Chicago, IL – November 24, 2009 – Zacks.com announces the list of stocks featured in the Analyst Blog. Every day the Zacks Equity Research analysts discuss the latest news and events impacting stocks and the financial markets. Stocks recently featured in the blog include: Las Vegas Sands (LVS), Citigroup (C), Goldman Sachs (GS), Barclays PLC (BCS) and UBS AG (UBS).

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Here are highlights from Monday’s Analyst Blog:

Sands China Raises $2.5B in IPO

Las Vegas Sands (LVS) Macau unit, Sand China raised $2.5 billion through its Hong Kong initial public offering (IPO). The company has priced the IPO for 1.87 billion shares at HK$10.38 per share, the low end of the expected HK$10.38-HK$13.88 range.

The proceeds from this offering, combined with $1.75 billion in bank financing, would aid Sands China to restart its Macau's Cotai Strip construction projects. Last year, the company was forced to halt its casino expansion projects in Macau due to financial constraints, at which time it laid off 11,000 workers.

The IPO is being handled by five investment banks. Citigroup (C) and Goldman Sachs (GS) are the joint global coordinators for the offer while Barclays PLC (BCS), BNP Paribas SA and UBS AG (UBS) are the underwriters.

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Zacks Equity Research provides the best of quantitative and qualitative analysis to help investors know what stocks to buy and which to sell for the long-term.

Continuous coverage is provided for a universe of 1,150 publicly traded stocks. Our analysts are organized by industry which gives them keen insights to developments that affect company profits and stock performance. Recommendations and target prices are six-month time horizons.

Zacks "Profit from the Pros" e-mail newsletter provides highlights of the latest analysis from Zacks Equity Research. Subscribe to this free newsletter today: http://at.zacks.com/?id=5517

About Zacks

Zacks.com is a property of Zacks Investment Research, Inc., which was formed in 1978 by Leonard Zacks. As a PhD in mathematics Len knew he could find patterns in stock market data that would lead to superior investment results. Amongst his many accomplishments was the formation of his proprietary stock picking system; the Zacks Rank, which continues to outperform the market by nearly a 3 to 1 margin. The best way to unlock the profitable stock recommendations and market insights of Zacks Investment Research is through our free daily email newsletter; Profit from the Pros. In short, it's your steady flow of Profitable ideas GUARANTEED to be worth your time! Register for your free subscription to Profit from the Pros at http://at.zacks.com/?id=5518.

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• Tyson Foods (NYSE:TSN) reported better-than-expected earnings of 28 cents a share, beating Zacks estimates by 2 cents, on revenues of $7.2 billion, which exceeded Zacks estimates of $6.85 billion

• India’s Reliance Industries bid $12 billion in cash for Lyondell Bassell when it exits bankruptcy

• Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) is reportedly in discussions with News Corp. (NASDAQ:NWSA) to "de-index" the firm's news websites from Google (NASDAQ:GOOG)

• Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO) announced plans to more than double the number of its bottling plants in China over the next ten years as part of its goal to triple sales to the country

• Hershey (NYSE:HSY) trust encouraged the firm to counter Kraft's (NYSE:KFT) hostile, $16.2 billion bid with its own, $17 billion offer

• According to S&P most US banks are failing to meet adequacy standards comfortably enough to avoid ratings downgrades. Both HSBC (NYSE:HBC) and Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) showed stronger-than-average balance sheets, with UBS (NYSE:UBS) and Citigroup (NYSE:C) well below average

• Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE:AMD) rose 10.6% yesterday. The firm announced a private debt offering of $500 million of senior notes. This morning's news saw FBR Research raising its price target to $9 from $8, while maintaining a "market perform" opinion

• Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) reiterated its "buy" rating on CVS Caremark (NYSE:CVS), saying the shares are cheap at current levels.  The firm said at $30, CVS is selling at just 10.6 times 2010 estimates, below a two year, 14x average, with long-term growth of 13% anticipated

• Reports said Blackstone (NYSE:BX) plans to acquire Birds Eye Foods, the largest US frozen-vegetable company, for over $1.3 billion in an all-cash deal

• Tenneco (NYSE:TEN) priced a 12 million share offering at $16.50 per share for $187 million

• Sears Holding (NASDAQ:SHLD) reported a third quarter loss of 81 cents, less than the $1.09 loss expected, on better-than-expected revenues of $10.19 billion

• Dick's Sporting Goods (NYSE:DKS) reported third quarter earnings of 16 cents a share, ahead of estimates by 7 cents as revenues of $990 million topped expectations of $961 million.  The company said it expect fourth-quarter earnings of 41 cents to 46 cents a share

• Children's Place (NASDAQ:PLCE) reported in-line earnings of $1.38 on in-line revenues of $463 million. Comparable sales fell 2%

• Williams-Sonoma (NYSE:WSM) third quarter beat by 11 cents as earnings posted at 16 cents and revenues exceeded estimates at $729 million

Gold advanced 2% to fresh record highs; and the price of silver jumped 5.9%.  The initial gains in the equity prices followed strength in Asian markets yesterday.  Strength in Asia was partly helped by reports that said Japanese economy grew at its fastest pace in over two years, up 1.2% during the third quarter.  To add to the bullish mood in the region, leaders of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation promised to keep the stimulus measures in place.

On Monday, the 30-stock Dow Jones industrial average rose 136.49 points, or 1.33%, to 10,406.96. The broad Standard & Poor's 500-stock index was up 15.82 points, or 1.45%, at 1,109.30. The tech-heavy Nasdaq composite index gained 29.97 points, or 1.38%, to 2,197.85.  On the New York Stock Exchange, 25 stocks were higher in price for every six that declined.

Bernanke warned of threatening headwinds from rising unemployment and tight credit but added comments supporting the government’s stimulus measures.  Yields on US Treasuries declined, with the yield on the 2-years touching its lowest since last January.  At session's end, Meredith Whitney questioned the fundamentals of the current stock market rally, and said she expected a double-dip recession next year.

Analysts, meanwhile, raised their ratings on number of firms.  Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) raised its rating on Nordstrom (NYSE:JWN) from "neutral" to "buy," saying the firm would be a "key beneficiary of a recovery in high-end consumer" demand.  Goldman's analysts also started their coverage on Dell (NASDAQ:DELL) with a "buy" rating, saying the company would benefit from the PC upgrade cycle.  JP Morgan's (NYSE:JPM) added US Steel (NYSE:X) and AK Steel (NYSE:AKS) to its focus list.

A number of key retailer results are slated for today's release, looked to for guidance on current consumer demand. Among companies reporting today are: Home Depot (NYSE:HD), Target (NYSE:TGT), TJ Maxx (NYSE:TJX), Saks (NYSE:SKS), Autodesk (NASDAQ:ADSK), and Salesforce.com (NYSE:CRM).

The table at the right summarizes the percent change between January 6 and November 11 in the cash prices of 19 commodities reported in the Wall Street Journal (downloaded via Webstract). The average commodity in this list has appreciated 37% since the start of the year.

A recent paper by Ke Tang and Wei Xiong documents an increasing tendency for commodity prices to move together over the last few years. A decade ago, what happened to oil prices was largely unrelated to movements in most other commodity prices. The graphs below show how the correlations between oil prices and the prices of four representative commodities have increased significantly over time.

Correlation (using a rolling sample beginning one year before indicated date) between returns on oil and specified commodity. Source: Tang and Xiong (2009).

One explanation I often see in the popular press is that movements in commodity prices are driven by changes in the value of the dollar relative to other currencies. However, the magnitude of movements in commodity prices greatly exceeds the size of changes in the exchange rate. For example, the table above shows that since the start of this year oil prices have increased five times as much as the dollar price of a euro; see also Steve Gordon's graphs. While the depreciation of the dollar is part of the story, most of the explanation must be found elsewhere.

Another important factor is resurging real economic growth outside the United States, which produces pressures for both the dollar to depreciate and the real price of commodities to appreciate. According to this theory, the increasing correlations between commodity prices results from the fact that countries like China are so much more important for the world economy today than they were a decade ago.

A third explanation is that investors are making increasing use of commodities as an investment class. Although Treasury Inflation Protected Securities offer a hedge against an increase in the U.S. consumer price index, they don't offer protection for foreign investors against depreciation of the dollar. Insofar as increases in the prices of commodities like oil may depress real economic activity, holding commodities as an investment also offers useful diversification against risks to equities. Particularly when interest rates are low, there is an incentive to hoard physical commodities as an investment vehicle.

The paper by Tang and Xiong proposes that the increased use of commodities as a financial investment accounts for the increasing correlation among commodity price changes over time. In support of that claim, they note the growing popularity of investment strategies based on the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index or the Dow Jones Commodity Index. Tang and Xiong document that correlations among commodities included in the indexes have increased faster than those not included. For example, one of the regressions they estimate relates the return on commodity i to equity returns, bond yields, the value of the dollar, and oil prices, where the coefficients are allowed to grow with time at different rates before and after 2004, and with different trends on these coefficients estimated for commodities included in indexes as for those excluded. The figure below shows their estimated time path for the coefficient on oil prices comparing the indexed and non-indexed groups.

Coefficient relating return on average commodity to return on oil as a function of time for commodities included in the GS or DJ indexes (top curve) and those excluded (bottom curve). Source: Tang and Xiong (2009).

For any of the explanations in this third class, one of the important challenges is to reconcile the story of commodity speculation with supply and demand for the underlying physical commodity. If we propose that speculators have driven the price of the commodity up, the physical quantity demanded should decline as a result. In order to be sustained, a coherent speculation-based theory of commodity price appreciation requires increased physical storage of the commodity.

The solid black curve in the figure below plots the typical U.S. crude oil stocks (excluding those held in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) for each week of the year, based on the average over 1990-2007. The red line gives the actual values for 2008, which were significantly below the historical average, particularly in the spring of 2008 when oil prices were rising so dramatically. Those below-normal inventories were one reason I focused on what was going on to the fundamentals of supply and demand in trying to understand the behavior of oil markets in the first half of 2008.

Weekly U.S. crude oil ending stocks, excluding SPR, in thousands of barrels, from EIA. Black line: average over 1990-2007. Red: 2008. Green: 2009.

On the other hand, inventories of crude oil this year, shown in green above, have been substantially above normal, meaning that in the absence of that oil going into storage, we would have expected to see lower oil prices than we currently have.

