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Pullback underway, but may be brief

Alex Stanczyk (March 3rd, 2009) Writes:

By: Gene Arensberg

HOUSTON — As expected gold paused just after attempting a second assault at the big round number target with three zeros, US$1,000 this past week.   We could all feel a pullback or correction coming.Apparently sensing that the market for gold had moved too far or too fast, the very large commercial futures traders had strongly positioned for a gold correction as readers of this report know. They finally got a correction going this past week.

Gold had advanced a total of $326, or 47%, since its October panic lows near $681 in not all that much time. Indeed, the largest of the largest futures traders were evidently willing to take the short side of gold futures contracts aggressively as gold was crossing the $900 line of the gold futures battlefield as we reported in early February. As the yellow metal neared the $1,000 mark mid-month,

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Alex Stanczyk, Arizona, Barclay's iShares COMEX Gold Trust;, Barclay's iShares Silver Trust;, Bill Murphy, BMO Capital Markets, Brien Lundin;, central bank fire hoses;, Chicago, China, Chris Powel;, Chris Powell, Coxe Advisors LLC;, david morgan, donald coxe, energy, financial media, Gene Arensberg, gld, Glendale;, Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee, Gold Bullion Securities Ltd;, Gold Markets, investment bank traders;, iShares Silver Trust, Jason Hommel;, Jay Taylor, Jefferson Direct;, Joe Martin;, JP Morgan Chase, London, London Bullion Market Association, Louisiana, metal, metal holdings;, metal rises;, metal warehouses;, Michael Berry;, mining, Oil, overheated energy markets;, Peter Grandich;, Phoenix, Russia, silver metal;, SLV Metal Holdings;, SPDR Gold Trust, Supply Chain, Ted Butler, Thom Calandra;, Toronto, U.S. Treasury Department, United Kingdom, United States, Us Federal Reserve, USD, world gold council, yellow metal

And Then There’s This…Monday, February 23rd, 2009

Contrarian Profits (February 23rd, 2009) Writes:

Both gold and silver had short, sharp rallies once Globex trading began in Sydney on Friday morning. Both were sold off immediately.

However, at 1:00 p.m. in Hong Kong [midnight in New York] a serious rally began which really accelerated to the up-side at 11:00 a.m. in London while North America slept. The rally ended at 9:00 a.m. in New York…shortly after floor trading began on the Comex. From there, both metals got sold off [for an hour] into the London p.m. fix [3:00 p.m. London - 10 a.m. New York]. Once the London gold fix was in, away they went again, with both metals being sold off hard once the gold price went vertical through $1,000…which occurred shortly before 1 p.m. in New York. Once that happened, profit taking dropped both metals back. Estimated volume on Friday was 152,368 contracts…with a switch effect of 9,898 lots.

Here’s the 2-year gold chart.

Invest in Gold, the Crisis Commodity

Contrarian Profits (February 19th, 2009) Writes:

Gold Bug Ted Peroulakis of Investors Daily Edge suggests that “you should own some gold in your portfolio as an insurance policy, just in case the economy gets worse.” He recommends this Gold EFT as a safe haven during the global financial crisis, because no matter what happens with the markets, gold will always shine.

This from Ted:

As you know, I’m a gold bug. I’m quite bullish on the yellow metal. I have been recommending gold since 2001 and I expect gold to run much higher. You should own some gold in your portfolio as an insurance policy, just in case the economy gets worse.

Gold is a safe haven in times of financial and geopolitical instability. Gold has often been nicknamed the “crisis commodity” since it tends to outperform other investments during periods of market distress and world tensions.

I mentioned in previous articles that a great way to

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And Then There’s This…Friday, January 30th, 2009

Contrarian Profits (January 30th, 2009) Writes:

As expected, the Thursday morning rally at the Sydney open got snuffed out in short order. Gold remained flat in Hong Kong until 4:00 p.m. in their afternoon …3:00 a.m. in New York. Then the boyz showed up, and down gold went until the London open, a short rally got turned over, and the bottom for the gold price came at the London a.m. fix. From there it rallied gently until the London p.m. fix…and then away it went to the upside.

Silver was the same, except it didn’t wait around for the London p.m. fix before it headed up. Its rally began promptly with the Comex open in New York. Both metals remained strong even in electronic trading after the Comex closed…and despite the strength of the US$.

