Michael Dueker is Head Economist for North America at Russell Investments and a member of the Blue Chip forecasting panel. In February of 2008 he warned Econbrowser readers that it appeared unlikely that the economy was going to escape the slowdown without a recession. In December of 2008, he predicted in this forum that the recession would last until July or August of 2009, but that employment growth would not resume until March of 2010.

With that track record, we were very interested to learn the latest macroeconomic predictions stemming from Russell's Business Cycle Index, subject to the disclaimer that the content does not constitute investment advice or projections of the stock market or any specific investment.

Current business cycle estimates suggest the economy was out of recession by August 2009; an anemic recovery and a false threat of a double dip await

Michael Dueker

The latent variable behind the

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International banks, the EU and Ukraine have met an agreement on Kiev reforming its gas sector that will allow the country to receive up to $1.7 billion in loans to secure gas transit.  The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development said it could provide $300m for immediate working capital and up to $450m in 2010 for investment.  President Medvedev has opened the 75% Russian-owned $720 million hydropower plant in Tajikistan.  US murmurings about how to limit speculative trading on oil is prompting market figures in Russia to consider how these rules may affect their trading.  TNK-BP will start pumping oil from five new fields in Siberia in 2013 and 2014.  RFE/RL examines the interplay between China, the EU and Russia for control of energy resources in central Asia, with analysts describing the efficiency of China's strategy, ...