Moreover, much of the current stockpiling may be taking place outside the United States. For example, Yves Smith noted this story from Bloomberg last August:

Copper, nickel and other base metals stockpiled by speculative Chinese investors including pig farmers may be sold when "market sentiment turns," said Scotia Capital Inc.

A price surge and easy bank credit this year encouraged pig farmers, stock brokers and businessmen to buy copper and nickel for speculation, Liu Na, an analyst with Scotia Capital, wrote in a note dated Aug. 17, citing reports from the state-owned China Central Television....

"These stockpiles are in 'weak hands' as speculators have no real use for base metals," Liu wrote. "When the market sentiment turns, they are very likely to turn into quick sellers, especially when the bank's money is involved."

I also found this November 3 story from the Financial Times of interest:

Gold prices continued to rise on Wednesday extending the all-time highs which followed India's central bank bought 200 tonnes of the precious metal, swapping dollars for bullion as the country's finance minister warned the economies of the US and Europe had "collapsed".

India's decision to exchange $6.7bn for gold equivalent to 8 per cent of world annual mine production sent the strongest signal yet that Asian countries were moving away from the US currency.

Policy-makers in the Federal Reserve have traditionally thought of inflation as a broad movement in all wages and prices, which to some extent is under their control, and viewed changes in relative commodity prices as outside their control. I believe that this is not the correct understanding of the current situation. Concerns about inflation, particularly on the part of foreign dollar-holders, are likely to show up first in the relative prices of internationally traded commodities. Insofar as these relative price changes can be destabilizing in themselves, it cannot be wise for U.S. policy-makers to ignore them.

• Dell (NASDAQ:DELL) announced plans to enter the smartphone business, in partnership with China Mobile and Claro. Its first product, the Mini 3, will be designed around Google's (NASDAQ:GOOG) Android operating system

• Disney (NYSE:DIS) reported fiscal fourth quarter results after yesterday's close, with earnings ex-items coming in 5 cents a share better-than-expected at 46 cents. Revenues of $9.87 billion came in well ahead of Zacks estimates of $9.18 billion

• McDonald's (NYSE:MCD) addressed its plans to open 1,000 additional restaurants next year, and provide an image makeover to the rest.  The firm set targets for average annual sales growth of 3-5% and average annual operating earnings growth of 6-7%

• Abercrombie and Fitch (NYSE:ANF) reported third quarter non-GAAP earnings of 30 cents a share, well above Zacks estimates of 20 cents, as revenues of $765.4 million topped Zacks estimates of $763 million

• The rue21 IPO of 6,765,437 common shares was priced at $19.00 per share. The stock will trade on the NASDAQ with the symbol RUE

• Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) upgraded Goodyear Tire (NYSE:GT) shares to "buy"

• JP Morgan (NYSE:JPM) plans to reinstate 401K matching programs starting with 2009 as well as plans to hire 1,200 mortgage officers

• Yahoo (NASDAQ:YHOO) CEO Bartz said the company is hiring again as the firm expects to increase its operating profit margin to the 15-20% range on cost cutting and sales growth

• Adobe Systems (NASDAQ:ADBE) said it plans to cut 680 jobs, or about 9% of its workforce, as part of a restructuring plan.  The company said the move would result in pre-tax charges of $65 million to $71 million, with $18 million to $20 million to be taken in the fourth quarter

• Monsanto (NYSE:MON) confirmed its full-year 2010 earnings outlook and said it still sees a 2012 gross profit of at least $8.6 billion, claiming an accelerated launch of new corn and soybean products

• Bond insurer, Ambac Financial Group (NYSE:ABK) warned of a possible bankruptcy protection filing in its 10-Q

• Reports said General Electric (NYSE:GE) is in talks with United Technologies (NYSE:UTX) to sell its security systems unit for over $1.5 billion

• Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) upgraded Toll Brothers (NYSE:TOL) with a price target range of $24-$26

• Deutsche Bank (NYSE:DB) upgraded Smithfield Foods (NYSE:SFD) raising the price target from $12 to $20 due to an improving pork market

• Flowers Foods (NYSE:FLO) reported inline earnings of 34 cents a share on revenues of $603 million, off Zacks estimates of $617 million

• Electronic Arts (NASDAQ:ERTS) said it plans to cut 1500 additional jobs. The firm reported second quarter adjusted earnings of 6 cents, a one penny miss, on revenues of $1.15 billion, which slightly topped Street projections of $1.12 billion. The firm forecast 2010 earnings of $0.70-$1.00, topping estimates of 89 cents on revenues of $4.2-$4.4 billion versus estimates of $4.26 billion

• Cadbury (NYSE:CBY) rejected the latest Kraft (NYSE:KFT) bid calling it "derisory"

• Moody's (NYSE:MCO) commented that AIG (NYSE:AIG) will be able to repay its Federal loans

• Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) lifted its growth expectations for the semiconductor group following release of third quarter numbers. Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) remained its first pick within the group, with "outperform" ratings also on Micron Tech (NYSE:MU) and Xilinx (NASDAQ:XLNX). Analysts increased 2010 growth expectations of 25% for the industry from 10-20% prior

• Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) added Polo Ralph Lauren (NYSE:RL) to its Conviction Buy List, with a price target of $94

• Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) also added Kroger (NYSE:KR) to its Conviction Buy List, with a price target of $27

• Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) removed Coca-Cola Enterprises (NYSE:CCE) from its Conviction Buy List, but maintained a "buy" rating on the shares

• Tyco International (NYSE:TYC) released better-than-expected third quarter earnings of 61 cents a share, 7 cents above estimates, on revenues of $4.42 billion, slightly higher than estimates of $4.32 billion

• Burlington Northern (NYSE:BNI) CEO advised Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK.A) is liquidating shares of rival railroads Norfolk Southern Corp. (NYSE:NSC) and Union Pacific (NYSE:UNP) as it readies its purchase of Burlington

• Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) moved further into the market for digital advertising on cell phones with the acquisition of AdMob for $750 million

• Northrop Grumman (NYSE:NOC) announced it is selling its TASC consulting operations to two private equity firms for $1.65 billion

• About $30 billion was the agreed-to valuation which General Electric (NYSE:GE) and Comcast (NASDAQ:CMCSA) placed on the joint venture between NBC Universal and Comcast

• Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) upgraded Adobe Systems (NASDAQ:ADBE) to "buy," and lifted its price target to $42

• Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) added Lexmark (NYSE:LXK) to its Conviction Sell list

• KBW upgraded Blackstone Group (NYSE:BX) shares to "outperform" with a price target of $18.50

• Windstream (NYSE:WIN) reported third-quarter earnings of 24 cents a share, two cents over Zacks estimates, on revenues of $734 million, below Zacks estimates of $747 million

• DISH Network (NASDAQ:DISH) reported third-quarter earnings of 18 cents, 25 cents under Zacks estimates, on revenues of $2.89 billion, which missed Zacks estimates of $2.93 billion

• MedcoHealth Solutions (NYSE:MHS) reported third quarter earnings of 75 cents ex-items, 4 cents above Zacks estimates, on revenues of $14.80 billion, up from estimates of $14.71 billion

• Miller Tabek upgraded entertainment stocks such as CBS (NYSE:CBS), Entravision (NYSE:EVC), News Corp. (NASDAQ:NWS), Viacom (NYSE:VIA.B), and Disney (NYSE:DIS) from "neutral" to "buy"

• Disney (NYSE:DIS) said China approved its plans for a $3.5 billion theme park in Shanghai, set to open in 2014 at the earliest

• Time Warner (NYSE:TWX) reported third quarter earnings of 61 cents a share, ahead of Zacks estimates of 52 cents.  Revenue of $7.14 billion was almost inline with Zacks estimates.  The firm said it sees full-year earnings of at least $2.05

• Garmin (NASDAQ:GRMN) reported third quarter earnings of $1.02 a share, versus Zacks estimates of 70 cents on revenues of $781 million, which beat Zacks estimates of $695 million

• Energizer Holdings (NYSE:ENR) was removed from Goldman Sachs' (NYSE:GS) Conviction Buy List, on the outlook for disappointment in its margin recovery

The Nikkei 225 stock average fell 1.8% to 9,891.10 and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index plunged 2.3% to 21,264.99 points. In Mainland China, the Shanghai Composite Index dropped 2.3% to close at 2,960.47.  All other major indices in the region ended in the red.   

On Wednesday, US stocks tumbled after a weaker-than-anticipated new home sales report aggravated concerns that the seven-month old rally has gone ahead of any economic recovery.  To add to the bearish sentiment Goldman Sachs lowered its projection for the third-quarter gross domestic product.  The government's report on third-quarter GDP is due Thursday.  Goldman Sachs said it now predicts third-quarter GDP rose at an annual rate of 2.7%, weaker than its earlier forecast of a 3% rise. 

This morning the Commerce Department reported the economy grew at a 3.5% rate.  The economy's return to growth follows four straight declines. The stimulus spending and the government ‘s cash-for-clunkers program is expected to have boosted consumer spending in the quarter, with residential investments also higher.

The Dow Jones industrial average dropped 119 points, or 1.2%, to close at 9,762.69 and the S&P 500 index declined 21 points, or 2%, to close at 1,042.63. The Nasdaq composite plunged 56 points, or 2.7%, to close at 2,059.61.  Volume on the NYSE jumped to 1.68 billion shares as declining issues ran ahead of those that advanced by a whopping nine-to-one margin.  The market's volatility index, the CBOE Vix, continued higher, up 12.4% Wednesday to 27.91.  Riding high on their safe-haven appeal, US Treasuries headed higher and the $41 billion 5-year note auction received good response. Prices on the 10-year increased 10/32 in price, dropping the yield to 3.415%.

All ten S&P500 sectors were in the red yesterday, led by falls in basic materials (-4.0%), oil and gas (-3.2%), financials (-2.9%) and industrials (-2.6%).  The US dollar continued its advance for the fifth straight day, trading up 0.5% against a basket of currencies.  The dollar’s rise saw commodities retreating. Crude prices fell 2.8% to $77.79.

Today's reports include: Allergan (NYSE:AGN), Eastman Kodak (NYSE:EK), ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM), Monster Worldwide (NYSE:MWW), Procter & Gamble (NYSE:PG), and Sprint (NYSE:S).