Gold open interest dropped another sizeable chunk on Wednesday…down 8,387 contracts to 345,804. In silver, o.i. went the other way for the second

And Then There’s This…Thursday, January 22nd, 2009

Contrarian Profits (January 22nd, 2009) Writes:

Gold started off early morning Far East trading on Wednesday as it usually does lately…going into a slow decline. And, as usual, at 3:00 a.m…shortly before the London open…the price began to rise, this time sharply. But it was all for naught once again, as someone was there to sell gold hard the moment that the London a.m. fix was in. The decline lasted for the rest of the London session…through the Comex open…and only reversed at the close of London trading at 4:00 p.m….11:00 a.m. New York time. However, this attempted rally was not allowed to amount to much, but gold did close the Globex session about eight dollars above its lows.

click to enlarge

Silver was far more volatile. The price rise at the London open was impressive until it, too, ran into the same seller at …

And Then There’s This…Friday, January 16th, 2009

Contrarian Profits (January 16th, 2009) Writes:

Gold did nothing in the Far East during yesterday’s trading, but did develop a slightly positive bias as the London session advanced. The Comex open saw gold up about 1% immediately, only to have not-so-gentle hands hammer it (and any subsequent nascent rally) flat. The absolute bottom was during lunch hour in New York…and from there, a rally (short covering?) began.

This lasted well after the Comex close…and into electronic trading on the Globex, before developing the usual turn to the right. Estimated volume yesterday was a very large 162,902 contracts, with a switch effect of 19,368 contracts. And…except for greater price volatility…you could be forgiven if you thought the silver chart could be exchanged with the gold chart…as they were almost mirror images of each other.

click to enlarge

On Wednesday, gold open interest fell another 4,461 contracts to

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And Then There’s This…Tuesday, November 4th, 2008

Contrarian Profits (November 4th, 2008) Writes:

Both gold and silver did what you would expect when trading opening early Monday morning in the Far East. But, as per usual lately, someone showed up just after the Sydney close and put an end to the party.

Gold’s attempt to rise over $740 came to an end at noon in London (7:00 a.m. Eastern time) which, oddly enough, is the precise time of the silver fix. From that point, both metals were escorted lower…and every attempt at a rally during regular Comex hours in New York met with fresh selling…and the usual sellers showed up again in after-hours trading on the Globex. The silver price mirrored the gold price…and their respective graphs could have been interchanged with each other yesterday without noticing much of a difference. Everyone likes to denigrate silver as an ‘industrial metal’. If that’s the case, why (for the most part) do the prices of

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Just How Bad is the US Stock Market Really Doing?

Simit Patel (September 18th, 2008) Writes:

It is no secret that the US stock market has been in trouble of late; the S&P 500 has been plunging, as has the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

To properly understand what is going on, though, it is important to consider the Federal Reserve’s actions regarding expanding the money supply. The Fed’s bailouts often result in an expansion of the money supply, as do direct injections into the money markets.

The end result is that the nominal price of everything ends up getting boosted. So, to truly understand the size of the S&P and DJIA’s declines, we need to factor in that those values are still being further inflated via inflation of the money supply.

Austrian economists are familiar with using the price of gold as a proxy to hedge against inflation of the …

MARKET COMMENT July 9, 2008 Big Wednesday Wipeout!

David Fry (July 9th, 2008) Writes:


Big Wednesday Wipeout! Bonzai Pipeline, Oahu

It’s just a big picture but those are big waves! If you rode a wave successfully like that in markets yesterday you were probably pretty pumped-up to try again today. But, wipe-outs happen.

Okay, enough metaphors. This was a pretty ugly day. I day-traded most of the day and was marveling at the low volume and choppiness until the last hour when “BAM!” all hell broke loose.

This is what a bear market can do to you. If you were short yesterday you suffered like our surfer friend with that countertrend rally. But, you had to expect that with markets oversold! Today it’s back to reality, or what passes for it “today”. Tomorrow we go at one more time. Wax your boards!

Volume remains heavy and breadth is as negative today as positive …

Stock markets turmoil, rising commodities and week US dollar.

Vlada Kynsky (June 30th, 2008) Writes:
Global stock markets are still under correction. Major indices haven't succeeded to rally after they bottomed on March this year. Last week Dow Jones Industrial Average has turned into the bear market by drop more than 20% from recent October high. Market lab show still Head and Shoulders bearish pattern for S&P 500 and DJIA on weekly basis. We have closed 4 consecutive weeks in negative for broad US indices.Iran tension and weak USD lift crude oil to new all time high. Another commodity supported by current market conditions is gold by endless sub-prime mortgages financial crises.Worse earnings reports are dragging down shares which again triggers selling pressure on US dollar. Which makes vicious spiral.Outflow from US dollar and shares helping some markets and their currencies. Especially economies growing still at modest pace. Have a look to Czech currency Koruna. Despite 20% appreciation ...

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