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Prieur’s readings (September 16, 2009)

Prieur du Plessis (September 16th, 2009) Writes:

This post provides links to a number of interesting articles I have read over the past few days that you may also enjoy.

• Doug Kass (TheStreet.com): Bearish arguments are roaring, September 14, 2009. In summary, the market has discounted favorable expectations (certainly against forecasts four months ago!) and seems more “certain” of a self-sustaining recovery cycle outcome. Reflecting the gravity and weight of so many inhibiting factors, I see a much broader range of possible outcomes and less certainty than some of the newly printed bullish market participants. The credit expansion of the last several decades has reversed, it will take time to reverse the damage to net worth and confidence, the consumer remains in a fragile state, corporations will make do with more productive but fewer personnel (job growth could continue to disappoint), there are no apparent drivers to replace the role of

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Prieur’s readings (August 14, 2009)

Prieur du Plessis (August 14th, 2009) Writes:

This post provides links to a number of thought-provoking articles I have read over the past few days that you may also find of interest. Please also add the links to any other thought-provoking articles you would like to share to the comments section.

• Paul Marson (Financial Times): Cause for caution on US earnings, August 12, 2009. The US second-quarter earning season is now ending, apparently on a good note as nearly three quarters of US companies have beaten consensus expectations. But a closer look at these earnings shows there is cause to be more cautious about the health of corporate America than the headline numbers would suggest. The cloud of euphoria that followed recent results had more to do with extraordinarily low expectations, than to any meaningful and lasting improvement in prospects, which still require a rapid recovery in economic activity. This suggests

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Prieur’s readings (July 23, 2009)

Prieur du Plessis (July 23rd, 2009) Writes:

This post provides links to a number of thought-provoking articles I have read over the past few days that you may also find interesting.

• Richard Bernstein (Financial Times): America is for now still blowing bubbles, July 20, 2009. By preserving capacity to avoid taking pain today, the US is following the approach that led Japan into a lost decade.

• Kenneth Scott and John Taylor (The Wall Street Journal): Why toxic assets are so hard to clean up, July 21, 2009. Despite trillions of dollars of new government programs, one of the original causes of the financial crisis — the toxic assets on bank balance sheets — still persists and remains a serious impediment to economic recovery. Why are these toxic assets so difficult to deal with? We believe their sheer complexity is the core problem and that only increased transparency will

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Prieur’s readings (June 29, 2009)

Prieur du Plessis (June 29th, 2009) Writes:

This post provides links to a number of thought-provoking articles I have read over the past few days that you may also find of interest.

• Joseph Stiglitz (The Nation): A global recovery for a global recession, June 24, 2009. As developed countries struggle to ensure a quick recovery, they need to think of the effects of their actions on developing countries. It is time to begin the restructuring of our global economic and financial system in ways that ensure that the fruits of prosperity are more widely shared and that the system is more stable. This task will not be accomplished overnight. But it is a task that must be begun, now.

• Philip Stephens (Financial Times): Co-ordination falls away as the global crisis abates, June 26, 2009. There was a surprising degree of co-operation on the international response to

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Prieur’s readings

Prieur du Plessis (April 14th, 2009) Writes:

The following are some thought-provoking articles I have read over the past few days that readers may also find of interest:

• David Kotok (Cumberland Advisors): Does the stock market rally have legs? April 11, 2009.

• George Magnus (Times Online): Political courage is vital for a real recovery, April 13, 2009.

• John Hussman (Hussman Funds): Green shoots over thin ice, April 13, 2009.

• Financial Times: Britons turn to religion over debt worries, April 12, 2009. The growing demand for financial and legal advice from places of worship is prompting many to launch a new type of service in the downturn

• John Sylvia (Wachovia): Economics as strategic input to business decision-making, April 13, 2009. Often the biggest misses in bank strategy have little to do with the day-to-day management

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Video-o-rama: Five in a row for stock markets

Prieur du Plessis (April 10th, 2009) Writes:

The holiday-shortened week witnessed relatively few news and economic reports, but the major US stock indices nevertheless scored their first five-week stretch of gains since October 2007.

A mixed bag of video clips was produced. First up is Pimco’s Mohamed El-Erian, saying, “Fundamentally we are in a volatile journey to what we call the new normal, the new destination. The world is changing.” Also featuring prominently are a series of must-see interviews by Aaron Task (Yahoo Finance, Tech Ticker) with George Soros about a wide-ranging number of issues.

Spicing up the week’s video footage was a fairly lively debate between UBS’s George Magnus and the G7’s Len Komileva, with another interesting discussion coming from Nouriel Roubini and Goldman’s Jim O’Neill.

Also make sure to watch Argentinean economist Adrian Salbuchi’s video clips, putting the financial collapse in context by referring to historical examples from Argentina.

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