The post below is republished courtesy of Trader Mark, writer of the Fund My Mutual Fund blog (hat tip: Damien Hoffman of Wall St Cheat Sheet).

Societe Generale’s Albert Edwards is generally considered an uber bear, although there were times in the past year he has tactically increased exposure to equities to take advantage of oversold conditions. Now is not one of those times. In fact, Edwards chimes in with many similar thoughts we’ve posted on the fundamentals … but sticks his neck out calling for new lows in 2010.

While the belief from this blog writer is this will all end badly, knowing when and how will be the ultimate question. Without the massive intervention by central banks and governments we’d have a different landscape; and without knowing to what lengths these people will continue to go to, it’s much more difficult to predict the intermediate

This post provides links to a number of interesting articles I have read over the past few days that you may also enjoy.

• Daniel Gross (Newsweek): The greatest trade ever, November 10, 2009. How hedge fund manager John Paulson bet against the real estate bubble and made $15 billion in a single year.

• abc News: SocGen’s top analyst sees market lows next year, November 9, 2009. Albert Edwards, a top analyst with French bank Societe Generale, expects global markets to hit a new low in 2010, adding that he would not be surprised if the global economy enters another recession next year. Edwards, one of the leading equities bears and a long-term critic of the policies of Western central banks, is skeptical of popular opinion that extreme policy response will safeguard the West against a repeat of Japan’s lost decade of the 1990’s.

This post provides links to a number of interesting articles I have read over the past few days that you may also enjoy.

• Business Intelligence: Marc Faber has short term concerns about commodities, says gold may drop to US$800, November 6, 2009. Marc Faber the Swiss fund manager and Gloom Boom & Doom editor said he has some short-term concerns about commodity prices including gold. He is also reluctant to invest in bonds.

• Aline van Duyn (Financial Times): Why dollar carry trade faces hidden dangers, November 7, 2009. Most investors agree that it is out there. What is less clear is how big it is, or how worried investors should be about it. The “it” in question is the dollar carry trade. This is an investment strategy that has recently been extremely profitable and as a result has become increasingly popular.

Sony Corp. (NYSE ADR: SNE) is facing the first consecutive annual loss of its 63-year history.

The Tokyo-based company lost $1.1 billion (98.9 billion yen) last year, and it expects to lose another $1.4 billion (120 billion yen) in its fiscal year ending March 31.  That would be Sony’s first back-to-back annual loss since the company went public in 1958.

And despite renewed optimism within its ranks, Sony still faces a plethora of challenges, including a questionable direction, cost-conscious consumers and a strengthening yen.

The onetime bellwether of the electronics industry has seen its market share crumble in almost every category: Nintendo Co. Ltd.’s (OTC ADR: NTDOY) Wii game console has supplanted Sony’s PlayStation brand, Sony has given up its lead in portable media players to Apple Inc.’s (Nasdaq: AAPL) iPod, and Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. is now the world’s largest seller of televisions.

Hoping to turn the

It is a gray morning, here in London. We sit in the building with the golden balls, look out the window, and wonder…

…how does it all work?

We’re doing some serious thinking this week. What is it that actually causes a depression? A stock market collapse? Or too much debt? How come government can appear to cure the problem sometimes – 2001-2007 – but not other times? How come the Japanese were not able to increase consumer prices? Even now… Japan’s inflation rate is negative. And how come, despite the most massive effort at monetary inflation ever undertaken, the US bond market still forecasts an inflation rate of less than 2%?

An interview with Richard Koo, author of ‘The Balance Sheet Recession,’ and a new book by Ken Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart are helping us understand what it going on. More to come…

In the meantime, the Dow went down 42 points

The conventional wisdom is that ETFs and other index-tracking vehicles are designed for beta (market exposure) and that active managers pursue alpha (value added through skill). But what does this actually tell us?

Do our well-used Greek letters help us make sense of the investment landscape, or do they actually hamper us in managing money? As James Montier, formerly of Societe Generale’s asset allocation team, now with Boston-based fund manager GMO, pointed out in an article published in 2007, as soon as you use the terms “alpha” and “beta,” you are invoking the spirit of the capital asset pricing model.

And, unfortunately, CAPM doesn’t actually work in practice.

Why not? Apart from some questionable assumptions about frictionless trading and investors having identical goals, the key problem with CAPM is that it assumes that stock returns are normally distributed. In other words, the theory requires that stock prices follow a random walk,

Have you or your friends ever attended an options seminar, learned how “simple” it is to make a high income from options trading but yet when you did it for real, you failed to make any money consistently?

Indeed, from my observation in this industry over the past decade, I have noticed that the chances of success for beginner options traders are extremely slim. In options trading, as in everything else in life, only a very small percentage of people make money consistently from options trading. This is true even amongst beginners who attended the same options courses. Yes, even with participants of the same options course, some will actually make some really good profit from options trading while most will not. What went wrong?

I explored the reasons for failure at options trading and narrowed it down to two main reasons; 1. Lack of a proven and systematic approach which novices …

European shares touched a 10-month high on Friday on optimism for a global economic recovery and with Nokia and results from U.S. bellwethers boosting the technology sector.

The FTSEurofirst 300 <.FTEU3> index of top European shares rose 1 percent to 978.34 points. Over the week, the index climbed 1.2 percent, its sixth weekly gain in the last seven weeks.

The European benchmark index is up more than 51 percent from its lifetime low of March 9, as investors have become more confident on the prospects of economic recovery.

“Things look good for the time being, but the higher we go the more we could be setting ourselves up for a disappointment,” said Andy Lynch, a fund manager at Schroders.

“The world economy is doing well, French and German GDP are positive, but that’s not surprising given the amount of stimulus being pumped into the market. I have a concern about what happens when the sugar

U.S. stocks recovered from early losses to end the day slightly higher, helped by a rebound in energy, financial and technology shares.  Volume was extremely light as investors, lacking in enthusiasm, refrained from taking big positions. 

The Dow Jones industrial average, which at one point had given up as much as 84 points, rose 37.11 points, or 0.4%, to close at 9,580.63, its eighth consecutive advance.  The broad Standard & Poor's 500-stock index rose 2.86 points, or 0.28%, to 1,030.98.  The tech-heavy NASDAQ composite index edged up 3.30 points, or 0.16%, to 2,027.73, helped by a late-session rally in technology shares.  Treasuries fell, pushing the yield on 10-year notes up 0.3 point to 3.46%.  On the New York Stock Exchange 1.16 billion shares exchanged hands and advancing shares were ahead of those that declined eight to seven.

This morning’s stock futures suggest moderate gains on the opening.  Dow Jones

This post provides links to a number of interesting articles I have read over the past few days that you may also enjoy. Please also add the links to any other thought-provoking articles you would like to share to the comments section.

• Nouriel Roubini (Forbes): Are there bright spots amid the global recession?, August 6, 2009. A snapshot of the better economies.

• Gillian Tett (Financial Times): The liquidity pipes remain clogged, August 6, 2009. Banks seem unwilling to use spare liquidity to engage in activity that regulators or shareholders might deem risky.

• Joseph Stiglitz (Project Syndicate): Keep shovelling that stimulus, August 7, 2009. What is needed now is another dose of fiscal stimulus. If that doesn’t happen, we can look forward to an even longer period in which the economy operates below capacity, with high unemployment.

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