For Immediate Release

Chicago, IL – September 30, 2009 – Zacks.com releases the latest Zacks Industry Rank. Stocks featured in this week’s analysis include Agrium (AGU), CF Industries (CF), Intrepid Potash (IPI), Mosaic (MOS), Potash of Saskatchewan (POT) and Market Vectors Agribusiness (MOO).

Zacks Industry Rank Analysis is written by Charles Rotblut, CFA, Senior Market Analyst for Zacks.com.

This week: Fertilizer's Farming Problem

Hostile takeover attempts have kept fertilizer companies in the news. The acquisition talk has helped to overshadow a negative trend that should have investors concerned - ongoing cuts to full-year profit forecasts.

During the past 90 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimates have been revised downwards on several fertilizer companies, including Agrium (AGU), Intrepid Potash (IPI), Mosaic (MOS) and Potash of Saskatchewan (POT).

The most recent cuts were related to a warning from POT. The company predicted

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Hostile takeover attempts have kept fertilizer companies in the news. The acquisition talk has helped to overshadow a negative trend that should have investors concerned - ongoing cuts to full-year profit forecasts.

During the past 90 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimates have been revised downwards on several fertilizer companies, including Agrium (AGU), Intrepid Potash (IPI), Mosaic (MOS) and Potash of Saskatchewan (POT).

The most recent cuts were related to a warning from POT. The company predicted that its full-year profits would be in the range of $3.25 to $3.75 per share, instead of the prior guidance of $4 to $5 per share. The company blamed "continued slow demand and limited restocking by fertilizer distributors" as the reasons for the revised forecast.

All Is Not Well on the Farm

The big reason why profit projections for fertilizer companies have been falling is not weaker demand for fertilizer,

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People of good intentions and progressive predilection are scratching their heads wondering just how President Barack Obama managed to turn himself into George W. Bush Lite with sugar-on-top just twelve weeks after that fateful walk down the US Capitol’s east stairway to the waiting helicopter. I’m hardly the first observer to note that Mr. Obama’s actions in the face of an epochal finance fiasco and economic collapse are a mere extension of the pre-January-20 policies, carried out by much the same cast of characters.

The assumption up until now was something about the reassuring value of continuity — if we could just prop up an ailing set of banks for a little while, the US public could resume a revolving credit way-of-life within an economy dedicated to building more suburban houses and selling all the needed accessories from supersized “family” cars to cappuccino machines. This would keep everyone employed at the

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Alex’s Notes: Nothing new under the sun said wise King Solomon.

This is a simple repeat of history. Once Rome tried to fix prices in the market. This caused nothing more than shortages, and the emergence of black markets.

People require real honest money and protection of private property, which includes a merchants right to set prices above his costs and make a profit.

 

 

President Hugo Chavez is tightening state control over Venezuela’s food supply, setting quotas for food staples which are to be sold at government-imposed prices.

 

 

By Jeremy McDermott, Latin America Correspondent Last Updated: 11:11PM GMT 06 Mar 2009

 

Hugo Chavez is seeking to ensure that his core support, the poor, can still fill their shopping

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As governments around the world fight rising unemployment, falling exports and bank credit crunch, and several central banks are facing liquidity traps, many are turning to restrictions that privilege national producers. These populist measures attempt to minimize growth impact, social unrest and pain from the credit crunch that poses a risk to several ruling governments, especially those facing elections soon. Furthermore, some officials hope that such restrictions will reduce the leakage of the scarce funds used in bank bailouts and fiscal stimulus to other countries.

But as history shows, the impacts of trade protectionism on exports and job creation if any are small in the short-term and instead may lead to global retaliation, and in the long-term result in inefficient allocation of labor and capital and trade distortions, affecting potential

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Catastrophic Fall in 2009 Global Food Production Commodities / Food Crisis Feb 09, 2009 - 07:11 AM By: Eric_deCarbonnel

After reading about the droughts in two major agricultural countries, China and Argentina, I decided to research the extent other food producing nations were also experiencing droughts. This project ended up taking a lot longer than I thought. 2009 looks to be a humanitarian disaster around much of the world

To understand the depth of the food Catastrophe that faces the world this year, consider the graphic below depicting countries by USD value of their agricultural output, as of 2006.

Now, consider the same graphic with the countries experiencing droughts highlighted.

China

The drought in Northern China, the worst in 50 years, is worsening, and summer harvest is now threatened. The area of affected crops has expanded to 161 million mu (was 141 million last week),

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Things are still going poorly in Iceland. According to Bloomberg the ICEX 15 Index reopened on Tuesday after a three day trading halt. The result was a one day 77% drop. Of course YTD the ICEX was down a little over 50% coming into the Tuesday. I've read conflicting reports about whether there are or are not food shortages, this from Dealbreaker yesterday says the shortages are for real. The krona is trading at about 109 to the dollar. When Joellyn and I went there two years ago the rate was in the low 60s.The drop is skewed some because of the disproportionate weighting the financials had. Kaupthing alone was in the mid 30s. It looks as though Kaupthing, Landsbanki and Glitnir never traded (they all were nationalized one way or another) and so appear to just be gone from the index. The fishery index, made ...

Key Points: Urea prices fell by more than $70 in late September A strike is helping to support potash prices Some analysts are raising 2009 earnings forecasts Highlighted stocks include AGU, CF, MOS, POT and TRA

Fears that fertilizer companies could be losing pricing power sent their shares tumbling late last week.

The primary cause was a sharp drop in urea prices. A report published last Thursday on Farm Futures revealed a $70 decline in Black Sea prices over the previous 2 weeks. (Ammonia prices were weaker as well.)

Urea is a key ingredient used in fertilizer. Traders are concerned that the recent drop is an early signal of slipping demand for fertilizer. Any weakness would call into question fourth-quarter and 2009 profit forecasts for Agrium (AGU), CF Industries (CF), Mosaic (MOS), Potash of Saskatchewan (POT) and Terra Industries (TRA).

It is possible that some farmers are choosing

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by Edward Hugh: Barcelona India's growth rate fell back in the second calendar quarter of 2008 (and the first quarter of the 2008/09 financial year), expanding at the slowest rate recorded in three years, as the Reserve Bank of India struggles to control record high inflation by applying tight credit conditions. Annual growth slowed to 7.9 per cent in the quarter of 2008 which ended on June 30, significantly lower than the 8.8 per cent rate reported for the January to March quarter. Growth momentum has obviously been slowing on tighter monetary policy and the adverse global environment. Higher interest rates, slower bank credit growth and higher oil and commodity prices are evidently now having a marked effect on activity levels in the Indian economy. However, in spite of the slowdown, the growth rate of Asia’s third largest economy remains strong, and there are very positive signs ...

India's inflation remained well above the central bank's comfort level for the sixth straight month towards the end of August, increasing the likelihood that incoming Governor Duvvuri Subbarao will continue to raise interest rates. Wholesale prices were up by an annual 12.34 percent in the week ended August 23, according to the latest data from the Indian commerce ministry said in New Delhi. That compared with a 12.4 percent gain in the previous week.Subbarao, whose three-year term at the Reserve Bank of India starts this weekend is under some pressure to show that he is independent and no less concerned about inflation than his predecessor, and is quoted as saying that the "obvious" answer to surging prices is tighter monetary policy. Outgoing Governor Yaga Venugopal Reddy increased the central bank's benchmark rate three times between June and the end of August, ...