Stephen Fidler at the Wall Street Journal has an interesting piece running today about the annual winter pipeline politics (though the sensible agreement yesterday in Yalta may diminish a lot of fears).  There are some interesting facts and numbers in the piece - for example the estimate that Gazprom's contract prices are sitting around $10 per million BTU, while LNG can be had on the spot market for $4 per million BTU.  In a refreshing change of pace, we see Fidler point more of the blame at the national champions E.ON and ENI if by chance Eastern European households go cold this winter.  From a business perspective, a supply cut-off would really hurt Gazprom and benefit the state-corporate avarice of Western Europe (who have the ability to import from alternative sources).Either way, things are looking bad for everybody ...

In spite of recent measures taken to avoid more EU gas disruptions this winter, and a new Russia-EU partnership set to be discussed in detail at this week's Stockholm summit, Slovakia's Prime Minister can't see Kiev being able to pay its gas bills.  A $300 million EBRD loan to Naftogaz, intended to help it manage the import and storage of gas from Russia, has just been delayed after the Ukrainian company failed to implement key reforms.  Gazprom chief, Alexander Medvedev, says the company's 2009 profits are forecasted at around $42.5 billion - and that's in spite of end-of-year export cuts of 10%.  He has also challenged reports that supply will outstrip demand until 2015, forecasting the end of the surplus for either 2011 or 2012, depending on your source.  Speaking as chair of a petrochemicals conference ...

Russia's Energy Minister and the EU Energy Commissioner have signed a memorandum establishing an early warning mechanism to anticipate potential gas cuts and allow time to find solutions to problems before deliveries are physically affected.  But the memorandum may be useless, suggests one analyst, as the decision to cut supplies lies with Gazprom, which has already criticized the European Union for not doing enough to head off another gas crisis this winter.  Russia may participate in the reconstruction of Ukraine's pipeline network, but Yulia Tymoshenko insists that the system will not be privatized.  Iran is not pleased with 'dishonest' Russia, after the latter said that 'technical reasons' were behind its announcement that the Bushehr nuclear plant would not be ready by the end of the year as planned.  The IAEA is continuing to press ...

Uppsala University in Sweden says the IEA's annual World Energy Outlook 'drastically underplayed the scale of future oil shortages'.  Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has won Slovenia's approval for the South Stream pipeline, 'undermining European Union efforts to reduce dependency on Russian gas supplies'.  A deal was signed late on Saturday, marking the fifth and final signatory of 'all the European partners needed for this project to be completed'.  Gazprom could receive 'exclusive rights' as a supplier of liquefied natural gas to Singapore after the expiry of a current contract with British Gas.  RusAl is planning to sell a 10% stake to help repay its $14 billion debt, and may offer special ventures and access deals in a reported bid to help China take the lion's share.  Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad says his country's nuclear rights are 'not ...

The International Energy Agency increased its forecast for 2010 global oil demand as the pace of economic recovery in Asia and the Middle East quickens, but has apparently cautioned that rising oil prices could jeopardize the green shoots of recovery. President Medvedev called for an end to Russia's 'humiliating' dependence on commodities in yesterday's state of the nation speech, whilst it is rebounding oil prices that are palliating Russia's current economic problems. Gazprom plans to increase its investment program by 5% next year, to $27.94 billion. The heads of the Russian state giant and Naftogaz are to meet to discuss the Ukrainian company's parlous financial status and issues related to the November supply of gas. Russia will apparently produce next-generation nuclear reactors and new types of nuclear fuel by 2014. Gazprom has confirmed plans ...

Ever come across something so brilliant you wish you had thought of it yourself? Well that's what Seth Hettena has just put together, via sourcing from Vedomosti: an aggregation of the preferred timepieces worn by high-level Russian officialdom as a possible proxy for corruption. There are several questions raised from this little survey, not the least of which is: to those of you contending that Igor Sechin is the real master string-puller, I ask you, have you considered Moscow's Deputy Mayor Vladimir Resin? More importantly, could any of these men hold it together under the mind-bending microscope of Vesper Lynd?

A partial list of who prefers which wristwatch:

Vladimir Putin: Blancpain, Leman Aqualung Grande Date, $10,500

Dmitry Medvedev: Breguet, Classique Moon

...

This post is a guest contribution by Dr Mark Mobius, executive chairman of Templeton Asset Management.

During 2008, Russia was among the weakest stock market performers in the emerging market universe, losing more than 70% in US$ terms. But this year, the market has staged an impressive rally surging nearly 100% in the year-to-October period. The Russian market is among the cheapest in the emerging market universe and is trading at a discount of around 50% to its counterparts.

Today, Russia and many other emerging markets are now being driven by an excess in money supply in the international markets which means that these markets are experiencing an inflow of money for investments. Consequently, as Russia was more depressed than other markets, the upside is greater. At Templeton, we continue to find attractive opportunities in most sectors despite the recent rally as valuations remain undervalued. The Templeton Emerging

...

This in from the Wall Street Journal on the somewhat disturbing, political dimensions of Russia's Nord Stream pipeline.  Approved just last week by Finland and Sweden after ecological concerns were overcome, the project is now ready to get off the ground, or rather under the ground.  For the pipeline will traverse the Baltic Sea floor to Germany, rather than crossing overground through former Eastern bloc countries; a divisive move, Alexandro Peterson suggests:[ . . . ] The Nord Stream project is part of an exclusionary agreement between Moscow and Berlin--nicknamed in circumvented Warsaw the "Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact," after the 1939 Soviet-Nazi deal to carve up Poland. It would have been much cheaper to build an overland pipeline ...

The US is apparently willing to give Iran more time to decide whether it will accept the UN's recent proposal on uranium enrichment abroad.  Bad news for Gazprom - the company's profits fell by 48% in the first six months of the year and its debt grew by 31% in the same period.  The company expects to meet its target of exporting 142-143 billion cubic meters of gas in 2009 as demand continues to recover.  The Russian monopoly could fine European consumers for falling short of contracted purchase volumes by 8-9 billion cubic meters of gas and Ukraine may be among them.  Lukoil has received a $300 million loan from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.   Mikhael Gorbachev urges that the new 'wall' of climate change be addressed.  China will offer $10 billion ...

TODAY: Youtube policeman faces slander investigation; Omsk students threatened with expulsion; Committee to Protect Journalists urge global attention to threats against media in Russia. Merkel thanks Gorbachev; Medvedev approves new military bill; advocates abolition of death penalty. Delay for Gazprom eyesore?; Nobel Prize winning physicist dies; Kalashnikov goes on; gangsters' idea of cemetery chic. Corruption-highlighting policeman Alexei Dymovsky is now facing three investigations after posting a video address to Putin lamenting the state of the police, including an Investigative Committee examination of whether the policeman's accusations hold any truth; another investigation is against Dymovsky himself, for slander.  Interior Minister Rashid Nurgaliyev has already ordered an investigation into the Novorossiisk police force and suspended Dymovsky ...