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Back to the Stimulus Debate: W, Timing, the States, and Baselines
Menzie Chinn (July 2nd, 2009) Writes:
A "W" Recession?
Martin Feldstein has recently raised the possibility that we might experience a relapse into recession in 2010 (a perfect symmetrical W), with the next dip in 2010. In my view, this means (1) we should have opted for a bigger and better composed stimulus package, and (2) the timing of expenditures in the stimulus package might not be as problematic as many commentators have indicated.
"I think we"re going to see a temporary substantial improvement," Feldstein, the former head of the National Bureau of Economic Research and a Reagan administration adviser, said today in an interview on Bloomberg Radio. "I emphasize the words temporary and substantial."
Feldstein -- a member of the private panel that dates the start of recessions and recoveries -- suggested the economy will contract into next year, and that the pattern of economic turnaround will be more of a seesaw than what he
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