by Edward Hugh: Barcelonabr /br /br /blockquote"For what it’s worth, a key conclusion from the IMF’s new World Economic Outlook is that recessions caused by financial crisis typically end with export booms, with the trade balance improving,on average, by more than 3 percent of GDP. I find this a disturbing result: we’re now suffering from a global financial crisis, which means that the usual driver of recovery will only be available if we can find another planet to export to."br /a href="http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/04/27/japans-recovery-again/"Paul Krugman /abr /br //blockquoteblockquoteWith results still coming in, projections show the United Progressive Alliance is likely to win about 250 seats, making it a shoo-in to form the next government and provide continuity, a stable administration and progress on key economic and corporate reforms.br /a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124247401653426893.html"Wall Street Journal/a, May 16 2009/blockquotebr /blockquotePrime Minister Manmohan Singh’s electoral victory, the biggest any Indian politician has scored in two decades, may ...

by Edward Hugh: Barcelonabr /br /The global manufacturing recession continued in April, with rates of contraction for output, new orders and employment all showing what are effectively sharp contractions by historical standards. The rates of contraction however moderated almost universally, and this is now the fourth month where this moderation has been evident. Thus, while the contraction is far from over, it is reasonable to say the it has stabilised, and the big issue is at what rate it will hold in the months to come. The initial shock has now been absorbed, but that is a far cry from saying that we already have the worst behind us. The general deterioration in employment conditions raises the concern that as the impact of the government stimulus "shocks" in their turn wane, and as national banking systems come under the impact of the additional loan defaults the growing unemployment and falling ...

by Edward Hugh: Barcelona br /br /Data from the JPMorgan March Global PMI provide solid evidence that the speed of contraction in global manufacturing is lessening at the present time. Indexes tracking trends in output and new orders generally continued to rise across the globe, and are in general now up significantly from the series lows registered at the end of 2008. However, both the output and the new orders indexes remained at very low levels, all still signalling continuing contraction and well below those consistent with anything resembling a recovery in either component.br /br /The JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI – which provides a single figure snapshot of operating conditions across the planet – posted 37.2 in March. Although substantially below the no-change mark of 50.0, the PMI was up for the third month in row and at its highest level since last October. The vast majority of the national ...

by Edward Hugh: BarcelonaIndian inflation fell back again in the last week of October, as energy and commodity prices continued to fall, and the impact of the global financial turmoil and credit crunch ricocheted its way across one country after another. The IMF last week forecast annual growth for India of 6.3% in 2008 while India's manufacturing expansion, which continued to weaken, still held out against the global trend, according to the latest JPMorgan global manufacturing PMI.So, as we enter November, and a number of Indian indicators start to improve, it is certainly worth asking ourselves, has India turned the corner? Will India lead the emerging markets charge during the next global expansion?I am not, I am sure, alone in feeling that this is a distinct possibility, and, indeed, a similar view was expressed only last week by Sharmila Whelan, senior economist at CLSA ...

Indian inflation fell back again in the last week of October, as energy and commodity prices continued to fall, and the impact of the global financial turmoil and credit crunch ricocheted its way across one country after another. The IMF last week forecast annual growth for India of 6.3% in 2008 while India’s manufacturing expansion, which continued to weaken, still held out against the global trend, according to the latest JPMorgan global manufacturing PMI.

So, as we enter November, and a number of Indian indicators start to improve, it is certainly worth asking ourselves, has India turned the corner? Will India lead the emerging markets charge during the next global expansion?

I am not, I am sure, alone in feeling that this is a distinct possibility, and, indeed, a similar view was expressed only last week by Sharmila Whelan, senior economist at CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets.

“We do expect the Indian business cycle to

...

Indian inflation slowed back again in the last week of October, as the impact of the global financial turmoil and credit crunch continued to ricochet from one country after another. The IMF forecast annual growth for India of 6.3% in 2008 while India manufacturing expansion, while continuing to weaken, holds out against the trend. As we enter November, and a number of indicators start to improve it is certainly worth asking ourselves, has India turned the corner? Will India lead the emerging markets charge during the next global expansion?I am not, I am sure, alone in feeling this, and a similar view was expressed during the last week by Sharmila Whelan, senior economist at CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets.``We do expect the Indian business cycle to be the first to bottom in Asia. And, it should, in theory, be first to emerge,'' Sharmila Whelan, senior economist at CLSA, ...