Article Source Or, is the model for explaining why macro data sometimes appear so counter to intuition best explained by willful deception (Iraq and WMDs), incompetence (the FEMA response to Katrina), or prosaic (resource constraints)? The casual reader might think I'm overstating the extreme hypotheses, but there is, after all, a whole website devoted to the proposition of conspiracy: Have you ever wondered why the CPI, GDP and employment numbers run counter to your personal and business experiences? The problem lies in biased and often-manipulated government reporting. Here's John Williams' exhibit 1 in the case against the government: Figure 1, drawn from John Williams' "Shadow Government Statistics" website. The other extreme view holds that incompetence is the problem. (This blogger does not use the word, but the adjective seems implicit in the discussion). Personally, I think that many of these shortcomings in the data series ...

Article Source: Consumers say they're gloomy, but why are they still spending? A surprising report from the Commerce Department today, which indicated that seasonally adjusted nominal sales for retail trade and food services were 1% higher in May compared with April. The new estimates of March and April sales (in red in the figure below) were also revised substantially up from the previous (blue) estimates that had been reported last month. Source: ALFRED Although a 1% monthly gain would translate into a 12% annual rate if maintained, the newly revised April numbers are still barely above the values last November in nominal terms. Calculated Risk notes that the year-on-year comparisons, when adjusted using an anticipated PCE deflator, remain negative even with the strong new estimates. Source: Calculated Risk The latest numbers ...

Aaron Katsman IsraelNewsletter.com I posted yesterday about how a strengthening US Dollar could potentially benefit Israeli stocks that trade in the US. I was asked by some readers how come I think that the USD is poised for a rally? The answer…FIFO. FIFO is an accounting term that stands for ‘first in first out.’ With the global economy on the skids, the US was the first country to start having problems and with a vigilant Fed at the wheel, I think the US will return to normal growth in the next 6 months. After all, no recession occurred. The US has had no negative GDP growth quarters, and actually had a surprisingly good 0.9% GDP for Q1. Europe on the other hand, is just starting to show signs of a slowdown. I have heard analysts predicting a potential contraction of over 2% in European growth. That certainly ...

Yesterday I posted about new ETF iShares MSCI Eastern Europe (IEER.L). Let’s have a look to key fundamental indicators of countries included in the fund. Russian index RTX, Polish WIG, Hungarian BUX and Czech PX.

Country/Region
DivYld
P/B
P/CF
FY0 P/E
12M
Trailing P/E
FY1 P/E

Russia
0.98
2.24
13.91
13.22
10.35
11.6

Poland
2.78
2.25
9.14
12.73
12.39
11.94

Hungary
2.6
2.37
6.4
10.23
9.83
9.36

Czech Republic
2.96
2.82
8.52
15.49
18.39
13.62

Central European countries provide high dividends. On average dividend yield in Emerging countries is 1.91. Also P/E ratios are better than average. …

With recent interest rate decisions I had closer look into 2 emerging markets in Central Europe. Hungary and Poland. Hungarian central bank again by 25bp (to 8,5%) to tighten monetary policy. Currently highest interest rates since January 2005. Bank acted mainly because of upward inflation. Its outlook has been raised from 3,6% to 4,2%.Economic picture doesn't look very well. Retail sales down by -4% or construction down by -11%. Industrial output remains positive but with sharp decline to 4%. Numbers are year on year basis. GDP growth stays already one year below 1%. And with current high interest rates it's hard to see soon any revival.Polish central bank left rates unchanged on 5,75%. The decision mainly taken by better than expected inflation reading (4%). Unemployment shows very positive trend and latest number is 7,7%. Retail sales ...

Soaring oil prices were mostly to blame for the past week’s stock market sell-off, but renewed concerns about US economic growth, corporate earnings and mounting angst about inflation pressures also featured prominently in determining the market’s fate.

David Fuller (Fullermoney) commented as follows: “As the world’s most important commodity by far, this surge in the oil price is bearish for the majority of stock markets. Consequently I would assume that rallies seen since March have either been capped or are unlikely to make much upward progress until investors see evidence that crude oil has commenced a medium-term correction.”

The FOMC released the minutes from its April 30 meeting on Wednesday. Members acknowledged uncertainty about what constituted

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This rather sparse chart is of the benchmark BET index from Romania. It may not be obvious on first glance but the market is down 34% from its closing high last July 24. Romania is part of the EU but not the EMU. Today their central bank raised rates by 25 beeps, 50 was expected, to 9.75%. Inflation is pretty hot (in the eights), GDP growth is good, estimated in the fives this year but it has been on a down trend for the last couple of years and it is a deficit country. I'm not sure how keen they are about trying to join the EMU but the mix of stats says that is probably a ways off but interestingly the currency, the leu, is up about 4% against the greenback this year but the ride to 4% has been wild. I think ...

One indicator, PEG, of fundamental analysis measures P/E relative to growth (EPS growth). It is especially helpful to compare stocks, indexes. Low P/E not necessary means under valuated price. It's always needed to compare with potential growth. PEG indicator uses EPS growth as a denominator.I made following analysis for world stock markets. Assets are regional ETF underlying international stocks. It's not problem to find P/E ratio for ETF in question but it's always difficult to find EPS respectively EPS growth data. Therefore I used expected GDP growth (2008) for world economies (based on IMF prediction). Which means as a PEG denominator is GDP growth instead of EPS growth. ...

This is the latest prediction for GDP growth from International Monetary Fund IMF. You can see world economic outlook for 2008 and 2009. Numbers are released on April. Middle East and Africa seems to be averse to global slowdown. At least in view of IMF.http://stockweb.blogspot.com/atom.xml