Chicago, IL – October 22, 2009 – Zacks.com announces the list of stocks featured in the Analyst Blog. Every day the Zacks Equity Research analysts discuss the latest news and events impacting stocks and the financial markets. Stocks recently featured in the blog include: Morgan Stanley (MS), Goldman Sachs (GS), St. Jude Medical, Inc. (STJ), Medtronic Inc. (MDT) and Boston Scientific Corporation (BSX).

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Here are highlights from Wednesday’s AnalystBlog:

Morgan Stanley Finally Profits

Morgan Stanley (MS) reported third-quarter 2009 income of $498 million this morning or 38 cents per share, compared with a loss of $159 million or $1.37 per share in the prior quarter and an income of $7.7 billion, or $7.38 per share a year ago. The results were much ahead of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 30 cents per share.

The results marked the first quarter of income in a year’s time. Results were aided by robust underwriting revenues in the investment banking operation resulting from higher levels of market activity, strong growth in fixed income sales and trading, commodities, prime brokerage and wealth management business, which offset losses in commercial real estate.

Unlike the preceding qaurters, the results were in line with strong results from competitors like Goldman Sachs (GS), which has been grabbing market share after the financial crisis.

St. Jude Beats Zacks Estimate

St. Jude Medical, Inc. (STJ) today reported financial results for the third quarter of 2009 before the market opened. Earnings per share came in at 59 cents, compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 58 cents and the year-ago earnings of 54 cents.

Net sales in the reported quarter increased 7% year over year to approximately $1.2 billion. Excluding an unfavorable foreign exchange translation (FX), net sales increased 10% year over year. Growth was witnessed across all the business segments. However, the company’s domestic revenues were below expectation primarily due to lack of purchase of cardiac rhythm management (CRM) devices by roughly 50 hospitals in the U.S.

St. Jude’s cash and cash equivalents stood at approximately $798.3 million at the end of the reported quarter. The company ended the quarter with an outstanding debt of roughly $2.0 billion.

St. Jude has provided earnings per share guidance for the fourth quarter and full fiscal 2009. For the fourth quarter, earnings per share are expected between 61 and 63 cents. For full fiscal 2009, earnings per share are expected between $2.41 and $2.43.

St. Jude is a leading medical devices manufacturer that designs, manufactures and distributes medical devices to treat cardiovascular and neurological conditions.

Presently, St. Jude Medical holds the #2 market position for ICDs and pacemakers behind Medtronic Inc. (MDT) but ahead of Boston Scientific Corporation (BSX). This segment is the company’s largest in terms of revenues. St. Jude also holds the #2 market position behind Medtronic in neuromodulation.

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About Zacks Equity Research

Zacks Equity Research provides the best of quantitative and qualitative analysis to help investors know what stocks to buy and which to sell for the long-term.

Continuous coverage is provided for a universe of 1,150 publicly traded stocks. Our analysts are organized by industry which gives them keen insights to developments that affect company profits and stock performance. Recommendations and target prices are six-month time horizons.

Zacks "Profit from the Pros" e-mail newsletter provides highlights of the latest analysis from Zacks Equity Research. Subscribe to this free newsletter today: http://at.zacks.com/?id=5517

About Zacks

Zacks.com is a property of Zacks Investment Research, Inc., which was formed in 1978 by Leonard Zacks. As a PhD in mathematics Len knew he could find patterns in stock market data that would lead to superior investment results. Amongst his many accomplishments was the formation of his proprietary stock picking system; the Zacks Rank, which continues to outperform the market by nearly a 3 to 1 margin. The best way to unlock the profitable stock recommendations and market insights of Zacks Investment Research is through our free daily email newsletter; Profit from the Pros. In short, it's your steady flow of Profitable ideas GUARANTEED to be worth your time! Register for your free subscription to Profit from the Pros at http://at.zacks.com/?id=5518.

Visit http://www.zacks.com/performance for information about the performance numbers displayed in this press release.

Follow us on Twitter: http://twitter.com/zacksresearch

Join us on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/home.php#/pages/Zacks-Investment-Research/57553657748?ref=ts

Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investors should always research companies and securities before making any investments. Nothing herein should be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security.

Contact:
Mark Vickery
Web Content Editor
312-265-9380
Visit: www.zacks.com

The Dow Jones industrial average closed above the 10,000 level for the second-successive day, edging up 47 points, or 0.5%.  The S&P 500 index edged up 4 points, or 0.4% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq composite ended the day virtually flat.  The gains in the Dow average were led by Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) whose shares jumped 2.9%.  The Windows 7 is slated for release on October 22.

Among energy stocks, Chevron (NYSE:CVX) and ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) shares climbed 1.6% and 1.5%, respectively, as crude prices jumped to their highest levels of the year.  Meanwhile, the US Department of Energy said gasoline stockpiles fell 5.2 million barrels per day last week, well below expectations of 700,000 decline.

Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) rose 1.7% after it completed its acquisition of Wyeth.

Nevertheless, weakness in financial sector shares, off 0.6%, hurt sentiment even as Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) reported estimate-topping numbers.  Citigroup's (NYSE:C) strong trading returns were overcome by increasing consumer loan losses.  Citi's (NYSE:C) CEO Vikram Pandit warned, "US consumer credit remains the number one issue affecting our near-term results." JP Morgan (NYSE:JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon warned that level of loan losses are likely to remain high. 

Tech shares also failed to advance, even as IBM (NYSE:IBM) raised its earnings outlook and reported numbers that were above Street projections.  Advanced Micro Devices' (NYSE:AMD) narrower-than-expected loss and the return of its core chip-making operations to profitability failed to lift sentiments either.  However, Google's (NASDAQ:GOOG) better-than-expected results were helped by return to sequential quarterly growth, a 5% increase in average cost-per-clicks over the second quarter, and a positive impact from the declining dollar.  Shares in Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) rose 3.6% in after-hours trading as CEO Eric Schmidt noted, "While there are a lot of uncertainties about the pace of [the] economic recovery, we believe the worst of the recession is behind us and now feel confident about investing heavily in our future."

Today's expected results include a number of significant results from companies such as Bank of America (NYSE:BAC), Genuine Parts (NYSE:GPC), General Electric (NYSE:GE), and Mattel (NYSE:MAT). Also reporting are: Halliburton (NYSE:HAL) and First Horizon National (NYSE:FHN).

The company's series of steps included labor contract concessions expected to cut $20 million yearly in operating costs, consolidation of printing facilities projected to save $18 million a year, reduction in compensation for managers, and a rise in prices for both newsstand and home delivery of the paper. The company is also viewing options to price its online contents on its website, Boston.com.

The newspaper industry has long been grappling with the slump in advertising demand amid the global meltdown, as advertisers are migrating to the Internet due to increasing online readership and lower ad prices.

Earlier in August 2009, The New York Times Company hired Goldman Sachs to explore strategic alternatives for its New England Media Group, which includes Boston Globe, Boston.com, and the Worcester Telegram & Gazette. The company received offers from a private equity investment firm, Platinum Equity, and another from a group led by Stephen Taylor, whose family had sold Boston Globe to The New York Times Company in 1993 for $1.1 billion.

Although the company abandoned the plan to sell Boston Globe, it is still exploring options for the Worcester Telegram & Gazette.

In a separate story, The New York Times Company is trying to sell its minority stake in the New England Sports Ventures that owns the Boston Red Sox baseball team and related cable television properties.

On Wednesday, the Dow Jones industrial average jumped 144.80 points, or 1.5%, to 10,015.86, its biggest one-day gain since August 21 and highest close since October 3 last year.  The Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 18.83 points, or 1.8%, to 1,092.02, it new 2009 high.  The Nasdaq composite index surged 32.34 points, or 1.5%, to 2,172.23.  Since hitting their 12-year lows in March of this year, the S&P 500 has jumped more than 61% as of Wednesday's close, and the Dow is up 53%.

Amid an improving global economic sentiment, the Dow’s brush with the 10,000-mark was a foregone conclusion but the seven-month old rally has made many wonder if a sharp correction is in the offing.  That correction, though, is yet to materialize and investors have jumped to buy on dips, helping stocks continue their advance.  Nevertheless, it remains to be seen where the markets are headed amid lingering threats like rising unemployment, a weak housing market and sloppy consumer spending.  

Yesterday, crude prices went above the $75 level to close at $75.18 a barrel, its highest close of the year. Gold prices hovered near the $1,065 per ounce level.  Meanwhile, safe-havens such as US Treasuries fell, with the 10-year closing the session off 23/32, as its yield rose to 3.423%.

The fuel for Wednesday's rally was provided by promising earnings results from Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) and JP Morgan (NYSE:JPM), and further helped by CSX’s (NYSE:CSX) strong numbers.  Intel's (NASDAQ:INTC) quarterly results beat expectations, and the chipmaker offered better-than-expected fourth quarter revenue guidance.  JP Morgan’s (NYSE:JPM) better-than-expected results came on the strength of its underwriting revenues offsetting credit card and consumer loan losses; profits rose nearly seven times.  This morning Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) reported numbers that was well above estimates, coming in at $5.25 per share, versus Zacks projections of $4.14 per share, and sharply above last year's $1.81.

Today's schedule contains numbers from such companies as Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS), IBM (NYSE:IBM), Google (NASDAQ:GOOG), Advanced Micro (NYSE:AMD), Harley-Davidson (NYSE:HOG), Safeway (NYSE:SWY).

Gains in commodity prices helped some mid-session buying in energy and material shares but the overall weakness in financial and healthcare stocks kept sentiment in check.  Shares of UnitedHealth Group Inc. (NYSE:UNH) and Aetna Inc. (NYSE:AET) fell more than 3% as the Senate Finance Committee approved an $829 billion plan to overhaul the U.S. health system.  Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) fell 2.4% after the company reported revenue that was below the Street expectations.  However, the company reported higher quarterly earnings, helped by cost-cutting measures and a one-time tax benefit; Johnson &Johnson also raised its full-year guidance.  Nevertheless, shares of the company led the decliners on the DJIA.

The Dow Jones industrial average, which traded 70 points lower in the morning, recovered some ground to close at 9871.06, off 0.2% or 14.74 points, its first decline in four sessions.  The S&P500 retreated 0.3% from a new 2009 high set on Monday.  The tech-heavy NASDAQ, however, finished the day virtually unchanged.  On the NYSE, 1.14 billion shares exchanged hands with decliners ahead of advancing shares by a three-to-two margin.

