London Calling: FTSE-100 Racks Up its Best Quarter in History

by Martin Denholm, Senior Editor Wednesday, October 1, 2009

As September concluded, so too did the third quarter of 2009.

And what a quarter it was for London’s FTSE-100 (^FTSE) stock market. In fact, it was the Index’s best three-month period in its 25-year history.

As global stock markets scoffed at the traditional “sell in May and go away” adage and sizzled throughout the summer, the “Footsie” notched up a 21% gain.

The positive vibes weren’t just restricted to Britain either. Stocks across Europe enjoyed a strong summer, with the FTSEurofirst 300 Index of top European shares posting its best quarter in 10 years, with a gain of 16%.

The question is: How long can the markets – both in the U.S. and overseas – walk the tightrope between bull and bear? As

With two sets of U.S. weekly oil statistics due out Tuesday and Wednesday expected to confirm fears of high inventories due to low demand, the price of oil dipped to the bottom of its 12-week range. A Reuter’s poll showing a 500,000 barrel inventory increase in the week to September 25 compounded middle distillate forecasts showing a 1.1 million barrel rise.

CEO of Saudi Aramco, Saudi Arabia’s state-run oil company, Khalid Al-Falih indicated Monday that demand from emerging markets and an uptick in China would not offset the loss in demand for oil for some time. Al-Falih also suggested that global consumption would not flag irrevocably and that higher oil prices were needed to fund concurrent development projects.

With the FTSEurofirst 300 broadly falling, U.S. and Brent crude futures were below $65 and $64 respectively by midmorning, Sept. 29. A rebound to $66.59 and $65.71 respectively followed at noon, due

World stocks hit a 12-day low on Monday, depressed by recent weak U.S. economic data and failing to find support from the G20 summit, while the yen attracted fresh flows to hit an eight-month high against the dollar.

Weaker-than-expected U.S. housing sales and durable goods orders on Friday drove U.S. stocks lower, and world and European stocks followed that trend on Monday.

Leaders of the Group of 20 rich and developing nations pledged on Friday to bring the global economy back into balance but their statement contained few surprises and investors are already looking ahead to U.S. employment data at the end of this week.

Global equities and other higher risk assets have risen sharply in the last six months on growing optimism about the economic outlook, but markets are starting to run out of impetus, analysts say.

“Investors are a little bit reluctant to add to their risk positions,” said Koen De Leus,

World stocks retreated further from last week’s 11-month high on Monday as lower energy and commodity prices and caution ahead of a Federal Reserve meeting and G20 summit prompted investors to trim risky trades.

Leaders of the Group of 20 meet on Thursday and Friday in Pittsburgh and U.S. President Barack Obama said on Sunday he would push world leaders for a reshaping of the global economy in response to the crisis.

World stocks, measured by MSCI have risen over 26 percent this year, recouping more than half of last year’s losses, underpinned by repeated pledges by G20 policymakers to keep emergency support for the economy in place.

“The market might look slightly overbought near term, but the economy is definitely improving, corporate profits are definitely improving, interest rates are staying low, valuations aren’t expensive,” said Nick Nelson, European equity strategist at UBS. MSCI world equity index <.MIWD00000PUS> fell 0.7 percent, while the

The dollar rose broadly on Monday, hitting a near two-week high against the yen, as traders trimmed short positions in the U.S. currency following broad losses so far this month.

Against the yen, the dollar rose more than a full percent, after speculative flows pushed it higher in quiet trade in Asia, where markets in Japan, Singapore and other centres were closed for holidays.

In the absence of economic events or data, traders took profits on currencies which have rallied against the dollar, including the euro, up more than 2 percent so far this month.

Analysts said some investors were becoming concerned that short dollar positions were overstretched, suggesting that a near-term correction may be in store.

“There’s already a lot of long euro/dollar positions in the market so it’s difficult to push the pair higher,” said Lutz Karpowitz, currency strategist at Commerzbank in Frankfurt.

