keeping up.

Your Treasury Secretary – accused tax-evader Timothy Geithner – tells you that the unfolding recession is starving the country’s government for tax revenue. Indeed, just as you unveiled your trillion-dollar national health plan, Tricky Timmy informed you that federal tax revenues were dropping the fastest since 1932 – at the height of the Great Depression.

What to do…cut spending? Well, Obama did challenge his cabinet in April to come up with a whopping US$100 million in budget cuts. That’s out of an estimated 2009 budget deficit exceeding US$1 trillion, perhaps more. To put that

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Today, Clear Choice Health Plans, Inc. announced that the company is terminating its business relationship with Adaptis, Inc., its business process outsourcing vendor, following a mutual agreement to stop service. The company also announced that it has started a new five-year contract for BPO services with The TriZetto Group, Inc., an information technology and services company with expertise in the health care industry.

The TriZetto Group will provide claims administration, enrollment administration, billing, mailroom and business rules configuration services. TriZetto will also manage and host the underlying QNXTTM enterprise administration system and related software from its data centers. The transition is expected to be complete in the fourth quarter of 2009.

Patricia Gibford, President and CEO of Clear Choice, stated, “This agreement will enable Clear Choice Health Plans to achieve improved customer service levels through increased accuracy, efficiencies, reduced overhead costs, and improved functions such as claims payment, enrollment, and insurance premium

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I just read a mind blowing article. This is one of the most intense rants I have ever seen. Yet the sad part is the author is not exaggerating. Hat tip to Stewart Dougherty, this piece is an eye opener. I have excerpted the best part: There is accumulating evidence that the Washington – Wall Street moral hazard experiment has gone disastrously wrong, and that just like any other accidental discharge of a deadly virus, the moral hazard virus is now loose and swiftly propagating throughout society. By so blatantly colluding with Wall Street, Washington has lost all moral authority, and the people now have only one place to turn: themselves. An ethic of, “If they can do it, so can I,” is spreading, as people realize that fabric of American society has been shredded and replaced by a free-for-all mentality whereby everyone must fend for oneself in ...