After Whitney’s downgrade, shares of Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) fell 1.5%, with Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) easing 1.2%, and Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) down 2.0%.

However, after the close, Intel's (NASDAQ:INTC), a DJIA component, results offered to ease some worries.  The company reported third-quarter earnings of 33 cents a share, versus Zacks estimates of 27 cents a share; the company reported revenues of $9.4 billion that was off 8.1% from last year, but bettered Zacks estimates of $9.0 billion.

CSX (NYSE:CSX), joining Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) in painting an upbeat picture.  The company announced third quarter earnings of 74 cents a share, down from 94 cents a year ago, but above Zacks estimates of 71 cents a share as revenues of $2.36 billion bettered estimates of $2.33 billion.

This morning, however, JP Morgan’s (NYSE:JPM) results showed an upside surprise as losses from the firm’s credit cards and other consumer loans businesses were offset by strong underwriting revenues.  Third quarter results were well ahead of Zacks estimates at 82 cents and were sharply up from last year's 9 cents a share.

The US dollar remained under pressure, falling to a fresh 14-month low yesterday.  Strong demand for $30 billion in 3-month and $30 billion in 6-month notes helped support Treasury prices.  Gold prices jumped $7.50 to $1073 and crude prices hit $74.

Companies reporting their results include: Abbott (NYSE:ABT), WW Grainger (NYSE:GWW), Host Hotels and Resorts (NYSE:HST) and Xilinx (NASDAQ:XLNX).

The Dow Jones industrial average, which rose as high as 9931.82 points in the morning, gained 20 points to close at 9885.80.  The broad S&P 500 index rose 4.70 points, or 0.44%, to close at 1,076.19 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq ended the day little changed.  Bond markets were closed for the Columbus Day holiday.  On the New York Stock Exchange, 16 stocks were higher in price for every 14 that fell.

Eight of the ten S&P500 sectors finished higher in yesterday's session. Oil and gas shares led the gainers, adding 1.2% following a 2.1% rise in crude prices to $73.55, its highest since August 24.  DJIA components Chevron (NYSE:CVX) and ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) rose 1.3% and 1.2%, respectively.

Meanwhile, equity prices appear to be taking into consideration upside surprises in last quarter's numbers.  The National Association for Business Economics' survey of its members showed majority believed the recovery has begun, but concerns remain over federal debt and rising unemployment.  Nevertheless, the greenback’s decline is expected to help results of multinational firms with significant overseas exposure.

Also, news emerging from the geopolitical front appears to be less motivating as the head of Homeland Security noted Al-Qaeda members likely within US borders and North Korea reportedly shot off five missiles off its east coast; the reports said the country is preparing to fire more.  Although stocks have had their steepest rally in more than 70 years, doubts remain over an exit strategy from simulative policies amid increasing unemployment levels and housing worries.

Black & Decker (NYSE:BDK) jumped 7.6% Monday after the company's raised its third quarter earnings guidance to 91 cents a share from 35- 45 cents a share on better-than-expected sales, operating margins and tax rate. UBS (NYSE:UBS) downgraded SanDisk (NASDAQ:SNDK) shares to "sell" from "neutral," on concerns of peaking chip demand leaving little scope for price increases.  Ford (NYSE:F) shares jumped 7% after the automaker reported that European sales jumped 12% on strong sales of its subcompact models Ka and Fiesta. Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) shares rose 1.5% after Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) raised its price and earnings target, saying the firm will benefit from next year's recovery in online activity.

Financial shares continued their upward run, adding 0.7%.  A number of banks report their earnings in the coming sessions, including JP Morgan (NYSE:JPM), Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) and Citigroup (NYSE:C).  According to analyst Dick Bove, large-cap banks are expected to perform well, helped by strong trading activity, but Bove noted regional banks could be under pressure due to commercial real estate losses. 

Meanwhile, shares of Deutsche Bank (NYSE:DB) fell 1.6% yesterday after the company’s CEO Ackermann’s comments raised concerns of a capital raising.  This morning influential analyst Meredith Whitney took a cautious stance on Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) and lowered her rating on the bank to "neutral" from "buy" with a $186 price target. 

Today's list of releases includes quarterly earnings reports from companies such as Altera (NASDAQ:ALTR), CSX (NYSE:CSX), Intel (NASDAQ:INTC), and Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ).

• Barclays (NYSE:BCS) reported plans to spin off a $6.35 billion portfolio of complex credit assets as it seeks to clean up its balance sheet

• Phillips Electronics (NYSE:PHG) reported better-than-expected third quarter earnings, helped by cost-cutting measures, although the company said most markets are yet to see recovery

• Deutsche Bank (NYSE:DB) lifted Johnson & Johnson's (NYSE:JNJ) price target to $67 from $63 and maintained its "buy" rating on the stock, as the analyst noted "Ahead of Tuesdays earnings call we are raising our price target to $67 (prior $63) based on improving comparable multiples, new product approvals, stabilization in the global economy, and FX tailwinds all [of] which should add to earnings in 4Q and next year. We expect management will focus on continued healthy trends in its Medical Device & Diagnostic division, which will be the highlight of Tuesday's earnings meeting"

• Goldman Sachs' (NYSE:GS) removed Johnson Controls (NYSE:JCI) from its Conviction Sell list in anticipation of optimism after its October 13 analyst day.  Goldman raised its price target on the firm to $20 from $18

After a two-week selloff, fueled in part by concerns that the seven-month old rally had gotten ahead of any economic recovery, stocks got a boost last week following better-than-estimated economic numbers and Alcoa’s (NYSE:AA) surprise quarterly profit.  That helped investors set aside worries and extend the rally.  Meanwhile, White House economic adviser Lawrence Summers reiterated the Obama administration’s commitment to a strong dollar, citing recent comments by U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner.

This morning’s stock futures show markets are headed for a higher opening as the busy week of earnings commences. Ahead of the market's open, Dow Jones industrial average futures are up 59 points, or 0.6%, to 9,866.  Standard & Poor's 500 index futures gained 7.30 points, or 0.7%, to 1,075.40, while Nasdaq 100 index futures rose 11 points, or 0.6%, to 1,736.50.

On Friday, the Dow Jones industrial average rose 78 points, or 0.8%, to 9,864.94 -- its highest closing level in a year.  The S&P 500 index gained 6 points, or 0.6%, to 1,071.49 and the Nasdaq climbed 15 points, or 0.7%, to 2,139.28.  On the New York Stock Exchange, advancing issues beat those that declined in price by a three-to-two margin.  For the week, the DJIA rose 4% and the S&P 500 index gained 4.5% - their best performance since July.  The Nasdaq advanced 4.5% during the week.

Last week's rally saw all but one of the S&P500 industry sector recording gains.  Only telecommunications shares failed to advance, and fell 5.9%, following AT&T's (NYSE:T) announcement that it plans to allow internet-based phone calls on phones including Apple's (NASDAQ:AAPL) iPhones.  The gains last week were led by basic materials (+8.4%), oil and gas (+7.6%), financials (+6.3%), industrials (+5.0%), tech (+4.9%), consumer services (+4.5%), consumer goods as well as utilities (+2.9%), and health care (+2.7%).  Financials rose after a Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) report recommended large-cap banks. Gains in industrial shares were helped by last week’s fall in dollar and Caterpillar's (NYSE:CAT) announcement that it plans to hike prices globally in 2010.  Retail shares rose after firms reported better-than-expected comparable monthly sales numbers.

This week sees the release of the first big batch of third-quarter earnings.  Companies reporting their numbers include Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ), Intel (NASDAQ:INTC), JP Morgan (NYSE:JPM), Citigroup (NYSE:C), Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS), Nokia (NYSE:NOK), Google (NASDAQ:GOOG), IBM (NYSE:IBM), Bank of America (NYSE:BAC), and General Electric (NYSE:GE).

Chicago, IL – October 12, 2009 – Zacks.com releases the list of companies likely to issue earnings surprises. This week’s list includes Intel (INTC), Goldman Sachs (GS), Google (GOOG), Fairchild Semiconductor International (FCS) and Safeway (SWY). To see more earnings analysis, visit http://at.zacks.com/?id=3207.

Every day, Zacks.com makes 4 stock picks available, free of charge. To see them, go to http://at.zacks.com/?id=5612.

This Week's Events

Large-cap companies will dominate the earnings headlines this week.

Six Dow components, including Intel (INTC), are scheduled to release third-quarter results. Joining them will be Goldman Sachs (GS) and Google (GOOG). In total, we have confirmed reports from 72 companies, 29 of which are in the S&P 500.

There will be quite a bit of economic data published, including CPI and industrial production and capacity utilization. We will also get the minutes from the September Fed meeting, which will be scrutinized for any talking points about the pace of the recovery.

• Wednesday: September retail sales, Fed minutes, August business inventories, weekly crude inventories, weekly mortgage applications
• Thursday: September Consumer Price Index (CPI), October Philadelphia Fed survey, weekly initial jobless claims, weekly natural gas inventories
• Friday: September industrial production and capacity utilization, preliminary October University of Michigan sentiment

Both Council of Economic Advisers Chair Christina Romer and Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Donald Kohn will speak at the National Association for Business Economics' Annual Meeting in St. Louis on Tuesday. Romer has a morning presentation and Kohn will speak in the afternoon. Also on Tuesday, New York Federal Reserve Bank President William Dudley will talk to the Institute of International Bankers.

Fed Governor Daniel Tarullo will testify before a House subcommittee on Wednesday afternoon. His testimony will focus on the state of the banking industry. Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Richard Fisher will appear at a conference in Dallas on Friday. The conference is co-sponsored by SMU's business school.

Though Monday is Columbus Day, both the stock and futures markets will operate on normal hours.

Though stocks are poised to continue the rally, a good reaction to the third-quarter results will be required to get the Dow firmly above 10,000. The key will be whether business conditions improved enough to enable companies to surpass both revenue and earnings forecasts.

Keep in mind the number of reports will jump substantially next week.

Companies That Could Issue Positive Earnings Surprises

Fairchild Semiconductor International (FCS) has topped expectations for 4 consecutive quarters. Another positive surprise could be in works as 4 analysts recently raised their third-quarter profit projections. These revisions have pushed the Zacks Consensus Estimate a penny higher to 7 cents per share. The most accurate estimate is even more bullish at 9 cents per share. FCS is scheduled to report on Thursday, Oct 15, before the start of trading.