Data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed that currency

GLOBAL MARKETS-, dollar gains

(Refiles to fix typo in headline)

* U.S. stocks slump as fear of more bank failures grows

* Dollar rises versus yen after strong U.S. factory data

* Oil slips below $69 a barrel on equities, strong dollar

U.S. stocks fell sharply on Tuesday as growing concerns about the U.S. banking system and over whether a recent rally in equity markets is warranted drove investors to the relative safety of bonds and the dollar.

Oil prices fell as the economic concerns outweighed surprisingly bullish U.S. data: the manufacturing sector grew in August for the first time in 19 months, while pending home sales hits a two-year high in July.

Government bond prices on both sides of the Atlantic rose as falling stocks enhanced the allure of lower-risk safe-haven debt despite the fresh evidence supporting the view of a global economic recovery.

There are “new concerns about the health of the banking system, the number

European shares touched a 10-month high on Friday on optimism for a global economic recovery and with Nokia and results from U.S. bellwethers boosting the technology sector.

The FTSEurofirst 300 <.FTEU3> index of top European shares rose 1 percent to 978.34 points. Over the week, the index climbed 1.2 percent, its sixth weekly gain in the last seven weeks.

The European benchmark index is up more than 51 percent from its lifetime low of March 9, as investors have become more confident on the prospects of economic recovery.

“Things look good for the time being, but the higher we go the more we could be setting ourselves up for a disappointment,” said Andy Lynch, a fund manager at Schroders.

“The world economy is doing well, French and German GDP are positive, but that’s not surprising given the amount of stimulus being pumped into the market. I have a concern about what happens when the sugar

European shares slipped back from a 10-month closing high on Wednesday, as investors took profits, even as German and U.S. economic data continued to point to recovery.

The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 <.FTEU3> index of top shares fell 0.5 percent to close at 973.92 points, breaking a four-day winning streak, and having hit its highest close since early October on Tuesday.

The European benchmark index is still up 50.9 percent from its lifetime low of March 9, as investors have become more confident on the prospects of recovery.

“The market has come a long way, and the economics are still supportive,” said Georgina Taylor, equity strategist, Legal & General Investment Management.

“We’re just seeing a little profit taking. Nothing has been derailed. Housing data is improving. The only area of concern is consumer spending.”

Energy companies were the biggest drag on the index, with crude prices down more than 1 percent to just above $71 a barrel,

World stocks slid on Wednesday after a mixed report on U.S. durable goods orders reignited doubts about economic recovery while oil prices fell on news of rising U.S. crude stockpiles.

The U.S. dollar gained, retracing the week’s losses, as the durables goods report for July eroded risk appetite and prompted investors to seek shelter in the safe-haven greenback.

Orders for long-lasting manufactured goods registered the biggest advance since July 2007, but excluding transportation goods, orders for durables were slightly below expectations.

Slippage among global stocks that climbed to 10-month highs this week boosted money flows into less risky assets, such as European government bonds, which also gained from some modest month-end buying, traders said.

Economic data in Europe showed further signs of recovery, as did a report showing U.S. new home sales jumped in July to their fastest pace in 10 months.

But a key measure of U.S. business demand — nondefense capital goods, excluding

European and Asian stocks extended last week’s rally on Monday and crude oil marched higher after U.S. economic news and stronger-than-expected data from the euro zone spurred expectations for economic recovery.

But an early rally in U.S. stocks faded about midday in New York after Treasuries rose as investors swooped in to take advantage of sharp losses on Friday.

Oil rose to a 10-month high near $75 a barrel and other commodities also surged as optimism that major economies were pulling out of recession drove hopes of rebounding demand. .

Global stocks as measured by MSCI’s all-country world index <.MIWD00000PUS> rose 1.2 percent and was on track for a fifth straight session of gains.

The yen fell while the U.S. dollar slid against commodity currencies, such as the Australian and New Zealand dollars, as investors became more comfortable with riskier trades given the upbeat assessment of the world economy.

“Economic data is in favor of a