Global stock markets are still under correction. Major indices haven't succeeded to rally after they bottomed on March this year. Last week Dow Jones Industrial Average has turned into the bear market by drop more than 20% from recent October high. Market lab show still Head and Shoulders bearish pattern for S&P 500 and DJIA on weekly basis. We have closed 4 consecutive weeks in negative for broad US indices.Iran tension and weak USD lift crude oil to new all time high. Another commodity supported by current market conditions is gold by endless sub-prime mortgages financial crises.Worse earnings reports are dragging down shares which again triggers selling pressure on US dollar. Which makes vicious spiral.Outflow from US dollar and shares helping some markets and their currencies. Especially economies growing still at modest pace. Have a look to Czech currency Koruna. Despite 20% appreciation ...

T.S. Eliot might have been out by a few months – it looks as though June might turn out to be the cruelest month of the year rather than April.

Renewed fears of inflation and slower growth caused by record energy costs played havoc with global stock markets last week, resulting in the Dow Jones Industrial Average being on track to record its worst June since the Great Depression. As stocks suffered, gold bullion surged and government bond yields dropped due to safe-haven buying.

Sentiment soured as investors became more concerned that the credit crisis still had a long way to run and that the fallout was increasingly contaminating the real economy.

Credit

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The Electric Light Orchestra lyrics “… you took me ohh, higher and higher baby, it’s a living thing, it’s a terrible thing …” have been mulling through my head over the past week as central bankers’ inflation-fighting rhetoric moved to centre stage.

A succession of hawkish comments from US policymakers persuaded pundits that the US rate-cutting cycle was over, resulting in a stronger US dollar, plummeting government bonds, predominantly lower global stock markets (with Asia seeing the most red), and non-agricultural commodities coming off the boil.

Ben Bernanke, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, said on Monday that the danger of a “substantial downturn” in the US economy had abated during the past month but that inflation risks were growing.

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Global stock markets topped out on the back of the sub-prime/credit debacle in October 2007. Prices subsequently moved lower until reaching climatic bottoms in January/March this year, triggering rallies throughout the world until a few days ago. The big question investors are grappling with at this stage is whether the rise in prices has simply been a bear market rally, or whether we are back in a primary bull market.

I have previously said: “Whereas I am doubtful about the longevity of the rally, I am also not in the Armageddon school. Is the answer perhaps a ‘muddle-through’ market, characterized by below-average returns? That is my hunch, for what it’s worth.” (See post entitled “Poll of the Week: Stock Markets – Which Way

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Global stock markets have experienced a relatively strong recovery since the middle of March. Although markets in general are still well below previous highs, it makes for interesting reading to reflect on the extent of the correction and subsequent rally.

As illustrated by the table below, the MSCI World Index is still 9.5% down from its high of October 31, 2007 after its 18.1% drop to a low on March 17, 2008 and a subsequent 10.5% improvement.

The MSCI Emerging Market Index fared better by recovering by 15.8% since a 22.2% drop to a low on January 22, 2008, but is still 9.9% down from its previous high.

Within the emerging markets category, the Chinese Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index

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