More than half of the covering analysts raised their third-quarter profit forecasts on Goldman Sachs (GS) over the past 30 days. These revisions resulted in a 63-cent upward revision in the Zacks Consensus Estimate, to $4.07 per share. The most accurate estimate is even more bullish at $4.16 per share. Last quarter, GS beat expectations by $1.41 per share. Goldman Sachs is scheduled to report on Thursday, Oct 15, after the close of trading.

The third-quarter Zacks Consensus Estimate for Google (GOOG) has risen 2 cents over the past 30 days to $4.66 per share. Positive revisions by about a quarter of the covering analysts are behind the optimism. The most accurate estimate is even more bullish at $4.72 per share. Google has topped expectations for 4 consecutive quarters. Google is scheduled to report on Thursday, Oct 15, after the close of trading.

Five analysts have raised their third-quarter profit forecasts on Intel (INTC) during the past 4 weeks. Due to the fact that more than 30 analysts cover INTC, the changes did not move the Zacks Consensus Estimate from its current level of 27 cents per share. They did, however, result in a slightly more bullish most accurate estimate of 28 cents per share. The semiconductor company has topped expectations during 3 out of the last 4 quarters. Intel is scheduled to report on Tuesday, Oct 13, after the close of trading.

Companies That Could Issue Negative Earnings Surprises

Safeway (SWY) has missed expectations for 4 consecutive quarters. Recent earnings estimate cuts by 2 analysts suggest another disappointment could be forthcoming. The revisions pushed the Zacks Consensus Estimate down a penny to 31 cents per share. The most accurate estimate is more bearish at 28 cents per share. Safeway is scheduled to report on Thursday, Oct 15, before the start of trading.

Charles Rotblut, CFA, is the senior market analyst for Zacks.com.

About the Zacks Rank

Since 1988, the Zacks Rank has proven that "Earnings estimate revisions are the most powerful force impacting stock prices." Since inception in 1988, #1 Rank Stocks have generated an average annual return of +26%. During the 2000-2002 bear market, Zacks #1 Rank stocks gained +43.8%, while the S&P 500 tumbled -37.6%. Also note that the Zacks Rank system has just as many Strong Sell recommendations (Rank #5) as Strong Buy recommendations (Rank #1). Since 1988, Zacks Rank #5 stocks have underperformed the S&P 500 by 111% annually (-0.8% versus +8%). Thus, the Zacks Rank system allows investors to truly manage portfolio trading effectively.

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Investors can find such funds by checking out the entire list of the Zacks #1 Rank International Bond Fixed Income Funds.

3 Solid Samples

Loomis Sayles International Bond A (LSIAX) seeks high total investment return through a combination of high current income and capital appreciation.

The fund normally invests at least 80% of its net assets in fixed-income securities of issuers located outside the United States. It is non-diversified.

Shareholders have to make a minimum initial investment of $2,500 to enter this Zacks#1 Rank (“Strong Buy") fund. It has an expense ratio of 1.10%.

Putnam Global Income A (PGGIX) was incepted in June 1987. The investment seeks current income with preservation of capital and long-term total return as secondary considerations.

The fund primarily invests in investment-grade debt securities. It invests mostly in bonds that have maturities of at least three years.

D. William Kohli has been lead manager at the fund since July 1994. It has topped the total returns of its benchmark index in the last 1-, 3- and 5-year periods.

Goldman Sachs Global Income A (GSGIX) seeks current income; capital appreciation is a secondary consideration. The fund normally invests a bulk of its assets in fixed-income securities.

The fund may invest more than 25% in the securities of corporate and governmental issuers located in Canada, Germany, Japan and the United Kingdom as well as in the securities of US issuers. It must invest at least 30% of assets in securities dominated in US dollar.

The fund enters into foreign currency transactions. It distributes dividends monthly and capital gains annually.

Discover Many More Funds

Learn more about the new Zacks Mutual Fund Rank and discover some of the best market-beating mutual funds by browsing our new mutual funds section. This part of Zacks.com offers a variety of tools, including mutual fund research, a new mutual fund screener, helpful answers to frequently asked questions and quick access to prospectuses and other information.

By applying the Zacks Rank to mutual funds, investors can find funds that not only outpaced the market in the past but are also expected to outperform going forward.

The chart below shows the Counterparty Risk Index (CRI) history since the beginning of 2008. The index is an unweighted average of the credit default swap spreads of 14 major financial institutions. The left-hand scale gives the cost (in basis points) of insuring against default for a five-year term.

The three big spikes on the chart mark the near-failure of Bear Stearns (in March 2008), the Lehman default (September 2008) and renewed concerns over bank safety at the market’s nadir in March 2009.

If crises appeared at six-monthly intervals since last spring, this time we appear to have broken out of the cycle.

What about the individual banks that make up the index? Here is a chart, courtesy of CMA Datavision, of the CDS spreads of the U.S. bank members of the index, plus Barclays and Deutsche Bank, the leading players in the U.S. exchange-traded note market.

Citigroup now ranks as the riskiest U.S. bank, and JP Morgan as the least risky, though it’s fair to say that the CDS spreads have converged significantly and there is far less difference between individual names than there was a year ago.

For the record, here are the levels from earlier today, ranked from least to most expensive to insure against default: JP Morgan (72bp), Barclays (76bp), Deutsche Bank (82bp), Goldman Sachs (107bp), Bank of America (120bp), Merrill Lynch (137bp), Morgan Stanley (140bp) and Citigroup (200bp).

(The fact that the Merrill Lynch CDS trades at a slight premium to that of Bank of America, its owner, is interesting.  This reflects speculation that the broker may yet be spun off from the parent bank, in which case the CDS would follow the reference entity, Dave Klein of Credit Derivatives Research told me.)

The levels should matter to exchange-traded product investors: All of these banks except Citigroup underwrite exchange-traded notes.

Is the worst now over? As Gillian Tett noted in a column in last week’s Financial Times, the concentration of overall (gross) risk in the credit derivatives market amongst the leading banks has actually risen since the AIG bailout of last September, and regulators are still finding it difficult to assess whether banks are handling their net risk exposures sensibly.

And, in what sounds like the ultimate reinsurance spiral, banks have become net sellers of protection on sovereign debt; hardly reassuring if one remembers that the banks are themselves propped up by the governments concerned. Lloyd’s, anyone?

So, while the reduction in overall default risk so far this year will come as a reassurance to investors, these are charts that are worth keeping an eye on.

• After yesterday's close, Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) CEO, Ken Lewis, announced plans to retire. The bank also reported plans to sell its asset-management unit to Ameriprise (NYSE:AMP) for between $900 and $1.2 billion

• Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) received two brokerage upgrades

• Comcast (NASDAQ:CMCSA) denied reports of talks with General Electric (NYSE:GE) over the purchase of a stake in NBC Universal

• Cisco Systems (NASDAQ:CSCO) initiated a $3 billion cash offer for Norwegian video-conferencing firm Tandberg

• Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) was removed from Goldman Sachs' (NYSE:GS) Conviction Buy List, with its "buy" rating maintained and a $30 price target

• Constellation Brands (NYSE:STZ) reported fiscal second quarter results of 45 cents up from estimates of 41 cents equaling last year's 45 cents

• After yesterday's close, Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) CEO, Ken Lewis, announced plans to retire. The bank also reported plans to sell its asset-management unit to Ameriprise (NYSE:AMP) for between $900 and $1.2 billion

• Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) received two brokerage upgrades

• Comcast (NASDAQ:CMCSA) denied reports of talks with General Electric (NYSE:GE) over the purchase of a stake in NBC Universal

• Cisco Systems (NASDAQ:CSCO) initiated a $3 billion cash offer for Norwegian video-conferencing firm Tandberg

• Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) was removed from Goldman Sachs' (NYSE:GS) Conviction Buy List, with its "buy" rating maintained and a $30 price target

• Constellation Brands (NYSE:STZ) reported fiscal second quarter results of 45 cents up from estimates of 41 cents equaling last year's 45 cents

• Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) upgraded Nike (NYSE:NKE) to buy with a target price of $75. The company reported fiscal first quarter earnings of $1.04 per share, up from last year's $1.03 and beat Zacks estimates of 99 cents a share. Revenues fell 12% to $4.8 billion from $5.4 billion a year earlier

• Toyota (NYSE:TM) announced plans to recall 3.8 million vehicles due to potential accelerator pedal problems from floor mats

• Disney (NYSE:DIS) announced publishing unit plans for DisneyDigitalBooks.com, a new subscription-based web service

• Hewlett-Packard (NYSE:HPQ) said it is planning to merge its PC and print operations

• Sony (NYSE:SNE) announced plans to unveil its new Playstation3 game title at movie theatres

• Kraft (NYSE:KFT) received a 6-week deadline for making a formal Cadbury bid from the UK M&A regulator

• MBIA's (NYSE:MBI) main bond insurance unit was downgraded by S&P to non-investment grade status

• Dell (NASDAQ:DELL) revealed a new, high-end, ultra thin PC

• Cameron International (NYSE:CAM) reported a $500 million subsea equipment deal with Petrobras

• Howard Shultz, CEO of Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX), offered high hopes for its Via Ready Brew instant coffee product, claiming it "perhaps the biggest opportunity" in the company's history, amid today's North American launch

• Walgreens' (NYSE:WAG) reported fiscal fourth quarter results of 47 cents ex-items, topping estimates of 39 cents, on sales of $15.7 billion

• Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) lifted price targets on several retailers, including conviction buys on Target (NYSE:TGT) and Macy's (NYSE:M)

• Citigroup (NYSE:C) started coverage of Dr. Pepper Snapple (NYSE:DPS) and Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO) with "buy" recommendations

• Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) upgraded Phillips-Van Heusen (NYSE:PVH) to a "buy" with a price target of $54

The notes offered by this prospectus supplement will not be listed on any securities exchange. Currently, there is no public market for the notes. Barclays, Goldman Sachs (GS) and Wells Fargo (WFC) were the joint book running managers for the sale.

Interest will be payable on the notes on April 1 and Oct. 1 every year at a 4.70% coupon rate. The first interest payment will be made on April 1, 2010. The notes due on Oct. 1, 2019, will be denominated as senior unsecured debt obligations of Burlington.

