Even knowing that the economy is in a recession/depression, it is the kind of headline that grabs your attention: “Recession Worse Than Prior Estimates, Revisions Show” by Bob Willis at Bloomberg.com. “The first 12 months of the US recession,” he writes, “saw the economy shrink more than twice as much as previously estimated, reflecting even bigger declines in consumer spending and housing, revised figures showed.”

By this time I am losing interest, as I suspected as much, and would have been surprised if things had turned out otherwise. I say this with a certain haughty-yet-snotty attitude because the Austrian school of economics is so easy to grasp, so intuitively correct and now so provably correct, that it is easy to anticipate the long-term when a central bank is creating excessive amounts of money and credit, especially when the majority of it is used to expand government spending. Child’s play!

So seeing the

...

Corrections Corporation of America (...

A couple of disappointments in this week's data.

New claims for unemployment insurance have peaked just before the end of each of the last half-dozen recessions.

Black line: 4-week average of seasonally adjusted weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, from Department of Labor via Webstract. Shaded areas correspond to recessions as judged by the National Bureau of Economic Research.

Unfortunately, the Labor Department reported today that seasonally adjusted new claims for unemployment insurance rose by 32,000 for the most recent available week. That bumps the 4-week average to 630,000, up 6,000 from its value the previous week, though the average is still below its peak of 659,000 reported April 9. That the downward trajectory will resume next week is far from clear.

Black line: seasonally adjusted weekly new claims for unemployment insurance from January 1 through May 14, ...

Some good news, some bad, in the indicators we follow this week.

First, the bad news. Monthly sales for retail and food services, which had been up a bit in January and February, fell 1.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis between February and March, leaving the first quarter 8.8% below 2008:Q1. That's a particularly discouraging development, since given the cyclical behavior of the other components of GDP, it's hard to envision a recovery without an upswing in consumer spending.

Source: FRED.

On the other hand, new claims for unemployment compensation were reported today to have fallen by 53,000 in the week ending April 11, bringing the 4-week average down by 8,500 from what the revised numbers show to have been the recent peak the week before. If April 4 ultimately proves to be the peak for the

...

Advanced ID Corp. (AIDO.OB) is a complete solutions provider in the radio frequency identification (RFID) market. The company provides products for positive identification of both inanimate objects for supply chain applications and companion animals for tracing and recovery purposes.

AIDO uses low frequency radio waves for companion animal recovery and is the 2nd largest player in the Canadian market for these services with an estimated 40% market share. The company is also involved in ultra high frequency RFID for tires. AIDO provides lifetime IDs for tires that can be used for inventory purposes, tire recalls, etc.

AIDO continues to expand its product line. The company’s tracking systems are being tested by major companies in the vehicle ID, pharmaceutical, food services, retail, and document management industries. In addition, the company has introduced two new tire maintenance products that position AIDO as an industry leader in tire diagnostics. Revenues for this business line are

...

By William Patalon III Executive Editor Money Morning/The Money Map Report Although consumers and businesses have gotten a bit of a reprieve at the gas pump as of late, the escalation in oil prices we’ve seen over the past year has led to some major changes in overall consumer behavior. Many car-owners have dumped their gas-guzzling pickup trucks and SUVs at the nearest used-car lot and used the proceeds to buy some gas-sipping rides. Companies with large distribution networks have redesigned their shipping schedules, crafting more efficient routes that accommodated larger truckloads. The upshot: Gasoline sales tumbled during the first half of the year as domestic demand fell to its lowest level in five years.  In fact, the U.S. Department of Transportation reported that Americans drove almost 5% less in June than a year ago, and also said that the buses, subways ...

Article Source: Consumers say they're gloomy, but why are they still spending? A surprising report from the Commerce Department today, which indicated that seasonally adjusted nominal sales for retail trade and food services were 1% higher in May compared with April. The new estimates of March and April sales (in red in the figure below) were also revised substantially up from the previous (blue) estimates that had been reported last month. Source: ALFRED Although a 1% monthly gain would translate into a 12% annual rate if maintained, the newly revised April numbers are still barely above the values last November in nominal terms. Calculated Risk notes that the year-on-year comparisons, when adjusted using an anticipated PCE deflator, remain negative even with the strong new estimates. Source: Calculated Risk The latest numbers ...