The September edition of Donald Coxe’s Basic Points research report (subtitled “Dem Blues”) has just been published. His investment recommendations, as summarized in this document, are listed in the paragraphs below, but I do recommend you also read the full report at the bottom of the post. (Also note that Donald’s weekly webcasts can be accessed from the sidebar of the Investment Postcards site.)

1. Upgrade equity portfolios to reduce endogenous risk. Trade upward in quality, and, in balanced accounts, increase bond exposure. There is, at present, too much froth for comfort. After the grandest recession /recovery stock market rally on record, this is hardly a good time to commit new money into equities.

2. Emphasize Canadian stocks in North American portfolios. Canada has the best banks, and the best range of commodity-oriented stocks. And it has the best North American currency.

3. Continue to overweight commodity-oriented

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It’s become widely accepted when talking about emerging economies to focus on the so-called BRIC countries - Brazil, Russia, India and China. But there is a very important region that gets lost in that discussion.

And it’s a region that holds the key to growth opportunities that could eclipse the growth in the BRIC countries.

In fact, this region collectively has a bigger economy than Brazil, Russia or India already. And in terms of growth, it is growing faster than any of these countries. In terms of population, it’s bigger than the U.S. and nearly as populous the EU. It holds 60% of the world’s proven oil reserves and nearly half of its natural gas.

That last clue probably gives it away. I’m talking about the Middle East and North Africa, or MENA.

Among its largest economies are Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

In one of my presentations at Agora Financial’s 10th Annual

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Use Your “Bean” to Profit

Tony Daltorio, The Investment U Research Team

At times it is extremely easy to make money in the financial markets. All it takes is a bit of common sense and using your head – your “bean”.

For instance, there is a basic truism – people need to eat. Yet investors, including many on Wall Street, ignore that truism and go off in search of the next trendy hot technology stock or unproven miracle stock.

Perhaps they think people can exist simply on their Blackberry or iPhone and no longer to eat food.

I am here to tell you that people still do indeed eat food, lots of it, every day. After a year about worrying about their piggy bank, some alert investors are turning their attention again to the cupboard. And, oh my, the cupboard

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Rice rationing redux?  Chris Mayer on the return of rising food prices… Dan Amoss on what the Fed says versus what the Fed does… Russia sings dollar’s praises, dollar bulls stampede… Chuck Butler looks past the rhetoric… China’s latest resource grab… Iraqi oil… America’s best-selling car… with an MSRP of $60…

We begin a new week pondering the question that bedevils the conscientious market observer every day.Inflation? Deflation? Or as Agora founder Bill Bonner is wont to suggest, both?

“Inflation – rising prices, or a drop in the purchasing power of the dollar – will soon rise to the very top of economic concerns,” writes Chris Mayer. “I can’t understand why there are pundits who insist we can’t have inflation while the economy is weak. There are plenty of examples of weak economies with high inflation. After all, I don’t think they are hitting on

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Tighter credit for farmers could worsen a global food crisis as smaller crop sizes cause prices to soar. Many farmers have traditionally bought pre-season supplies such as seeds and fertilizer on credit and then paid off the debt with the proceeds from the year’s harvest. But with a growing number of farmers unable to obtain the credit they need, crop yields will suffer.

Global wheat production will likely be 4.4% less next year, Dan Basse, president of AgResource Co. in Chicago, told Bloomberg News. Basse believes the world’s corn and soybean crops will also see declines.

“The credit situation is worrying even the biggest and best farmers,” Brian Willot, a former University of Missouri commodity analyst who now grows soybeans in Brazil, told Bloomberg. “For the financially weak, credit has dried up completely. For the strong, credit has been delayed and interest rates are

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Tighter credit for farmers could worsen a global food crisis as smaller crop sizes cause prices to soar. Many farmers have traditionally bought pre-season supplies such as seeds and fertilizer on credit and then paid off the debt with the proceeds from the year’s harvest. But with a growing number of farmers unable to obtain the credit they need, crop yields will suffer. Global wheat production will likely be 4.4% less next year, Dan Basse, president of AgResource Co. in Chicago, told Bloomberg News. Basse believes the world’s corn and soybean crops will also see declines. “The credit situation is worrying even the biggest and best farmers,” Brian Willot, a former University of Missouri commodity analyst who now grows soybeans in Brazil, told Bloomberg. “For the financially weak, credit has dried up completely. For the strong, credit has been delayed and ...

Another down market last week. Trying to find long candidates in a market like this is tough to say the least. Selling short was pretty easy last two weeks, as it seemed just about everything was going down. There has been some bull winner’s longer term. The agriculture sector stocks have done real well this last fifty two weeks. I don’t like chasing prices so I have not been in on the big bull run of this sector, until now.

After scanning the charts, up popped on my radar, a low risk high reward trade, on a basic materials company providing key ingredients to create fertilizer. I’m personally involved in the agriculture industry somewhat, and have done much research as to what the future holds for this industry. I’m a bull long term on this industry for two main reasons. The ongoing global food crisis, and the fact that the emerging …

We've been on this beat for a long time, but more and more the world is waking up to the crisis ahead. We need higher yields, immediately - worldwide. And will continue to need higher yields to support all these humans coming online, especially the ones moving to middle class. [Apr 30: Finally, a Year Late Fertilizer Hits the Front Page of the NYTimes] ... again, I state this planet is not well suited for 6.5 Billion people unless 4.5 Billion live in abject poverty. The more wealth in this world and the more people move from poverty to "middle class" (we wouldn't call it that necessarily in the US), the more strains on the globe. We will have crisis after crisis until/if/when technological breakthroughs happen... but I believe the next 1-10 years will be fraught with crisis after crisis as world governments ...

Why is oil going high and going higher? Well, basically, the world economy is growing at 4%. The world oil supply is flat or growing — at most — 1%. The world economy runs on oil. And that’s a recipe for higher oil prices.

Here is a movie you might want to check out …

And here’s another one. I don’t know if they’re really making a movie of Kunstler’s book, but the book is great. Here’s a movie trailer … maybe it’s just an ad for the book?

Quote for the day ……

I’m long 5,000 bushels of corn in the futures market. I bought the contract at $6.22 (a bushel), near corn’s record high price.

Why? Because I’m expecting the price of corn to more than double in the next 18 months, to well over $12 a bushel. And I’ll be adding more corn to my portfolio when I see the next buy point.

I plan on buying soybean futures, too. Currently trading at just under $13 a bushel, I expect soybean prices to eventually climb to more than $25 a bushel, doubling in price.

And that’s just the beginning!

Other foods on my radar screen include …

Cocoa, which has enormous upside potential as hundreds of millions in …