The company plans to use the net proceeds for general corporate purposes, including potential buyback of common stock, capital expenditures and the repayment of debt. Such debt may include its 7.125% notes, which will mature on Dec. 15, 2010. The notes will not be entitled to the benefit of a sinking fund.

It is to be noted that the Burlington has been able to maintain its ability to pay fixed charges, witnessed by an uptick in the ratio of earnings to fixed charges that stood at 5.04X in 2008, compared to 4.62X in 2007.

Rating agencies Moody’s and S&P have rated the notes Baa1 and BBB, respectively.

In July, Burlington Northern reported operating earnings of $1.18 per share, down 12% year over year. The current economic slowdown is having a deleterious impact on volumes, which fell 13% during the quarter. However, strong utility demand is expected to boost revenue going forward. We maintain a Neutral recommendation on the shares.

• Deutsche Bank (NYSE:DB) cut AutoZone (NYSE:AZO) price target to $150 from $175 but maintained its “hold" rating on the stock

• Reports say modifications on the Boeing (NYSE:BA) 787 Dreamliner test plane suggest the first flight is possible by late October or early November

• The corporate head of Microsoft's (NASDAQ:MSFT) Game Studios division ruled out plans to acquire video game publisher Electronics Arts (NASDAQ:ERTS)

• Abbott Laboratories (NYSE:ABT) has offered to buy the drug unit of Belgian's conglomerate Solvay SA

• Deutsche Bank (NYSE:DB) raised its price target for HB Fuller (NYSE:FUL) to $23 from $18, while maintaining its "hold" rating

• Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) raised its price target on Buffalo Wild Wings (NASDAQ:BWLD) to $46

• Nintendo lowered its Wii price by 20% to $199.99 in the US after meeting increased competition from Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) and Sony (NYSE:SNE)

• Palm (NASDAQ:PALM) said an offering of 20 million shares of its common stock was priced at $16.25 apiece, a 5% discount to Tuesday's closing price

• BlackRock (NYSE:BLK) shares rose 1.4% Wednesday on a Deutsche Bank (NYSE:DB) recommendation

• Cisco (NASDAQ:CSCO) shares fell 2.6% on failure to offer current quarter guidance and comments made by CEO Chambers that "it looks like a gradual recovery," but also warning of a risk that the economy could still retreat

Delta.

The Greek symbol delta is used to represent a measure of change. We see it show up in higher math functions quite heavily. Calculus is built around the idea of rate of change, for instance.

In options, delta represents a measure of the rate of change in the option premium relative to the movement in the underlying security. In other words, delta tells us how much the option premium will change when the stock or other underlying instrument moves. The measure is in percentage terms, so a delta of .75 would indicate that the option premium should move in a positively-correlated direction to the stock move, and the price of that option will go up 75% of the amount the stock moved.

Delta, as with all the Greeks, has a positive or negative sign (+, -). In the case of delta, the sign designates the direction the price of the option moves correlated to the stock move. A positive stock move and a positive delta means the option price goes UP when the stock goes UP. The price of the option will go DOWN when the stock goes DOWN. Conversely, if we have a negatively-signed delta...stock going UP would move the option price DOWN. Stock going DOWN would move the option price UP.

Got that all straight? It's suddenly feeling like a roller coaster ride in here! So to sum it up, a positive delta equals a bullish trade. A negative delta equals a bearish trade. Delta is the only Greek in which the sign (+, -) indicates the directional bias of the trade.

One more thing delta indicates for us about our options: The absolute value of delta on a per contract basis represents the rough likelihood or probability of that option expiring in-the-money (itm) at expiration day. At-the-money (atm) options generally have approximately a .50 delta. Out-of-the-money (otm) options have deltas below 50, in-the-money are above 50. The highest delta of any individual contract is a 1.00 or 100% move tick for tick with the stock. This would be on deep itm options close to expiration.

The many uses of delta and the other Greeks is fodder for another day. Needless to say, complexity can grow at an exponential rate as we investigate these concepts further. Below are a few examples of real contracts with real numbers, and brief hints on what delta tells us about them:

Cisco (CSCO) Jan '10, $24 call trading at $1.24 (bid) to $1.27 (ask). Delta +48.22. Stock trading at $23.46. ATM call option. 50/50 chance of expiring ITM. Positive delta = bullish trade.

Apple (AAPL) Oct $200 put trading at $16.85 (bid) to $17.05 (ask). Delta -77.99. Stock trading at $185.10. ITM put option. 78% chance of exp ITM, it is already significantly ITM so more likely to stay there. Negative delta = bearish trade. Higher delta contracts are more conservative trades when buying.

Goldman Sachs (GS) Apr $210 call trading at $7.55 (bid) to $7.70 (ask). Delta +31.55. Stock trading at $182.97. OTM call option. 31% chance of exp ITM, it has to move significantly to get there. Positive delta = bullish trade. Lower delta contracts are more aggressive trades when buying.

Remember, when the stock moves by $1, the delta of your position tells you how much the price of your option will change and in what direction. A delta of +25 would equate to a .25 increase in the price of that option if the stock rose $1.

Enough math for now. My brain is starting to melt. One last thing to tease all those engineer types out there. The people who first came up with the pricing models and created all this Greek mess earned a Nobel Prize for their efforts. If you want to figure out the algorithms, more power to you!

More to come from our travels to "Greek". Happy trading.

You can learn more about different types of option strategies by downloading our free options booklet: 3 Smart Ways to Make Money with Options (Two of Which You Probably Never Heard About). Just click here.

Disclosure: Officers, directors and/or employees of Zacks Investment Research may own or have sold short securities and/or hold long and/or short positions in options that are mentioned in this material. An affiliated investment advisory firm may own or have sold short securities and/or hold long and/or short positions in options that are mentioned in this material.

Zacks Investment Research

1. CROSSHAIRS TRADING AND REPEATABLE PATTERNS
2. STOCK AND OPTIONS TRADING USING BEER MATH
3. TRADING CONFIDENCE AND THE CROSSHAIRS BATTLE EXIT LINE

• AMR (NYSE:AMR) announced a private offering of $450 million senior secured notes due 2012

• AutoZone (NYSE:AZO) reported fiscal fourth quarter earnings of $4.43 a share versus $3.88 a year ago, a shade below Zacks estimates of $4.45 a share. Sales of $2.23 billion were above prior year's $2.21 billion and above Zacks projections of $2.23 billion

• Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) lifted its price target on Walgreen (NYSE:WAG) to $36 while maintaining a "neutral" rating. Analysts lowered the fourth quarter earnings estimate 2 cents to 38 cents a share, with fiscal year estimates at $1.92, holding 2010 projections at $2.30

• Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) added Jarden (NYSE:JAH) to its Conviction Buy List with a target price of $42, more than 50% above current levels

The 30-share Dow Jones industrial average finished higher by 51 points, or 0.52%, at 9,829.87. The broad Standard & Poor's 500-stock index gained 7 points, or 0.66%, at 1,071.66 and the technology-laden Nasdaq composite index gained 8.26 points, or 0.39%, to 2,146.30.  Treasury prices rallied after the government’s successful auction of $43 billion in two-year notes.

Meanwhile, dollar continued its downward spiral against other major currencies, sending energy and material shares higher.  Gold and crude prices also advanced.  Gold reached $1014 per ounce, up $12.50, and oil, after a 3.3% plunge Monday, went above the $70 level, rising 2.6% to $71.55.  Volume on the NYSE was a modest 1.27 billion shares, with advancing shares ahead of decliners by a seven-to-three margin.

Among the ten S&P500 industry sectors, seven closed higher, led by financial shares (+2.2%), basic materials (+1.9%), industrials (+0.8%).  On the downside, telecommunication shares fell 0.6%, health care stocks eased 0.3%, and utilities edged 0.1% lower.

Twenty of the DJIA's thirty components finished higher yesterday.  On the Dow average, JP Morgan (NYSE:JPM) was the leading gainer, rallying 4.3% to $46.47 after analysts at Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) lifted their third-quarter earnings estimate on the firm to 49 cents per share from 46 cents per share.  Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT) shares jumped 3.6%, following the expected weak dollar benefit to foreign sales.  Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) rose 2.1% after Rochdale Securities’ Richard Bove raised the shares' price target to $25 from $19 due to the firm's recent moves to exit two federal guarantee programs.  However, rumors that CEO Ken Lewis might resign over the Merrill bonus saga kept the stock’s move in check.  Alcoa (NYSE:AA) rose 2.3% after analysts at Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) raised price target on the firm, citing projections for higher aluminum prices.

Analyst upgrades also benefited shares of Macy's (NYSE:M) (+5.1%); Citigroup (NYSE:C) lifted its rating on the shares to "buy" from "hold" on higher revenue expectations.  US Steel (NYSE:X) shares increased 4.6% after Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) changed its recommendation on the stock to "neutral" from "underperform," citing expectations the firm should return to profitability in 2010. Clorox (NYSE:CLX) shares gained 2.6% on speculation of a potential Procter & Gamble (NYSE:PG) bid.  AIG (NYSE:AIG) shares fell 5.4% in a late-session sell-off on talks of a possible secondary offering.  Goldman (NYSE:GS) shares rose 1.7% to $185.52, closing at its highest level since July 2008.

Of key interest today would be the much-expected FOMC policy report, due out at 2:15 ET.  Expectations that the Fed will maintain record low interest rate levels of zero to 0.25% are intact. Most expect the Fed language to support an ongoing accommodative stance.  Moreover, President Obama cautioned that unemployment could even get a little worse in coming months. Therefore, the Fed's $1.75 trillion asset purchase program is likely to remain in place to encourage the recovery's traction.

The European Central Bank has made up to €1bn in extra profits from crisis-related emergency lending, but its caution on unconventional policy measures has curbed potential earnings, analysts estimate. Extra liquidity pumped into the eurozone banking system since the collapse of Lehman Brothers last year has probably generated an extra €900m ($1.5bn, £780m) in profits so far, according to calculations by Goldman Sachs.

Some €300m of the total has been generated since June, when the ECB provided €442bn in one-year loans in its biggest liquidity providing operation. The extra profits are on top of the sums that the ECB normally makes on its market operations. Although the interest rate currently charged by the ECB – 1 per cent – was the lowest in its 11-year history, revenues “remain juicy because of the quantity of liquidity that banks keep hoarding”, said Natacha Valla, European economist at Goldman Sachs in Paris.

