Stocks, base metals and crude oil made further headway last week. Long-term US bond yields came down a bit following a successful 30-year bond auction and some pro-Treasurys comments from Japan’s finance minister. The dollar dipped while commodity-link currencies rallied. More important perhaps, optimism was widely seen as returning to the markets.

And the green shoots brigade gained a firmer hold on investor sentiment. It has become okay to say that the global economy is out of the woods and that the rally in US stocks could be the beginning of a new bull.

Is this optimism justifiable? This is the question we’ll attempt to answer in today’s Notes.

“The whole credit collapse and the recession must have been a hoax,” writes our favorite underground analyst David Rosenberg at Gluskin Sheff.

Rosie is talking about the latest Investors’ Intelligence survey. It shows bullish sentiment at 47.7% (versus 42.5% the week before) and bearish sentiment

The Reuters/Jeffries CRB Index - an index that was first constructed in 1958 and comprises 19 major commodities - has been rising non-stop for the past four weeks and for nine weeks out of the past 14. This surge represents a gain of 30.2% from its low on March 2. But one needs to put this in perspective: the Index fell by 57.7% from its high in early July 2008, and therefore still needs to rise by a further 81.5% to match the previous peak.

I posted an article a week ago entitled “Secular bull in commodities remains intact” and concluded as follows:

“… commodities still seem to be in a supercycle that was only temporarily interrupted by the global economic malaise. As inflation money finds its way into commodities, it is still not too late to purchase these, but only on price corrections that are

The Chinese Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for May remained in the expansionary zone of higher than 50%, although it moderated to 53.1% from 53.5% in April, according to Li & Fung Research Centre. Although eight of the 11 sub-indices were slightly lower than their respective levels in the previous month, it is noteworthy that the new export orders index returned to the expansionary territory for the first time since June 2008. “Strong domestic demand, together with an improving export situation, has helped resume the expansion of the manufacturing sector in China, “said the report.

China’s PMI seems to indicate that the country might have seen the worst of the GDP growth statistics. (The Hong Kong PMI is used as a proxy of the Chinese PMI prior to 2004.)

Source: Plexus Asset Management (based on data

BULL - June 1: Deutsche Bank US equity analyst Binky Chadha forecasts S&P 500 at 1060 by 2009 year-end, citing improving corporate profit margins.  He said aggregate profit margins for S&P 500 “remains well below the average of the last few years, implying considerable potential upside over the medium term.”

BULL - June 1: JP Morgan Chase analyst Thomas Lee forecasts 2009 year-end S&P 500 index at 1100.

BULL - June 1: Bank of America/Merrill Lynch analyst David Bianco forecasts 2009 year-end S&P 500 index at 1100.

BEAR - May 30: Morgan Stanley equity analyst Jason Todd says sell this S&P 500 rally. He says Morgan Stanley does not see large upside above 825-850.  He said,  “In the rush to buy a cyclical recovery, it seems earnings or valuation no longer matters. We would be comfortable with this view if the earnings trough was closer, but it is not.”

BEAR - MAY 28: Berkshire

While investors’ attention was focused on global government bond yields marching higher, the holiday-shortened week produced a surprisingly small number of video clips.

Some quality footage was nevertheless produced, featuring the likes of David Rosenberg, now in his new role as chief economist and strategist of Gluskin Sheff, Mohamed El-Erian, Barry Ritholtz, Puru Saxena and Mario Gabelli.

And then there is “out of the box” analyst Marc Faber arguing that the US economy will enter “hyperinflation” approaching the levels in Zimbabwe. “I am 100% sure that the US will go into hyperinflation,” Faber said in an interview with Bloomberg. “The problem with government debt growing so much is that when the time comes and the Fed should increase interest rates, they will be very reluctant to do so and so inflation will start to accelerate.”

The selection kicks off with a humorous take by Emmy