From last October the ECB has been meeting, in full, eurozone banks’ demand for liquidity. Ms Valla argued, however, that by sticking largely to using policy instruments already in its armoury the ECB had forgone potentially far higher margins.

Profits on the ECB’s programme to buy €60bn in covered bonds – low risk assets issued by banks and backed by public sector loans and mortgages – could be dwarfed by those on schemes launched by other central banks, which have involved higher risk. The Financial Times reported last month that the US Federal Reserve had made a $14bn profit on its crisis loan programmes, with its purchases of commercial paper among its most lucrative operations.

Instead, the ECB has created arbitrage opportunities for eurozone banks, which have used liquidity provided by the central bank to buy large amounts of government bonds, including from some of the smaller eurozone countries and riskier assets. These, in turn, can be used as collateral to raise fresh funds from the ECB. Eurozone banks’ holdings of euro-denominated government bonds have increased by more than €200bn since last year.

The fund normally invests in equity investments of companies that are well positioned to benefit from the proliferation of technology. It may invest up to 25% of assets in foreign securities, including securities of issuers in emerging markets.

Microsoft Corp. (MSFT), Apple Inc. (AAPL) and American Tower Corp. (AMT) are among the fund's top holdings.

Goldman Sachs Growth & Income (GOIIX) seeks long-term capital appreciation and current income.

The fund invests approximately 60% of total assets in underlying equity funds. It may invest a relatively significant percentage of equity allocation in the structured large-cap growth, value and international equity funds.

Katinka Domotorffy has been lead manager at the fund since December 2001. It has an expense ratio of 0.19%.

Goldman Sachs Emerging Markets Equity A (GEMAX) seeks long-term capital appreciation by primarily investing in equity securities of issuers in emerging countries.

The fund invests in at least six emerging countries, and does not invest more than 35% of assets in securities of issuers in any one emerging country. It may also invest in fixed-income securities of private and government emerging country issuers.

Shareholders have to make a mininmum initial investment of $1,000 to enter this Zacks#1 Rank ("Strong Buy") fund. It pays dividends and capital gains annually.

Zacks Investment Research

Chicago, IL – September 10, 2009 – Three mutual funds rose to the highest level of a new ranking system and are being highlighted today on Zacks.com.

These free "Strong Buy" picks are being made available to promote the new Mutual Fund Rank of the investment world's leading independent research firm.

Highlighted Today: International Bond Fixed Income Funds

Loomis Sayles International Bond A (LSIAX) seeks high total investment return through a combination of high current income and capital appreciation. The fund primarily invests in fixed-income securities of issuers located outside the United States. It has an expense ratio of 1.10%.

Putnam Global Income A (PGGIX) was incepted in June 1987. The investment seeks current income with preservation of capital and long-term total return as secondary considerations. It invests mostly in bonds that have maturities of at least three years. The fund has topped the total returns of its benchmark index in the last 1-, 3- and 5-year periods.

Goldman Sachs Global Income A (GSGIX) seeks current income; capital appreciation is a secondary consideration. The fund normally invests a bulk of its assets in fixed-income securities. It must invest at least 30% of assets in securities dominated in US dollar. The fund enters into foreign currency transactions.

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The greenback remained near its year lows against a basket of currencies while gold prices eased a little to settle at $995.30.  Crude prices were slightly up ahead of the September OPEC meeting.

The Dow Jones industrial average, which rose as much as 80 points earlier in the session, pared some gains to close at 9,547.22, up 49.88 points.  The broad S&P 500 index advanced 7.98 points, or 0.78%, to close at 1,033.37, its best finish so far this year, and the tech-heavy NASDAQ rose 22.62 points, or 1.11%, to close at 2,060.39.  On the NYSE, volume was a moderate 1.24 billion shares as advancing stocks outpaced those that fell seven to three.

Even as unemployment levels continuing to remain vexing, the Fed’s Beige Book revealed “signs of improvements" in 11 of the 12 districts.  Meanwhile, OPEC also exited its monthly meeting with soothing words, leaving production levels unchanged, and asserting current prices were within their desirable range.  Nevertheless, fears of a jobless recovery have given rise to worries that the economic recovery might be reversed after inventory builds and government assistance end.

Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) shares declined even as CEO Steve Jobs made a much-awaited comeback after his almost six-month long medical leave.  The company announced the launch of new products and slashed prices of existing iPod Touch models.  SanDisk (NASDAQ:SNDK) jumped 6.1% to $19.32, its highest close in 11 months; Palm (NASDAQ:PALM) shares declined more than 8.7% after the company announced the launch of its Palm Pixi phones.  The stock was downgraded by Credit Suisse to “neutral" from “outperform."   

Among the S&P500 industry groups, nine recorded gains with industrials (+1.5%) and financials (+1.4%) topping the list.  Among the industrial conglomerates, General Electric (NYSE:GE) advanced 2.6% to $14.87, its highest level since January and Illinois Tool Works (NYSE:ITW) jumped 5% to $43.93.  Goldman (NYSE:GS) raised Illinois Tool Works (NYSE:ITW) to “conviction buy" from “neutral."  Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT) rose 3.1% to $48.41.  GE also benefited from an analyst upgrade from JP Morgan (NYSE:JPM), and a hiked price target from Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS).  Boeing (NYSE:BA) shares added 2.1% following the firm's projection of a return to growth in global air traffic next year.  United Technologies (NYSE:UTX), which rose 1.4%, was also upgraded by Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS).  3M (NYSE:MMM) rose 2.1%

Investors can find such funds by checking out the entire list of the Zacks #1 Rank International Bond Fixed Income Funds.

3 Solid Samples

Loomis Sayles International Bond A (LSIAX) seeks high total investment return through a combination of high current income and capital appreciation.

The fund normally invests at least 80% of its net assets in fixed-income securities of issuers located outside the United States. It is non-diversified.

Shareholders have to make a minimum initial investment of $2,500 to enter this Zacks#1 Rank (“Strong Buy") fund. It has an expense ratio of 1.10%.

Putnam Global Income A (PGGIX) was incepted in June 1987. The investment seeks current income with preservation of capital and long-term total return as secondary considerations.

The fund primarily invests in investment-grade debt securities. It invests mostly in bonds that have maturities of at least three years.

D. William Kohli has been lead manager at the fund since July 1994. It has topped the total returns of its benchmark index in the last 1-, 3- and 5-year periods.

Goldman Sachs Global Income A (GSGIX) seeks current income; capital appreciation is a secondary consideration. The fund normally invests a bulk of its assets in fixed-income securities.

The fund may invest more than 25% in the securities of corporate and governmental issuers located in Canada, Germany, Japan and the United Kingdom as well as in the securities of US issuers. It must invest at least 30% of assets in securities dominated in US dollar.

The fund enters into foreign currency transactions. It distributes dividends monthly and capital gains annually.

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Learn more about the new Zacks Mutual Fund Rank and discover some of the best market-beating mutual funds by browsing our new mutual funds section. This part of Zacks.com offers a variety of tools, including mutual fund research, a new mutual fund screener, helpful answers to frequently asked questions and quick access to prospectuses and other information.

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• Talbots (NYSE:TLB) reported an adjusted fiscal second quarter loss of 33 cents a share, versus estimates of a 52 cents per share loss on revenues of $304.6 million, versus estimates of $309.34 million.  The firm said it sees third quarter losses of 24-30 cents a share, ex-items

• JP Morgan (NYSE:JPM) upgraded UPS (NYSE:UPS) to "overweight" from "neutral" and raised the price target on the firm to $70 from $57

• Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) downgraded DuPont (NYSE:DD) on valuation concerns with a price target of $32

• Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) upped Illinois Tool Works (NYSE:ITW) and added the firm to its Conviction Buy List with a $55 price target

• Palm (NASDAQ:PALM) cut prices on its Pre smartphone, introducing a cheaper and thinner model, "Pixi"

• Apple's (NASDAQ:AAPL) San Francisco event is expected to see a fresh iPod launch, new iTune offerings, an Apple TV tune-up, with hopes of a Steve Jobs appearance

The 30-share Dow Jones industrial average rose 56 points, or 0.6%, to 9,497.34 and the S&P 500 index added 9 points, or 0.9%, to 1,025.39, its highest close in 11 months.  The tech-heavy NASDAQ added 19 points, or 0.94%, to close at 2,037.77 points. On the New York Stock Exchange, advancing issues outpaced those that declined three to one on volume of 1.32 billion shares.  However, a jump in the CBOE Vix volatility measure, which rose 1.4% to 25.62, added a note of caution to the upbeat mood.

Dollar’s plunge to an 11-month low was also due to a Monday release from the United Nations, which again called for less dependence on the greenback as the premier global reserve currency. Indications that China would diversify some of its interests into gold also hurt the dollar, although the size of China's reserves mitigates against much impact.  Nevertheless, the news helped gold prices.  This morning's news indicated Barrick Gold (NYSE:ABX) is planning to raise up to $3.5 billion through a new share offering priced at $36.95 per share.

Yesterday, General Electric (NYSE:GE) was the leading gainer on the DJIA after being upgraded by JP Morgan (NYSE:JPM).  Costco (NASDAQ:COST) advanced 2.3% after two brokerages upgraded the stock. Among tech issues, IBM (NYSE:IBM) retreated 0.3% after it was downgraded; however, the firm noted it is "well ahead" of its 2010 earnings target of $10-$11 per share.  Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE:AMD) surged 14.6% as Barclays Capital (NYSE:BCS) upgraded the shares to "outperform."  AIG (NYSE:AIG) shares slumped 10.5% after Credit Suisse (NYSE:CS) downgraded the stock to "underperform," noting "little to no value for common equity" remains.

Nine of the ten S&P industry groups recorded gains Tuesday , with oil and gas (+2.7%) and basic material shares (+2.1%) leading the list of gainers.  Only healthcare shares registered declines, declining 0.3%.  Crude prices spiked $3.31 to $71.33 on expectations today's OPEC meeting will see no change in the production levels.  Moreover, Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) maintained a favorable long-term view on the group, saying there is an "increasing evidence of a stronger-than-expected recovery in global industrial activity."  Chevron (NYSE:CVX) and ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) shares gained 2.2% and 2.1%, respectively.  Among basic material issues, Alcoa (NYSE:AA) rose 3.5% to $12.60.

In today's Presidential appearance before a rare joint session of Congress, President Obama will attempt to resuscitate his healthcare reform package and counter the groundswell of centrist opposition, which has driven his ratings to a low 52% point.

• AIG (NYSE:AIG) was downgraded to "underperform" at Credit Suisse (NYSE:CS), with its price target lowered to $15 from $30, and 2009 estimate cut to a $13.98 loss, with 2010 initiated at an estimate of $5.70

• Smithfield Foods (NYSE:SFD) reported a fiscal first quarter loss of 56 cents a share, three cent under expectations versus last year's 17 cent loss, on revenues of $2.7 billion, off estimates of $2.8 billion

• Kraft (NYSE:KFT) advised its will continue to pursue its unsolicited offer for Cadbury (NYSE:CBY), after Cadbury rejected the firm's $16.7 billion cash and stock bid

• Airbus turned positive, projecting an air passenger volume rebound. In 2009 passenger volume is estimated to drop 2%, in 2010 to climb 4.6%, and in 2011 to soar 7%

• Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) upgraded Red Hat (NYSE:RHT) to "buy," and raised the price target to $28 from $18

Today, we're fortunate to have Simon van Norden, Professor of Finance at HEC Montréal (École des Hautes Études Commerciales), as a guest blogger.

"Once you've seen one financial market crisis...you've seen one financial market crisis."

-- Attributed to Federal Reserve Board Governor Kevin Warsh by former US Treasury Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy Phillip Swagel in The Financial Crisis: an Inside View, March 2009, p. 4.

The financial crisis has set a lot of records so far; it's certainly the worst US banking crisis of my lifetime. Some, as suggested by the above quote, see such crises as unique events; each one is singular and there's not much to be learned about how to handle one from looking at past crises. For example, there's no precedent that I know of for a banking crisis involves the failure of the biggest counterparties for credit default swaps.

I think a much smaller number of people see the crisis differently; they think of it as another potato, a big one. No two potatoes are exactly alike in size and shape, but they all taste pretty much the same and you can use the same recipe for most of them. For that reason, it's interesting to see to what extent the current crisis behaves like other crises, even if it has some unique features.

I think there's some interesting parallels between the current crisis, the Savings and Loan (S&L) crisis of the 80s and 90s, and the Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) Crisis of 1998. But before I talk about that, let me talk about what a "typical" banking crisis looks like.

The Basel View of "Typical" Banking Crises

If we set the way-back machine to 2004, a time long before terms like ARM, CDS, and AIG entered common conversation, we can see what people thought a typical bank crisis looked like. That's the year the guys in Basel who worry about such things published "Bank Failures in Mature Economies." They looked at the main banking crises in developed countries from 1980 to 2000 and asked themselves what they saw. To be sure, they saw some differences, but they also saw some patterns. Here's part of their main conclusions (note that "credit risk" is Banker for "bad loans").

Most of the widespread [banking] failures required some amount of public support, sometimes in very large amounts. All of the episodes that involved large amounts of public support were caused by credit risk problems. ...The widespread banking crises that involved credit risk were remarkably similar. A period of financial deregulation resulted in rapid growth in lending, particularly in real estate related lending. Rapidly rising real estate prices encouraged more lending, abetted by lax regulatory systems in many cases. When economic recessions occurred, inflated real estate prices collapsed, leading directly to the failures. (BIS, 2004, p.66)

That sounds a lot like what the US (and some other countries) experienced immediately afterwards. There had been some financial deregulation, which was followed by a period of very rapid growth in real-estate-related lending. Rapidly rising real estate values encouraged more lending. The biggest difference seems to be the last point; the recession did not cause real estate prices to collapse; they had peaked by 2006 and fell before the recession started. We could probably also argue about whether it was financial deregulation or "financial innovation that avoided regulations" that helped fuel the increase in real-estate lending. However, in this view the boom and bust cycle in real estate, the subsequent fallout for the banking sector, and the need for a major publicly-funded bailout is not remarkable; we've seen this kind of story before. In fact, Reinhart and Rogoff have gone so far as to tabulate what happens to government debt in the aftermath of a banking crisis. They find that real government debt increases by an average of 86% in the three years after the start of a crisis. So regardless of how you feel about the US government's spending during the crisis, it seems less remarkable when compared to what typically happens in a banking crisis.

Three American Financial Market Crises

More support for the view that banking crises follow similar patterns can be found by comparing the last three US banking crises; the S&L crisis of the late 80s and early 90s, the collapse of LTCM and the most recent crisis. The S&L crisis closely followed the pattern described by the BIS report quoted above; financial deregulation, followed by a rapid growth in real estate lending, creation of local speculative bubbles in real estate prices, and the failure of institutions as bubbles burst (For descriptions of the S&L crisis, see BIS (2004) or the GAO 1996 report). The General Accounting Office put the cost of the S&L bailout to US taxpayers at $132.1 billion, or a bit under 2% of GDP (United States General Accounting Office (1996) "Financial Audit: Resolution Trust Corporation's 1994 and 1995 Financial Statements," Table 3 and author's calculations). That may seem small compared to the size of TARP or this year's projected federal deficit, but it was shocking at the time.

At first glance, the LTCM crisis appears quite different; no bank failed (LTCM was a hedge fund), its failure was unrelated to real estate investment or credit risk, and the crisis was resolved at no cost to the taxpayer. However, the LTCM crisis showed that, as a result of deregulation, a systemic crisis could start outside the regulated banking system. Another GAO study noted:

The LTCM case illustrated that market discipline can break down and showed that potential systemic risk can be posed not only by a cascade of major firm failures, but also by leveraged trading positions. LTCM was able to establish leveraged trading positions of a size that posed potential systemic risk primarily because the banks and securities and futures firms that were its creditors and counterparties failed to enforce their own risk management standards. (US GAO (1999) p. 29)

The same report noted:

• Gaps in [US Government agencies'] regulatory authority limits their ability to identify and mitigate systemic risk (US GAO (1999) p. 24)
• Regulators did not identify weaknesses in firms' risk management practices until after the crisis (US GAO (1999) p. 16)
• Monitoring did not reveal the potential systemic threat posed by LTCM (US GAO (1999) p. 17)

and provided a variety of proposals (some of which are mentioned below) to reform the financial system by reducing systemic risks.

The success of those reforms can be judged by role of similar factors in the most recent US banking crisis. An important factor in the latter has been the role of trading in derivative securities, primarily mortgage-based securities and credit default swaps (CDS). Again, government oversight of this market was limited due to faith in the market's ability to manage its exposure to risk, and was further weakened by divided responsibilities between multiple agencies. Regulators and private lenders alike were again unaware of major firms' exposure to losses on derivative securities; this time even the heads of major financial institutions were not aware of the extent of their own exposures. Again, this was in part due to the lack of transparency, lack of clearing and high leverage afforded by trade in Over-the-Counter (OTC) derivatives (particularly those traded at Bear Stearns.) Again, weaknesses in firms' risk management practices became apparent only in hindsight. Again, major financial firms that were not regulated as traditional deposit-taking banks took on highly-leveraged positions and posed major systemic threats to the banking system. These included several investment banks (such as Bear Stearns, Goldman Sachs, Lehman Brothers, and CitiGroup) and the insurance company AIG.

Conclusion

Looking at recent events from this perspective, I still see the size of the losses as breathtaking, but the causes and dynamics seem much more familiar. What bothers me is that some of the suggested solutions sound pretty familiar too; make derivative trading more transparent, improve coordination among the regulators, give regulators more power to control systemic risk in new places, and so on. Despite that, not only was there another crisis, but it was much larger than the two previous crises combined.

This post written by Simon van Norden.

• BP (NYSE:BP) announced a "giant" new oil discovery in the Gulf of Mexico, named "Tiber," one of the deepest wells ever drilled

• Acadia Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:ACAD) reported disappointing Phase III trail results for its primavanserin drug in treatment of Parkinson's disease psychosis

• Joy Global (NASDAQ:JOYC) announced fiscal third quarter earnings of $1.21 per share, beating estimates of 95 cents a share, on revenues of $956 million, up from projections of $902.4 million. The firm said it sees 2009 revenues to equal its prior $3.5 billion to $3.6 billion guidance, and raised its earnings guidance to $4.00 to $4.20 per share, from its view of $3.80 to $4.00 per share

• Textron (NYSE:TXT) was upgraded by Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) to "buy" from "neutral."  Goldman also added the firm to its conviction buy list with a price target of $23

• Citigroup (NYSE:C) upgraded Cooper Industries (NYSE:CBE) and cut the ratings on Rockwell Automation (NYSE:ROK) to "sell"

Chicago, IL – September 2, 2009 – Zacks.com announces the list of stocks featured in the Analyst Blog. Every day the Zacks Equity Research analysts discuss the latest news and events impacting stocks and the financial markets. Stocks recently featured in the blog include: Bank of America Corporation (BAC), Morgan Stanley (MS), Bank of New York Mellon Corporation (BK), Goldman Sachs (GS) and U.S. Bancorp (USB).

Get the most recent insight from Zacks Equity Research with the free Profit from the Pros newsletter: http://at.zacks.com/?id=5513

Here are highlights from Tuesday’s Analyst Blog:

BofA to Repay TARP (in Part)

Bank of America Corporation (BAC) intends to pay back some of the bailout money it has received from the government in its participation of the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP).

The government is also pushing the bank to pay at least $500 million to conclude a tentative pact in which the government agreed to share losses on certain BofA assets.

The completion of the payments would enable BofA to reduce a part of the government's involvement in its affairs.

Some of the large financial firms that have already repaid government fund are Morgan Stanley (MS), Bank of New York Mellon Corporation (BK), Goldman Sachs (GS) and U.S. Bancorp (USB).

Want more from Zacks Equity Research? Subscribe to the free Profit from the Pros newsletter: http://at.zacks.com/?id=5515.

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Zacks Equity Research provides the best of quantitative and qualitative analysis to help investors know what stocks to buy and which to sell for the long-term.

Continuous coverage is provided for a universe of 1,150 publicly traded stocks. Our analysts are organized by industry which gives them keen insights to developments that affect company profits and stock performance. Recommendations and target prices are six-month time horizons.

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